Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

j-ragg · Post #1061 » by **j-ragg** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:19 am

Sac wins... Skal has like 32 & 11.

DiplomaticMagic · Post #1062 » by **DiplomaticMagic** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:22 am

j-ragg wrote:Skal looks like a really good prospect every time I watch him. Great value for where he slipped.

I wanted him with our pick last year, was shocked when he slipped as far as he did.

shadrock · Post #1063 » by **shadrock** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:27 am

Bit gutted Phoenix didn't win but I can live with it. The risk of dropping to 5th is more to worry about than the chance of getting to 3rd.

DiplomaticMagic · Post #1064 » by **DiplomaticMagic** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:58 am

At least we have a nice cushion vs Kings and Knicks. Need to separate ourselves from Philly.

Gomagic44 · Post #1065 » by **Gomagic44** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:05 am

DiplomaticMagic wrote:
j-ragg wrote:Skal looks like a really good prospect every time I watch him. Great value for where he slipped.

I wanted him with our pick last year, was shocked when he slipped as far as he did.

It's a good thing we didn't draft him and traded for Ibaka instead. There is no reason we should question our gm. After 5 years of losing our star, we are progressing well. Organically you could say. We would be no better with any other pick than the pick we could have made at the time. Anything else is hindsight. That's not the general managers responsibility!All of our picks are about to erupt, Just wait till they are old enough. Just wait until we have a competent coach. Just wait until Vuc gets his robin. Just wait till Payton gets his shot. Just wait till Aaron Gordon becomes a capable offensive basketball player. Just wait until other players and agents see the favors we did for Frye, Harrington, Nelson, Howard etc.. we are so good to our players! Don't you see the talent begging to sign here?

\s

We are a mess and anyone who has a positive view of this franchise at the moment is delusional in my opinion. I actually believed all that crap I wrote. But I won't anymore. Fire everyone. Trade everyone. We are worse off than any team that was as bad off as we were 5 years ago. Etc etc.

I haven't watched a game in months. By the look of the forums, I'm not alone.

I won't spend a dollar on this franchise again until they give me a product worth purchasing. "So sad, low energy." This has been a nostalgic time being a diehard the last 5 years, but I'm fading fast.

This probobly wasn't the best thread for this. But I just finished the first quarter and as Skal was balling I checked the thread and the last comment was about skals stellar game.

I'm very hopeless at the moment concerning my beloved magic.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

crazytown · Post #1066 » by **crazytown** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:53 am

Bledsoe out for the season. Suns blatantly tanking now :nonono:

Post #1067 » by **SOUL** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:58 am

Sad to watch teams shut down players and play all of their youth while we're actually still trying to win with veterans eating up big minutes still, luckily they're the ones that are sucking the most.

At least those team's fans appreciate their younger playing well and don't point out every negative about them. Wonder when our fans will do the same.

Furinkazan · Post #1068 » by **Furinkazan** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:22 am

wow this is disgusting shutting down players is simply mocking NBA as a product and mocking fans..
NBA needs to change this tanking system... im speachless
horrible when a team after team is shutting down healthy players... this should be prevented somehow

Post #1069 » by **SOUL** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:32 am

~Snoopy~ wrote:wow this is disgusting shutting down players is simply mocking NBA as a product and mocking fans..
NBA needs to change this tanking system... im speachless
horrible when a team after team is shutting down healthy players... this should be prevented somehow

I can see veterans like Chandler but Bledsoe is somebody you should play if healthy.. he's still young too.

Jiwol · Post #1070 » by **Jiwol** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:19 am

On the 10th try. It looks like the Lakers have like 40-50% chance of dropping out of top three which is fine with me.

pepe1991 · Post #1071 » by **pepe1991** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:49 am

~Snoopy~ wrote:wow this is disgusting shutting down players is simply mocking NBA as a product and mocking fans..
NBA needs to change this tanking system... im speachless
horrible when a team after team is shutting down healthy players... this should be prevented somehow

That's why it's hard to evaluate talent right now. Half of a teams roll with second round picks ,bench warmers, d league players and scrubs.

Do you know why Batum missed last game' ? Because he had migraine :lol:

Ducklett · Post #1072 » by **Ducklett** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:58 am

pepe1991 wrote:
~Snoopy~ wrote:wow this is disgusting shutting down players is simply mocking NBA as a product and mocking fans..
NBA needs to change this tanking system... im speachless
horrible when a team after team is shutting down healthy players... this should be prevented somehow

That's why it's hard to evaluate talent right now. Half of a teams roll with second round picks ,bench warmers, d league players and scrubs.

Do you know why Batum missed last game' ? Because he had migraine

That is in bad form dude, they are going to run brain scans because of the severity...

Nemesis21 · Post #1073 » by **Nemesis21** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Shut down everybody!!! Lakers shut down Deng and Mozgov and now the Suns shut down Bledsoe. F8** DeVos and Martins! Tank this mofo!

Furinkazan · Post #1074 » by **Furinkazan** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:53 am

Jiwol wrote:

On the 10th try. It looks like the Lakers have like 40-50% chance of dropping out of top three which is fine with me.

meh most time I run it we end up 6th which I woudnt mind ONLY if we picked DSJ as it projects

Post #1075 » by **Bensational** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:07 pm

SOUL wrote:Sad to watch teams shut down players and play all of their youth while we're actually still trying to win with veterans eating up big minutes still, luckily they're the ones that are sucking the most.

At least those team's fans appreciate their younger playing well and don't point out every negative about them. Wonder when our fans will do the same.

What's most frustrating is that Mario looks like he's earned his time. He's playing hard and playing well. No reason he shouldn't be the first guy off the bench and running 30mpg as a 6th man.

The silver lining is our vets are helping us in the long run.

BadMofoPimp · Post #1076 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:08 pm

It doesn't matter where the Magic end up, the Lakers, Brooklyn and Sixers will be gifted the 1st 3 spots and the Magic will draft 5th.

AddiFB · Post #1077 » by **AddiFB** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:57 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:It doesn't matter where the Magic end up, the Lakers, Brooklyn and Sixers will be gifted the 1st 3 spots and the Magic will draft 5th.

7th. I smell 7th.

dsg2021 · Post #1078 » by **dsg2021** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:10 pm

My humble lottery reform idea was to make a two tier percent chance system with the same 1st-3rd lottery picks as now. It is super simple but surprisingly nuanced enough to cover all the bases.

Spoiler:

The lower half of the lottery teams get about a 9.5% chance at the 1st pick, 9.5% chance at 2nd pick, and 9.5% chance at 3rd pick. So, they only have a 9.5% chance at the top pick, but, a 25.5% chance at a top 3 pick. And thats the same for the 30th seed team as the 24th seed team.

Its a serious incentive not to tank higher than 7th worst in the league. Huge difference than wanting to tank up to the 1st and most worst record in the league.

The upper half of the lottery teams (the ones missing out on the playoffs) get about a 5.0% chance at the 1st pick, 5.0% chance at 2nd pick, and 5.0% chance at 3rd pick. So, they only have a 5.0% chance at the top pick, but, a 15% chance at a top 3 pick. And thats the same for the 17th seed team as the 23rd seed team.

So the teams that scratched and fought at a playoff spot but just missed out by 1-3 spots are not punished with the worst lottery records, but a quite nice 15% shot at landing one of the 1st-3rd lottery picks.
15% chance is also not high enough for a team that hates to be Round 1 fodder, it's a 15% versus getting playoff experience under the belt proposition. Might as well fight for the playoffs and try fighting out of Round 1.

The only true complexity is a rule where a team who repeats as 8th to ~9th worst for 2 to ~3 straight seasons gets to jump up to the top tier chance by making a bottom 8-ish tier with an upper 8th-17th tier. This rule helps alleviate teams fighting to tank to bottom 7. So if your projecting as 9th worst, you might as well fight for a playoff spot since you're not too far off (and if you keep getting unlucky at 8th to 9th worst every summer, you'll actually get into the top tier chance by special rule.)

All of a sudden, veterans like Bledsoe, Deng and Mozgov are playing games hard, trying to build chemistry and wins since the bottom 7 record window is probably at anything not higher than 30-35 wins.
And the teams who feel cursed/stupid to strive from the 9th pick to the playoffs just to end up 12th pick instead of tanking to 6th don't have that kind of situation anymore at all!

The last complexity I would add is ratifying a new lotto system in one summer but not changing over to it for like at least 4-5 years. Any lotto team today (Lakers, Magic and, Celtics via Nets) is not interested in worsening their lotto chances on purpose, they have to think they can get out of the lottery when it changes over.

Interesting alternative #1: Same as original reform idea, but once the top 3 picks are gambled away, lock the two tiers and gamble the remaining lottery spots on an equal chance within each tier. This removes total incentive to get the worst record and get the 4th lotto pick for sure at least.
Interesting alternative #2: Same as original reform idea, but gamble for the 1st to ~5th lottery pick instead of the top 1-3 picks.

rcklsscognition · Post #1079 » by **rcklsscognition** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:13 pm

It is most likely we wind up 6th which sucks. Hopefully the new GM is currently scouting prospects.

Nemesis21 · Post #1080 » by **Nemesis21** » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:38 pm

We'll lose to GSW tonight, hopefully the Mavs beat Philly tomorrow. 2 L's on back to back vs GSW tonight and PHX tomorrow would be nice.