Stay the course or rebuild now

[Xatticus]

Simons and NAW are both super interesting prospects to me. I think a team would have to overpay for them, relative to their current value.

Gordon for Simons + Ariza + POR2020 1st.

I would be shocked if Portland gave up Simons *and* the 16th pick for Aaron Gordon.

If they'd do that, I'd jump all over it in a second.

If they didn't, then don't do the deal. Otherwise we're selling short on Gordon for a player who might only be Ross Jr.

Keeping Gordon and changing the dynamic of the team is a better option than selling low.

I’d say the real upside to such a move would be to improve the value of our 2021 pick. Gordon is a great addition for Portland. We get significantly worse. It’s not just the loss of Gordon, but Simons was really hurting Portland.

[Xatticus]

If they didn't, then don't do the deal. Otherwise we're selling short on Gordon for a player who might only be Ross Jr.

Keeping Gordon and changing the dynamic of the team is a better option than selling low.

But how do you change the dynamic of the team in a meaningful way while keeping Gordon is the question?

Moving Fournier first seems like the obvious option to me. We've seen the team look different when he plays because it forces the dynamic to change. Basic addition by subtraction and forcing Fultz to step into that #2-3 role is a start.

Ive said before that I think the Vuc/Gordon front court shows some real promise. It's been looking different, and much improved, since around the all-star break.

But, that might only be enough change to prompt Fultz to step up. So if a Vuc/Gordon/Fultz top three isn't enough of an improvement, Vuc should be moved next. That would bring the biggest change since he's such a crutch for everyone - coaches and players alike.

Then you're left with Gordon/Fultz who I'm not even sure they're the strongest pairing, alongside whoever replaces Fournier and Vuc. In which case, you want a wing who can become the 2nd if not 1st option in their wake.

Who that wing would be depends on trade returns, free agency and the draft. Probably won't be a name that excites anyone up front, because that's the calibre of players we're looking at in any return - even if we trade Gordon.

Long term, though, Gordon is a better piece to keep as core moving forwards until someone arrives who can replace him.

I’m all for dumping Fournier, but I’d move Ross before Vucevic. I just don’t like how Ross is used. He is so limited and Clifford uses him to generate bad shots. Ross is good enough at hitting those shots that it doesn’t kill us, but what is the real upside there? I would like to have seen Ross in the pick-and-roll game to see if there is more to his game or not, but that hasn’t happened. Possessions end when Ross touches the ball. I believe the way Ross is used just serves to inhibit offensive growth. He will shoot you into and out of games, but we just don’t have any evidence that he can make a read and move the ball when appropriate.

[Knightro]

I’m all for dumping Fournier, but I’d move Ross before Vucevic. I just don’t like how Ross is used. He is so limited and Clifford uses him to generate bad shots. Ross is good enough at hitting those shots that it doesn’t kill us, but what is the real upside there? I would like to have seen Ross in the pick-and-roll game to see if there is more to his game or not, but that hasn’t happened. Possessions end when Ross touches the ball. I believe the way Ross is used just serves to inhibit offensive growth. He will shoot you into and out of games, but we just don’t have any evidence that he can make a read and move the ball when appropriate.

I actually think when you factor contract length and salary that Ross may be the most attractive trade asset of he, Fournier and Vucevic.

I have no problem getting rid of him.

[j-ragg]

I don't even think we'd need to trade Gordon at this point to acquire Simons.

[zaymon]

I don't even think we'd need to trade Gordon at this point to acquire Simons.

Yep, Simmons is out of rotation in Portland. Rotation that includes Hezonja. His value is far from even average.

[Max Power]

The more I look at things, I’m pretty open to an overhaul of the roster. At full strength I think this squad is capable of a first round upset against a team like Philly, but not Milwaukee or Toronto or Boston. However, this team has rarely been at full strength. I think changes are in order.

First I will defend Steve Clifford, and I’d advocate for him to remain coach. He really has done a good job here with a flawed roster. I’d like to see him rewarded by leading a highly talented roster in the future. He’s never had the chance to coach a superstar roster.

I do think we need new guys at the top. Weltman and Hammond have done some good things, but they’re close to matching Hennigans time here and his guys still lead this team. Issac was a good pick on paper, if and when he gets healthy he’s a player, and plucking Fultz from the Sixers has paid off somewhat, but the rest of this team doesn’t move the needle much. I think a new architect for the roster is necessary.

Now, the roster itself. I know I’m in the minority here, but I like Nic Vucevic, and always have. He’s arguably one of the best players in team history. I think he’s obviously the number 1 guy here, but really shouldn’t be. He’d be best served flanking a star wing in my opinion. I could go either way with Vuc. His contract may keep him here, but I can also see the team moving on from him for the sake of new blood leading the team. I’d like to see them finally acquire a star to pair with him.

Evan Fournier needs to go. He’s been solid but his mistakes have lead to a lot of losses for this team. He’s a guy that’s always looked for his own shot first and foremost and I hate that. One of Hennigans biggest flubs was choosing him over Oladipo. Making him a centerpiece was a bad long term mistake. Evan is great 6th man material like Terance Ross. But he’s too expensive and his contributions don’t move the needle. Time to bring in a new 2 guard to grow with Markelle Fultz.

Aaron Gordon has been a pretty good player for the Magic, provided some great highlights and does a lot of the little things teams need to win. He hasn’t developed into the Star we’d hoped, his consistency really is a problem. It sucks because I love the guys motor and physical play, but I think to get in a position to upgrade this roster it’s time to move on from him.

Terance Ross is difficult for me to peg. I love the game he plays as a designated scorer off the bench, but it also feels like the Magic go as he goes, and that’s a recipe for bad success long term. I’m down to keep him here but I’d also understand for the sake of progress if the Magic move him.

DJ Augustine has been a solid backup pg here. I like having his vet presence in the backcourt. I think our boards expect Isaiah Thomas (Detroit) out of him sometimes and I think that’s incredibly unfair. I can see the Magic letting him go if they rebuild and him latching onto a contender in need of point guard depth. If they keep him on a lower end contract I’m fine with that.

Wes Iwundu wasn’t my favorite Magic player for his first couple years, but he’s grown on me. He’s an effective effort guy who can make chaos happen defensively and hit an open shot. If he sticks around he’s young enough to make sense on a rebuild with cheap players. Easy enough to replace though too.

Markelle Fultz looks to be the pg of the future for this team, whether we rebuild or try to step up in contender status. If he can improve that jumper a bit more, he could still have a star turn like people expected when he was drafted.

Jonathan Issac has to get his body right. Once that happens he’s our 4 man and defensive anchor for the next 7-8 years. His game is ready, his body just needs to catch up.

MCW is the perfect 3rd pg and occasional 2 for this team. An effort guy with some fight to him. The team could use another guy or 2 with his fire. Just don’t ask him to be a primary scorer.

James Ennis is a solid 3 to start in an emergency and has been solid here. I don’t mind the vet sticking around but probably gets replaced by a younger wing.

[Knightro]

I’d need a pretty good pick to even consider this. The luster has worn off of Simons. He can’t defend and what is he actually good at offensively? Portland was a disaster when he was on the floor. There might be some upside there, but he is far from useful right now. I think Portland would jump all over this.

This feels like a little bit of a harsh take against a guy who played this entire season at 20 years old and didn't play college ball.

He definitely didn't have a good year, especially compared to the expectations people had for him after a strong summer league and preseason, but I can't completely dismiss a guy for struggling at that young of an age because a lot of guys that age are able to go on and improve.

I know DRPM really disliked Simons as a defender and graded him as one of the worst in the entire league. DBPM was a little less harsh, but still pretty bad

Portland may jump on it because they're in a much different place than the Magic, looking to find complementary players (specifically forwards) who can fit in with their all-star backcourt and their very good center.

The Magic would be gambling entirely on upside.

Yes, it would likely make Orlando a little worse in the short-term, but does that really matter? They're a 35-40 win team in the weaker conference anyway so I'm willing (if the organization feels the same remains to be seen) to take a slight step back if it puts them in a position to take a couple steps forward.

[PrimeThyme]

I’d need a pretty good pick to even consider this. The luster has worn off of Simons. He can’t defend and what is he actually good at offensively? Portland was a disaster when he was on the floor. There might be some upside there, but he is far from useful right now. I think Portland would jump all over this.

Admittedly, not much at this stage. You'd be trading for him on the basis that there is a really good offensive player in there somewhere. In theory, I think he could develop into the type of catch and shoot/pullup off the dribble jump shooter that this team desperately needs.

I do think he's flashed some potential as a secondary playmaker and has shown some elite quickness in beating guys off the dribble as well.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

But yeah, I certainly won't try to convince you that he is a good basketball player at this stage. There is a reason why he isn't cracking the rotation at this point. Some of his advanced numbers are cringeworthy. But I do think there is without a doubt some interesting raw talent there. He's the type of guard with his theoretical skillset I still think this team should be coveting. It would be interesting to see how he'd develop under Clifford, who is pretty much solely good at getting players to play a more winning style of basketball and break some bad habits.

Whether AG should be traded for him is another question for sure. I can certainly see your argument for not wanting to make such a deal. I'm of the belief that AG's contract becomes most valuable this summer, so if we are still going to commit to Isaac longterm I'd like to see us move his contract for a younger guard/SF with upside. Simons/Mikal Bridges/Lavine are three that fit that bill for me atm. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.

[dsg2021]

My 2 cents is keep Cliff for a long time. If we're going into the dark void like SAC and PHO for youth, then I would take a coach like Cliff 10/10 times. A Cliff-coached team is like an SVG-coached team, they make less mistakes on average. I just don't want to see a young team that is a turnstile on defense, it's basically ineptitude personified (on a team level).

Maybe we could pull a 1-year medical rest for Cliff though.. hah

But in truth, ORL has good value contracts and a top 6 team when healthy/improving. We should slowly make cap space, hunt super-value adds, and and play high ball (instead of low balling trade offers). Top 6 is worse than top 20, like many of us feel, but it could get us a deep enough team to start attracting real FA's or make real deals.

[Bensational]

I’m all for dumping Fournier, but I’d move Ross before Vucevic. I just don’t like how Ross is used. He is so limited and Clifford uses him to generate bad shots. Ross is good enough at hitting those shots that it doesn’t kill us, but what is the real upside there? I would like to have seen Ross in the pick-and-roll game to see if there is more to his game or not, but that hasn’t happened. Possessions end when Ross touches the ball. I believe the way Ross is used just serves to inhibit offensive growth. He will shoot you into and out of games, but we just don’t have any evidence that he can make a read and move the ball when appropriate.

That's a good point I hadn't thought of. He really can stifle the 2nd unit offense when he's off, though that 2nd unit rarely has any other options.

And dollar for dollar he's probably our best value player with a skill in demand.

[Knightro]

Here's what I realistically think will happen...

Front Office
No changes

Coaching Staff
No changes

Magic Free Agents
DJ Augustin - gone
Melvin Frazier Jr. - gone
Michael Carter Williams - back on 1 year, veteran minimum
Wes Iwundu - back on qualifying offer
Gary Clark - back on qualifying offer
Evan Fournier - opts in
James Ennis - opts in

Trades
No major trades

Draft
15. RJ Hampton
43. Malachi Flynn

Free Agency
No major additions

2020-2021 Roster
G: Fultz, Flynn, Hampton
G: Fournier, MCW, Iwundu
F: Ennis, Ross, Okeke
F: Gordon, Aminu, Clark
C: Vucevic, Bamba, Birch

[darthmerrick]

Here's another question. How much time do we give Fultz to see if he turns into an allstar? Have we seen enough to extend QO, say he gets injured next year or struggles are we committing to him for another contract?

Same with Issac. He will be out all next year, likely meaning Gordon stays. Has Issac done enough to get that next big contract without seeing how well he recovers from the ACL.

Both players have high unfulfilled potential, but could set us back if we extend one or both and they don't work out.

[J-Mezzy]

Here's another question. How much time do we give Fultz to see if he turns into an allstar? Have we seen enough to extend QO, say he gets injured next year or struggles are we committing to him for another contract?

Same with Issac. He will be out all next year, likely meaning Gordon stays. Has Issac done enough to get that next big contract without seeing how well he recovers from the ACL.

Both players have high unfulfilled potential, but could set us back if we extend one or both and they don't work out.

You don't need every prospect to become a star to sign him. If they are both proven NBA players and are available at a fair contract, you sign them. You just don't commit to build around them and continue looking for the star through draft or ::gulp:: free agency

[Dubious Kitty]

Here's what I realistically think will happen...

Front Office
No changes

Coaching Staff
No changes

Magic Free Agents
DJ Augustin - gone
Melvin Frazier Jr. - gone
Michael Carter Williams - back on 1 year, veteran minimum
Wes Iwundu - back on qualifying offer
Gary Clark - back on qualifying offer
Evan Fournier - opts in
James Ennis - opts in

Trades
No major trades

Draft
15. RJ Hampton
43. Malachi Flynn

Free Agency
No major additions

2020-2021 Roster
G: Fultz, Flynn, Hampton
G: Fournier, MCW, Iwundu
F: Ennis, Ross, Okeke
F: Gordon, Aminu, Clark
C: Vucevic, Bamba, Birch

Still running this team back again would be a crime against humanity.

[AdamTheGreek]

Can we wait for the playoffs to be done first? Opinions and viewpoints of guys can change by then both positively and negatively.

[KillMonger]

My 2 cents is keep Cliff for a long time. If we're going into the dark void like SAC and PHO for youth, then I would take a coach like Cliff 10/10 times. A Cliff-coached team is like an SVG-coached team, they make less mistakes on average. I just don't want to see a young team that is a turnstile on defense, it's basically ineptitude personified (on a team level).

Maybe we could pull a 1-year medical rest for Cliff though.. hah

But in truth, ORL has good value contracts and a top 6 team when healthy/improving. We should slowly make cap space, hunt super-value adds, and and play high ball (instead of low balling trade offers). Top 6 is worse than top 20, like many of us feel, but it could get us a deep enough team to start attracting real FA's or make real deals.

I would only be cool with Cliff still being here is if he brings in an offensive assistant coach to bring his offense into the 21st century

[Xatticus]

I’d need a pretty good pick to even consider this. The luster has worn off of Simons. He can’t defend and what is he actually good at offensively? Portland was a disaster when he was on the floor. There might be some upside there, but he is far from useful right now. I think Portland would jump all over this.

This feels like a little bit of a harsh take against a guy who played this entire season at 20 years old and didn't play college ball.

He definitely didn't have a good year, especially compared to the expectations people had for him after a strong summer league and preseason, but I can't completely dismiss a guy for struggling at that young of an age because a lot of guys that age are able to go on and improve.

I know DRPM really disliked Simons as a defender and graded him as one of the worst in the entire league. DBPM was a little less harsh, but still pretty bad

Portland may jump on it because they're in a much different place than the Magic, looking to find complementary players (specifically forwards) who can fit in with their all-star backcourt and their very good center.

The Magic would be gambling entirely on upside.

Yes, it would likely make Orlando a little worse in the short-term, but does that really matter? They're a 35-40 win team in the weaker conference anyway so I'm willing (if the organization feels the same remains to be seen) to take a slight step back if it puts them in a position to take a couple steps forward.

I'm not condemning him for eternity. What he is just isn't good enough to be the sweetener for Portland to dump some salaries to get Gordon. It's not even close to enough value. It's difficult to be optimistic about his future given what we know. Will he get better? You'd hope so... but he has a long way to go to become a useful player.

Simons has some offensive skills, but he isn't anything resembling a good offensive player. Portland had a 116.4 offensive rating in 2118 minutes without Simons on the floor. That would've been best in the league. They had a 105.9 offensive rating in the 1449 minutes that Simons played, which is awful. Which two players did he play the most minutes with? Lillard (691) and McCollum (660). His 3P% wasn't good. His finishing wasn't good. His FTr plummeted. He doesn't facilitate. He's a project.

He was taken 24th, so his salary is negligible. Portland probably wouldn't feel compelled to dump him, but I doubt they are attached to him at this point and you could probably get him as a throw-in if you bent their arm a bit. Perhaps you could dangle Aminu for some filler plus Simons. They might be missing Aminu a bit after plummeting in the standings. I don't know. Probably not.

Now... if my goal was to clear the decks and score a top-five pick next year, then I wouldn't mind picking up Simons and throwing him into the fire next year to see if he develops. You are probably going to get crushed on a nightly basis, but you will find out a lot about him along the way. There is just no chance that this is the direction our front office is going to choose. They will run this thing back. They will dress up in suits and have discussions around a conference table where they will reach the conclusion that it was encouraging that they made the playoffs despite the injuries. They will point to some small stretch of the season where the team played well and extrapolate to reach some idealistic conclusion on how good this team is when healthy. They will convince themselves that this is a young and talented team that will take the next step forward with a bit of shoring up. In short, they will rationalize why doing nothing is the right course of action.

Do i care if we take a step back? Hell no. I'm of the opinion that a step back is the only way this thing is going to get moving forward. I think for this roster, the best-case scenario for next season is another scrap for the last playoff spot, but even that might be well out of reach. Who are we going to pass up in the standings? I could easily see us adrift by the All-Star break if WAS makes some improvements or if ATL expedites their rebuild. This place will be fun if the playoffs are out of reach by the middle of next year.

[J the Drafter]

If we dump our vets it’s a sign we think we can get something better than the Bamba/Fultz/Isaac core we have now, because we will lose them too without scoring a strong immediate contributor in the draft. If we get a player who needs too much development then our current core will be at or near free agency before they improve. Isaac’s injury and Bamba’s sickness are unfortunate since they cloud the team’s future, but we don’t know how they’ll be affected by their health issues, and we still have Fultz.

Running it back means the FO has committed to our young players, because tanking is a good way to lose them.

[thelead]

Can we wait for the playoffs to be done first? Opinions and viewpoints of guys can change by then both positively and negatively.

So... you need more evaluation time?

Man, working around the ball club really rubbed off on you

[dsg2021]

Can we wait for the playoffs to be done first? Opinions and viewpoints of guys can change by then both positively and negatively.

So... you need more evaluation time?

Man, working around the ball club really rubbed off on you

Adam has a point. Gotta ride or die with our boys until its over, let’s go Magic!