The Official Jalen Suggs Thread

[Bensational]

Well this has been a meaty page of discussion to catch up on! I like it!

Here’s a factor I’ll throw into the fire that might influence extension numbers: “family spirit”

I think Weltman and Co have been good at finding and cultivating guys who buy into the team and are prepared to take team friendly deals. Paolo and Franz are no questions MAX contract guys, but Suggs is the first non-max core guy to extend (unless you count Cole on that group) so he will set the tone for the players who follow. I think Weltman will be able to convince Suggs to take a fair deal with the provision that it will allow them to retain the rest of the team if they take comparable future deals. So then Suggs/other players will be weighing up personal fortune vs work environment and teammates and I think our guys will factor the team in more than other franchises.

[Knightro]

I am a big Suggs fan, but I will be very surprised if his extension comes in anywhere close to what AaronB is suggesting.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but 4/140 seems like a lot more than he'll actually get.

[Bensational]

I am a big Suggs fan, but I will be very surprised if his extension comes in anywhere close to what AaronB is suggesting.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but 4/140 seems like a lot more than he'll actually get.

I genuinely feel out of touch with cap numbers these days. I’d have said $25M AAV would be a high level deal for Suggs but I'm probably not up to date with cap inflation.

As an experiment, if you took every team and ordered them by contract value, I wonder what the average salaries are for players 3-6 are? What’s the range on a #3 option vs a #4 starter or a 6th man? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a breakdown like that.

[Skybox]

Well this has been a meaty page of discussion to catch up on! I like it!

Here’s a factor I’ll throw into the fire that might influence extension numbers: “family spirit”

I think Weltman and Co have been good at finding and cultivating guys who buy into the team and are prepared to take team friendly deals. Paolo and Franz are no questions MAX contract guys, but Suggs is the first non-max core guy to extend (unless you count Cole on that group) so he will set the tone for the players who follow. I think Weltman will be able to convince Suggs to take a fair deal with the provision that it will allow them to retain the rest of the team if they take comparable future deals. So then Suggs/other players will be weighing up personal fortune vs work environment and teammates and I think our guys will factor the team in more than other franchises.

Nice sentiment but we’ll see…agents play a big part and they don’t want to hear that noise. Suggs has a lot of heart…he could be the guy that accepts that rationale, but the danger is whether that approach can backfire when the FO has tough decisions about jettisoning dead weight that is also “family”…we have some of that in the very near future to consider.

He’s third best, but it’s a biiiig gap from 2-3 in ORL’s case…playoffs will show us a lot, imo, and I think he’s mentally built for big moments…it could be a challenging negotiation.

[Bensational]

Well this has been a meaty page of discussion to catch up on! I like it!

Here’s a factor I’ll throw into the fire that might influence extension numbers: “family spirit”

I think Weltman and Co have been good at finding and cultivating guys who buy into the team and are prepared to take team friendly deals. Paolo and Franz are no questions MAX contract guys, but Suggs is the first non-max core guy to extend (unless you count Cole on that group) so he will set the tone for the players who follow. I think Weltman will be able to convince Suggs to take a fair deal with the provision that it will allow them to retain the rest of the team if they take comparable future deals. So then Suggs/other players will be weighing up personal fortune vs work environment and teammates and I think our guys will factor the team in more than other franchises.

Nice sentiment but we’ll see…agents play a big part and they don’t want to hear that noise. Suggs has a lot of heart…he could be the guy that accepts that rationale, but the danger is whether that approach can backfire when the FO has tough decisions about jettisoning dead weight that is also “family”…we have some of that in the very near future to consider.

He’s third best, but it’s a biiiig gap from 2-3 in ORL’s case…playoffs will show us a lot, imo, and I think he’s mentally built for big moments…it could be a challenging negotiation.

I dunno, it’s hard to argue against the success they’ve built by following their approach and building a team that can grow together and feel like a family. As much as people have been concerned about dead weight - the team has managed to rise to 4th in the East and top of its division.

I very much feel the sentiment of your 2nd paragraph though. As far as consistency, big gap between 2-3. But when the playoffs come round and we need big moments that gap might close a bit.

[AaronB]

Below are the extensions from last year. Now add 5% to them.

Franz will come in about Bane level and Suggs about Vassell level.

What does that mean? Franz next contract AAS (average annual salary) will start with a 4 and Suggs will start with a 3 most likely.

Anything less and they should fire their agents.

Make no mistake, Paolo's will start with a 5, close to a 6.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 1 pick in 2020)
» 5 years, $260 million

LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (No. 3 pick in 2020)
» 5 years, $260 million

Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers (No. 12 pick in 2020)
» 5 years, $260 million

Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 30 pick in 2020)
» 5 years, $207 million

Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs (No. 11 pick in 2020)
» 5 years, $146 million

Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 28 pick in 2020)
» 5 years, $136 million

Thank you for the numbers...max slots are based on 25% of the cap. When does the new cap kick in? Is that where the 5% comes in or is that just a rough estimate or just your arbitrary increase?

It was set at $141m for next season. Spotrac has a figure of $155m for 25-26...but I think that's just a projection...Spotrac's summaries of the contracts you listed are different than your numbers....

No negotiation whatsoever on Paolo...MAX is 25% (assuming he doesn't go ham and get 2 straight All-NBA's) = starts at 38.8 (based on next year's cap...will go UP by the time he's extension-eligible....could easily start at 45m. Edwards' extension is 5/204m, starting at $35,250,000 and going up to $46,530,000 in the 5th year...not sure where you got 260m.

Franz doesn't get a max in my opinion...let's say he ONLY gets 20%. I agree that Bane is a fair value comparison. Bane's deal is 5/197m, starting at 34m.

Suggs may be in Vassell's value neighborhood, but Vassell is a very good defender, coming off of a 18.5 ppg season. His extension is 5/135m, starting at $29m. His offense is superior to Suggs and he was shooting 39% from 3 coming into his extension-eligible summer.
Vassell would be a much better third option offensively than Suggs, IMO. His defense isn't Suggs-like, but it's good enough and his shooting will complement Wemby just like our best guard's should complement Paolo & Franz. IMO, if Suggs is angling for $29m +, he may be heading into RFA (or even a SnT ). If our 3rd best guy (he is- but 3rd by a big gap) is making $29m, and not really playin a big offensive role, we better start checking the scrapheaps for the rest of the roster. AB's emergence might actually lead to Suggs becoming expendable if money gets tight. McDaniels is probably a good value comparison to Suggs, IMO, but got WAY overpaid and will hamstring MIN's summer plans for years - unless the cap takes a leap (or his offense does)...McDaniels' deal might be the straw that leads to a KAT trade if MIN doesn't thrill in the playoffs. They will almost certainly lose Kyle Anderson, unless he agrees to a big pay cut (he might).

Whatever the cap number is...if Paolo, Franz, and Suggs are glomming 60% of it...that's going to be a tough road to adding good players. I think, ultimately, Suggs extends quickly for $18m-$20m, assuming he doesn't absolutely light it up in the playoffs. If Suggs is an 18ppg scorer with his current level of defense and availability- I'm in. But I still see a need for an equal value, but more offensively-minded guard to play next to him. I love everything about Suggs, but he's right in that "not sweet" spot where you want to reward his spirit and intangibles, but you have to recognize how far behind the Big 2 he is and the likely ceiling that puts on the team's progress.

Also, it's easy for fans to talk about how easy it is for ownership to go over the cap to re-sign their players, but where does ORL get that money? There's a real limit to how many boxes you can sell to ORL corps and how many $750 lower bowl seats ORL residents will buy and I love beer, but not at $15 a pop...this is most definitely a small-market organization and I wouldn't be surprised if there will be strict mandates about avoiding the tax aprons above all else. I'd love to be wrong but ScAmway ain't that big and there's a whole generation of heirs that don't necessarily spend a lot of time in ORL.

There are huge salaries out there for mediocre players like Hield, for example. Hopefully, I'm missing something big in my perspective...but often, overpays are done in times where it doesn't really affect the next era (Jeff Green, FVV, Bruce Brown), not so much in a building a team to last situation, like ours. Look at GSW, who drafted very well and just kept paying to retain and add to that core, while collecting rings-now they are SOOO far over the cap that rules are being changed to prevent another...I don't think the DeVos family has that Silicon Valley money or attachment to the team.

Sportrac is pretty reliable, but I don;t think that they include any escalators.

Here is the nba.com article that I lifted the numbers from directly:

https://www.nba.com/news/players-who-signed-rookie-extensions-before-2023-24-deadline

[The-Stallion70]

I am a big Suggs fan, but I will be very surprised if his extension comes in anywhere close to what AaronB is suggesting.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but 4/140 seems like a lot more than he'll actually get.

I genuinely feel out of touch with cap numbers these days. I’d have said $25M AAV would be a high level deal for Suggs but I'm probably not up to date with cap inflation.

As an experiment, if you took every team and ordered them by contract value, I wonder what the average salaries are for players 3-6 are? What’s the range on a #3 option vs a #4 starter or a 6th man? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a breakdown like that.

The cap inflation numbers are one thing but they seem to impact max contracts primarily.

Cole's numbers looked very similar to Devante Graham's when he was in Charlotte but Cole signed for about the exact same AAV as Devante did even though it was a few years afterward.

Knightro also made the point about our front office succeeding in getting guys to sign deals below what they would probably get somewhere else like Wendell signing for 4/50.

An argument for Suggs to get close to 4/140 would be based primarily in advanced stats and you need more than that to get that kind of deal.

[ibraheim718]

That was probably the greatest goal post move of all time.

Dude went from Suggs is a scrub.. worst player in the league to I'm not breaking the bank for him.

[The-Stallion70]

That was probably the greatest goal post move of all time.

Dude went from Suggs is a scrub.. worst player in the league to I'm not breaking the bank for him.

Think you need to work on your reading comprehension buddy.

At no point did I ever say Suggs was a 'scrub' but I do not think he is in the tier of shooting guard that Realgm thinks he is.

He is closer to Austin Reaves in total value, who signed for 4/56.

[ibraheim718]

That was probably the greatest goal post move of all time.

Dude went from Suggs is a scrub.. worst player in the league to I'm not breaking the bank for him.

Think you need to work on your reading comprehension buddy.

At no point did I ever say Suggs was a 'scrub' but I do not think he is in the tier of shooting guard that Realgm thinks he is.

He is closer to Austin Reaves in total value, who signed for 4/56.

It wasn't directed towards you.

[SOUL]

He is closer to Austin Reaves in total value, who signed for 4/56.

I don't think this is true at all - Reaves has reputation as a really bad defender and a good but not elite offensive player and people were saying it was a steal of a contract still.

[The-Stallion70]

He is closer to Austin Reaves in total value, who signed for 4/56.

I don't think this is true at all - Reaves has reputation as a really bad defender and a good but not elite offensive player and people were saying it was a steal of a contract still.

Ok, can you give what you think are realistic AAV's for both Reaves and Suggs then?

Reaves is worse defensively than Suggs but a much better offensive player. I think they are more comparable in total value than you think.

[SOUL]

Reaves is worse defensively than Suggs but a much better offensive player.

Reaves contract is currently 14 mil (but split differently between the years), which is the 132nd most and after the next year would probably be around 150. Cap is only going up.

Suggs is currently ranked around 80 on TheRinger's best player list this year, and Reaves at 76, which seems pretty fair, and you can argue even higher if you think he's better than Reaves, Caruso, Kuzma, Brooks tier of players. He's also the youngest by far.

So you're not going to get Suggs' production for his age, while paying him like he's 70 slots worse, while the cap goes up for that price unless he REALLY wants to help the team out.

Guys like Kennard, KCP, Strus, Huerter, Harris are making around 14 mil from deals that were a year or two ago, and I'd rather have Suggs than all of them.

You can basically only count on one hand the amount of players that can function as a All-DPOY team POA defender, be able to run the PG spot at a passable level, who also shoots near 40% on threes on maybe one hand.

I don't think he'll get an "albatross" contract, but his value is way bigger than people think - assuming he can keep up this current standard of shooting with his defense.

[The-Stallion70]

Reaves is worse defensively than Suggs but a much better offensive player.

Reaves contract is currently 14 mil (but split differently between the years), which is the 132nd most and after the next year would probably be around 150. Cap is only going up.

Suggs is currently ranked around 80 on TheRinger's best player list this year, and Reaves at 76, which seems pretty fair, and you can argue even higher if you think he's better than Reaves, Caruso, Kuzma, Brooks tier of players. He's also the youngest by far.

So you're not going to get Suggs' production for his age, while paying him like he's 70 slots worse, while the cap goes up for that price unless he REALLY wants to help the team out.

Guys like Kennard, KCP, Strus, Huerter, Harris are making around 14 mil from deals that were a year or two ago, and I'd rather have Suggs than all of them.

You can basically only count on one hand the amount of players that can function as a All-DPOY team POA defender, be able to run the PG spot at a passable level, who also shoots near 40% on threes on maybe one hand.

I don't think he'll get an "albatross" contract, but his value is way bigger than people think - assuming he can keep up this current standard of shooting with his defense.

I'm not able to finish this thought completely but I'll give it go.

Each of the guys in the second group you mentioned, KCP (older, proven track record of sustained production), Huerter, Strus and Kennard had essentially performed at the same level with the same volume of games played before signing their extensions.

Reaves had only played two seasons before signing his extension because his rookie deal was structured differently due to being a secobd round pick.

It is important to point out that Suggs this season has had essentially an outlier year compared to how he has performed the rest of his career.

He is shooting 38.9% from three this year and 21% from 3 as a rookie. He shot 32.7% last season.

Each of the other guys you mentioned did not pick it up in contract years just to get paid. Andrew Nicholson is the most stark example of this happening in relatively recent Magic history but players do do this and then fall off.

Given Suggs' reckless style of play and total number of games he's missed in his career due to injury, let's just say I'm concerned about his ability to stay healthy throughout his next deal and considering how much we will have committed to Franz and Paolo over the next five years, we need to be very judicious with how we spend the rest of the cap.

[SOUL]

He is shooting 38.9% from three this year and 21% from 3 as a rookie. He shot 32.7% last season.

Each of the other guys you mentioned did not pick it up in contract years just to get paid. Andrew Nicholson is the most stark example of this happening in relatively recent Magic history but players do do this and then fall off.

Given Suggs' reckless style of play and total number of games he's missed in his career due to injury, let's just say I'm concerned about his ability to stay healthy throughout his next deal and considering how much we will have committed to Franz and Paolo over the next five years, we need to be very judicious with how we spend the rest of the cap.

I agree about the injury risk, but most first contracts are based on potential and not being paid for consistency. It's also hard to judge what is an "outlier" (too early to use, IMO) and what isn't, considering most 19-20 year old rookies take a few years, and thus this could be a string for 37-42% three point years moving forward, or he can dip to being a bad shooter again, or having a Franz-like year or something.. but his form seems great and I don't see why it would slip to being terrible. The outlier years may be his first two, as it's turned out for KCP and many others.

Strus was 0/33/41 his first three years, Reaves 31/39, KCP 32/34/30/35 his first 4 years. Guys like Huerter/Kennard find themselves getting less and less minutes because they're streak shooters who don't do that much else on the court.

(I think Suggs is up to 39.9% after tonight, so 40% shooter btw).

My point more so is that your first contract, you're not really banking on some 21-22 year old to have sustained years of production at a similar level because these are developing players. What you DO want to see is this sort of efficiency jump every year, even though obviously that's not going to happen every year.

You're also paying for scarcity and positional demand. EVERY team in the league needs a Suggs or Caruso type that can defend at elite POA levels, pass, shoot, and play hard. There's just a wide scope of what Suggs can be in the end - which at the top level could be more Jrue-like, mid-level a better shooting Marcus Smart, and he's already at at Caruso level while being 8 years younger.

If that is a player the Magic feel they cant pay or fans feel they're overvaluing, then I challenge them to picture a world where Suggs or Isaac doesn't exist for this team and how everything suddenly falls flat on the only elite area of our team so far.

[p0peye]

My mental model for how to distribute out salary cap:

1) 50% of the cap goes to Paolo and Franz
2) 30% of the cap goes to players 3, 4 and 5 - rest of the starters
3) 10% of the cap goes to 6th man
4) 10% of the cap goes to players 7 and 8 - playoff rotation guys.
5) veteran minimum and rookie scale contracts that push us over the salary cap limit

We already are paying Cole the 6th man money and Paolo and Franz are on the way as projected. Suggs belongs to that 2n group (starters) and I am not convinced we should give him too large of a chunk of that money as that limits how good our team will be. It can be distributed in different ways, I prefer 15% for that 3rd scoring option and rest 15% are shared amongst two defensive players in starting lineup. Obviously paying Suggs will mean that my model will not be used.

Suggs may very well receive a bigger offer from a team structuring their cap differently, giving him a different role or a team not caring about their salary cap structure at all as they have no guys in group 1 (think of Magic before 2021 or any tanking team today). Such teams need to burn 50% of the cap they are not using on group 1 players.

But, let's not confuse that carefree financial attitude of past with present state. We are at the point where cap management is of high importance as we build team for the future. As big dogs start getting theirs, many of the bench players (as pepe correctly mentioned) will not be retained from financial perspective, so choices will have to be made.

[Bensational]

It’s a fair point that Suggs only really has this season as proof of his capabilities and maybe that caps what WeHam are prepared to offer and what Suggs wants. We probably don’t see an extension for him this summer then, so he can gamble on himself to play into a better contract? He’d still be RFA next offseason.

[SOUL]

It'd be a bigger mistake not to lock him up now, imo. What rookie guards are putting up consistency over their first 3 seasons?

Even from his draft, you'd take him over Green, Giddey, Davion, Bouknight, Moody, Cam Thomas, etc. Nobody is really establishing themselves that early.

Even guys in the next draft like Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin, Daniels, are going to have question marks going into year three.

I don't think he'd ask for a crazy amount, but I think it would be stupid not to retain him or get him priced out because he Jalen Brunson'd himself out of range.

[Skybox]

Of course we’d prefer to lock him up early and, based on my general impression of him- I think he would too. I think it’s quick and reasonable- like Cole’s was, but a bit more. However, depending on his agency’s approach…there’s always a chance it goes sideways. No way in the world, imo, he gets an extension in excess of $25 per. If that’s what they demand, I expect FO to pump the brakes, say “we love you but let’s watch for another season and meet next summer”. Extensions have become the early norm, but RFA is still a very strong position for the team. If he gets to 18 ppg and some measurable assists, he’ll deserve and get 25, right now, he’s 18-20, imo.

I don’t think you can call Suggs’ season an outlier because he improved every year - it’s the ceiling that’s very debatable. He’s very good right now but you can’t simply assume his steep upward trajectory goes on for years to come - it’s unlikely.

[Knightro]

I do think Suggs will get 20M AAV or more, but I think this idea he’ll get 30-35M AAV, I dunno that just seems very unlikely to me.

Like I said before, he doesn’t have *that* much leverage considering the Magic can opt to not give him an extension and then he can play out his 5th year at just $12M and then go into RFA which is typically a dead zone for players.