Official Speculation Thread ‘18-19’: XIX: Rise of the BIG

[VFX]

True, but what is the end goal here ? Is it to get by just enough, with a win-now coach, to get blown out by a top tier team with more talent?

Vuc, who like it or not shoulders a lot of the offense, is not going to be on this team next year - maybe even by the trade deadline. With that in mind, doesn’t it make more sense to continue to build, rather than squeeze out a few more wins for the sake of immediate results. This is the same mistake this organization has made continuously by sacrificing the long term results for the short.

Unless management acquires a point guard that can grow with Bamba and Isaacs strengthened ankles, there really isn’t an end goal positive to getting a point guard to make the playoffs for this season.

I wasn't suggesting it was the right idea either. The Magic would be best suited to get as high of a lotto pick as they possibly can, but that isn't what they're going to do.

Steve Clifford isn't going to tank. He's just not. It isn't in his DNA as a coach. Knowing that Clifford is here and is going to be afforded a LOT of time to get this thing right, it's time to start adding talent.

If the Magic can acquire a player or players right now in trades that are the same caliber of players that they would chase in free agency this summer, they should go ahead and do it if the cost isn't prohibitive.

But beyond all of that, if the Magic do look to acquire a PG THIS year, it would come at the expense of Vucevic or Ross or both which would not dramatically improve the team this season anyway.

What I was saying was more of a rhetorical thing.

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the long term future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

[Knightro]

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

My feelings on what the Magic *should* do and what the Magic *will* do are pretty dramatically different. What should they do? Get as high of a draft pick as they can. Pretty obvious. There are really just two ways to land star players if you're not a destination city.

1. Draft them.
2. Trade for them after drafting intriguing young guys.

That said...

I do not, under any circumstances, believe the Orlando Magic are going to tank while Clifford is here. I don't necessarily agree with it, but that's how it most certainly is so my thought process has adjusted accordingly.

My expectation is that the Magic will end up winning somewhere between 30-35 games this year. If they don't get any lotto luck, they'll end up drafting around 8th or 9th. From there, they'll pick someone like Romeo Langford, Quinten Grimes or Kevin Porter.

They they'll go into the summer and aggressively pursue a starting caliber PG - be it Walker, Rozier, Russell in free agency or any number of potential trade targets like Wall, Conley, Murray, Jackson, Bledsoe.

Once they've acquired said PG, they'll look to fill out the rest of the roster in free agency with second tier guys. Perhaps they bring Ross back. But ultimately the goal will be to make the playoffs next season.

[WeAreVenom]

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

My feelings on what the Magic *should* do and what the Magic *will* do are pretty dramatically different. What should they do? Get as high of a draft pick as they can. Pretty obvious. There are really just two ways to land star players if you're not a destination city.

1. Draft them.
2. Trade for them after drafting intriguing young guys.

That said...

I do not, under any circumstances, believe the Orlando Magic are going to tank while Clifford is here. I don't necessarily agree with it, but that's how it most certainly is so my thought process has adjusted accordingly.

My expectation is that the Magic will end up winning somewhere between 30-35 games this year. If they don't get any lotto luck, they'll end up drafting around 8th or 9th. From there, they'll pick someone like Romeo Langford, Quinten Grimes or Kevin Porter.

They they'll go into the summer and aggressively pursue a starting caliber PG - be it Walker, Rozier, Russell in free agency or any number of potential trade targets like Wall, Conley, Murray, Jackson, Bledsoe.

Once they've acquired said PG, they'll look to fill out the rest of the roster in free agency with second tier guys. Perhaps they bring Ross back. But ultimately the goal will be to make the playoffs next season.

I'm not going to lie, I'd be beyond disappointed with that outcome......it's basically the same thing we've been doing the last couple years.

Unfortunately, I see it playing out this way.

[Xatticus]

A lot of players avoid those ankle braces and hi-top sneakers because they prefer the extra mobility in their ankles. Personally, I used to wear hi-tops until a few years ago. The low-top sneakers have increasingly become more popular.

As for the ankle braces, Isaac wore them last season too. Surprised he didn't keep wearing them this season, especially after already having an ankle injury in pre-season. I don't know how much they really help, TBH. There is data out there that they prevent incidence of ankle injuries.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3213051/

Background
Ankle injuries are the most common injury in basketball players. However, no prospective studies have been performed to determine if wearing lace-up ankle braces will reduce the incidence of ankle injuries in high school athletes.

Purpose
This trial was undertaken to determine if lace-up ankle braces reduce the incidence and severity of acute first-time and recurrent ankle injuries sustained by high school basketball players.

Design
Randomized controlled trial; Level of evidence, 1.

Methods
A total of 1460 male and female basketball players from 46 high schools were randomly assigned to a braced or control group. The braced group players wore lace-up ankle braces during the 2009–2010 basketball season. Athletic trainers recorded brace compliance, athlete exposures, and injuries. Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for demographic covariates), accounting for intracluster correlation, were utilized to compare time to first acute ankle injury between groups. Injury severity (days lost) was tested with the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.

Results
The rate of acute ankle injury (per 1000 exposures) was 0.47 in the braced group and 1.41 in the control group (Cox hazard ratio [HR] 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.20, 0.52; P <.001). The median severity of acute ankle injuries was similar (P = .23) in the braced (6 days) and control group (7 days). For players with a previous ankle injury, the incidence of acute ankle injury was 0.83 in the braced group and 1.79 in the control group (Cox HR 0.39; 95% CI 0.17, 0.90; P = .028). For players who did not report a previous ankle injury, the incidence of acute ankle injury was 0.40 in the braced group and 1.35 in the control group (Cox HR 0.30; 95% CI 0.17, 0.52, P <.001).

Conclusion
Use of lace-up ankle braces reduced the incidence but not the severity of acute ankle injuries in male and female high school basketball athletes both with and without a previous history of an ankle injury.

I think the flaw in all of this is the perception that it is about him having weak ankles, when it most probably has everything to do with bad tendencies and sloppy footwork. I sprained my ankles a lot when I was young before I got fitted with some inserts to correct a pronation issue.

This reduced my tendency to roll my ankles, but the tendency never really went away. Rather, I just improved at not fighting the roll and avoiding the damage to the connective tissues or muscles that can result from contracting the muscles when rolling the ankle.

You can see Isaac stumbles pretty regularly on the court; especially when he starts to get fatigued. He must improve his footwork if he is ever going to overcome this, but he should also naturally improve at avoiding severe ankle sprains as he continues to deal with them.

On a side note, I believe that every aspiring athlete should play soccer when they are young as it helps tremendously with footwork. Likewise, gymnastics are great for core strength and body control.

[Xatticus]

Id argue that Iwundu is outplaying Simmons right now and he should be getting Simms minutes when Isaac returns

I agree, and it's mainly because Wes shoots a lot less. If Simms only shot 3 or 4 times a game, it wouldn't be so bad!

That doesn’t make him even an average player though. Simms is playing like the worst rotation player in the league.

Iwundu just doesn’t really provide anything except the occasional hustle, while giving virtually zero offense.

I see a lot of talent in Iwundu and I believe it is worthwhile to commit a roster spot and minutes to his development. He is still learning how to fit in at both ends, but I've been very encouraged by what I've seen from him this year.

He works hard at the defensive end and has the potential to be a very good man-to-man defender. He always hustles on rotations and closeouts. He has to get stronger though.

Offensively, I'd really like to see him work on finishing through contact. He has the ability to use spin moves and body control to get point blank opportunities, but he has struggled to finish once he gets there. He is getting to the free throw line consistently though. Still, he has to become a competent shooter on catch-and-shoots if he is going to be a passable offensive player. If he does that, he is going to become a very valuable player that will probably always be worth more than he is getting paid.

Everyone wants to see stars, but rosters go 15 players deep and most players aren't on huge contracts. You need competent contributors to fill out any roster and I place a lot of value in the things that Iwundu does well.

For what it's worth, we are -3 on the season with Iwundu on the floor; so it's a bit difficult to argue that he has been a huge liability for us. If we are patient and his shooting and finishing does indeed develop, we could be handsomely rewarded with a very valuable rotation player.

[pepe1991]

All athletes are now adviced by fitness trainers to play different sports in off season to improve other aspects of their bodies.

To improve footwork as Xatticus said, soccer is good but i find tennis even better ( for athletes) it strips any fear of contact or harsh foul and improves coordination of upper and lower body and latheral quickness.

[VFX]

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

My feelings on what the Magic *should* do and what the Magic *will* do are pretty dramatically different. What should they do? Get as high of a draft pick as they can. Pretty obvious. There are really just two ways to land star players if you're not a destination city.

1. Draft them.
2. Trade for them after drafting intriguing young guys.

We are 100% on the same page with what the Magic should do. In fact, unless you are a foreign tourist, a perpetual season ticket holder, ignorant of the nba, or an 8 year old; most everyone would agree with these pretty obvious assertions. So what is the disconnect here? Why do most of us believe what they should do to rebuild while also believing they absolutely won’t by continuing this vicious cycle? Interesting.

[pepe1991]

What Magic should do:
- tank
- play young guys as go to players
- find ways to open roster spots to find some hidden gems in G league
- save cap spac and assets for major moves and trades


What Magic will do:
- go for playoffs
- probably fail or lose in first round
- lose Vučević and Ross for nothing or next to nothing
- fail in FA to land stars as usual
- find themselfs being worst next year than this year
- probably add more vets that won't be difference makers

[RickB-Orlando]

If by “starting caliber” you mean “all star” point guard, then yeah. Merely acquiring a starting level guard doesn’t make this squad a playoff team. Even if it did, it wouldn’t make Orlando remotely capable of competing with Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Boston in the east alone.

Two things...

1. I simply said the Magic would be a playoff team. I won't be surprised at all if the 8 seed in the East makes the playoffs with sub 40 wins. I think the 7 seed could also be under .500 as well.

2. I didn't say they would be competitive against the top four teams in the East, because I don't think they would be.

I am of the opinion the Magic are going to win in the low 30s with the roster they have right now, warts and all. Replace the two worst players in that rotation with two competent players and why wouldn't they win in the upper 30s?

True, but what is the end goal here ? Is it to get by just enough, with a win-now coach, to get blown out by a top tier team with more talent?

Vuc, who like it or not shoulders a lot of the offense, is not going to be on this team next year - maybe even by the trade deadline. With that in mind, doesn’t it make more sense to continue to build, rather than squeeze out a few more wins for the sake of immediate results. This is the same mistake this organization has made continuously by sacrificing the long term results for the short.

Unless management acquires a younger point guard that can grow with Bamba and Isaac’s strengthened ankles, there really isn’t an end goal positive to getting an established point guard to make the playoffs for this season. That is unless you are a believer that moral victories matter even though this roster should look completely different if the FO is doing their job correctly.

People seem to think that we need to leap from bottom feeder to championship contender in one huge step.

There's nothing wrong with incremental improvement. Making the playoffs is an important step to becoming a true contender.

[RickB-Orlando]

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

My feelings on what the Magic *should* do and what the Magic *will* do are pretty dramatically different. What should they do? Get as high of a draft pick as they can. Pretty obvious. There are really just two ways to land star players if you're not a destination city.

1. Draft them.
2. Trade for them after drafting intriguing young guys.

We are 100% on the same page with what the Magic should do. In fact, unless you are a foreign tourist, a perpetual season ticket holder, ignorant of the nba, or an 8 year old; most everyone would agree with these pretty obvious assertions. So what is the disconnect here? Why do most of us believe what they should do to rebuild while also believing they absolutely won’t by continuing this vicious cycle? Interesting.

Because the draft is a crapshoot. There is virtually no guarantee - barring a LeBron-like entry - that you are drafting a player that will flourish in the NBA and make your team better.

Gathering assets and then trading for that unhappy star gets you a known quantity. I would much rather do the latter than continue tanking in the hope that a savior arises.

[Knightro]

I think Weltman and Hammond are gambling on a couple things...

1. They'll be able to draft well regardless of where their draft picks end up.
2. They'll be able to, when the time comes, leverage their financial flexibility to acquire better talent either through FA or through trades.

I think Weltman coming from Toronto thinks he can build a team in a similar way they did up north.

Look at their rotation from a year ago when they won 59 games. Not a single high lotto pick in the mix except Jonas. The rest were acquired via good scouting and good trades. Toronto has also done as good a job as anyone of developing players as well.

Anunoby - 23rd overall pick
DeRozan - 9th overall pick
Ibaka - acquired via trade for former 8th overall pick (Ross) and 25th overall pick
Lowry - acquired via trade for 12th overall pick
Miles - signed as a free agent for 3 years, 25M
Poeltl - 9th overall pick
Powell - 46th overall pick
Siakam - 27th overall pick
Valanciunas - 5th overall pick
Wright - 20th overall pick

I expect the Magic to at least attempt to do something similar. Whether they'll succeed or not remains to be seen. Most people are skeptical. We'll have a much better idea of how well/poorly this plan is going based on what they do this summer with financial flexibility.

[drsd]

Next game thread?

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Have we even given thought that TRoss might get an extension and what that could look like?? Yeah we could say the easy thing is for him to keep playing like this and ship him out but TRoss could very well be 6th man of the year type player once/if we get our roster figured the f out.

[basketballRob]

True, but what is the end goal here ? Is it to get by just enough, with a win-now coach, to get blown out by a top tier team with more talent?

Vuc, who like it or not shoulders a lot of the offense, is not going to be on this team next year - maybe even by the trade deadline. With that in mind, doesn’t it make more sense to continue to build, rather than squeeze out a few more wins for the sake of immediate results. This is the same mistake this organization has made continuously by sacrificing the long term results for the short.

Unless management acquires a point guard that can grow with Bamba and Isaacs strengthened ankles, there really isn’t an end goal positive to getting a point guard to make the playoffs for this season.

I wasn't suggesting it was the right idea either. The Magic would be best suited to get as high of a lotto pick as they possibly can, but that isn't what they're going to do.

Steve Clifford isn't going to tank. He's just not. It isn't in his DNA as a coach. Knowing that Clifford is here and is going to be afforded a LOT of time to get this thing right, it's time to start adding talent.

If the Magic can acquire a player or players right now in trades that are the same caliber of players that they would chase in free agency this summer, they should go ahead and do it if the cost isn't prohibitive.

But beyond all of that, if the Magic do look to acquire a PG THIS year, it would come at the expense of Vucevic or Ross or both which would not dramatically improve the team this season anyway.

What I was saying was more of a rhetorical thing.

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the long term future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

The Shelving Mack move was to save money this year. I was in favor of letting him go but I thought they were going to use the money to sign someone else.

[yoyojw17]

I wasn't suggesting it was the right idea either. The Magic would be best suited to get as high of a lotto pick as they possibly can, but that isn't what they're going to do.

Steve Clifford isn't going to tank. He's just not. It isn't in his DNA as a coach. Knowing that Clifford is here and is going to be afforded a LOT of time to get this thing right, it's time to start adding talent.

If the Magic can acquire a player or players right now in trades that are the same caliber of players that they would chase in free agency this summer, they should go ahead and do it if the cost isn't prohibitive.

But beyond all of that, if the Magic do look to acquire a PG THIS year, it would come at the expense of Vucevic or Ross or both which would not dramatically improve the team this season anyway.

What I was saying was more of a rhetorical thing.

Gotcha. Yeah I’m just hoping that the biggest takeaway from the moves this season/ offseason are centered around the long term future, regardless of what Clifford resembles as a coach. Of course he won’t tank, but management has to realize when the fold and when to push the chips in by assessing the risk appropriately. If not, this organization will perpetually be a first round exit team.

Some fans will want immediate results to “feel good” about this team even if it means sacrificing draft position or making better moves down the line.

The Shelving Mack move was to save money this year. I was in favor of letting him go but I thought they were going to use the money to sign someone else.

Well... you can save money.... but that doesn't mean you have to use it immediately. or you saved it and didn't find something worth spending it on and decided to stand pat instead of making a rash decision like we have in the past. there is so much we just don't and will never know.

[rcklsscognition]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/magics-mindful-aaron-gordon-is-trying-to-stay-out-of-mental-prison/

CBS: What are you doing better this season than ever before?

AG: I'm just trying to relax. I've been so, almost manic and anxiety-filled growing up and playing the sport. It's hard to play that way. It's stressful to play that way, and it's not a fun [way], it's not a pure way to play basketball. Basketball is supposed to be played relaxed, to enjoy and to have fun and to absorb. When you're manic and you're anxious, you miss some things.

We're lucky this guy doesn't have the yips yet.

[Def Swami]

I think Weltman and Hammond are gambling on a couple things...

1. They'll be able to draft well regardless of where their draft picks end up.
2. They'll be able to, when the time comes, leverage their financial flexibility to acquire better talent either through FA or through trades.

I think Weltman coming from Toronto thinks he can build a team in a similar way they did up north.

Look at their rotation from a year ago when they won 59 games. Not a single high lotto pick in the mix except Jonas. The rest were acquired via good scouting and good trades. Toronto has also done as good a job as anyone of developing players as well.

Anunoby - 23rd overall pick
DeRozan - 9th overall pick
Ibaka - acquired via trade for former 8th overall pick (Ross) and 25th overall pick
Lowry - acquired via trade for 12th overall pick
Miles - signed as a free agent for 3 years, 25M
Poeltl - 9th overall pick
Powell - 46th overall pick
Siakam - 27th overall pick
Valanciunas - 5th overall pick
Wright - 20th overall pick

I expect the Magic to at least attempt to do something similar. Whether they'll succeed or not remains to be seen. Most people are skeptical. We'll have a much better idea of how well/poorly this plan is going based on what they do this summer with financial flexibility.

I don't have a huge issue with the plan, but like you said, the front office has to capitalize on the draft. Utah were able to do something similar, but it works when you find Mitchell at pick 13 and Gobert at pick 27.

[Optimus_Steel]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/magics-mindful-aaron-gordon-is-trying-to-stay-out-of-mental-prison/

CBS: What are you doing better this season than ever before?

AG: I'm just trying to relax. I've been so, almost manic and anxiety-filled growing up and playing the sport. It's hard to play that way. It's stressful to play that way, and it's not a fun [way], it's not a pure way to play basketball. Basketball is supposed to be played relaxed, to enjoy and to have fun and to absorb. When you're manic and you're anxious, you miss some things.

We're lucky this guy doesn't have the yips yet.

We easily underestimate how much anxiety affects athletes (and people in general).

[Just Plain Mark]

My feelings on what the Magic *should* do and what the Magic *will* do are pretty dramatically different. What should they do? Get as high of a draft pick as they can. Pretty obvious. There are really just two ways to land star players if you're not a destination city.

1. Draft them.
2. Trade for them after drafting intriguing young guys.

We are 100% on the same page with what the Magic should do. In fact, unless you are a foreign tourist, a perpetual season ticket holder, ignorant of the nba, or an 8 year old; most everyone would agree with these pretty obvious assertions. So what is the disconnect here? Why do most of us believe what they should do to rebuild while also believing they absolutely won’t by continuing this vicious cycle? Interesting.

Because the draft is a crapshoot. There is virtually no guarantee - barring a LeBron-like entry - that you are drafting a player that will flourish in the NBA and make your team better.

Gathering assets and then trading for that unhappy star gets you a known quantity. I would much rather do the latter than continue tanking in the hope that a savior arises.

How do you expect the Magic to gather assets to trade for the unhappy star? If your answer is "the draft" then you still have to succesfully deal with the 'crapshoot' just like you do when a team tanks. If you're answer is FA, I'm struggling to think of any precedents where a team has obtained a disgruntled star through FA assets.

The Jimmy Butler trade to Philly involved a lottery pick (Saric) and an undrafted FA (Covington). The Butler trade to MN involved three lottery picks from MN, and two of those were in the form of already drafted players (Lavine and Dunn). The Kawhi Leonard trade involved DeRozan (drafted at 9). My point is, the draft seems key whether you 'tank' or not.

[Knightro]

The Jimmy Butler trade to Philly involved a lottery pick (Saric) and an undrafted FA (Covington). The Butler trade to MN involved three lottery picks from MN, and two of those were in the form of already drafted players (Lavine and Dunn). The Kawhi Leonard trade involved DeRozan (drafted at 9). My point is, the draft seems key whether you 'tank' or not.

The Magic have 5 former lotto picks on their roster, 3 of them drafted by them.

They're going to add another one this summer. They'll have pieces to move if they need to move them.