ImageImageImageImage

The Future is bright

Moderators: UCF, Knightro, UCFJayBird, Def Swami, Howard Mass, ChosenSavior

yoyojw17
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,825
And1: 3,446
Joined: Dec 26, 2011
Location: Gainesville,FL
 

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#121 » by yoyojw17 » Wed May 1, 2019 6:05 pm

OrlChamps2030 wrote:
Skin wrote:What the Magic did this year was literally the EASIEST thing any team in the NBA can do. Getting knocked out of the playoffs in the first round in 5 games is EASY. Competing for the playoffs in the EAST against the likes of terrible teams like Brooklyn, Detroit, Charlotte is EASY. Especially during a period when bad teams are tanking and good teams are resting players for the playoffs. I don't know what's so great about this season. Not like we got there on the heels of our young budding talent (Fultz, Isaac, Bamba). We got there because of Vucevic, Augustine, Ross and Fournier. Majority of this forum is looking for replacements over all of those 4!
Gordon didn't take a big step forward as hoped. Clifford's goal for him was 1st team All-NBA Defense. He's still a good player, but people are often including the phrase "he's a declining contract" as one of his best attributes. Jeez.

In order for our future to be bright, we need to get lucky in the draft, push for a youth movement and hope coach can develop them and eventually win with them. Kemba Walker is not coming here. Bradley Beal is not being traded for. A Nik Vucevic centered offense is not going to get us out of Round 1. He's way too soft. Locking him up with our cap space for the next 4 years is gonna spell doom. Better to look for young budding players on the verge of breaking out.


Brutal truth.

More than half the teams in the league make the playoffs, sneaking into the postseason to get your cheeks clapped in 5 is hardly something to beat your chest over.

Making it to 40 wins and getting smashed in the first round is the easy part, getting to 50 wins and advancing to the second round is the hard part

But it's progress... or does everyone think you hit that 50 win mark and playoff success is just something that a team that won 25 games last season just falls into without adding a superstar type player. crawl - walk - run.

No one is beating their chest and screaming from the mountain tops that we are now a force to be wreckin with... but you still have to stop and smell the daisies along the way. It was the Raptors... horrible matchup from the beginning. but we can say..."Good step forward guys... let's keep on going"
User avatar
MoMM
RealGM
Posts: 10,582
And1: 1,775
Joined: Jan 08, 2002
Location: Brazilian in Barcelona
Contact:
       

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#122 » by MoMM » Wed May 1, 2019 6:09 pm

OrlandO wrote:
MoMM wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Raptors also drafted Bruno Coboclo with 20# pick with Bogdan Bogdanovic, Capela,Hood, Ingles , Harris aveliable...

Not saying he is great or even better than these other guys, but Caboclo is starting to show some quality, he averaged 8/4.5 in 23mpg for Memphis in 34 games (19 starts) this season.

Caboclo shooting 37% from three on 4 attempts??? AG/Isaac need to step their game up.

Crazy, huh? After the break he is averaging 9.3ppg/5.3rpg/1.1topg with 45% FG and 41% 3PT in 25mpg.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/5331/splits
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#123 » by Skin » Wed May 1, 2019 6:26 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Hezonja, Gordon, Dipo, Isaac, Payton, Bamba ... are all lottery picks. If lottery is miracle work than at least 3 of them should have been superstars by now.
But it's not. It's blindfolded crap shoot where almost every year out of top 10 players, 6 to 7 are barley role players who got overdrafted based on false hype and hope for potential, that in most cases , simply isn't there..

When you in 60 men draft you have 3-4 stars, spread around 60 picks, you consider that draft success. It means you have around 5% to land star with 1 pick . Second round picks and probability to get even role player is simply terrible. 76,3% of ALL second round picks play less than 3 years in nba. ( 26% of them never play ).

Could Magic "tank better" ? Sure. But alternatives with picks they had, and guys who were drafted over them were not really that amazing-
2013- 2# pick they could draft whoever they wanted because nobody expected Bennett- they drafted DIpo who never become anything more ( for them ) but role player
2014- 4# pick Wiggins ( sucks) , Parker ( sucks) , Embiid ( probably would pass on him because of injury). Gordon was solid pick, but much like Oladipo, never turned into anything special
2015- Hezonja 5th - KAT ( no success in playoffs yet , still on rebuilding team), Russell -dumped in salary dump trade, panned out for other, not team that drafted him, Jah- complete dumpster fire, Porzingis- already traded , great talent, huge injury risk
2017- 6th pick Isaac. Alternatives - 1# pick who plays on Magic ( well doesn't really play...), Lonzo can't Ball, Tatum as future star, Jackson as future Euroleague prospect, Fox as really nice player but not top tear star
2018- so here we are , and after years of tanking , this might be first draft were you would actually regret not to tank harder for Doncic, Ayton, Young, Bagley or JJJR but even that is up in the air ,because we know for fact that team could, if they wanted to, trade down for SGA, because Clippers tried to move up.

So in theory they could have had Embiid and Tatum ,but that's just theory, because nobody can guarantee you that they would actually take them, especially Tatum who was traded for 1# pick and Magic simply never had chance to land him, without winning lottery ( and even if they did, they would probably draft Fultz who they have now ).
Others like Russell and Zingis were both already traded so former teams didn't even value them THAT much.
You could make case for KAT .... but again ,we take about handful of names with complete hindsight and 3,4,5 years of evidence to support it. But that's not what draft is all about, i remember in 2014 half of board famming all over Exum and that's a thing with a lottery- it's lottery and gambling.

Magic could have won 0 games this year and still draft 5th with Zion, Barrett, Morant, Culver , White gone so who would they take? Another longboiii or Cam Reddish, 34% FG "shooting expert" ? :roll:

The fact that you don't have to totally tank in order to get a top 5 pick is even better for a team like us who refuses to do so properly. But I'll answer your question on who would they take if those 5 were gone... DeAndre Hunter, Darius Garland are the Top 2 in my eyes. With the frustrations over Fournier and Fultz possibly not being ready, either of those 2 guys would be HUGE. It would've made us one step closer to being a legitimate contender vs being a 1st round loss pretender (who thinks they are legit). Our front office, coaching staff and players probably love the smell of their own poo after making it to the playoffs for the first time in what 7, 8 years? BIG MISTAKE if they think they need to keep this core together.

2013 - Oladipo - Selected - Should've chose to keep him and be patient, but folks don't tolerate patience around here.
2014 - Embiid - 1 pick away - Bull crap they would pass him due to injury. Embiid wasn't falling out of the Top 3. Not too mention, we passed on Booker and Lavine for Elfrid that year.
2015 - Porzingis - 1 pick away - Agreed, great talent, huge injury risk.
2016 - Murray - 5 picks away - Stupid Martin/Skiles thought playoffs were more important than player development. Should've kept Dipo and our 1st. Could've ended up with Jamaal Murray or if we stayed at 11, then Taurean Prince or Sabonis.
2017 - Isaac - Selected
2018 - Doncic/Young - 1-3 picks away.

How many times did I say "selected" or "1 pick away"? How many times have the Magic made a late season winning streak when everyone else is trying to lose? This has been so frustrating. Tanking is only half of it, picking the right guy is the other half... but I'll still take any combination of those guys over what we have now.

The other thing about having a high pick is that it can be used as trade commodity. You don't even need to keep the pick if we're like you and not confident in knowing who to select because you think it's all slim odds and pure luck.
User avatar
tiderulz
RealGM
Posts: 36,928
And1: 14,851
Joined: Jun 16, 2010
Location: Atlanta
 

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#124 » by tiderulz » Wed May 1, 2019 6:43 pm

yoyojw17 wrote:
OrlChamps2030 wrote:
Skin wrote:What the Magic did this year was literally the EASIEST thing any team in the NBA can do. Getting knocked out of the playoffs in the first round in 5 games is EASY. Competing for the playoffs in the EAST against the likes of terrible teams like Brooklyn, Detroit, Charlotte is EASY. Especially during a period when bad teams are tanking and good teams are resting players for the playoffs. I don't know what's so great about this season. Not like we got there on the heels of our young budding talent (Fultz, Isaac, Bamba). We got there because of Vucevic, Augustine, Ross and Fournier. Majority of this forum is looking for replacements over all of those 4!
Gordon didn't take a big step forward as hoped. Clifford's goal for him was 1st team All-NBA Defense. He's still a good player, but people are often including the phrase "he's a declining contract" as one of his best attributes. Jeez.

In order for our future to be bright, we need to get lucky in the draft, push for a youth movement and hope coach can develop them and eventually win with them. Kemba Walker is not coming here. Bradley Beal is not being traded for. A Nik Vucevic centered offense is not going to get us out of Round 1. He's way too soft. Locking him up with our cap space for the next 4 years is gonna spell doom. Better to look for young budding players on the verge of breaking out.


Brutal truth.

More than half the teams in the league make the playoffs, sneaking into the postseason to get your cheeks clapped in 5 is hardly something to beat your chest over.

Making it to 40 wins and getting smashed in the first round is the easy part, getting to 50 wins and advancing to the second round is the hard part

But it's progress... or does everyone think you hit that 50 win mark and playoff success is just something that a team that won 25 games last season just falls into without adding a superstar type player. crawl - walk - run.

No one is beating their chest and screaming from the mountain tops that we are now a force to be wreckin with... but you still have to stop and smell the daisies along the way. It was the Raptors... horrible matchup from the beginning. but we can say..."Good step forward guys... let's keep on going"

to add to that, i think only New York was actively tanking the entire season. Atlanta was trying to win games at the end. And Charlotte and Miami were in it until the end. Utah went out in 5 games, so did OKC.
yoyojw17
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,825
And1: 3,446
Joined: Dec 26, 2011
Location: Gainesville,FL
 

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#125 » by yoyojw17 » Wed May 1, 2019 6:58 pm

Skin wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Hezonja, Gordon, Dipo, Isaac, Payton, Bamba ... are all lottery picks. If lottery is miracle work than at least 3 of them should have been superstars by now.
But it's not. It's blindfolded crap shoot where almost every year out of top 10 players, 6 to 7 are barley role players who got overdrafted based on false hype and hope for potential, that in most cases , simply isn't there..

When you in 60 men draft you have 3-4 stars, spread around 60 picks, you consider that draft success. It means you have around 5% to land star with 1 pick . Second round picks and probability to get even role player is simply terrible. 76,3% of ALL second round picks play less than 3 years in nba. ( 26% of them never play ).

Could Magic "tank better" ? Sure. But alternatives with picks they had, and guys who were drafted over them were not really that amazing-
2013- 2# pick they could draft whoever they wanted because nobody expected Bennett- they drafted DIpo who never become anything more ( for them ) but role player
2014- 4# pick Wiggins ( sucks) , Parker ( sucks) , Embiid ( probably would pass on him because of injury). Gordon was solid pick, but much like Oladipo, never turned into anything special
2015- Hezonja 5th - KAT ( no success in playoffs yet , still on rebuilding team), Russell -dumped in salary dump trade, panned out for other, not team that drafted him, Jah- complete dumpster fire, Porzingis- already traded , great talent, huge injury risk
2017- 6th pick Isaac. Alternatives - 1# pick who plays on Magic ( well doesn't really play...), Lonzo can't Ball, Tatum as future star, Jackson as future Euroleague prospect, Fox as really nice player but not top tear star
2018- so here we are , and after years of tanking , this might be first draft were you would actually regret not to tank harder for Doncic, Ayton, Young, Bagley or JJJR but even that is up in the air ,because we know for fact that team could, if they wanted to, trade down for SGA, because Clippers tried to move up.

So in theory they could have had Embiid and Tatum ,but that's just theory, because nobody can guarantee you that they would actually take them, especially Tatum who was traded for 1# pick and Magic simply never had chance to land him, without winning lottery ( and even if they did, they would probably draft Fultz who they have now ).
Others like Russell and Zingis were both already traded so former teams didn't even value them THAT much.
You could make case for KAT .... but again ,we take about handful of names with complete hindsight and 3,4,5 years of evidence to support it. But that's not what draft is all about, i remember in 2014 half of board famming all over Exum and that's a thing with a lottery- it's lottery and gambling.

Magic could have won 0 games this year and still draft 5th with Zion, Barrett, Morant, Culver , White gone so who would they take? Another longboiii or Cam Reddish, 34% FG "shooting expert" ? :roll:

The fact that you don't have to totally tank in order to get a top 5 pick is even better for a team like us who refuses to do so properly. But I'll answer your question on who would they take if those 5 were gone... DeAndre Hunter, Darius Garland are the Top 2 in my eyes. With the frustrations over Fournier and Fultz possibly not being ready, either of those 2 guys would be HUGE. It would've made us one step closer to being a legitimate contender vs being a 1st round loss pretender (who thinks they are legit). Our front office, coaching staff and players probably love the smell of their own poo after making it to the playoffs for the first time in what 7, 8 years? BIG MISTAKE if they think they need to keep this core together.

2013 - Oladipo - Selected - Should've chose to keep him and be patient, but folks don't tolerate patience around here.
2014 - Embiid - 1 pick away - Bull crap they would pass him due to injury. Embiid wasn't falling out of the Top 3. Not too mention, we passed on Booker and Lavine for Elfrid that year.
2015 - Porzingis - 1 pick away - Agreed, great talent, huge injury risk.
2016 - Murray - 5 picks away - Stupid Martin/Skiles thought playoffs were more important than player development. Should've kept Dipo and our 1st. Could've ended up with Jamaal Murray or if we stayed at 11, then Taurean Prince or Sabonis.
2017 - Isaac - Selected
2018 - Doncic/Young - 1-3 picks away.

How many times did I say "selected" or "1 pick away"? How many times have the Magic made a late season winning streak when everyone else is trying to lose? This has been so frustrating. Tanking is only half of it, picking the right guy is the other half... but I'll still take any combination of those guys over what we have now.

The other thing about having a high pick is that it can be used as trade commodity. You don't even need to keep the pick if we're like you and not confident in knowing who to select because you think it's all slim odds and pure luck.

It sucks....but the game of "Should've... could've... would've" is too easy to play at this point... and could be played for pretty much every team in the league. :-/
User avatar
BadMofoPimp
RealGM
Posts: 49,058
And1: 12,513
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
Location: In the Paint

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#126 » by BadMofoPimp » Wed May 1, 2019 7:22 pm

Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:What the Magic did this year was literally the EASIEST thing any team in the NBA can do. Getting knocked out of the playoffs in the first round in 5 games is EASY. Competing for the playoffs in the EAST against the likes of terrible teams like Brooklyn, Detroit, Charlotte is EASY. Especially during a period when bad teams are tanking and good teams are resting players for the playoffs. I don't know what's so great about this season. Not like we got there on the heels of our young budding talent (Fultz, Isaac, Bamba). We got there because of Vucevic, Augustine, Ross and Fournier. Majority of this forum is looking for replacements over all of those 4!
Gordon didn't take a big step forward as hoped. Clifford's goal for him was 1st team All-NBA Defense. He's still a good player, but people are often including the phrase "he's a declining contract" as one of his best attributes. Jeez.

In order for our future to be bright, we need to get lucky in the draft, push for a youth movement and hope coach can develop them and eventually win with them. Kemba Walker is not coming here. Bradley Beal is not being traded for. A Nik Vucevic centered offense is not going to get us out of Round 1. He's way too soft. Locking him up with our cap space for the next 4 years is gonna spell doom. Better to look for young budding players on the verge of breaking out.


Warriors went to the playoffs one time in 18 years before getting lucky. It ain't that easy getting lucky. Maybe we need another 10-15 years sucking arse before we get lucky.

We had our chance to tank right but we never committed to it. If we did maybe we "get lucky" with Oladipo (oops), Embiid, Porzingis, Doncic, Young.... It's not "luck". It's tanking right. Stop thinking we "deserve" to be in the playoffs because we haven't been there in a long time. Friggin team fired Vaughn in his 3rd season because they thought they should be in the playoffs. C'mon man!


With the new draft rules in place, it will all be about luck (at most 15%) getting a top 3 pick. Tanking ain't what it used to be. Hence, either suck for 10-15 years and pray to god you get lucky or try to build team old fashioned way.
Image

Provin Ya'll Wrong!!!
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#127 » by Skin » Wed May 1, 2019 7:59 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Warriors went to the playoffs one time in 18 years before getting lucky. It ain't that easy getting lucky. Maybe we need another 10-15 years sucking arse before we get lucky.

We had our chance to tank right but we never committed to it. If we did maybe we "get lucky" with Oladipo (oops), Embiid, Porzingis, Doncic, Young.... It's not "luck". It's tanking right. Stop thinking we "deserve" to be in the playoffs because we haven't been there in a long time. Friggin team fired Vaughn in his 3rd season because they thought they should be in the playoffs. C'mon man!


With the new draft rules in place, it will all be about luck (at most 15%) getting a top 3 pick. Tanking ain't what it used to be. Hence, either suck for 10-15 years and pray to god you get lucky or try to build team old fashioned way.

Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?
pepe1991
RealGM
Posts: 23,178
And1: 19,216
Joined: Jan 10, 2016
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#128 » by pepe1991 » Wed May 1, 2019 9:04 pm

Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:We had our chance to tank right but we never committed to it. If we did maybe we "get lucky" with Oladipo (oops), Embiid, Porzingis, Doncic, Young.... It's not "luck". It's tanking right. Stop thinking we "deserve" to be in the playoffs because we haven't been there in a long time. Friggin team fired Vaughn in his 3rd season because they thought they should be in the playoffs. C'mon man!


With the new draft rules in place, it will all be about luck (at most 15%) getting a top 3 pick. Tanking ain't what it used to be. Hence, either suck for 10-15 years and pray to god you get lucky or try to build team old fashioned way.

Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?


Actual question is what is your way moving forward ,since it's well established that tanking isn't valid strategy any more, yet you cry about things that ( did not) happen in past. To me it's just water under the bridge, not solution for present , or future.
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#129 » by Skin » Wed May 1, 2019 9:41 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
With the new draft rules in place, it will all be about luck (at most 15%) getting a top 3 pick. Tanking ain't what it used to be. Hence, either suck for 10-15 years and pray to god you get lucky or try to build team old fashioned way.

Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?


Actual question is what is your way moving forward ,since it's well established that tanking isn't valid strategy any more, yet you cry
about things that ( did not) happen in past. To me it's just water under the bridge, not solution for present , or future.

Who says it's not a valid strategy? The lottery always had a high luck factor. If anything, the new lottery system favors the Magic's style of "trying to win, when they shouldn't". Meaning, we don't have to be a bottom 3 team in order to have a shot at a Top 3 pick and miss elite talents by being 1 pick away. We can be a bottom 5 team and have an equal shot! Imo, that suits us great!

Let Softevuc and Coin Toss Ross walk away in FA.

Get rid of Fournier and Augustin. These are veterans who don't accept coming off the bench.

Trade #16 and next year's 1st for Darius Garland. Trade 2nd rounder + cash incentives (or whatever creative things GMs do to get a late 1st/early 2nd) to draft Chuma Okeke.

Sign Kelly Oubre with the money saved on Vuc/Ross.

Base the new team on Garland, Fultz, Oubre, Okeke, Iwundu, Isaac, Gordon, Bamba, Birch and go from there.

That's a young, exciting, fast, uptempo team based on defense, length and athleticism with a lot of outside shooting potential. Just water them regularly, give em enough sun and watch them bloom. Be patient, don't cover them in shade by signing veteran FAs like Jeff Green who will role block them.

Go ahead and show me your way now.
ezzzp
Head Coach
Posts: 6,425
And1: 3,462
Joined: Aug 25, 2009
 

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#130 » by ezzzp » Wed May 1, 2019 10:28 pm

Skin wrote:It would've made us one step closer to being a legitimate contender vs being a 1st round loss pretender (who thinks they are legit).


That's a pretty big assumption. Odds aren't actual...and player performance and health are not guarantees:

Spoiler:
• 2012-2013 Worst Record / 2013 Actual Draft Pick

1 Orlando = 2 (V Oladipo)
2 Charlotte = 4 (C Zeller)
3 Cleveland = 1 (A Bennett)
4 Phoenix = 5 (A Len)
5 New Orleans = 6 (N Noel)
6 Sacramento = 7 (B Mclemore)
7 Washington = 3 (O Porter)

...Giannis Antetokuonmpo (15), Rudy Gobert (27), CJ McCollum (10)


• 2013-2014 Worst Record / 2014 Actual Draft Pick

1 Milwaukee = 2 (J Parker)
2 Philadelphia = 3 (J Embiid)
3 Orlando = 4 (A Gordon)
4 Utah = 5 (D Exum)
5 Boston = 6 (M Smart)
6 LA Lakers = 7 (J Randle)
7 Sacramento = 8 (N Stauskus)
8 Detroit = 9(S Johnson)
9 Cleveland = 1 (A Wiggins)

...Nikola Jokic (41), Clint Capella (25), Gary Harris (19), Jusuf Nurkic (16), Kyle Anderson (30), Spencer Dinwiddie (38)

• 2014-2015 Worst Record / 2015 Actual Draft Pick

1 Minnesota = 1 (K Towns)
2 New York = 4 (K Porzingis)
3 Philadelphia = 3 (J Okafor)
4 LA Lakers = 2 (D Russell)
5 Orlando = 5 (M Hezonja)

...Devin Booker (13), Myles Turner (11), Josh Richardson (40), Montrezl Harrell (32)

• 2015-2016 Worst Record / 2015 Actual Draft Pick

1 Philadelphia = 1 (B Simmons)
2 LA Lakers = 2 (B Ingram)
3 Brooklyn/Boston = 3 (J Brown)
4 Phoenix = 4 (D Bender)
5 Minnesota = 5 (K Dunn)
6 New Orleans = 6 (B Hield)
7 New York/Toronto = 9 (J Poetle)
8 Sacramento = 8 (M Chriss)
9 Milwaukee = 10 (T Maker)
10 Denver = 7 (J Murray)
11 Orlando/OKC = 11 (D Sabonis)

...Paskal Siakim (27), M Brogdon (36), Carris Levert (20), DeJontay Murray (29)

• 2016-2017 Worst Record / 2017 Actual Draft Pick

1 Brooklyn/Boston = 1 (J Tatum)
2 Phoenix = 4 (J Jackson)
3 LA Lakers = 2 (L Ball)
4 Philadelphia = 3 (M Fultz)
5 Orlando = 6 (J Isaac)
6 New York = 8 (F Ntilikina)
7 Minnesota/Chicago = 7 (L Markannen)
8 Sacramento = 5 (D Fox)

...Donavon Mitchell (13), Jarret Allen (22), Kyle Kuzma (27)



Legit contenders aren't built in one step + they are constructed in a variety of ways. All take multiple years and numerous transactions + some luck to assemble. This roster is just a very early stage of what will be a totally different roster once actual contention is achieved. Anyone thinking this group will be together in 2-3 years hasn't been paying attention to the NBA's contract cycles and player movement trends.
User avatar
BadMofoPimp
RealGM
Posts: 49,058
And1: 12,513
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
Location: In the Paint

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#131 » by BadMofoPimp » Wed May 1, 2019 10:49 pm

Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:We had our chance to tank right but we never committed to it. If we did maybe we "get lucky" with Oladipo (oops), Embiid, Porzingis, Doncic, Young.... It's not "luck". It's tanking right. Stop thinking we "deserve" to be in the playoffs because we haven't been there in a long time. Friggin team fired Vaughn in his 3rd season because they thought they should be in the playoffs. C'mon man!


With the new draft rules in place, it will all be about luck (at most 15%) getting a top 3 pick. Tanking ain't what it used to be. Hence, either suck for 10-15 years and pray to god you get lucky or try to build team old fashioned way.

Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?


So, 5 straight top 10 picks was the wrong way? The top 4 teams in the NBA did not have to be one of the worst 3 teams in the NBA for multiple years to get to where they are. They did it the right way.
Image

Provin Ya'll Wrong!!!
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#132 » by Skin » Wed May 1, 2019 11:06 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Skin wrote:It would've made us one step closer to being a legitimate contender vs being a 1st round loss pretender (who thinks they are legit).


That's a pretty big assumption. Odds aren't actual...and player performance and health are not guarantees:

Spoiler:
• 2012-2013 Worst Record / 2013 Actual Draft Pick

1 Orlando = 2 (V Oladipo)
2 Charlotte = 4 (C Zeller)
3 Cleveland = 1 (A Bennett)
4 Phoenix = 5 (A Len)
5 New Orleans = 6 (N Noel)
6 Sacramento = 7 (B Mclemore)
7 Washington = 3 (O Porter)

...Giannis Antetokuonmpo (15), Rudy Gobert (27), CJ McCollum (10)


• 2013-2014 Worst Record / 2014 Actual Draft Pick

1 Milwaukee = 2 (J Parker)
2 Philadelphia = 3 (J Embiid)
3 Orlando = 4 (A Gordon)
4 Utah = 5 (D Exum)
5 Boston = 6 (M Smart)
6 LA Lakers = 7 (J Randle)
7 Sacramento = 8 (N Stauskus)
8 Detroit = 9(S Johnson)
9 Cleveland = 1 (A Wiggins)

...Nikola Jokic (41), Clint Capella (25), Gary Harris (19), Jusuf Nurkic (16), Kyle Anderson (30), Spencer Dinwiddie (38)

• 2014-2015 Worst Record / 2015 Actual Draft Pick

1 Minnesota = 1 (K Towns)
2 New York = 4 (K Porzingis)
3 Philadelphia = 3 (J Okafor)
4 LA Lakers = 2 (D Russell)
5 Orlando = 5 (M Hezonja)

...Devin Booker (13), Myles Turner (11), Josh Richardson (40), Montrezl Harrell (32)

• 2015-2016 Worst Record / 2015 Actual Draft Pick

1 Philadelphia = 1 (B Simmons)
2 LA Lakers = 2 (B Ingram)
3 Brooklyn/Boston = 3 (J Brown)
4 Phoenix = 4 (D Bender)
5 Minnesota = 5 (K Dunn)
6 New Orleans = 6 (B Hield)
7 New York/Toronto = 9 (J Poetle)
8 Sacramento = 8 (M Chriss)
9 Milwaukee = 10 (T Maker)
10 Denver = 7 (J Murray)
11 Orlando/OKC = 11 (D Sabonis)

...Paskal Siakim (27), M Brogdon (36), Carris Levert (20), DeJontay Murray (29)

• 2016-2017 Worst Record / 2017 Actual Draft Pick

1 Brooklyn/Boston = 1 (J Tatum)
2 Phoenix = 4 (J Jackson)
3 LA Lakers = 2 (L Ball)
4 Philadelphia = 3 (M Fultz)
5 Orlando = 6 (J Isaac)
6 New York = 8 (F Ntilikina)
7 Minnesota/Chicago = 7 (L Markannen)
8 Sacramento = 5 (D Fox)

...Donavon Mitchell (13), Jarret Allen (22), Kyle Kuzma (27)



Legit contenders aren't built in one step + they are constructed in a variety of ways. All take multiple years and numerous transactions + some luck to assemble. This roster is just a very early stage of what will be a totally different roster once actual contention is achieved. Anyone thinking this group will be together in 2-3 years hasn't been paying attention to the NBA's contract cycles and player movement trends.

Right and I just said, it would take us "one step closer". I agree that any team based on a youth development rebuild would take years to become a cohsive unit. Sometimes youth doesn't fit or achieve what you want and you have to find a rebalance... ie. Maybe Gordon becomes a guy that needs to be traded for a better fit.
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#133 » by Skin » Wed May 1, 2019 11:10 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
With the new draft rules in place, it will all be about luck (at most 15%) getting a top 3 pick. Tanking ain't what it used to be. Hence, either suck for 10-15 years and pray to god you get lucky or try to build team old fashioned way.

Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?


So, 5 straight top 10 picks was the wrong way? The top 4 teams in the NBA did not have to be one of the worst 3 teams in the NBA for multiple years to get to where they are. They did it the right way.

You say "Top 10 picks" like there are gold all the way to pick 10. In reality, it's rare that there is even an elite Top 3 in most drafts. This isn't the NFL draft bro. 7 rounds, ~300 players.

Heck yes, we did it wrong and we are suffering now for it.

So now... will you answer back, I wonder??? What is YOUR way forward?
User avatar
BadMofoPimp
RealGM
Posts: 49,058
And1: 12,513
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
Location: In the Paint

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#134 » by BadMofoPimp » Wed May 1, 2019 11:24 pm

Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?


So, 5 straight top 10 picks was the wrong way? The top 4 teams in the NBA did not have to be one of the worst 3 teams in the NBA for multiple years to get to where they are. They did it the right way.

You say "Top 10 picks" like there are gold all the way to pick 10. In reality, it's rare that there is even an elite Top 3 in most drafts. This isn't the NFL draft bro. 7 rounds, ~300 players.

Heck yes, we did it wrong and we are suffering now for it.

So now... will you answer back, I wonder??? What is YOUR way forward?


So do you suggest that the team tank another 10 years at 15% chance each year of getting a top 3 pick after already suffering through the last 6.

The top 4 teams didn't have to tank, neither should the Magic. By stacking assets, the team can become a player in Free Agency and/or future trades. Teams don't have to tank for 10-15 years praying to god they win the 15% chance at a top 3 pick then pray to god again that player is more Embiid than Thabeet.

Did I mention the top 4 teams in the NBA this season did not have to tank to get to where they are at. And, the Sixers got super lucky they won Embiid in the lottery, otherwise they would still be a bottom feeder.
Image

Provin Ya'll Wrong!!!
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#135 » by Skin » Wed May 1, 2019 11:33 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
So, 5 straight top 10 picks was the wrong way? The top 4 teams in the NBA did not have to be one of the worst 3 teams in the NBA for multiple years to get to where they are. They did it the right way.

You say "Top 10 picks" like there are gold all the way to pick 10. In reality, it's rare that there is even an elite Top 3 in most drafts. This isn't the NFL draft bro. 7 rounds, ~300 players.

Heck yes, we did it wrong and we are suffering now for it.

So now... will you answer back, I wonder??? What is YOUR way forward?


So do you suggest that the team tank another 10 years at 15% chance each year of getting a top 3 pick after already suffering through the last 6.

The top 4 teams didn't have to tank, neither should the Magic. By stacking assets, the team can become a player in Free Agency and/or future trades. Teams don't have to tank for 10-15 years praying to god they win the 15% chance at a top 3 pick then pray to god again that player is more Embiid than Thabeet.

Did I mention the top 4 teams in the NBA this season did not have to tank to get to where they are at. And, the Sixers got super lucky they won Embiid in the lottery, otherwise they would still be a bottom feeder.

No, you already saw my way forward. We don't have to start over from scratch (just yet).

So what's your way forward?
Bonafide89
Junior
Posts: 286
And1: 160
Joined: Apr 12, 2018

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#136 » by Bonafide89 » Thu May 2, 2019 12:33 am

pepe1991 wrote:Hezonja, Gordon, Dipo, Isaac, Payton, Bamba ... are all lottery picks. If lottery is miracle work than at least 3 of them should have been superstars by now.
But it's not. It's blindfolded crap shoot where almost every year out of top 10 players, 6 to 7 are barley role players who got overdrafted based on false hype and hope for potential, that in most cases , simply isn't there..

When you in 60 men draft you have 3-4 stars, spread around 60 picks, you consider that draft success. It means you have around 5% to land star with 1 pick . Second round picks and probability to get even role player is simply terrible. 76,3% of ALL second round picks play less than 3 years in nba. ( 26% of them never play ).

Could Magic "tank better" ? Sure. But alternatives with picks they had, and guys who were drafted over them were not really that amazing-
2013- 2# pick they could draft whoever they wanted because nobody expected Bennett- they drafted DIpo who never become anything more ( for them ) but role player
2014- 4# pick Wiggins ( sucks) , Parker ( sucks) , Embiid ( probably would pass on him because of injury). Gordon was solid pick, but much like Oladipo, never turned into anything special
2015- Hezonja 5th - KAT ( no success in playoffs yet , still on rebuilding team), Russell -dumped in salary dump trade, panned out for other, not team that drafted him, Jah- complete dumpster fire, Porzingis- already traded , great talent, huge injury risk
2017- 6th pick Isaac. Alternatives - 1# pick who plays on Magic ( well doesn't really play...), Lonzo can't Ball, Tatum as future star, Jackson as future Euroleague prospect, Fox as really nice player but not top tear star
2018- so here we are , and after years of tanking , this might be first draft were you would actually regret not to tank harder for Doncic, Ayton, Young, Bagley or JJJR but even that is up in the air ,because we know for fact that team could, if they wanted to, trade down for SGA, because Clippers tried to move up.

So in theory they could have had Embiid and Tatum ,but that's just theory, because nobody can guarantee you that they would actually take them, especially Tatum who was traded for 1# pick and Magic simply never had chance to land him, without winning lottery ( and even if they did, they would probably draft Fultz who they have now ).
Others like Russell and Zingis were both already traded so former teams didn't even value them THAT much.
You could make case for KAT .... but again ,we take about handful of names with complete hindsight and 3,4,5 years of evidence to support it. But that's not what draft is all about, i remember in 2014 half of board famming all over Exum and that's a thing with a lottery- it's lottery and gambling.

Magic could have won 0 games this year and still draft 5th with Zion, Barrett, Morant, Culver , White gone so who would they take? Another longboiii or Cam Reddish, 34% FG "shooting expert" ? :roll:
Way too early to judge the '17 or '18 draft.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app
Bonafide89
Junior
Posts: 286
And1: 160
Joined: Apr 12, 2018

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#137 » by Bonafide89 » Thu May 2, 2019 12:50 am

BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
So, 5 straight top 10 picks was the wrong way? The top 4 teams in the NBA did not have to be one of the worst 3 teams in the NBA for multiple years to get to where they are. They did it the right way.

You say "Top 10 picks" like there are gold all the way to pick 10. In reality, it's rare that there is even an elite Top 3 in most drafts. This isn't the NFL draft bro. 7 rounds, ~300 players.

Heck yes, we did it wrong and we are suffering now for it.

So now... will you answer back, I wonder??? What is YOUR way forward?


So do you suggest that the team tank another 10 years at 15% chance each year of getting a top 3 pick after already suffering through the last 6.

The top 4 teams didn't have to tank, neither should the Magic. By stacking assets, the team can become a player in Free Agency and/or future trades. Teams don't have to tank for 10-15 years praying to god they win the 15% chance at a top 3 pick then pray to god again that player is more Embiid than Thabeet.

Did I mention the top 4 teams in the NBA this season did not have to tank to get to where they are at. And, the Sixers got super lucky they won Embiid in the lottery, otherwise they would still be a bottom feeder.
Yes, they got Embiid who was a huge question mark going into the draft...AND he missed his first two seasons and he was close to being the next Sam Bowie.

Noteworthy players they acquired on draft night.

MCW pick #11 (No longer on team)
Nerlens Noel pick #6 (No longer on team)
Jahlil Okafor pick #3 (No longer on team)
Markelle Fultz pick #1 (No longer on team)

As far as Ben Simmons, the jury is still out on him. He's a solid player, but his lack of a jump shot is a major problem.

Embiid worries me too because he's still injury prone. He has yet to show he can remain healthy on a consistent basis.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app
User avatar
NavalAviator94
Analyst
Posts: 3,495
And1: 1,471
Joined: Jul 24, 2014
Location: Frisco, TX
     

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#138 » by NavalAviator94 » Thu May 2, 2019 4:15 am

Bonafide89 wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Skin wrote:You say "Top 10 picks" like there are gold all the way to pick 10. In reality, it's rare that there is even an elite Top 3 in most drafts. This isn't the NFL draft bro. 7 rounds, ~300 players.

Heck yes, we did it wrong and we are suffering now for it.

So now... will you answer back, I wonder??? What is YOUR way forward?


So do you suggest that the team tank another 10 years at 15% chance each year of getting a top 3 pick after already suffering through the last 6.

The top 4 teams didn't have to tank, neither should the Magic. By stacking assets, the team can become a player in Free Agency and/or future trades. Teams don't have to tank for 10-15 years praying to god they win the 15% chance at a top 3 pick then pray to god again that player is more Embiid than Thabeet.

Did I mention the top 4 teams in the NBA this season did not have to tank to get to where they are at. And, the Sixers got super lucky they won Embiid in the lottery, otherwise they would still be a bottom feeder.
Yes, they got Embiid who was a huge question mark going into the draft...AND he missed his first two seasons and he was close to being the next Sam Bowie.

Noteworthy players they acquired on draft night.

MCW pick #11 (No longer on team)
Nerlens Noel pick #6 (No longer on team)
Jahlil Okafor pick #3 (No longer on team)
Markelle Fultz pick #1 (No longer on team)

As far as Ben Simmons, the jury is still out on him. He's a solid player, but his lack of a jump shot is a major problem.

Embiid worries me too because he's still injury prone. He has yet to show he can remain healthy on a consistent basis.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app


Ouch. That’s pretty bad when you really look at it.


Sent from my iPad using RealGM mobile app
pepe1991
RealGM
Posts: 23,178
And1: 19,216
Joined: Jan 10, 2016
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#139 » by pepe1991 » Thu May 2, 2019 6:14 am

Skin wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Skin wrote:Building through the draft IS the old fashioned way. That is the way we have been avoiding.

What is your way forward?


Actual question is what is your way moving forward ,since it's well established that tanking isn't valid strategy any more, yet you cry
about things that ( did not) happen in past. To me it's just water under the bridge, not solution for present , or future.

Who says it's not a valid strategy? The lottery always had a high luck factor. If anything, the new lottery system favors the Magic's style of "trying to win, when they shouldn't". Meaning, we don't have to be a bottom 3 team in order to have a shot at a Top 3 pick and miss elite talents by being 1 pick away. We can be a bottom 5 team and have an equal shot! Imo, that suits us great!

Let Softevuc and Coin Toss Ross walk away in FA.

Get rid of Fournier and Augustin. These are veterans who don't accept coming off the bench.

Trade #16 and next year's 1st for Darius Garland. Trade 2nd rounder + cash incentives (or whatever creative things GMs do to get a late 1st/early 2nd) to draft Chuma Okeke.

Sign Kelly Oubre with the money saved on Vuc/Ross.

Base the new team on Garland, Fultz, Oubre, Okeke, Iwundu, Isaac, Gordon, Bamba, Birch and go from there.

That's a young, exciting, fast, uptempo team based on defense, length and athleticism with a lot of outside shooting potential. Just water them regularly, give em enough sun and watch them bloom. Be patient, don't cover them in shade by signing veteran FAs like Jeff Green who will role block them.

Go ahead and show me your way now.


Let Softevuc and Coin Toss Ross walk away in FA.

That's two assets less.

Get rid of Fournier and Augustin. These are veterans who don't accept coming off the bench.

Augustin played off bench for almost whole career.
In order to trade somebody you have to take something back ,and that's $24M salary you need to gain in return. Player(s) of that contracts probably won't come off bench as well.

Trade #16 and next year's 1st for Darius Garland. Trade 2nd rounder + cash incentives (or whatever creative things GMs do to get a late 1st/early 2nd) to draft Chuma Okeke.

This isn't nba 2k10 buddy.


Base the new team on Garland, Fultz, Oubre, Okeke, Iwundu, Isaac, Gordon, Bamba, Birch and go from there.That's a young, exciting, fast, uptempo team based on defense, length and athleticism with a lot of outside shooting potential. Just water them regularly, give em enough sun and watch them bloom. Be patient, don't cover them in shade by signing veteran FAs like Jeff Green who will role block them.

Back to nba 2K building team " just throw lot of kids and fast forward season and hire A+ development coach, if nobody moves to A+ potential , restart ", not something based on reality.

Dude, you can tank for 15 years and still never win first round pick, and that's whole purpose of lottery change. To stop teams to hi reset button every 2 yeras.
This draft is 2 and half players deep, everybody who drafts outside top 3 will gain another prospect who might pan out, but probably will be another Stanley Johnson /Thon Maker type prospect.
But that's nothing new. In lottery you have 14 players, even in best draft class in history (2003) only Lebron and Wade were superstars . In most drafts there is not a single superstar level player, just bunch of situational role players - occasional, situational allstars like Paul MIllsap, Horford type players and we still talk about BEST case scenarios.

Draft is something invented to give worst team boost to upgrade roster faster. Not tool that will build you superteam.
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon
Skin
RealGM
Posts: 18,514
And1: 8,804
Joined: Jul 03, 2009
   

Re: The Future is bright 

Post#140 » by Skin » Thu May 2, 2019 7:32 am

pepe1991 wrote:
Skin wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Actual question is what is your way moving forward ,since it's well established that tanking isn't valid strategy any more, yet you cry
about things that ( did not) happen in past. To me it's just water under the bridge, not solution for present , or future.

Who says it's not a valid strategy? The lottery always had a high luck factor. If anything, the new lottery system favors the Magic's style of "trying to win, when they shouldn't". Meaning, we don't have to be a bottom 3 team in order to have a shot at a Top 3 pick and miss elite talents by being 1 pick away. We can be a bottom 5 team and have an equal shot! Imo, that suits us great!

Let Softevuc and Coin Toss Ross walk away in FA.

Get rid of Fournier and Augustin. These are veterans who don't accept coming off the bench.

Trade #16 and next year's 1st for Darius Garland. Trade 2nd rounder + cash incentives (or whatever creative things GMs do to get a late 1st/early 2nd) to draft Chuma Okeke.

Sign Kelly Oubre with the money saved on Vuc/Ross.

Base the new team on Garland, Fultz, Oubre, Okeke, Iwundu, Isaac, Gordon, Bamba, Birch and go from there.

That's a young, exciting, fast, uptempo team based on defense, length and athleticism with a lot of outside shooting potential. Just water them regularly, give em enough sun and watch them bloom. Be patient, don't cover them in shade by signing veteran FAs like Jeff Green who will role block them.

Go ahead and show me your way now.


Let Softevuc and Coin Toss Ross walk away in FA.

That's two assets less.

Get rid of Fournier and Augustin. These are veterans who don't accept coming off the bench.

Augustin played off bench for almost whole career.
In order to trade somebody you have to take something back ,and that's $24M salary you need to gain in return. Player(s) of that contracts probably won't come off bench as well.

Trade #16 and next year's 1st for Darius Garland. Trade 2nd rounder + cash incentives (or whatever creative things GMs do to get a late 1st/early 2nd) to draft Chuma Okeke.

This isn't nba 2k10 buddy.


Base the new team on Garland, Fultz, Oubre, Okeke, Iwundu, Isaac, Gordon, Bamba, Birch and go from there.That's a young, exciting, fast, uptempo team based on defense, length and athleticism with a lot of outside shooting potential. Just water them regularly, give em enough sun and watch them bloom. Be patient, don't cover them in shade by signing veteran FAs like Jeff Green who will role block them.

Back to nba 2K building team " just throw lot of kids and fast forward season and hire A+ development coach, if nobody moves to A+ potential , restart ", not something based on reality.

Dude, you can tank for 15 years and still never win first round pick, and that's whole purpose of lottery change. To stop teams to hi reset button every 2 yeras.
This draft is 2 and half players deep, everybody who drafts outside top 3 will gain another prospect who might pan out, but probably will be another Stanley Johnson /Thon Maker type prospect.
But that's nothing new. In lottery you have 14 players, even in best draft class in history (2003) only Lebron and Wade were superstars . In most drafts there is not a single superstar level player, just bunch of situational role players - occasional, situational allstars like Paul MIllsap, Horford type players and we still talk about BEST case scenarios.

Draft is something invented to give worst team boost to upgrade roster faster. Not tool that will build you superteam.

You just said absolutely nothing of worth. I get it. You don't believe in building through the draft because it's too hard. You don't believe in developing young players because it takes time and you may have to keep working at it until it works. Well, these are your own opinions and weaknesses. You can't knock it respectfully. There are successful teams throughout the league and history that have built through the draft. It takes at least 2 to get the process jump started, but when you have that, that's when star FAs will start to take notice.

Go ahead and show me your way forward. I'll keep an open mind.

Return to Orlando Magic