Official Summer 2024 Magic Free Agency and Trade Ideas Thread 3.0

[eyriq]

Says who? Hes a **** point guard and has been his entire career up to this point.

He's just in a situation that Mosely isnt going to give him the keys to the offense if he doesn't have to.

You are fooling yourself if you think this FO drafted this dude to guard shooting guards and Forwards instead of being a matchup nightmare for 99% of the league. The main learning curve for him is contributing on offense WITH the ball and not being this off-ball guard that everyone expects him to be relegated to.

Whats the best way to develop those skills?

Option A - learn under a vet that knows how to manage a game well and be a focal piece of the offense.
Option B - get a bunch of minutes in the starting lineup and learn through mistakes for the first few seasons (see Suggs)

Orlando went with dumb option C where he is doing neither, where they aren't developing him OR helping the team by rolling out Fultz and Cole for the majority of minutes. It doesnt help the team and doesnt equate to anything long term.

It's almost like people knew this would happen back in April before the draft...

The point I'm trying to make is...

We're not going to know if Anthony Black or Cason Wallace or Amen Thompson are going to potentially be ready to take over as the starting point guard for Fultz or even as the backup point guard for Anthony in 2024-2025 if they spend their entire rookie season playing off the ball at the 2 and 3.

And as it stands right now, that is the only way (barring injuries) that they'd get on the court next season if Fultz and Anthony are both here (which I expect them to both be).

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=2275531&p=105354559&hilit=Anthony+Black+backup#p105354559

That was a nice stroll through memory lane! I can't believe I had AB ahead of Keyonte for a moment there. I would have him ahead of Keyonte now, though. The defense is smexy and better than advertised.

[JoshuaPotter]

I'm fairly lost in the weeds here.

The challenge being...we have a backup PG who is fine. His name is Cole Anthony.

We need a 2nd or 3rd scoring option, preferably a play maker and or a shooter at either guard position. Blacks 3-ball has improved and is better then advertised, but I share the concern.

Question remains. If you get someone with plenty left in the tank at PG or even SG. Then the succession plan for Black becomes a wasted pick. But lets ignore the wasted pick narrative. It just becomes a bust, that you hopefully trade to get future cash considerations for.

The other challenge I have, is Paolo is clearly developing into No 1. Franz is a no 2 or no 3 option on the offense. But what's that look like salary wise?

Again, my opinion only. Let Fultz + Harris expire. Sign a veteran PG for Black+Suggs to learn from and see where they develop. I'm not sure once we extend Franz / Suggs / Paolo that we will be able to afford this mysterious great 3rd player and retain everyone else.

[RichCollab]

I'm fairly lost in the weeds here.

The challenge being...we have a backup PG who is fine. His name is Cole Anthony.

We need a 2nd or 3rd scoring option, preferably a play maker and or a shooter at either guard position. Blacks 3-ball has improved and is better then advertised, but I share the concern.

Question remains. If you get someone with plenty left in the tank at PG or even SG. Then the succession plan for Black becomes a wasted pick. But lets ignore the wasted pick narrative. It just becomes a bust, that you hopefully trade to get future cash considerations for.

The other challenge I have, is Paolo is clearly developing into No 1. Franz is a no 2 or no 3 option on the offense. But what's that look like salary wise?

Again, my opinion only. Let Fultz + Harris expire. Sign a veteran PG for Black+Suggs to learn from and see where they develop. I'm not sure once we extend Franz / Suggs / Paolo that we will be able to afford this mysterious great 3rd player and retain everyone else.

Get me Monk! Black will find minutes and develop. My only problem is fit but Black can play PG - SF.

[KillMonger]

Why even draft black if you didn't have aspirations that some day he'd be lead guard? As I remember he was not consensus top 8 in that draft was he? We could've gone elsewhere

[flying_mollusk]

Why even draft black if you didn't have aspirations that some day he'd be lead guard? As I remember he was not consensus top 8 in that draft was he? We could've gone elsewhere

I thought he was.

[thelead]

Why even draft black if you didn't have aspirations that some day he'd be lead guard? As I remember he was not consensus top 8 in that draft was he? We could've gone elsewhere

I thought he was.

He was the BPA and a consensus top 6 player according to most boards.

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2023
https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/
https://www.si.com/nba/draft/mock-drafts-and-big-boards/2023-nba-mock-draft-final-projections-on-draft-day
https://sports.yahoo.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-10-lottery-movement-latest-intel-on-no-2-predictions-and-analysis-on-all-58-picks-172337760.html

I believe ESPN's Givony had him at 8.

It was absolutely not a reach to take him at 6 and quite honestly, I'm not sure anyone taken ahead of him is looking like a future star anyway. Jarace Walker isn't playing much for Indy either. Bilal looks like he's two years away from being two years away. Hendricks has played 19 games. Cason Wallace has looked solid and I wouldn't have been mad if he was the pick but no one knows how he would look if he wasn't on one of the best teams in the league. Still, he's averaging 6.9ppg in his role.

I dunno, I'm open to trading him but I wouldn't look at him as a wasted pick either. He will be a productive NBA player one way or the other due to his size, defense, and feel for the game.

[fendilim]

Black is exactly what weltman envisions a PG to be, imo. He isn’t a heavy usage point guard. More of a 3 and D. Most of the heavy usage is with Paolo and Banchero. We just need Black to help spread the floor and make great read and passes, imo.

This is evident even when we have Fultz on the court. Our PGs are just there to bring the ball down. But Franz and P5 are the ones initiating the offense.

[fendilim]

Why even draft black if you didn't have aspirations that some day he'd be lead guard? As I remember he was not consensus top 8 in that draft was he? We could've gone elsewhere

Be a lead guard and take usage away from Franz and Paolo?

[BadMofoPimp]

At this point, I just hope that Black and Jett end up serviceable backups or part time starters. I like Defense so Black has a chance to stick if he has 3 or 4 good other options on offense and he doesn't have to dribble the ball a good deal.

If there is a solid player in the upcoming draft about picks 4 thru 10 that look very promising, I would trade Black and this years Magic's pick.

[Skybox]

Black is exactly what weltman envisions a PG to be, imo.

...and Mose is what Weltman considers a modern NBA offensive mind...and scoring 100 points is a big deal.

[thelead]

At this point, I just hope that Black and Jett end up serviceable backups or part time starters. I like Defense so Black has a chance to stick if he has 3 or 4 good other options on offense and he doesn't have to dribble the ball a good deal.

If there is a solid player in the upcoming draft about picks 4 thru 10 that look very promising, I would trade Black and this years Magic's pick.

Rob Dillingham is that guy

[eyriq]

I was curious what the probability was for a rookie ranked in the 20's amongst his draft class to be in the top 10 in his draft class by their sixth season. It's around 25%. The number one ranked player has a 50% probability by this method.

So really, AB not ranking highly as a rookie isn't that big a damper on his future outlook.

It looks a lot rougher for Jett.

Edit: Some names that were outside the top 20 of their draft class after their rookie seasons but bounced up to top ten by their sixth season.

Nicholas Batum
Al Jefferson
J.J. Redick
Richaun Holmes
Domantas Sabonis
Monta Ellis
Norman Powell
DeMar DeRozan
Devin Harris
Nikola Vucevic
Glen Davis
Evan Fournier
Gordon Hayward
OG Anunoby
David West
Aaron Gordon
Dwayne Dedman
TJ Warren
CJ McCollum
Rudy Gobert
Tobias Harris
Goran Dragic
Jaylen Brown
Aaron Afflalo
Spencer Dinwiddie
DeAndre Jordan
Pascal Siakam
Jimmy Butler
Mo Williams
Robin Lopez
Draymond Green
Jacob Poetl
Jeff teague
Linas Klieza
Isaiah Hartenstein
Kevin Martin
Fred VanVleet
Christian Wood
Ish Smith
Will Barton
Dennis Schroeder
Andray Blatche
Dejounte Murray
Terry Rozier
Otto Porter Jr
JJ Barrera
Avery Bradley
Grayson Allen
Andrew Bynum
Anfernee Simons

[thelead]

I think we can all agree that Fultz is likely not returning next year. I can see Gary Harris being brought back but I don't think the likelihood is high unless we fail grabbing FA or trade targets. I just highly doubt we're going to roll into next season with a backcourt rotation of AB/Cole at point and Suggs/Jett at the 2. Something has to give this summer IMO.

[eyriq]

This is cold. Players that ranked top 3 as rookies but outside the top 10 by their sixth season?

Ben Simmons
Brandon Roy
Michael Carter-Williams
Dario Saric
OJ Mayo
Nerlens Noel
Emeka Okafor
Elfrid Payton
Derrick Rose
Kenneth Faried
Charlie Villanueva
Trey Burke
Brandon Jennings
DeAndre Ayton

[Knightro]

I just highly doubt we're going to roll into next season with a backcourt rotation of AB/Cole at point and Suggs/Jett at the 2. Something has to give this summer IMO.

This won't be the guard rotation if they want to win more next year than they've won this year.

[eyriq]

I think we can all agree that Fultz is likely not returning next year. I can see Gary Harris being brought back but I don't think the likelihood is high unless we fail grabbing FA or trade targets. I just highly doubt we're going to roll into next season with a backcourt rotation of AB/Cole at point and Suggs/Jett at the 2. Something has to give this summer IMO.

Personally, I think AB is exactly what WePark want at the PG slot. He can guard 1-4 and has a diversity of skills. I think the job is his to lose.

As for Jett, I don't know. They obviously like him. I doubt any information they've gathered post draft has changed their plans for him. I believe they value providing players a path to playing time and genuinely think being in the G-League is beneficial for his development. He'll get his shot at rotation minutes.

All that said, Franz and Paolo are a core to build around. WePark say they don't want to skip any steps, but isn't a step in a rebuild consolidating around a core?

We have pre-extension cap space and draft equity, it will be tempting to shop for a bonafide 3rd option. I'd prefer we let Suggs/AB/Jett fight for the role internally. We are in no rush.

[eyriq]

Black is exactly what weltman envisions a PG to be, imo. He isn’t a heavy usage point guard. More of a 3 and D. Most of the heavy usage is with Paolo and Banchero. We just need Black to help spread the floor and make great read and passes, imo.

This is evident even when we have Fultz on the court. Our PGs are just there to bring the ball down. But Franz and P5 are the ones initiating the offense.

Yes, exactly this. With Franz and Paolo at high usage rates we'll only need one more in the low 20's and the rest in the teens.

[thelead]

I just highly doubt we're going to roll into next season with a backcourt rotation of AB/Cole at point and Suggs/Jett at the 2. Something has to give this summer IMO.

Not if they want to win more next year than they've won this year this won't be the guard rotation.

I agree... which is why I wonder if AB and/or Jett are going to be on the trade table this summer to get a legit starting guard.

My absolute untouchables at this point are Paolo/Franz/Suggs/JI. There are others I like but that is the core 4 that cannot be traded unless we're trading for a top 5 player in their prime like Luka... then sure, I can let Franz go

[thelead]

I think we can all agree that Fultz is likely not returning next year. I can see Gary Harris being brought back but I don't think the likelihood is high unless we fail grabbing FA or trade targets. I just highly doubt we're going to roll into next season with a backcourt rotation of AB/Cole at point and Suggs/Jett at the 2. Something has to give this summer IMO.

Personally, I think AB is exactly what WePark want at the PG slot. He can guard 1-4 and has a diversity of skills. I think the job is his to lose.

As for Jett, I don't know. They obviously like him. I doubt any information they've gathered post draft has changed their plans for him. I believe they value providing players a path to playing time and genuinely think being in the G-League is beneficial for his development. He'll get his shot at rotation minutes.

All that said, Franz and Paolo are a core to build around. WePark say they don't want to skip any steps, but isn't a step in a rebuild consolidating around a core?

We have pre-extension cap space and draft equity, it will be tempting to shop for a bonafide 3rd option. I'd prefer we let Suggs/AB/Jett fight for the role internally. We are in no rush.

With how they're 'developing' AB, I don't think they care for a true PG. We're in agreement there... which brings me to asking if AB is the best 'guard' for this team then moving forward. Wouldn't we be better off trading AB and a pick or 2 for someone like Mikal Bridges if he becomes available this summer?

Claxton or Goga
Paolo
Franz
Mikal
Suggs

That sure does seem like a Weltman roster to me.

[eyriq]

I think we can all agree that Fultz is likely not returning next year. I can see Gary Harris being brought back but I don't think the likelihood is high unless we fail grabbing FA or trade targets. I just highly doubt we're going to roll into next season with a backcourt rotation of AB/Cole at point and Suggs/Jett at the 2. Something has to give this summer IMO.

Personally, I think AB is exactly what WePark want at the PG slot. He can guard 1-4 and has a diversity of skills. I think the job is his to lose.

As for Jett, I don't know. They obviously like him. I doubt any information they've gathered post draft has changed their plans for him. I believe they value providing players a path to playing time and genuinely think being in the G-League is beneficial for his development. He'll get his shot at rotation minutes.

All that said, Franz and Paolo are a core to build around. WePark say they don't want to skip any steps, but isn't a step in a rebuild consolidating around a core?

We have pre-extension cap space and draft equity, it will be tempting to shop for a bonafide 3rd option. I'd prefer we let Suggs/AB/Jett fight for the role internally. We are in no rush.

With how they're 'developing' AB, I don't think they care for a true PG. We're in agreement there... which brings me to asking if AB is the best 'guard' for this team then moving forward. Wouldn't we be better off trading AB and a pick or 2 for someone like Mikal Bridges if he becomes available this summer?

Claxton or Goga
Paolo
Franz
Mikal
Suggs

That sure does seem like a Weltman roster to me.

No, I don't think we are in a position to trade lotto talent. We need upside, not win-now.