Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[fendilim]

I wouldnt totally put the blame on Vuc, tbh.

I think Vuc has been the collateral of the lack of success by default.

Looking at what we were building with since Year 1, we pretty much lost patience on guys, who had shown potential of having what we really need - scoring ability. Just so happens that Vuc has been producing numbers since year 1 that made it hard for management to move him, and instead dealt our young promising scorers for quick fixes which did not really end up the way they wanted.

To me, the lack of success isnt really on Vuc, but it lies within management who didnt have the patience.

its always nice to have a scapegoat however.

[OrlandO]

Read on Twitter

Most teams with money don't have a need for a high usage C. They already have perimeter players and/or higher level all-stars to play through. It would be a waste of money for a team like the Kings to pay him $25-30 million to play a role that can be filled by a cheap low usage C.

[pepe1991]

Then so be it. If the Magic are bad because they can’t be propped up on the crutch that is Vucevic, then they deserve to land in the lottery. That’s the initial point of a lottery in the first place - to give lacking teams the chance at landing starter to elite talent.

The point is that you have to give AG, Isaac, Fultz, Bamba, etc. (all top 10 picks) the chance to prove themselves in a context without production from Vuc - a player that has already been on this roster for almost a decade. Otherwise you are asking for more of the same with extremely minimal varying results and opportunity to improve a clearly lacking roster. Which has ultimately been the case for a variety of reasons.

You don’t believe in the abilities of the youth on this roster and you champion Vucevic because he takes 17-19 shots a game in an archaic, slow, half court offense that fails to close out games a majority of the time.

The point is that you have to give AG, Isaac, Fultz, Bamba, etc. (all top 10 picks) the chance to prove themselves in a context without production from Vuc

Why?
Did any of them showed any reasons to belive they can?
Isaac is nothing else but never guarded spot up shooter at wing at this moment. And pretty mediocre at that.
Bamba is year away from being even that.
Gordon , after 5 years finally become average scoring starter, on league's average efficiency, and now is one of 76 nba players that are averaging over 14 ppg. How impressive is that ? Well, standing at 56th position in PPG, there are 7 players ahead of him who put up 16ppg or more while comming off bench. 17 of them did it while playing less MPG than Gordon , 10 of them did it while shooting less shots per game.

I won't even talk about Fultz.

Their limitations don't come from fact that they are being held down by somebody, but from fact that they are underdeveloped and simply poor offensive players in this moment. Philly giving up MCW and Jah Okafor ulimited usage during rookie year didn't turn them into great players, counting stats just masked what they are as players, but even that got exposed later. Magic youth , no matter with or without Vučević simply has to be better at playing basketball first, than they can, if they are good enough, take over games, more shots...

It’s a difference of opinion in how we view the youth in a context of a different offensive scheme. Vucevic is a good player. However, I don't believe that the rest of the roster can thrive in a slower half court set offensively centered around Vuc. The development of Bamba, Isaac, and to some extent AG would benefit in a different system IMO. That doesn’t happen with resigning Vuc to any amount of years or money.

They are going to have to make that call. I don’t doubt that they’ll resign Vuc because of the limited options available, I just don’t believe the other guys on the roster couldn’t muster being competitive under Clifford. It’s perfectly fine if you believe differently. I just don’t think being so reliant on Vuc is a positive moving forward.

Magic don't only play slow because of Vučević but because Clifford avoids turnovers by slowing pace.
Also who would really benefit from faster pace ? Gordon only?
Bamba couldn't even keep up with 18 mpg on slower pace.
Isaac isn't some elite athlete, and as guy with asthma , running like fool won't help him.

Without elite guards and shooters it's really pointless to boost pace, especially on team with as pretty poor shooting, passing.

My problem with fans who want Vuc go is how they pretty much ignore fact that even without Vučević Magic won't have much cap space and Ross will probably walk as well. And when two dominos fall, who da hell will come to play on team that is crippled ,compared to last year ?

Look at Minny, they lost Butler, did they improve? Did KAT and Wiggins become some new superstars ? Not really. They kept being same players they were with him. Just went from 47 to 36 wins.

[nicnac215]

Why?
Did any of them showed any reasons to belive they can?
Isaac is nothing else but never guarded spot up shooter at wing at this moment. And pretty mediocre at that.
Bamba is year away from being even that.
Gordon , after 5 years finally become average scoring starter, on league's average efficiency, and now is one of 76 nba players that are averaging over 14 ppg. How impressive is that ? Well, standing at 56th position in PPG, there are 7 players ahead of him who put up 16ppg or more while comming off bench. 17 of them did it while playing less MPG than Gordon , 10 of them did it while shooting less shots per game.

I won't even talk about Fultz.

Their limitations don't come from fact that they are being held down by somebody, but from fact that they are underdeveloped and simply poor offensive players in this moment. Philly giving up MCW and Jah Okafor ulimited usage during rookie year didn't turn them into great players, counting stats just masked what they are as players, but even that got exposed later. Magic youth , no matter with or without Vučević simply has to be better at playing basketball first, than they can, if they are good enough, take over games, more shots...

It’s a difference of opinion in how we view the youth in a context of a different offensive scheme. Vucevic is a good player. However, I don't believe that the rest of the roster can thrive in a slower half court set offensively centered around Vuc. The development of Bamba, Isaac, and to some extent AG would benefit in a different system IMO. That doesn’t happen with resigning Vuc to any amount of years or money.

They are going to have to make that call. I don’t doubt that they’ll resign Vuc because of the limited options available, I just don’t believe the other guys on the roster couldn’t muster being competitive under Clifford. It’s perfectly fine if you believe differently. I just don’t think being so reliant on Vuc is a positive moving forward.

Magic don't only play slow because of Vučević but because Clifford avoids turnovers by slowing pace.
Also who would really benefit from faster pace ? Gordon only?
Bamba couldn't even keep up with 18 mpg on slower pace.
Isaac isn't some elite athlete, and as guy with asthma , running like fool won't help him.

Without elite guards and shooters it's really pointless to boost pace, especially on team with as pretty poor shooting, passing.

My problem with fans who want Vuc go is how they pretty much ignore fact that even without Vučević Magic won't have much cap space and Ross will probably walk as well. And when two dominos fall, who da hell will come to play on team that is crippled ,compared to last year ?

Look at Minny, they lost Butler, did they improve? Did KAT and Wiggins become some new superstars ? Not really. They kept being same players they were with him. Just went from 47 to 36 wins.

I don’t want Nik gone but I do want Mozgov/Fournier gone

[ezzzp]

Actually, Vucevic has NOT been the primary option for 7 years....AND in at least 3 of those 7 years the Magic were tanking and one was ruined by injuries.

Spoiler:

• 2012-13:

Options 1 and 2 were A Aflallo (2307 min / 22.5 USG) and J Nelson (1977 min 22.5 USG). Then once Tobias Harris arrived, he leapfrogged everyone (997 min / 23.7 USG). Vucevic was at best 3d-4th option with a 19.7 USG rate that year.

• 2013-14:

Vucevic is the 3d-4th option (21.8 USG). Again, he's behind Oladipo 24.4 USG and Afflalo 23.3 USG, and sharing 3-4th guy role with Tobias Harris 22.2 USG.

• 2014-15:

This is the first season that Vucevic jumps into top 2 option. He shares the load with Oladipo (26.0/25.2 USG). But obviously Oladipo has ball in his hands and is main on-ball guy. Harris is 3d option. Vucevic puts up 19p/10r on .548 TS% and is in the All-Star conversation

• 2015-16:

Skiles makes Vucevic top option. Magic have 10 win improvement. On Jan 1st that unit was 19-12 with Skiles being named coach of the month for December. Then the wheels fell off after that. Vucevic puts up 18p/9r/3a but inefficiently as his long-two volume jumps (accounts for 30% of his offense) and that craters his TS%.

• 2016-17:

Vogel arrives and makes Aaron Gordon "his new Paul George." By mid season its a total disaster and Vogel shifts the offensive load to Vucevic with Fournier as 2nd option. Vucevic has his worst year 15p/8r/3a.

• 2017-18:

Vucevic is top option (25.9 USG) / Aaron Gordon as 2nd option (24.7 USG). Magic start off on a tear, but then injuries (to Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier overlap) and derail season. Vucevic is out from Decemer 23d through February 22nd. By the time he gets back season is lost and by March he's getting limited minutes (23 mpg) as chasing lottery odds becomes agenda.

• 2018-19:

Clifford becomes new coach and finally a coach utilizes him in a way that takes advantage of his full arsenal. Vucevic has best year, is an all-star and leads Magic into the playoffs were he and team get crushed by NBA champions.

So in this breakdown he basically becomes a primary option in 2014 with Oladipo and is the “lead option” in 4-5 of the 7 seasons he’s been here one of which he isn’t with Vogel. K... that doesn’t help your argument.

Yeah you think Vucevic won’t have a career year in
- A contract season
- Under a big-favorable Clifford system
- After Orlando drafts his position in the lottery
- With no other players to realistically take his touches away.

And No... Orlando wasn’t “tanking” they were bad because they lost their superstar player, identity, head coach, contending roster, and GM in the aftermath of the Dwight’s departure. You shouldn’t be able to use the word tanking anymore. You’ve bastardized that term to death.

Uh NO. It shows that he was the primary option in 3 seasons, 3.5 if you want to count half season after Aaron "Paul George" Gordon debacle...and in one of those three he was injured for 2 months and then played very limited minutes after returning.

That is a far cry from your totally incorrect statement: "And what has Vucevic brought us as the primary option for those 7 years?"

LOL that you would actually think that somehow helps your totally incorrect statement. It literally shows you year by year how wrong your statement is.

FYI, Vucevic had a career year at his peak prime age...you know, when most players in the NBA have their best production year. SMH.

Guess what else? he's now in his prime plateaux so that's more or less the production he should sustain through most of his next contract. But my guess is his 3pt shooting is going to keep improving as its a new skill that he's honing, so its likely his efficiency bumps up more + and in doing so opens up other aspects of his skill based/high bbIQ offensive attack.

...and stop embarrassing yourself with that ridiculous semantic "Magic weren't tanking" argument.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Lottery? Expect a Top 5 pick for sure (not accounting for ping pong balls).

BTW, if we let Vuc and TRoss go, why do you guys think that DLo will sign with Orlando instead of Indiana or Utah? He will want a competitive team.

I think we'll be more competitive without Vuc.

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Well don't leave me in suspense, how do you think we'll be more competitive without vuc? It's easy to say what you said and dip without explaining anything. How will it work, I'm curious?

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There is absolutely zero chance were more competitive without Vuc. None. Dude literally drug this sorry ass team through the mud into the POs.
If we lose both he and Ross with no plan to add talent, then we instantaneously become a basement dweller in rebuild mode again. To think otherwise is pure nonsense.

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[drsd]

There is absolutely zero chance were more competitive without Vuc. None. Dude literally drug this sorry ass team through the mud into the POs.
If we lose both he and Ross with no plan to add talent, then we instantaneously become a basement dweller in rebuild mode again. To think otherwise is pure nonsense.

Over the last 31 games of the season, the Magic played like a 3-or-4 seed. And that was with Fournier still not fully re-adapted to the SG slot.

If the Magic makes no roster changes at all, a 50 win season is an attainable goal (if healthy). Add to that that Fultz MUST be a roster upgrade over Grant and that the Magic will also upgrade Martin, to go alongside the probable developmental growth of Iwundu, Frazier, Isaac, and Bamba, 50 wins seems fairly likely to me next season IF Vučević and Ross both resign.

If Vučević does not resign, then for Orlando to make the playoffs, we would need Bamba to move up towards being a top-25 Center in the NBA AND Mozgov coming back to provide reasonable backup minutes. Both are unlikely.


Let say Orlando drafts Alexander-Walker-16 and Naz Reid-46, signs Kaminsky, opts-in Iwundu and resigns Vučević, Ross and Carter-Williams, I really really like this team:
Augustin/Fultz/Carter-Williams
Fournier/Iwundu/Alexander-Walker
Isaac/Ross/Frazier
Gordon/Kaminsky
Vučević/Mozgov/Reid

In particular it is a much, much deeper team than last year. And with Mozgov and Fournier off the books at the end of the season, a star-wing can be signed to a near max-level contract; thus growth and more-talent seems further moving further. Resigning Vučević and Ross is a sign this team will make a run at a Championship for the 2020/21 season. Not resigning either means the Magic will be a marginal playoff contender for the next three years. Personally, I prefer the former over the later.

Look at the Raptors: they sold (virtually) all chances of being Championship competitive for the next 5 years for a one-season effort to win one title. They did it, and it was worth it. When Leonard signs with the Clippers, Toronto will struggle to win 41 games. But it was worth it.

The Raptors will always have this moment:

[Ducklett]

There is absolutely zero chance were more competitive without Vuc. None. Dude literally drug this sorry ass team through the mud into the POs.
If we lose both he and Ross with no plan to add talent, then we instantaneously become a basement dweller in rebuild mode again. To think otherwise is pure nonsense.

Over the last 31 games of the season, the Magic played like a 3-or-4 seed. And that was with Fournier still not fully re-adapted to the SG slot.

If the Magic makes no roster changes at all, a 50 win season is an attainable goal (if healthy). Add to that that Fultz MUST be a roster upgrade over Grant and that the Magic will also upgrade Martin, to go alongside the probable developmental growth of Iwundu, Frazier, Isaac, and Bamba, 50 wins seems fairly likely to me next season IF Vučević and Ross both resign.

If Vučević does not resign, then for Orlando to make the playoffs, we would need Bamba to move up towards being a top-25 Center in the NBA AND Mozgov coming back to provide reasonable backup minutes. Both are unlikely.


Let say Orlando drafts Alexander-Walker-16 and Naz Reid-46, signs Kaminsky, opts-in Iwundu and resigns Vučević, Ross and Carter-Williams, I really really like this team:
Augustin/Fultz/Carter-Williams
Fournier/Iwundu/Alexander-Walker
Isaac/Ross/Frazier
Gordon/Kaminsky
Vučević/Mozgov/Reid

In particular it is a much, much deeper team than last year. And with Mozgov and Fournier off the books at the end of the season, a star-wing can be signed to a near max-level contract; thus growth and more-talent seems further moving further. Resigning Vučević and Ross is a sign this team will make a run at a Championship for the 2020/21 season. Not resigning either means the Magic will be a marginal playoff contender for the next three years. Personally, I prefer the former over the later.

Look at the Raptors: they sold (virtually) all chances of being Championship competitive for the next 5 years for a one-season effort to win one title. They did it, and it was worth it. When Leonard signs with the Clippers, Toronto will struggle to win 41 games. But it was worth it.

The Raptors will always have this moment:

If you re-sign both Vuc and Ross, we don't have cap space ever. Let us not pretend that we have any chance at signing anyone with Evan off the books.

Also, can we please stop making excuses for Evan. He is garbage now.

[Skybox]

If we can re-sign Vuc and Ross to great deals (that's the question) we should! We'd be in a much more powerful position to make deals, even in the near future, once our assets are cost-controlled. Vuc at 19 or 20 (just a tad above AG) and Ross around 10 or 12 for 3 years. Then, we can make deals , if they appear, to consolidate good players on favorable deals for a better player. If we let these guys go, we better have an intended use for the cap space (like DLo)...and I don't think these FA signings happen on the spot. I believe teams have a good idea what's actually likely in a lot of cases....If Vuc goes somewhere, it's for the money that WeHam wouldn't give him and I can live with that. I think his value to other NBA teams, fair or not, is not above 20m...and you can't simply say "But this guy got 25" or similar. It just doesn't work that way (in a good FO)...WeHam will not overpay or cripple our growth.

[drsd]

If you re-sign both Vuc and Ross, we don't have cap space ever. Let us not pretend that we have any chance at signing anyone with Evan off the books.

This is incorrect. Mozgov + Augustin will free up 24M in contract space next off-season. The Magic is committed to Gordon 18M + Fournier 17M + Fultz 12M + Isaac 7M + Bamba 6M + Frazier 1.6M = 61.6.
Let's say Vučević and Ross couple for 40M a year (they won't command more than that so I use that maxima number), There would leave about 10M in cap-space for 20/21. Then dumping Fournier's contract in a Hawks/Nets-type deal takes that up to 27M, which is the financial line I mentioned: near max money. Orlando will have significant capacity to make a run at a star-wing next off-season.

And if the Magic make no real moves next off-season, Fournier then comes off of the books. There is good flexibility financially from next off-season and on.

Also, can we please stop making excuses for Evan. He is garbage now.

If the narrative is that Fournier is actually a SF and should not be a starting SG, that is subjective. For me, he spent so much time on defense that he really lost his shot. I am sure he will spend all off-season rediscovering it. Last year was his only career year shooting less than 35% with the 3-ball, and if he gets back to his career average of 37%, he will be fine.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Bobby Marks projects Vucevic’s salary at $24M/yr! (on sportscenter)

Better not be coming from us.... Kings or Clippers??

[basketballRob]

Bobby Marks projects Vucevic’s salary at $24M/yr! (on sportscenter)

Better not be coming from us.... Kings or Clippers??

No way they get it from the Clippers. They got rid of their no defense guy Griffin.

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[Optimus_Steel]

Vuc and Ross are key this summer but WeHam have to work really hard at adding outside shooting throughout the roster and adding bench depth. Whether its through draft or free agency, or both that is a must. And make sure we have a legit 2nd and 3rd string PG, we saw what a difference it made when Grant was parked on the bench. Too often the starters would play well but we had no bench scoring options other than Ross and if he was off that night we would be in big trouble as its tough to overcome night in night out.

[tiderulz]

Of course people are scared to imagine a team without the only option they’ve known for 7 years of being a primary scoring option. Like you said, he’s a complimentary option. Is it his fault? No. It’s the fault of all the previous management’s not addressing glaring issues offensively. Too bad. Now we are sitting on the fence mortgaging possibly our future at $20m+ because he was given the greenest light imaginable and scarce help offensively. That doesn’t mean it’s absolutely necessary to retain him out of fear of being an obsolete team. That’s a weak reason to overpay someone at a position of lesser value.

Talent does mean better with chemistry, context, and opportunity. Again, we aren’t talking about a team with multiple allstars that have failed to deliver based on their talent. We are talking about the opposite. A team with possibly one allstar (given the circumstances) that has failed to deliver within the course of a 7 year period.

Actually, Vucevic has NOT been the primary option for 7 years....AND in at least 3 of those 7 years the Magic were tanking and one was ruined by injuries.

Vuc has not been the overall undisputed primary option for 7 years, but we rarely had an undisputed primary option. the combined coaches never really put forth a primary one. The ball was spread between Harris/Dipo/Vuc, Dipo/Vuc, Vuc/AG, etc. He was also "a" primary option, we never really had "the" primary option.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

3 year 75M is interesting for Vuc, think the bigger one is TRoss maybe taking a 1 year 14-15M deal which would have to come from a Playoff team maybe LA??

[VFX]

Of course people are scared to imagine a team without the only option they’ve known for 7 years of being a primary scoring option. Like you said, he’s a complimentary option. Is it his fault? No. It’s the fault of all the previous management’s not addressing glaring issues offensively. Too bad. Now we are sitting on the fence mortgaging possibly our future at $20m+ because he was given the greenest light imaginable and scarce help offensively. That doesn’t mean it’s absolutely necessary to retain him out of fear of being an obsolete team. That’s a weak reason to overpay someone at a position of lesser value.

Talent does mean better with chemistry, context, and opportunity. Again, we aren’t talking about a team with multiple allstars that have failed to deliver based on their talent. We are talking about the opposite. A team with possibly one allstar (given the circumstances) that has failed to deliver within the course of a 7 year period.

Actually, Vucevic has NOT been the primary option for 7 years....AND in at least 3 of those 7 years the Magic were tanking and one was ruined by injuries.

Vuc has not been the overall undisputed primary option for 7 years, but we rarely had an undisputed primary option. the combined coaches never really put forth a primary one. The ball was spread between Harris/Dipo/Vuc, Dipo/Vuc, Vuc/AG, etc. He was also "a" primary option, we never really had "the" primary option.

It’s just BS semantics arguments. The guy has been on the team forever as “a” primary option. All the various FO’s failed to deliver any deviation from Vuc needing to take between 14-17 fga per game since 2014.

[VFX]

I think we'll be more competitive without Vuc.

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Well don't leave me in suspense, how do you think we'll be more competitive without vuc? It's easy to say what you said and dip without explaining anything. How will it work, I'm curious?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

There is absolutely zero chance were more competitive without Vuc. None. Dude literally drug this sorry ass team through the mud into the POs.
If we lose both he and Ross with no plan to add talent, then we instantaneously become a basement dweller in rebuild mode again. To think otherwise is pure nonsense.

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And a Vucevic led offense has reached its peak last season after his disappearing act in the playoffs. A true magician for sure.

[OrlandoNed]

3 year 75M is interesting for Vuc, think the bigger one is TRoss maybe taking a 1 year 14-15M deal which would have to come from a Playoff team maybe LA??

The excerpt about Ross makes me feel confident about re-signing him, specifically the part about Orlando not gaining any cap relief if he leaves in free agency. We don't have any reason to not keep him. Only thing to worry about is if he chases a title or an above market contract.

[KillMonger]

Disappearing act.......... Vs the Champs........ Hmmmm

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[MartinsIzAfraud]

Actually, Vucevic has NOT been the primary option for 7 years....AND in at least 3 of those 7 years the Magic were tanking and one was ruined by injuries.

Vuc has not been the overall undisputed primary option for 7 years, but we rarely had an undisputed primary option. the combined coaches never really put forth a primary one. The ball was spread between Harris/Dipo/Vuc, Dipo/Vuc, Vuc/AG, etc. He was also "a" primary option, we never really had "the" primary option.

It’s just BS semantics arguments. The guy has been on the team forever as “a” primary option. All the various FO’s failed to deliver any deviation from Vuc needing to take between 14-17 fga per game since 2014.

failing to get a PG says hello again... Had we drafted or grabbed a young PG in FA to groom (that could actually shoot) then maybe just maybe we wouldn't still be rebuilding in year 7. Skiles flat out told Henny EP was not starting quality and Henny wouldn't listen and then Skiles quit because he wasn't going to go down this train-wreck.

Now here we are with a 32 year old DJ (love the dude) and a broken Markelle Fultz. I see people talking about bringing MCW or Briscoe back and its laughable because those dudes are bottom barrel guys yet we've been so starved for PG talent that they look attractive. Those guys should be 3rd level guards or even 10 day guys late in the season.

This FO has 0 reasons to not take a guard at 16 and or 46 IMO.