Official Speculation Thread Pt.LXII

[The Real Dalic]

The age-decline is one thing, but the more important issue is playing time and asset accumulation. Basically its an issue of opportunity cost.

At some point Oladipo will be a regular starter, so will Harris, and so will Vuc. In addition, the the best talent coming out of this draft are all forwards. What value does Afflalo provide US for the next 2.5 years? He reduces our odds of a high draft pick this year and takes away playing time. We arent going to win a title this year or next, so his positive value is limited, while his negative value is higher.

Btw, Im not saying a guy like Afflalo is not extremely important to a title caliber team. Im saying he isnt important to a developing team right now. I have no problem with having a vet-guy like Battier on this team when we enter contention level play. But that can be acquired in free agency.

Look at the follow two hypos-

1. Trade Afflalo, get 1st round pick, draft Wiggins or Parker or Randle and draft someone else with Afflalo pick. Then in summer, sign Shane Battier/Afflalo type vet to act as 4th option glue guy. Hell, Luol Deng is a free agent. Bring him in.

2. Keep Afflalo, limit playing time of other guys, dont make playoffs or lose to Heat in 1st round, draft non-star lower level 1st rounder and then have to decide what to do with Afflalo in 2 years when he is a free agent.

Do you see the opportunity cost there? Can you justify why keeping Afflalo is that much more important?

You make some great points. However, one of the main reasons I'm against tanking is because there are so many other teams that are going to try to tank as well and they are worse than us. So I don't think we'll end up with a top 5 pick regardless.

But I can't really argue with your other points. My only thing is I don't think there are a lot of players like a Battier or Afflalo. So that's why I think he is almost irreplaceable. Though I trust Henny can find a player either through the draft or free agency. We'll see what happens with Afflalo.

Forgot to also add that once Vic and the others are ready to take that spot from him, they will. Afflalo will not be the reason Vic, Hark, or Tobias are not starters. Maybe this year (since he's better than all of them but Tobes) but not next.

[The Real Dalic]

True. But Battier is far older than Afflalo and made some of the biggest shots for Miami in the playoffs 2 years ago. Same with Ray Allen. Also, PJ Brown for the Celtics a few years back.

My point is someone like Afflalo is almost irreplaceable for a [size=200]championship contende[/size]r.

And that is something that we are NOT. I dont understand why guys like you think we're going to be good sometime soon? I'm not saying that you've said that, but you're clearly suggesting it somehow by defending his stay here and not considering trading him for assets. By him being here, VO's development through playing time experience is being spoiled in a sense because Afflalo is playing so many minutes.

Bottom line is we are NOT winning a championship this year, next year and probably not the next. Afflalo's work is done here by the TDL. Just my opinion.

I never said we were contenders. But we could start in 2 years. And if we can sign him for around the same when his contract is up he can be an important piece for us when we start contending.

[The Real Dalic]

And that is something that we are NOT. I dont understand why guys like you think we're going to be good sometime soon? I'm not saying that you've said that, but you're clearly suggesting it somehow by defending his stay here and not considering trading him for assets. By him being here, VO's development through playing time experience is being spoiled in a sense because Afflalo is playing so many minutes.

Bottom line is we are NOT winning a championship this year, next year and probably not the next. Afflalo's work is done here by the TDL. Just my opinion.

Can you break that down for me? How is Dipo not going to develop? He played what, 30ish games last year in college and this year should play 82. How will he not develop? He is playing with the starters. He is 21. How will he NOT develop? No you just want to see him most, but when he is stinking it up it's not enjoyable to watch. He will come along and get more minutes as the season goes. With his work ethic, I'm not worried about Dipo.

You are right, we can trade AA for assets. But for ASSETS, not just any ole thing for the sake of trade. We do not NEED to trade his contract. That's fan talk.

And i know you also said this:

That may be true but his contract (although reasonable in size for his output) can be moved for a rookie scale contract that would be more valuable to this particular team in the long run.

But with the cap floor we have to pay someone and can't have all rookie contracts, so again it's not a need.

Great points. People just want to see Oladipo play (very understandable, and trust me, I do too), but he's getting enough minutes right now and he has struggled some and looked great at other times. He needs time to become used to the league and be more consistent before he becomes a starter. I personally think he'll be a starter soon though and Afflalo will still be on the team when that happens. That's my prediction.

[The Real Dalic]

I hate AA.

19.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, shooting 45% from the field and 47% from 3 and has PER of 18.48. Why we hating on Afflalo?

I don't remember anyone here hating Afflalo for any reason other than that he is good and taking minutes away from other players.

I've had a few arguments earlier this season about Afflalo. and believe me, it's not because they think he's good. Lol.

[The Real Dalic]

I hate AA.

19.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, shooting 45% from the field and 47% from 3 and has PER of 18.48. Why we hating on Afflalo?

Because he thinks he's Kobe, Rose, Westbrook, Lebron all wrapped into one. Just watch him play and think of one of those dudes I mentioned above. He's bound to be playing like one of them except that he'll be bricking when he does try to emulate.
I also hate the two man game that Jameer and AA seem to play almost everytime.

He bricks his shots? Is that why he's been one of our most efficient guys?

[Orlwillbeback]

I hate AA.

19.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, shooting 45% from the field and 47% from 3 and has PER of 18.48. Why we hating on Afflalo?

Because he thinks he's Kobe, Rose, Westbrook, Lebron all wrapped into one. Just watch him play and think of one of those dudes I mentioned above. He's bound to be playing like one of them except that he'll be bricking when he does try to emulate.
I also hate the two man game that Jameer and AA seem to play almost everytime.

Mellowrose, I love your enthusiasm for our young guys, but you have to give afflalo credit. He has been great this year and if we end up somewhat competitive then it'll be due in large part to AA.

I don't think he has a big ego, he has a lower usage than dipo and has been very efficient this year. And he's doing it in alot of ways. Post ups, spot ups, curls, the whole bit. He is our most complete player right now.

But i still want to see him go because i dont want us to be too good to not get a piece of this draft.

[Viper1500]

Because he thinks he's Kobe, Rose, Westbrook, Lebron all wrapped into one. Just watch him play and think of one of those dudes I mentioned above. He's bound to be playing like one of them except that he'll be bricking when he does try to emulate.
I also hate the two man game that Jameer and AA seem to play almost everytime.

Well that's because they are the only two who can really space the floor. Makes it much easier/wiser to pass to one another.

I'm sure you are referring to a LeBron-and-Wade 2 man wise game right? Right. This board is amazing. I mean seriously, this team does not have the talent YET to have a two man game going, maybe in the future, but the wise game you're referring to is not happening. When that happens it's more like a 2 man choke game. It doesn't work between them two.

But it does work ? At least better than any other option. Don't exaggerate on how often this "2 man game" occurs. It's more of the 1 man game that Jameer sometimes demonstrates that gets to me.

I'm all for playing the young guys because I believe them gaining experience out there on the floor whether we win or lose will benefit much more.

[Driguez]

Well that's because they are the only two who can really space the floor. Makes it much easier/wiser to pass to one another.

I'm sure you are referring to a LeBron-and-Wade 2 man wise game right? Right. This board is amazing. I mean seriously, this team does not have the talent YET to have a two man game going, maybe in the future, but the wise game you're referring to is not happening. When that happens it's more like a 2 man choke game. It doesn't work between them two.

But it does work ? At least better than any other option. Don't exaggerate on how often this "2 man game" occurs. It's more of the 1 man game that Jameer sometimes demonstrates that gets to me.

I'm all for playing the young guys because I believe them gaining experience out there on the floor whether we win or lose will benefit much more.

I agree with the Jameer thing, but it really becomes a 2 man game. I personally haven't seen it when Dipo is handling the ball.

However, the Meer AA game doesn't work. I mean really. How many wins have the 2 man game gotten us, I'm talking since last season. Anyhow I'm thinking AA might be here to stay, and (as much Meer did for us) that game will be gone for good in a few months.

[Viper1500]

I agree on AA and it's rightfully so in my opinion.

Jameer however, I thought he'd be a good mentor towards Oladipo, but I'm not just not seeing it.

[fendilim]

I agree that Afflalo is a player who helps you win championships. But here is the tricky part, we'll need him after this year. Not during this year,

[cedric76]

Best Balanced line up (offence and defense)

Dipo
AA
Harris
Max
Vuc

Nelson
AA
Moe
AN
Vuc





Sent from my HTC One using RealGM Forums mobile app

[MagicStarwipe]

If Tobias comes back and starts taking a major back seat to Afflalo I will be upset.

[Bensational]

I wonder how a Bledsoe/Oladipo backcourt would be doing right now?

[Catledge]

Nicholson averaged 16.7mpg last year, and it doesn't seem to have stunted his growth, which is primarily a product of work done off the court. Young guys like that only need enough time for them to see what they need to work on.

If we get a good deal for AA, then great. But he's not damaging Dipo's development any more than Kieth Bogans damaged Redick's development during his rookie year.

[dorkestra]

I'm trying to get a sense of your future projected lineup.

In terms of promising young players, I see these guys in your core:

Victor Oladipo
Moe Harkless
Tobias Harris
Andrew Nicholson
Nikola Vucevic

In the opinion of Magic fans, do you see Oladipo as the future 1 or the future 2?

I'm envisioning a scenario in which the Magic get the fourth pick.

Wiggins/Parker/Randle have all been selected. Now if you choose Exum or Smart, do you feel there is a risk of redundancy when combined with Oladipo? In such a scenario, how would Magic fans like the team to make their selection?

[flying_mollusk]

The age-decline is one thing, but the more important issue is playing time and asset accumulation. Basically its an issue of opportunity cost.

At some point Oladipo will be a regular starter, so will Harris, and so will Vuc. In addition, the the best talent coming out of this draft are all forwards. What value does Afflalo provide US for the next 2.5 years? He reduces our odds of a high draft pick this year and takes away playing time. We arent going to win a title this year or next, so his positive value is limited, while his negative value is higher.

Btw, Im not saying a guy like Afflalo is not extremely important to a title caliber team. Im saying he isnt important to a developing team right now. I have no problem with having a vet-guy like Battier on this team when we enter contention level play. But that can be acquired in free agency.

Look at the follow two hypos-

1. Trade Afflalo, get 1st round pick, draft Wiggins or Parker or Randle and draft someone else with Afflalo pick. Then in summer, sign Shane Battier/Afflalo type vet to act as 4th option glue guy. Hell, Luol Deng is a free agent. Bring him in.

2. Keep Afflalo, limit playing time of other guys, dont make playoffs or lose to Heat in 1st round, draft non-star lower level 1st rounder and then have to decide what to do with Afflalo in 2 years when he is a free agent.

Do you see the opportunity cost there? Can you justify why keeping Afflalo is that much more important?

You make some great points. However, one of the main reasons I'm against tanking is because there are so many other teams that are going to try to tank as well and they are worse than us. So I don't think we'll end up with a top 5 pick regardless.

But I can't really argue with your other points. My only thing is I don't think there are a lot of players like a Battier or Afflalo. So that's why I think he is almost irreplaceable. Though I trust Henny can find a player either through the draft or free agency. We'll see what happens with Afflalo.

Forgot to also add that once Vic and the others are ready to take that spot from him, they will. Afflalo will not be the reason Vic, Hark, or Tobias are not starters. Maybe this year (since he's better than all of them but Tobes) but not next.

Thanks. One thing that kind of interests me is how the new CBA is going to alter the playing field. Last free agency saw a solid reduction of salary of the middle market players. In addition, teams are valuing 1st rounders more than ever. I really think Henny is playing into this angle in terms of trying to find future stars now, then using assets to surround them with the right role players.

[Def Swami]

I'm trying to get a sense of your future projected lineup.

In terms of promising young players, I see these guys in your core:

Victor Oladipo
Moe Harkless
Tobias Harris
Andrew Nicholson
Nikola Vucevic

In the opinion of Magic fans, do you see Oladipo as the future 1 or the future 2?

I'm envisioning a scenario in which the Magic get the fourth pick.

Wiggins/Parker/Randle have all been selected. Now if you choose Exum or Smart, do you feel there is a risk of redundancy when combined with Oladipo? In such a scenario, how would Magic fans like the team to make their selection?

No redundancy at all. It's early, but I still have yet to see how Oladipo will become a PG long-term. He has to learn on the job and prove that he can pull it off before I have any faith in that idea. I don't mind the experiment since we're rebuilding and it gives VO an opportunity to improve his ball handling under pressure, playmaking, and reading defenses, all things that will pay off for him whether he plays 1 or 2. I think bringing in someone with real PG instincts like Exum would really piece this team together well. Oladipo and Harris could worry more about attacking consistently, while the PG seeks to feed the mouths on this team.

Exum
Oladipo
Harris
Nicholson
Vucevic

[Blue_and_Whte]

I hate AA.

19.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, shooting 45% from the field and 47% from 3 and has PER of 18.48. Why we hating on Afflalo?

Because he thinks he's Kobe, Rose, Westbrook, Lebron all wrapped into one. Just watch him play and think of one of those dudes I mentioned above. He's bound to be playing like one of them except that he'll be bricking when he does try to emulate.
I also hate the two man game that Jameer and AA seem to play almost everytime.

So its because he's thinks hes Kobe, Rose, Westbrook, and Lebron all wrapped into one and not because Magic fans just want Oladipo to be gifted 35 MPG despite his **** playmaking, ft shooting, and TO's.....Which one do you honestly think it is?

If Vic is as good as people think hes going to be then he'll earn that spot (assuming Afflalo isnt moved) if he cant then maybe there's cause for concern, but right now Aaron is our best SG.

[dorkestra]

Cheers, thanks for your comments. That generally aligns with my thinking. I think Exum and Oladipo would be a really exciting backcourt to watch as well.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I'm trying to get a sense of your future projected lineup.

In terms of promising young players, I see these guys in your core:

Victor Oladipo
Moe Harkless
Tobias Harris
Andrew Nicholson
Nikola Vucevic

In the opinion of Magic fans, do you see Oladipo as the future 1 or the future 2?

I'm envisioning a scenario in which the Magic get the fourth pick.

Wiggins/Parker/Randle have all been selected. Now if you choose Exum or Smart, do you feel there is a risk of redundancy when combined with Oladipo? In such a scenario, how would Magic fans like the team to make their selection?

No redundancy at all. It's early, but I still have yet to see how Oladipo will become a PG long-term. He has to learn on the job and prove that he can pull it off before I have any faith in that idea. I don't mind the experiment since we're rebuilding and it gives VO an opportunity to improve his ball handling under pressure, playmaking, and reading defenses, all things that will pay off for him whether he plays 1 or 2. I think bringing in someone with real PG instincts like Exum would really piece this team together well. Oladipo and Harris could worry more about attacking consistently, while the PG seeks to feed the mouths on this team.

Exum
Oladipo
Harris
Nicholson
Vucevic

but...but he's been playing basketball his whole life. What you see is what you get, he won't improve. Isn't that how it works?

You skipped a part. Unintentional I'm sure. Bolded it for you.

Agree with the guy, we need better defense at the POWER FORWARD then using our best SMALL FORWARD as a full time four.

I didnt skip anything. It's right there in my OP.

Although I'm not sure what bolding the question from a random fan really proves. I think we do need a better defender than Tobias at the 4, although the downgrade defensively at the 3 would be significant.

So Tobias can't defend the 4 and seemingly can't play with other scorers.... Interesting. Really hoping this guy turns into the player everyone is expecting him to be.....

Tobias can't play with other scorers? Where'd that come from? He doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective.

Are you...are you being serious right now?