Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[IllMagic04]

His comment was that they thought they could store asset for better value down the road than what they thought they could get with 25th pick in that draft because they thought it flattened out and they had 3 picks below that. That is experienced asset management.

The Magic had 4 picks in that draft, they used 3 of them (Isaac, Iwundu and Jackson) and converted the 4th one into Fultz. Justin Jackson was injured in G-L but is still under Magic control when he returns.

Three players out 35 picked below #25 isn't proof that it was a dumb trade. Its cherry picking with the luxury of hindsight.

Hindsight is how we judge things though. He said the draft flatened out but hes been proven wrong as there were still some talent on the board. Thats how GMs are judges. I remember most of us here thinking it was dumb at the time anyway.

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He was not proven wrong, the majority of those 35 players proved him right. 32 is greater than 3 cherry picked anomalies. Plus his opinion was not an absolute, its an educated guess, as it is for EVERYONE when it comes to drafting.

If hindsight is how we evaluate then your judgment is premature. Because those 35 players still have at least a decade before their assessment can be proven right or wrong.

I didn't think their strategy was dumb back then. I understood they were widening their window by preserving some of their draft assets for future opportunities. I was also aware of the Magic's cap projection and how that played a role in that decision as well. Plus I knew that bringing in 4 rookies was not a realistic situation.

Cherry picked? The guys we are talking about were picked 27, 29 and 30. Its not like it was someone out of no where in the middle of the 2nd round. Lol. The draft didnt flaten untill the 2nd round. He musta thought Kuz and Iwundu were equally talented. He was wrong.

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[ezzzp]

I mean, the trade was worth the gamble because Fultz was worth more than what’s Simmons and whatever that future pick would provide. We can only say that now assuming Fultz plays anywhere near a lottery talent. It could also no be the case entirely.

Fultz could honestly not even see a basketball court for the rest of his time in the league. Worth the gamble, but only worth it because of the volatility in his asset value. It’s only worth it specifically to Orlando because of the lack of future back court assets. It was DJ and anyone else teams have given up on MCW for example.

It probably wouldn’t have been an acquisition at all if Orlando drafted a young guard in the previous 3-4 drafts. All hindsight, but that’s evaluating roster dynamics, rotational needs, and future investments.

That low risk/high upside transaction was made possible because this FO managed their draft assets well in 17 draft. Instead of just recklessly spending them all because they were in pocket; they stored those assets exactly for the right situation when for misc reasons player or franchise volatility opened up an opportunity.

Just like Fultz, drafting a young guard in previous 3-4 drafts could have resulted in nothing...

2015: 4 drafts ago, Magic took SG Hezonja at 5 and he was supposed to have high offensive upside.

2016: 3 drafts ago, traded pick for Ibaka, then traded for SG T Ross and pick, WelHam traded that pick for pick that became Fultz

2017: 2 drafts ago, I wanted DSJr, but so far vs Isaac its still up in the air who will be better player in long run. Right now, Isaac's defense has impacted winning way more than DSJr's offense. DSJr has yet to prove he can play winning offense, not just stat pad offense. Guards in draft range behind him: Ntilikina, Kennard, and Monk, so far Isaac remains better choice. You have to go down to 13 from 6 to find Mitchell as better guard choice.

2018: Last draft, guards in Magic range: Shai, Sexton and Knox...they probably should have taken Shai over Bamba. But its of course way too early to tell for rookies.

Yeah I was specifically talking about 2018, but yeah it’s the hindsight game. Would have been happy with Shai or Sexton. Don’t know why everyone was so low on Sexton albeit the EP comparisons. Shai was starting for a playoff team this year. That’s a huge bar to set for a rookie and is one of the many reasons why opportunity matters with draft selections.

If they are going to resign Vuc, then management can take an L for drafting a backup C at #6 and not drafting the obvious choice in Shai with a glaring need. This could be further compounded with Fultz if he never plays. Sure, they can trade him away, and they managed to salvage some value from it. However, none of those players are as valuable when you draft and retain them for the future.

They are probably playing the long game with Bamba selection. I think they see Vucevic as a bridge and a developmental tool but one that they won't overpay for. I think they would renounce him if it was difference between D-Lo and him...I would.

It seems like they could have done the same with Shai...he's a physical anomaly for his position as well. He fits their profile and we had clear need. They probably were just amazed by Bamba's physical potential. They did warn right away it was going to take years for him to develop.

[Nyce_1]

It was a bad trade that they were able to salvage with the Fultz trade. Lucky to use those assets and at the right place at the right time.

Move on.

Agreed. Bad trade but luckily Elton Brand is a terrible GM.

Facts. Sometimes, to build a good team, you need a couple breaks to go your way. Hopefully Fultz is one of them.

If we can scoop an UFA Russell, that may be another lucky break for us.

[Bensational]

Trading a 25th pick for a future top 20 protected pick + 2020 2nd rounder is not a dumb trade. Its smart asset management and roster composition. Magic already had 3 rookies that season (Isaac, Iwundu and Birch) plus were already young to begin with.

At that point the Magic has Isaac, no one else yet. There was obviously still value despite thoughts the draft flattened out. It being dumb is my own opinion, I doubt we’ll ever agree on that. We trade a #25 for the possibility of a 21-30 (if were lucky) pick years down the road. I guess I just don’t think it’s a good justification by using the Fultz trade, because he had very little value when we got him.

And the Fultz trade is irrelevant as he could've been had without that pick. I believe Weltman stated that the pick was the cost of including Simmons instead of Ross.

I'm all for stashing assets, but I didn't see any point in kicking that can down the road when we had the roster space available to accommodate another young talent and needs all over the court.

I expected that we would use one of those picks to snag a PG to develop. You have to draft a PG a few years before you actually need them as the position has the steepest learning curve.

In defense of the front office at the time, we know they took the job with the mandate that they give Vogel a legitimate chance to win. We also know that Vogel didn't like carrying more than two rookies on the roster.

There's always the consideration of how valuable a well made draft pick could be, too. If we'd drafted Kuzma, what would he be fetching on the open market right now if we were shopping him, for example.

I do love a bit of revisionist drafting. If we'd picked Mitchell + Kuzma + SGA over the past 2 drafts, how would our team look now with them and the extra assets acquired from trading back?

Vuc/Birch
Gordon/Kuzma
Fournier/Iwundu
Mitchell/Ross
SGA/DJ

Then we'd be free to draft Bol Bol and Tacko to still give WeHam all the length they can dream of. 8)

[Xatticus]

At that point the Magic has Isaac, no one else yet. There was obviously still value despite thoughts the draft flattened out. It being dumb is my own opinion, I doubt we’ll ever agree on that. We trade a #25 for the possibility of a 21-30 (if were lucky) pick years down the road. I guess I just don’t think it’s a good justification by using the Fultz trade, because he had very little value when we got him.

And the Fultz trade is irrelevant as he could've been had without that pick. I believe Weltman stated that the pick was the cost of including Simmons instead of Ross.

I'm all for stashing assets, but I didn't see any point in kicking that can down the road when we had the roster space available to accommodate another young talent and needs all over the court.

I expected that we would use one of those picks to snag a PG to develop. You have to draft a PG a few years before you actually need them as the position has the steepest learning curve.

In defense of the front office at the time, we know they took the job with the mandate that they give Vogel a legitimate chance to win. We also know that Vogel didn't like carrying more than two rookies on the roster.

There's always the consideration of how valuable a well made draft pick could be, too. If we'd drafted Kuzma, what would he be fetching on the open market right now if we were shopping him, for example.

I do love a bit of revisionist drafting. If we'd picked Mitchell + Kuzma + SGA over the past 2 drafts, how would our team look now with them and the extra assets acquired from trading back?

Vuc/Birch
Gordon/Kuzma
Fournier/Iwundu
Mitchell/Ross
SGA/DJ

Then we'd be free to draft Bol Bol and Tacko to still give WeHam all the length they can dream of. 8)

Yeah. And the value of draft picks doesn't disappear immediately after they are drafted unless they are severely mismanaged. Young and inexpensive players almost always carry positive trade value; particularly when they are productive with the minutes they are given. We don't know the outcomes for Derrick White or Landry Shamet at this point, but they are certainly worth more than the draft picks that were used on them.

Every draft pick has a projected expected value that is invariably positive. The EV will begin to shift up or down in the months and years after the selection is made, but for rookie-scale players, it never really becomes negative because the cost is never excessive and because the contract is never guaranteed for more than a couple years out. At worst, you can use the contract as filler in another deal. Fultz' career has gone about as disastrously as could've been imagined and he is on a relatively expensive rookie-scale deal, yet Philadelphia had no difficulty moving him for an expiring contract and a couple picks.

People focus on the outcomes of picks to push agendas. There are still people that routinely criticize Iwundu even though that pick has been a success. He has given us a lot of good minutes while costing us next to nothing in opportunity cost. I'd expect that we could easily get a second-round pick back for him at this point.

[ezzzp]

And the Fultz trade is irrelevant as he could've been had without that pick. I believe Weltman stated that the pick was the cost of including Simmons instead of Ross.

I'm all for stashing assets, but I didn't see any point in kicking that can down the road when we had the roster space available to accommodate another young talent and needs all over the court.

I expected that we would use one of those picks to snag a PG to develop. You have to draft a PG a few years before you actually need them as the position has the steepest learning curve.

In defense of the front office at the time, we know they took the job with the mandate that they give Vogel a legitimate chance to win. We also know that Vogel didn't like carrying more than two rookies on the roster.

The 76ers primary ask was a FRP, and to match salaries they wanted no cap impact this summer. At the time, the only way for the Magic to be able to match Fultz' contract was with either Ross or Simmons.

The options were Simmons + OKC pick...or Ross + OKC pick. Nobody on the Magic side (from FO to fans) wanted to give up Ross. And they certainly weren't giving up their own 2019 FRP or any future 1st for Fultz.

The asset that made the trade palatable from 76ers side was that FRP. Luckily Jeff Weltman did see a point in preserving one of his draft assets in its most valuable state (unused). With that he acquired Fultz.

WeltHam had 4 draft picks and used three of them. He brought in 5 rookies that year: Birch, Iwundu and Isaac + two 2-ways in Artis and Purvis. That's on top of what was already one of youngest rosters in NBA.

I can see an argument for Shai over Bamba, but outside of that I trust their judgement on why they didn't want those other players.

[ezzzp]

There's always the consideration of how valuable a well made draft pick could be, too. If we'd drafted Kuzma, what would he be fetching on the open market right now if we were shopping him, for example.

I do love a bit of revisionist drafting. If we'd picked Mitchell + Kuzma + SGA over the past 2 drafts, how would our team look now with them and the extra assets acquired from trading back?

Vuc/Birch
Gordon/Kuzma
Fournier/Iwundu
Mitchell/Ross
SGA/DJ

Then we'd be free to draft Bol Bol and Tacko to still give WeHam all the length they can dream of. 8)

FRP usually have more value in unused state. The Magic could have easily drafted Caleb Swanigan etc and wasted the asset that netted us Fultz.

My speculation with Kuzma is that WeltHam did not like his game or attitude. He plays no defense, is a poor rebounder and has JR Smith shot selection. That's not a WelHam type guy. If Kuzma played on a small market lottery team instead of LA (the NBA's flagship media franchise), he would get judged for his game instead of his media profile...its unbelievable that he gets invite to Team USA camp over so many more deserving players.

[ezzzp]

Cherry picked? The guys we are talking about were picked 27, 29 and 30. Its not like it was someone out of no where in the middle of the 2nd round. Lol. The draft didnt flaten untill the 2nd round. He musta thought Kuz and Iwundu were equally talented. He was wrong.

I trust WelHam's judgment. That FO has an excellent track record.

Its not always about who has most ppg, but what type of player and if that player is a winning type player.

Kuzma is a zero defense, poor rebounding chucker with an entitled attitude. That's not a WelHam player or the type of player that produces wins. Just because Kuzma has media hype from playing in LA, that doesn't mean that he is or will automatically be better piece to a quality team in the future.

Iwundu has come along very nicely, and he plays the right way. He was key part of the Magic's playoff run and played amazing defense. Contender teams often have 3-D wings starting or in high rotation, especially ones with Iwundu's ability to defend 1-4. His 3PT shooting is improving too (shot .367 last year...meanwhile Kuzma had .303 3P% but that didn't stop him from chucking them up at high volume).

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Cherry picked? The guys we are talking about were picked 27, 29 and 30. Its not like it was someone out of no where in the middle of the 2nd round. Lol. The draft didnt flaten untill the 2nd round. He musta thought Kuz and Iwundu were equally talented. He was wrong.

I trust WelHam's judgment. That FO has an excellent track record.

Its not always about who has most ppg, but what type of player and if that player is a winning type player.

Kuzma is a zero defense, poor rebounding chucker with an entitled attitude. That's not a WelHam player or the type of player that produces wins. Just because Kuzma has media hype from playing in LA, that doesn't mean that he is or will automatically be better piece to a quality team in the future.

Iwundu has come along very nicely, and he plays the right way. He was key part of the Magic's playoff run and played amazing defense. Contender teams often have 3-D wings starting or in high rotation, especially ones with Iwundu's ability to defend 1-4. His 3PT shooting is improving too (shot .367 last year...meanwhile Kuzma had .303 3P% but that didn't stop him from chucking them up at high volume).

LOL at Iwundu shot 36% as if it meant anything. Dude barely shot 1 3 a game and probably was give 4-5 wide open 3s a night. Dude shot 79 3’s in 82 games made 29. Kuzma made 179 3s.

Saying Iwundu is a 3&D is disrespectful to all the true 3&D guys in the League.

[NotACat]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Hard not to be optimistic about this teams future, hopefully we have the chance to grab NAW at 16 to round out our long boi young core

[ezzzp]

LOL at Iwundu shot 36% as if it meant anything. Dude barely shot 1 3 a game and probably was give 4-5 wide open 3s a night. Dude shot 79 3’s in 82 games made 29. Kuzma made 179 3s.

Saying Iwundu is a 3&D is disrespectful to all the true 3&D guys in the League.

Uhm duh, I'm obviously talking about Iwundu's future projection as a 3-D...hence the words: "His 3PT shooting is improving too" and the obvious context is future since I'm talking about player roles on contender teams.

FYI Kuzma missed 294 3's and was on joke team and one of worst defenders in NBA.

[pepe1991]

At best , Iwundu is third string type player.

There are players who are not effective scorers, there are players who are not great at scoring in general, he is both.

He is bad medicore passer, poor ballhandler, poor rebounder and flat out can't score , effective or not, simply can't.

[cedric76]

Anyone recorded this?

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Thx

[dsg2021]

I haven't watched an opponent's entire playoffs like I did with TOR since some of the SAS runs. I think deep down, I always liked TOR as the best chance against GSW, and it really puts our team's playoffs run in perspective.
First, our team defense was absolutely amazing for many/most stretches. I legitimately think ORL defended TOR better than GSW in some stretches, and our team did it as an severely undermatched and underexperienced squad so some of the hopeless stretches where things fell apart can almost not count in a sense. Of course, we still need some type of reliable offense that can't be stopped consistently (i.e., probably a star, and/or some brilliant passing-offense-scheme).
Second, TOR's length is very special. The way they can defend, deflect downright better, as well as attack or shoot just a tiny bit easier. They have shown that ORL's emphasis on length is good, too.
Thirdly, TOR's combined playoffs experience is huge. You could see with MIL and DEN and our '09 ORL team, that some of these teams just do so well in the playoffs, that they eventually get into this series where none of them have any experience, it's all bright lights or it's all playoff inexperience making little mistakes here and there that all add up. If ORL finds an explosive break-out star in Isaac or Fultz or this year's #16, they'll need a couple of playoffs vets like, say, CP3 and another

[cedric76]

I haven't watched an opponent's entire playoffs like I did with TOR since some of the SAS runs. I think deep down, I always liked TOR as the best chance against GSW, and it really puts our team's playoffs run in perspective.
First, our team defense was absolutely amazing for many/most stretches. I legitimately think ORL defended TOR better than GSW in some stretches, and our team did it as an severely undermatched and underexperienced squad so some of the hopeless stretches where things fell apart can almost not count in a sense. Of course, we still need some type of reliable offense that can't be stopped consistently (i.e., probably a star, and/or some brilliant passing-offense-scheme).
Second, TOR's length is very special. The way they can defend, deflect downright better, as well as attack or shoot just a tiny bit easier. They have shown that ORL's emphasis on length is good, too.
Thirdly, TOR's combined playoffs experience is huge. You could see with MIL and DEN and our '09 ORL team, that some of these teams just do so well in the playoffs, that they eventually get into this series where none of them have any experience, it's all bright lights or it's all playoff inexperience making little mistakes here and there that all add up. If ORL finds an explosive break-out star in Isaac or Fultz or this year's #16, they'll need a couple of playoffs vets like, say, CP3 and another

Yes u can see lengthy team r doing great

I really think weham will draft kz Okpala and groom him into our future sg

Fuktz
Okpala
Ag
Isaac
Mo

This could be a very sexy team in few years

[NotACat]

I haven't watched an opponent's entire playoffs like I did with TOR since some of the SAS runs. I think deep down, I always liked TOR as the best chance against GSW, and it really puts our team's playoffs run in perspective.
First, our team defense was absolutely amazing for many/most stretches. I legitimately think ORL defended TOR better than GSW in some stretches, and our team did it as an severely undermatched and underexperienced squad so some of the hopeless stretches where things fell apart can almost not count in a sense. Of course, we still need some type of reliable offense that can't be stopped consistently (i.e., probably a star, and/or some brilliant passing-offense-scheme).
Second, TOR's length is very special. The way they can defend, deflect downright better, as well as attack or shoot just a tiny bit easier. They have shown that ORL's emphasis on length is good, too.
Thirdly, TOR's combined playoffs experience is huge. You could see with MIL and DEN and our '09 ORL team, that some of these teams just do so well in the playoffs, that they eventually get into this series where none of them have any experience, it's all bright lights or it's all playoff inexperience making little mistakes here and there that all add up. If ORL finds an explosive break-out star in Isaac or Fultz or this year's #16, they'll need a couple of playoffs vets like, say, CP3 and another

Yes u can see lengthy team r doing great

I really think weham will draft kz Okpala and groom him into our future sg

Fuktz
Okpala
Ag
Isaac
Mo

This could be a very sexy team in few years

Okpala has no chance of playing or defending the 2 spot in the NBA. His lateral agility is nowhere near good enough.

[yoyojw17]

I haven't watched an opponent's entire playoffs like I did with TOR since some of the SAS runs. I think deep down, I always liked TOR as the best chance against GSW, and it really puts our team's playoffs run in perspective.
First, our team defense was absolutely amazing for many/most stretches. I legitimately think ORL defended TOR better than GSW in some stretches, and our team did it as an severely undermatched and underexperienced squad so some of the hopeless stretches where things fell apart can almost not count in a sense. Of course, we still need some type of reliable offense that can't be stopped consistently (i.e., probably a star, and/or some brilliant passing-offense-scheme).
Second, TOR's length is very special. The way they can defend, deflect downright better, as well as attack or shoot just a tiny bit easier. They have shown that ORL's emphasis on length is good, too.
Thirdly, TOR's combined playoffs experience is huge. You could see with MIL and DEN and our '09 ORL team, that some of these teams just do so well in the playoffs, that they eventually get into this series where none of them have any experience, it's all bright lights or it's all playoff inexperience making little mistakes here and there that all add up. If ORL finds an explosive break-out star in Isaac or Fultz or this year's #16, they'll need a couple of playoffs vets like, say, CP3 and another

Yes u can see lengthy team r doing great

I really think weham will draft kz Okpala and groom him into our future sg

Fuktz
Okpala
Ag
Isaac
Mo

This could be a very sexy team in few years

Okpala has no chance of playing or defending the 2 spot in the NBA. His lateral agility is nowhere near good enough.

Hmmmm.... KZ might be the guy. lol

https://fansided.com/2019/06/07/kz-okpala-application-physical-tools/

good article about him as a containment defender and not a stat stuffer.

[basketballRob]

Wonder if Golden State complains to the league that VanVleet should be under concussion protocol?

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[NotACat]

Yes u can see lengthy team r doing great

I really think weham will draft kz Okpala and groom him into our future sg

Fuktz
Okpala
Ag
Isaac
Mo

This could be a very sexy team in few years

Okpala has no chance of playing or defending the 2 spot in the NBA. His lateral agility is nowhere near good enough.

Hmmmm.... KZ might be the guy. lol

https://fansided.com/2019/06/07/kz-okpala-application-physical-tools/

good article about him as a containment defender and not a stat stuffer.

I saw this as well. I can't see him going toe-to-toe with Beal, Booker, or some of the other SGs in the league. However, a defensive scheme of nothing but switches between AG-Isaac-Okpala-Bamba and just not letting players near the paint and forcing tough 3s would be astonishing. I don't know how effective it would be, but it would be really fun to see. Fultz would also be great in such a scheme due to his elite wingspan.

Edit: I'm looking over some highlights, and I still think going with a long SG/SF (NAW, Langford, KPJ, or KJ) would be the best way to go.

[cedric76]

I haven't watched an opponent's entire playoffs like I did with TOR since some of the SAS runs. I think deep down, I always liked TOR as the best chance against GSW, and it really puts our team's playoffs run in perspective.
First, our team defense was absolutely amazing for many/most stretches. I legitimately think ORL defended TOR better than GSW in some stretches, and our team did it as an severely undermatched and underexperienced squad so some of the hopeless stretches where things fell apart can almost not count in a sense. Of course, we still need some type of reliable offense that can't be stopped consistently (i.e., probably a star, and/or some brilliant passing-offense-scheme).
Second, TOR's length is very special. The way they can defend, deflect downright better, as well as attack or shoot just a tiny bit easier. They have shown that ORL's emphasis on length is good, too.
Thirdly, TOR's combined playoffs experience is huge. You could see with MIL and DEN and our '09 ORL team, that some of these teams just do so well in the playoffs, that they eventually get into this series where none of them have any experience, it's all bright lights or it's all playoff inexperience making little mistakes here and there that all add up. If ORL finds an explosive break-out star in Isaac or Fultz or this year's #16, they'll need a couple of playoffs vets like, say, CP3 and another

Yes u can see lengthy team r doing great

I really think weham will draft kz Okpala and groom him into our future sg

Fuktz
Okpala
Ag
Isaac
Mo

This could be a very sexy team in few years

Okpala has no chance of playing or defending the 2 spot in the NBA. His lateral agility is nowhere near good enough.

I disagree