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Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team"

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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: 

Post#1121 » by Bensational » Thu Dec 3, 2020 11:58 pm

nicnac215 wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:Not counting on breakout year from AG, but Evan.. in a contract year... I'm just saying.. (See Vooch and T Ross)

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He had a career and contract year last season. Do you think he'll find another level this season? Would be nice if he did, but it just won't happen. He's already playing well beyond his capabilities, to the detriment of the team.

Hopefully he does keep up the improved play so we can trade him at the deadline for something of value


WeHam trade someone? Lol, what team have you been watching for the last 3 years? (No shade, I'm just poking fun at the FO)
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: 

Post#1122 » by yoyojw17 » Fri Dec 4, 2020 12:20 am

Dub_Sax wrote:
Bensational wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:Not counting on breakout year from AG, but Evan.. in a contract year... I'm just saying.. (See Vooch and T Ross)

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He had a career and contract year last season. Do you think he'll find another level this season? Would be nice if he did, but it just won't happen. He's already playing well beyond his capabilities, to the detriment of the team.


I agree he tries to do more than he can. But do I see a world where he handle the ball less, Fultz handles the ball more and puts him in more catch and shoot situations?

I do.

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As i've said... Fultz's usage will be the linchpin to our offense... and everyone fitting into their more appropriate positions. which will inevitably lead to better efficiency for all players. End of season Gordon needs to be ... beginning of the season gordon. lol

I get why people feel as though we are taking a step back this year... but so much can still swing in the right direction surprisingly.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1123 » by Dub_Sax » Fri Dec 4, 2020 4:57 am

It's probably been said before but worth mentioning again that post AS break, last season, the Magic were 1st in offensive rating until the shutdown. During that stretch they also had two double digit come from behind road wins against Memphis and Brooklyn.

For a team notoriously know for not having enough scoring, that shows they have the ability to put points on the board and also exhibit a bit of, dare I say, toughness, as well.

And with a majority of that team returning, is it crazy to think they can replicate that same or similar output?



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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1124 » by Furinkazan » Fri Dec 4, 2020 9:57 am

MartinsIzAfraud wrote:
JBSouthpaw wrote:
MartinsIzAfraud wrote:Ya'll are in for a rude awakening this year. There's a 10% chance we finish top 9 in the East. Atlanta got much better, Washington got a healthy player in Westbrook to pair with Beal & Bertans. Cliff is going to ride the breaks off of Vuc AG & Fournier that one will get injured for month or so and we'll look like an AAU team during that span.

who is Ya'll?? Don't think anyone is expecting top 8.

The same 4 posters who have applauded everything the FO has done. They know who they are lol

You mean Cliff,Hammond,Weltman and Martins?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1125 » by Skybox » Fri Dec 4, 2020 11:53 am

I was fully on board for Westbrook but I’m also hopeful that Fultz’s game continues to evolve into Westbrook territory. IF that were to happen (and Cole is for real leading second unit), the same dynamics could occur...Evan settles into elitefloor spreading role, Vuc returns to All-Star p’n’r status, AG learns to play off ball and flourishes as a Draymond type. Westbrook would have made these more likely but Fultz facilitating the same is not out of the question...if Cole is top 5 ROY candidate, we have an explosive bench with TRoss, Okeke, dare I say emerging Bamba...as always, things have to right- but there are quite a few things that reasonably could.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: 

Post#1126 » by Knightro » Fri Dec 4, 2020 1:30 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:It's probably been said before but worth mentioning again that post AS break, last season, the Magic were 1st in offensive rating until the shutdown. During that stretch they also had two double digit come from behind road wins against Memphis and Brooklyn.

For a team notoriously know for not having enough scoring, that shows they have the ability to put points on the board and also exhibit a bit of, dare I say, toughness, as well.

And with a majority of that team returning, is it crazy to think they can replicate that same or similar output?


I think it is, yes.

Gotta be real careful extrapolating small sample sizes out of long seasons.

You catch a few of the worst defensive teams in a row in short order and it can really skew the numbers.

The Magic averaged 121 PPG during the stretch you’re referring to, but they also played Atlanta twice and Minnesota twice - the two worst defensive teams in the league by PPG allowed - and the Magic scored 135, 130, 136 and 132 in those four games.

Take out those four games, all wins btw, and the hot streak becomes a much more normal 114 PPG with a 4-4 record.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: 

Post#1127 » by Nyce_1 » Fri Dec 4, 2020 2:21 pm

Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic

I just cannot quit Aaron Gordon. It could be 2030, with Gordon shooting 28% from deep and running too many pick-and-rolls, and I would still insist he might make the leap at any moment.

Perhaps Gordon hinted at it in 10 games between the All-Star break and the NBA's hiatus, when he averaged 15 points (fourth on the team in that span), nine rebounds, and seven assists -- and hit 56.5% of his 2s. He was pushing the pace after grab-and-go rebounds, spraying dimes in transition, and (sometimes) overpowering suckers in the post:

Give me more of this -- against a like-sized player in T.J. Warren! -- and way fewer bricked fadeaways.

I still remember where I was the moment Frank Vogel, then starting his tenure as Orlando's head coach, told me during an interview he would use Gordon like he had Paul George in Indiana -- i.e., as something close to lead ball handler. It surprised me, and struck me as something a coach might say to placate an ambitious young player.

Orlando last season scored only 0.838 points per possession when Gordon shot out of a pick-and-roll, or dished to a teammate who fired right away -- 205th among 260 players who ran at least 50 such plays, per Second Spectrum. That number has cracked 0.9 only once in Gordon's career, and barely. He just hasn't displayed the jumper or feel to thrive in that role.

You can't blame Gordon for chasing conventional stardom. Most good young players do; Gordon is barely 25. He has never played with an elite or maybe even above-average pick-and-roll maestro. In some past seasons, he could have plausibly talked himself into being Orlando's best player.

The Magic also shoehorned Gordon into a wing role; it is not a coincidence Gordon's best stretch last season came with Jonathan Isaac hurt and Gordon playing power forward. With Isaac out, Gordon stays there.

I have been writing for years that Gordon would find himself when he decided to channel his inner Draymond Green instead of aspiring to be LeBron James. Gordon is already a borderline All-Defensive player capable of guarding any position.
Perhaps that switch flipped before last season's stoppage.

"The challenge for every player is the same: How do you play well and efficiently while the team functions well?" Steve Clifford, Orlando's coach, told ESPN. "For Aaron, that stretch was probably the best he has played."Gordon felt it too. "I found my comfort zone with what [Clifford] wanted me to do," he told ESPN. "Just trying to be a better teammate on the floor, looking to get everyone involved."

Gordon has always been a canny passer in motion -- on the break, and after screening and diving on the pick-and-roll. He whips inside-out dimes when he draws help in the post, though smarter teams won't deploy help until Gordon proves he can punish people consistently. He has fantastic chemistry picking out Terrence Ross on backdoor cuts.

You even see hints of that vision when Gordon slices into an alleyway in the half-court:

Gordon doesn't find many easy drives because defenders ignore him on the perimeter and lay in wait in the paint. Gordon is a career 32% shooter on both 3s and midrangers. With Nikola Vucevic serving as Orlando's main screen-setter, Gordon does not get a ton of chances to wreak havoc as pick-and-roll fulcrum.

That said, a shooting center -- like Vucevic -- is the prototype frontcourt partner for Gordon. Surround him with four shooters, and Gordon can lean into more of an interior role: setting picks, cutting to the rim, crashing the glass. Gordon chilling unguarded along the arc is death for Orlando's offense.

Other teams imagine this Gordon. Several -- maybe as many as 10, maybe more -- called Orlando to express interest in trading for Gordon during the recent transaction period, sources said. Minnesota was one, sources said, and Gordon would fit there in a supporting role alongside high-volume playmakers and one of the greatest shooting bigs ever in Karl-Anthony Towns. How might Gordon look in Portland, playing off two elite guards and a snazzy-passing center in Jusuf Nurkic? What about as the nominal center in small-ball Brooklyn lineups featuring Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and two other perimeter guys?

But Orlando held firm, and Gordon remains. Clifford will urge him to keep pushing the pace, mashing in the post, screening with force, and moving away from the ball. He may not be ready to shift full time into a Draymond-style role, but he experienced the power of it last season. "Some games, I'll still run a lot of pick-and-roll," Gordon said. "Other games, I'll be the glue guy. Whatever it takes to win."

The team still has hopes for Gordon's jumper. "Because he's such a hard worker, I think it's going to happen," Clifford said. "Whether it's this year, next year, whatever, he's going to get to 37% or 38% on 3s."Gordon is also healthy after a series of nagging leg injuries hampered him last season. Just when I think I'm out ...


http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30401182/nba-redeem-team-six-players-ready-bounce-back-season
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: 

Post#1128 » by Xatticus » Fri Dec 4, 2020 2:59 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:It's probably been said before but worth mentioning again that post AS break, last season, the Magic were 1st in offensive rating until the shutdown. During that stretch they also had two double digit come from behind road wins against Memphis and Brooklyn.

For a team notoriously know for not having enough scoring, that shows they have the ability to put points on the board and also exhibit a bit of, dare I say, toughness, as well.

And with a majority of that team returning, is it crazy to think they can replicate that same or similar output?



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This is the sort of thinking that has us in our present predicament. You expect statistical anomalies such as this. It's the 'needle in the haystack' phenomenon. When you calculate for 95% confidence, you are still wrong 5% of the time. This is why the larger sample is almost invariably the better predictor. We have years of data to work with. Why make decisions based on a cherry-picked, 10-game sample? This is why we have doubled down on a team that is going nowhere. I'm sure Clifford was giving this same optimistic narrative up until he walked out the door for the last time in Charlotte. If you are going to get anywhere, you have to start with an honest appraisal of where you are.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1129 » by Skybox » Fri Dec 4, 2020 4:15 pm

I don't have any illusions about AG, Evan, or Vuc developing new skills-they don't need to...However, IF Fultz becomes closer to elite and develops a better shot, all 3 could be maximized. There is good reason to believe that Fultz can continue improving (and will). Evan shoots 40% from 3, has good size, and can get to the rim on closeouts. There's no reason to think he can't thrive in a role alongside an elite penetrator like Fultz (if Fultz gives defenders just enough reason to not back off of him). AG needs to be in a role like Draymond, not Paul George...Fultz can make that a reality too if he can open the floor and score at a much higher level. I could easily see AG go 14/8/5 with great D (and thought I would on another team). Vuc is already a great player and among the most consistent, if not glamorous, in the league. Once he becomes the second or third best player on the team - it's a great team.

This team DOES have significant and reasonable opportunity for significant growth with Fultz, Bamba and two incoming first rounders who were significantly downgraded for different reasons (Okeke injury, Cole went from top prospect to disappointing freshman).

I wanted Westbrook-even if he only had a couple more elite years, but I'd be even happier to see Fultz become Westbrook and thrill us for 10 years.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1130 » by zaymon » Fri Dec 4, 2020 4:15 pm

Asked what barriers he can break within his own game Gordon replied he wants to suprise himself and everybody.
Here we go again. I hope he will adjust sooner than last year.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1131 » by Bakomagic » Fri Dec 4, 2020 8:49 pm

zaymon wrote:Asked what barriers he can break within his own game Gordon replied he wants to suprise himself and everybody.
Here we go again. I hope he will adjust sooner than last year.


He’s fine, he works his tail off on defense and is a very willing passer.

I’m ok if he takes a wild shot or two when he’s feeling good offensively.

AG is far down the list of players that hurt our offense, which lacks enough talent to be any good anyway.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1132 » by KillMonger » Sat Dec 5, 2020 4:54 am

Bakomagic wrote:
zaymon wrote:Asked what barriers he can break within his own game Gordon replied he wants to suprise himself and everybody.
Here we go again. I hope he will adjust sooner than last year.


He’s fine, he works his tail off on defense and is a very willing passer.

I’m ok if he takes a wild shot or two when he’s feeling good offensively.

AG is far down the list of players that hurt our offense, which lacks enough talent to be any good anyway.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1133 » by Bakomagic » Sat Dec 5, 2020 5:14 am

KillMonger wrote:
Bakomagic wrote:
zaymon wrote:Asked what barriers he can break within his own game Gordon replied he wants to suprise himself and everybody.
Here we go again. I hope he will adjust sooner than last year.


He’s fine, he works his tail off on defense and is a very willing passer.

I’m ok if he takes a wild shot or two when he’s feeling good offensively.

AG is far down the list of players that hurt our offense, which lacks enough talent to be any good anyway.

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Haha

Cmon, I need to borrow your car right quick !
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1134 » by Furinkazan » Sat Dec 5, 2020 12:43 pm

zaymon wrote:Asked what barriers he can break within his own game Gordon replied he wants to suprise himself and everybody.
Here we go again. I hope he will adjust sooner than last year.



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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1135 » by j-ragg » Sat Dec 5, 2020 3:24 pm

I love that Zach Lowe calls us the Orlando Inertia. National media is finally catching on to how little this front office does.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1136 » by KillMonger » Sat Dec 5, 2020 3:48 pm

j-ragg wrote:I love that Zach Lowe calls us the Orlando Inertia. National media is finally catching on to how little this front office does.

because we're focusing on continuity
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1137 » by j-ragg » Sat Dec 5, 2020 4:12 pm

KillMonger wrote:
j-ragg wrote:I love that Zach Lowe calls us the Orlando Inertia. National media is finally catching on to how little this front office does.

because we're focusing on continuity

If continuity was all it took to be a good team we'd be the GSW of this era, instead of the least relevant team in the NBA.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1138 » by drsd » Sat Dec 5, 2020 5:17 pm

j-ragg wrote:If continuity was all it took to be a good team we'd be the GSW of this era, instead of the least relevant team in the NBA.


I think the point is that the "talent" of the roster itself might only be worth a 25% win-rate. But continuity takes that to 40%.

..
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1139 » by drsd » Sat Dec 5, 2020 5:29 pm

I am in a Homer mood right now.

The what-if game.

What if all of these things come to pass:

Fultz fits 37% of his three balls whilst shooting 4 a game; and all other parts of his game have modest improvements.
Bamba develops in to a consistent backup that offers positive plus/minus scoring minutes.
Gordon and Vučević do not decline.
Fournier plays his heart out in a contract year.
Ennis does not suck as a starter.
The bench scores more than last year without giving anything up on defense.
Okeke and Anthony have a positive impact on the team.

Then what? Could a 40-32 record be the absolute upside for this team???
Here is hoping the answer is a BIG yes.


..
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team" 

Post#1140 » by Xatticus » Sat Dec 5, 2020 6:27 pm

drsd wrote:
j-ragg wrote:If continuity was all it took to be a good team we'd be the GSW of this era, instead of the least relevant team in the NBA.


I think the point is that the "talent" of the roster itself might only be worth a 25% win-rate. But continuity takes that to 40%.

..


The problem is that you still suck. How about we work on getting the talent of an above-average team and then worry about continuity.
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