Chuma Okeke drafted #16 by the Orlando Magic

[Xatticus]

Just for fun...

CARMELO 5-year market value projections:
Evan Fournier - $35.1M
Terrence Ross - $39.2M
Nickeil Alexander-Walker - $48.9M

Chuma Okeke: $69.1M

Nikola Vucevic: $162.2M
Aaron Gordon: $147.8M
Jonathan Isaac: $95.8M
Markelle Fultz: $88.5M
Al-Farouq Aminu: $47.4M
Khem Birch: $24.4M
Michael Carter-Williams: $22.3M
Mo Bamba: $17.4M
DJ Augustin: $15.3M
Wes Iwundu: $6.9M

Yeah... the point is that you can't really use CARMELO to argue that Okeke was a better pick than NAW and at the same time argue that NAW wasn't needed because we already have Ross and Fournier.

[ezzzp]

Just for fun...

CARMELO 5-year market value projections:
Evan Fournier - $35.1M
Terrence Ross - $39.2M
Nickeil Alexander-Walker - $48.9M

Chuma Okeke: $69.1M

Nikola Vucevic: $162.2M
Aaron Gordon: $147.8M
Jonathan Isaac: $95.8M
Markelle Fultz: $88.5M
Al-Farouq Aminu: $47.4M
Khem Birch: $24.4M
Michael Carter-Williams: $22.3M
Mo Bamba: $17.4M
DJ Augustin: $15.3M
Wes Iwundu: $6.9M

Yeah... the point is that you can't really use CARMELO to argue that Okeke was a better pick than NAW and at the same time argue that NAW wasn't needed because we already have Ross and Fournier.

Yes you can...look at the CARMELO projection for next season:

NAW -0.1 vs

Fournier +1.0
Ross +1.2
Gordon +3.5
Isaac +1.5
Aminu +1.8
Fultz +0.4
DJ +0.6
MCW +0.4

NAW's projection has him below everyone in the PG/SG/SF rotation except Iwundu (who is likely out of the rotation with the addition of Aminu).

In 20-21 Okeke will be back and he projects as the better long term pick in CARMELO.

[Xatticus]

Chuma Okeke: $69.1M

Nikola Vucevic: $162.2M
Aaron Gordon: $147.8M
Jonathan Isaac: $95.8M
Markelle Fultz: $88.5M
Al-Farouq Aminu: $47.4M
Khem Birch: $24.4M
Michael Carter-Williams: $22.3M
Mo Bamba: $17.4M
DJ Augustin: $15.3M
Wes Iwundu: $6.9M

Yeah... the point is that you can't really use CARMELO to argue that Okeke was a better pick than NAW and at the same time argue that NAW wasn't needed because we already have Ross and Fournier.

Yes you can...look at the CARMELO projection for next season:

NAW -0.1 vs

Fournier +1.0
Ross +1.2
Gordon +3.5
Isaac +1.5
Aminu +1.8
Fultz +0.4
DJ +0.6
MCW +0.4

NAW's projection has him below everyone in the PG/SG/SF rotation except Iwundu (who is likely out of the rotation with the addition of Aminu).

In 20-21 Okeke will be back and he projects as the better long term pick in CARMELO.

I must've missed the memo. Is the world ending in 2020?

[ezzzp]

Yeah... the point is that you can't really use CARMELO to argue that Okeke was a better pick than NAW and at the same time argue that NAW wasn't needed because we already have Ross and Fournier.

Yes you can...look at the CARMELO projection for next season:

NAW -0.1 vs

Fournier +1.0
Ross +1.2
Gordon +3.5
Isaac +1.5
Aminu +1.8
Fultz +0.4
DJ +0.6
MCW +0.4

NAW's projection has him below everyone in the PG/SG/SF rotation except Iwundu (who is likely out of the rotation with the addition of Aminu).

In 20-21 Okeke will be back and he projects as the better long term pick in CARMELO.

I must've missed the memo. Is the world ending in 2020?

Clearly you missed something, because the argument is that NAW would be able to help the Magic this season.

If you are talking long term, then the BPA was Okeke according to CARMELO (and Kevin Pelton's draft projection model as well).

Even if you extend it to 2021, Fournier +0.7 and Ross +1.0 are still above NAW (+0.6)

[Xatticus]

Yes you can...look at the CARMELO projection for next season:

NAW -0.1 vs

Fournier +1.0
Ross +1.2
Gordon +3.5
Isaac +1.5
Aminu +1.8
Fultz +0.4
DJ +0.6
MCW +0.4

NAW's projection has him below everyone in the PG/SG/SF rotation except Iwundu (who is likely out of the rotation with the addition of Aminu).

In 20-21 Okeke will be back and he projects as the better long term pick in CARMELO.

I must've missed the memo. Is the world ending in 2020?

Clearly you missed something, because the argument is that NAW would be able to help the Magic this season.

If you are talking long term, then the BPA was Okeke according to CARMELO (and Kevin Pelton's draft projection model as well).

Even if you extend it to 2021, Fournier +0.7 and Ross +1.0 are still above NAW (+0.6)

No. Quite clearly you are missing something.

You've argued that based on CARMELO, Okeke was the BPA. This is really dubious, but... okay. You've also argued that we didn't need NAW because we have Ross and Fournier, even though CARMELO clearly forecasts that we have two PFs with more long-term value than Okeke and zero SGs with more long-term value than NAW. Does CARMELO forecast Okeke to have more value than either of Isaac or Gordon in any of the next five seasons? No.

It's sort of like arguing that Okeke's management did a wonderful job of securing him more money (even though he will miss a full year of prime earning potential) by securing a significantly higher draft slot, while also arguing that Orlando got a steal and the BPA.

Or it's like arguing that Vucevic's return wasn't a foregone conclusion and that half the league might've signed him after devoting so much energy to arguing why nobody else would be interested in him and that Orlando was the best fit for Vucevic before free agency opened.

These are examples of cognitive dissonance. You can believe whatever you want to believe, but you're going to get called out if keep changing your arguments or rebutting your own logic.

[ezzzp]

I must've missed the memo. Is the world ending in 2020?

Clearly you missed something, because the argument is that NAW would be able to help the Magic this season.

If you are talking long term, then the BPA was Okeke according to CARMELO (and Kevin Pelton's draft projection model as well).

Even if you extend it to 2021, Fournier +0.7 and Ross +1.0 are still above NAW (+0.6)

No. Quite clearly you are missing something.

You've argued that based on CARMELO, Okeke was the BPA. This is really dubious, but... okay. You've also argued that we didn't need NAW because we have Ross and Fournier, even though CARMELO clearly forecasts that we have two PFs with more long-term value than Okeke and zero SGs with more long-term value than NAW. Does CARMELO forecast Okeke to have more value than either of Isaac or Gordon in any of the next five seasons? No.

It's sort of like arguing that Okeke's management did a wonderful job of securing him more money (even though he will miss a full year of prime earning potential) by securing a significantly higher draft slot, while also arguing that Orlando got a steal and the BPA.

Or it's like arguing that Vucevic's return wasn't a foregone conclusion and that half the league might've signed him after devoting so much energy to arguing why nobody else would be interested in him and that Orlando was the best fit for Vucevic before free agency opened.

These are examples of cognitive dissonance. You can believe whatever you want to believe, but you're going to get called out if keep changing your arguments or rebutting your own logic.

Wrong, you are the one that is missing something...yet again...and as usual you start attacking the stat source when it doesn't align with what your bias is.

Does Gordon have a contract with the Magic in 5 seasons? NO he doesn't, he'll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2022...Aminu can opt out the year before that and is unrestricted the same year as Gordon; Fournier - who eats up a big chunk of SF minutes - also hits free agency as early as next summer.

That's if there isn't a trade beforehand, which sure does look like that's what the FO is setting up depending on how the roster responds this season.

Its comical how the anti-Vuc people like you are now trying to re-write the narrative to say that his re-signing was a certainty, when every day leading up to free agency that group was insisting that Sacramento, Dallas, LAC, LAL, Boston, etc were going to sign him and that there was no way the Magic FO would pay him what those teams could.

...lmao if you want to see what cognitive dissonance looks like, just stare in the mirror and go read your own comments.

...and its not just CARMELO that projects Okeke higher...Kevin Pelton's draft model does as well - had him as 8th best...The Stepien had him higher than NAW...the top draft guys like Jonathan Givony and Brian Schmidtz also were super high on Okeke...etc etc etc

[VFX]

Carmelo player projections

NAW-
D. Mitchell
Gary Harris

Okeke-
Rondae Hollis Jefferson
James Johnson

I know which I’d rather want for this current squad.

[Knightro]

I can buy a healthy Okeke being a better prospect than NAW. I personally had them ranked very close.

But even I can admit that Okeke doesn't make a huge amount of sense for the Magic as the roster presently stands... unless the plan is to inevitably trade Gordon or Isaac for a guard in a year.

I still think that's a real possibility for what it's worth.

[SOUL]

I can buy a healthy Okeke being a better prospect than NAW. I personally had them ranked very close.

But even I can admit that Okeke doesn't make a huge amount of sense for the Magic as the roster presently stands... unless the plan is to inevitably trade Gordon or Isaac for a guard in a year.

I still think that's a real possibility for what it's worth.

Every first round pick (especially non-lottery) isn't a replacement for any incumbent starter, that's where these discussions get off on the wrong foot. We start looking where NAW or Okeke is going to replace somebody instead of realizing that only happens naturally through play or a huge shift in team philosophy (ie: tanking or going young). And the theory of "Well, you clearly choose a player who is the most talented at the least talented position that you have." We did that with Vuc (not talent wise the worst on our team, being Vuc, just the position that had the longest tenured player that has worn out his welcome) and Bamba when Vuc showed he was hitting a wall and his contract was expiring, literally the perfect recipe to replace someone, and he took his game to another level. Now we're considered too big man heavy.

Ideally, a 1st round draft pick is going to be a future replacement somewhere down the line, but it shouldn't be looked at like that. Any way you look at it, DJ/Fournier/Ross and now a healthy Fultz was going to get most of the minutes at the 1/2 spot, and Vuc/Bamba/Isaac/Gordon/Aminu at the 3-5 spot, so both players were not going to get many minutes thrown at them no matter how you look at it. You can even say a healthy Okeke may have pushed away an Aminu signing and given him more potential minutes at the backup forward spots.

The front office's job is never to make a pick based on the roster as it currently stands, unless you're a contending team that needs 1 or 2 missing pieces, and still, I very much doubt those teams are looking at the draft for those immediate needs, it's still future.

The real question is, was NAW a legitimate guard prospect that we never should've passed on, someone that we cannot duplicate in a FA signing or draft pick next year? It remains to be seen, but these roster composition arguments (not accusing you of it, just in general) are tired and shortsighted.

[Knightro]

Every first round pick (especially non-lottery) isn't a replacement for any incumbent starter, that's where these discussions get off on the wrong foot. We start looking where NAW or Okeke is going to replace somebody instead of realizing that only happens naturally through play or a huge shift in team philosophy (ie: tanking or going young). And the theory of "Well, you clearly choose a player who is the most talented at the least talented position that you have." We did that with Vuc (not talent wise the worst on our team, being Vuc, just the position that had the longest tenured player that has worn out his welcome) and Bamba when Vuc showed he was hitting a wall and his contract was expiring, literally the perfect recipe to replace someone, and he took his game to another level. Now we're considered too big man heavy.

Ideally, a 1st round draft pick is going to be a future replacement somewhere down the line, but it shouldn't be looked at like that. Any way you look at it, DJ/Fournier/Ross and now a healthy Fultz was going to get most of the minutes at the 1/2 spot, and Vuc/Bamba/Isaac/Gordon/Aminu at the 3-5 spot, so both players were not going to get many minutes thrown at them no matter how you look at it. You can even say a healthy Okeke may have pushed away an Aminu signing and given him more potential minutes at the backup forward spots.

The front office's job is never to make a pick based on the roster as it currently stands, unless you're a contending team that needs 1 or 2 missing pieces, and still, I very much doubt those teams are looking at the draft for those immediate needs, it's still future.

The real question is, was NAW a legitimate guard prospect that we never should've passed on, someone that we cannot duplicate in a FA signing or draft pick next year? It remains to be seen, but these roster composition arguments (not accusing you of it, just in general) are tired and shortsighted.

Two things.

1. I agree with you that a player drafted at 16 isn't a replacement for an incumbent starter.

2. I wasn't arguing it was.

But facts are facts and if you look at the Magic's roster...

Gordon is signed for 3 more years.
Isaac is under control for at least 3 more years.
Aminu is signed for 3 more years.

And it's already been determined that Okeke isn't playing *at all* in the NBA this year, so he's that much further behind the 8-ball.

Given that all three of those guys are natural power forwards, same as Okeke, the case could be made that there's not a legitimate path for Okeke to see regular minutes in 20-21 *or* 21-22 as the roster stands right now.

At least with NAW, you have Augustin and Carter-Williams as free agents at the end of the season and Fournier with the ability to opt out of his contract after the season.

Whether NAW would be a heavy contributor or not *this* season (I don't think he would have) isn't really that important. I know I'm coming at this from a roster composition over a multi-year period perspective.

[SOUL]

Yep, not necessarily accusing you either, just was venting while quoting your post ! I agree there, a path to more minutes from this last draft certainly makes more sense for NAW in the future/near future, but teams can move any player so easily nowadays that if, say, Okeke was that good and outplaying either Isaac or Gordon, neither AG or JI would be impossible to move.

I only worry on a talent basis alone. If NAW simply turns out to be a great player and Okeke just meh, I will be frustrated because obviously we could've taken him AND it was a good fit/made more sense short term, but it really wouldn't bother me other than on a talent basis alone, because if Okeke turns out to be a better pro than NAW, nobody is going to be like "Ugh, still a bad pick, we should've went with the need regardless!"

[ezzzp]

Carmelo player projections

NAW-
D. Mitchell
Gary Harris

Okeke-
Rondae Hollis Jefferson
James Johnson

I know which I’d rather want for this current squad.

Yea exactly the same:



That similarity feature isn't saying that NAW projects to be like Donavon Mitchell.

Its saying that NAW's 2019 profile had a 69% similarity to Donovan Mitchell's 2018/pre-NBA profile...BUT his profile also had a 67% similarity to Elliot Williams...a 66% similarity to Shannon Brown etc etc...

[pepe1991]

I find it really confusing what makes you think that Okeke is superior prospect to Alexander-Walker.
Both didn't do much in year one at college, but Okeke did less.
Both had good second years, but NAW scored more and stil had almost identical efficiency numbers.

From transition and translating game to NBA , one is 6'5, 205 pounds guard with solid size for his position (SG), other is undersized, 6'8 PF.

And just for extra bonus, one has torn ACL, other is healthy.

And even from Orlando's POV, drafting guard over another tweener at forwrad position made more sense, but as i said , i think only reason they drafted Okeke is because they knew they won't need to pay him right away.

[ezzzp]

I find it really confusing what makes you think that Okeke is superior prospect to Alexander-Walker.
Both didn't do much in year one at college, but Okeke did less.
Both had good second years, but NAW scored more and stil had almost identical efficiency numbers.

From transition and translating game to NBA , one is 6'5, 205 pounds guard with solid size for his position (SG), other is undersized, 6'8 PF.

And just for extra bonus, one has torn ACL, other is healthy.

And even from Orlando's POV, drafting guard over another tweener at forwrad position made more sense, but as i said , i think only reason they drafted Okeke is because they knew they won't need to pay him right away.

I find it confusing why you ignore the advanced stats.





...and 6'5 is not "solid" size for SG...he's 2 inches smaller than both Fournier and Ross...big wings/forwards are going to eat him alive and seek him out on switches.

...and Okeke is not undersized...he is a 6'8 230lb versatile forward (aka can play both SF and PF) with already a solid frame and a 7' wingspan who can defend 2-4.

Its ridiculous to say they only picked him to avoid luxury tax. Signing Okeke doesn't put the Magic over the luxury tax...its filling the 15th optional roster spot that does. AND even if they did sign that 15th player it would only put them over by a measly $40k anyhow.

The FO picked who they thought the BPA was.

[pepe1991]

I find it really confusing what makes you think that Okeke is superior prospect to Alexander-Walker.
Both didn't do much in year one at college, but Okeke did less.
Both had good second years, but NAW scored more and stil had almost identical efficiency numbers.

From transition and translating game to NBA , one is 6'5, 205 pounds guard with solid size for his position (SG), other is undersized, 6'8 PF.

And just for extra bonus, one has torn ACL, other is healthy.

And even from Orlando's POV, drafting guard over another tweener at forwrad position made more sense, but as i said , i think only reason they drafted Okeke is because they knew they won't need to pay him right away.

I find it confusing why you ignore the advanced stats.





...and 6'5 is not "solid" size for SG...he's 2 inches smaller than both Fournier and Ross...big wings/forwards are going to eat him alive and seek him out on switches.

...and Okeke is not undersized...he is a 6'8 230lb versatile forward (aka can play both SF and PF) with already a solid frame and a 7' wingspan who can defend 2-4.

Its ridiculous to say they only picked him to avoid luxury tax. Signing Okeke doesn't put the Magic over the luxury tax...its filling the 15th optional roster spot that does. AND even if they did sign that 15th player it would only put them over by a measly $40k anyhow.

The FO picked who they thought the BPA was.

So PF has 1,1% better TS% than SG and that's somehow key factor here ?
I hope you know that TS% in nba for SGs is around 54% and for PFs is almost 57% , and i'm pretty sure similar co-relation in TS is in nba, so actually , in that perception NAW actually is above average in efficiency ( if you compare his TS to NBA's SGs TS% ) and Okeke is just bit above average.

Its ridiculous to say they only picked him to avoid luxury tax. Signing Okeke doesn't put the Magic over the luxury tax

This is prime example why most posters have problem with you, you argue something that i didn't say and call it ridiculous, i put bold part on my part of a text to see how you take things out of context to make narrative, despite other poster ( in this case me) never saying it.

[Knightro]

Its ridiculous to say they only picked him to avoid luxury tax.

It’s not the *only* reason the Magic picked Okeke by any means, but it certainly is beneficial enough for the Magic to have been one of several legitimate reasons.

My opinion... Orlando went into the draft justifiably thinking that no one they could have realistically picked at 16 would have cracked this year’s rotation without multiple injuries.

So drafting a guy (even if they really like him) that they don’t even have to *pay* when they were very aware they were going to be butted up against the luxury tax this season is something very appealing. I know you have suggested the Magic weren’t in luxury tax trouble at the draft, but to me it’s very naive to think they were not completely and utterly aware of where they stood in terms of bringing back Vucevic, Ross and also signing Aminu by the night of the draft.

On top of the luxury tax stuff, the Magic also kick the kid’s free agency clock a year down the road as well which is great considering he won’t play an NBA minute this season.

It also gives the Magic a full year to evaluate two other things that could tie in to Okeke’s future in Orlando.

1. Can Fultz be a contributor to this team long-term at guard?
2. How does the Gordon/Isaac/Aminu triumvirate play together?

If Fultz completely busts, the Magic will have glaring long-term needs at PG and SG. Since they’re going to be capped out the next couple of seasons and likely not picking in the high lottery, the most reasonable way to fill that gap would be to flip one of Gordon or Isaac knowing you have Okeke waiting in the wings to absorb some of those lost forward minutes.

On the flip side, if the current forward rotation plays unbelievably well and the defense at that spot is a really huge factor in the team’s success, then the thought process could shift to getting Okeke as healthy as possible in an effort to eventually trade *him* for a better fitting piece on the roster.

There’s a lot of ways this thing can go.

[tiderulz]

Its ridiculous to say they only picked him to avoid luxury tax.

It’s not the *only* reason the Magic picked Okeke by any means, but it certainly is beneficial enough for the Magic to have been one of several legitimate reasons.

My opinion... Orlando went into the draft justifiably thinking that no one they could have realistically picked at 16 would have cracked this year’s rotation without multiple injuries.

So drafting a guy (even if they really like him) that they don’t even have to *pay* when they were very aware they were going to be butted up against the luxury tax this season is something very appealing. I know you have suggested the Magic weren’t in luxury tax trouble at the draft, but to me it’s very naive to think they were not completely and utterly aware of where they stood in terms of bringing back Vucevic, Ross and also signing Aminu by the night of the draft.

On top of the luxury tax stuff, the Magic also kick the kid’s free agency clock a year down the road as well which is great considering he won’t play an NBA minute this season.

It also gives the Magic a full year to evaluate two other things that could tie in to Okeke’s future in Orlando.

1. Can Fultz be a contributor to this team long-term at guard?
2. How does the Gordon/Isaac/Aminu triumvirate play together?

If Fultz completely busts, the Magic will have glaring long-term needs at PG and SG. Since they’re going to be capped out the next couple of seasons and likely not picking in the high lottery, the most reasonable way to fill that gap would be to flip one of Gordon or Isaac knowing you have Okeke waiting in the wings to absorb some of those lost forward minutes.

On the flip side, if the current forward rotation plays unbelievably well and the defense at that spot is a really huge factor in the team’s success, then the thought process could shift to getting Okeke as healthy as possible in an effort to eventually trade *him* for a better fitting piece on the roster.

There’s a lot of ways this thing can go.

his injury is one that he supposedly could come back by January, so why wouldnt he play a minute this next year?

[Knightro]

his injury is one that he supposedly could come back by January, so why wouldnt he play a minute this next year?

Because the team already publicly announced Okeke was being stashed for a year? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[tiderulz]

his injury is one that he supposedly could come back by January, so why wouldnt he play a minute this next year?

Because the team already publicly announced Okeke was being stashed for a year? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

so even though he could be back, he is being forced to sit out a year, not getting much money this year and delaying his next contract by a year. like i said from the beginning, this seems like a raw deal for Okeke.

[Knightro]

so even though he could be back, he is being forced to sit out a year, not getting much money this year and delaying his next contract by a year. like i said from the beginning, this seems like a raw deal for Okeke.

You have this all wrong.

Chuma Okeke is not being *forced* to do anything. In order for the Magic retain his rights, they had to legally tender him a contract offer and Okeke if he feels like it can accept that contract tender at any time. There's nothing legally stopping him from accepting the tendered contract from the Magic and forcing his way onto the 2019-2020 roster.

Okeke and his agent are *choosing* not to accept the contract the Magic have tendered him and essentially delay his contract for one year. Why would they agree to that if they didn't have to? There are a couple of explanations.

1. The most likely reason IMO is that Okeke and his agent are returning the favor to the Magic for drafting him at 16 and saving him from a possible (likely?) drop into the 2nd round. There are a few outliers here and there, but as I've laid out a couple of times in this thread the gap in guaranteed money between a 16th overall pick (with almost all top 16 picks getting both option years picked up) and a pick between 31-40 is typically 10M dollars or more.

2. This one is less of a factor because he's delaying RFA by a year, but Okeke is also going to earn 1.1M more over the life of his 4-year rookie contract by signing it in 2020 instead of 2019.