Xatticus wrote:pepe1991 wrote:I compared 3rd year to 3rd year because that's amount of experience those guys had.
And no, i don't count years of inability to play but times those guys spent with proffesional coaches, having meals prepared for them, having 10+ individual people caring about their career, monitoring their basketball trainings, having no other job, no school to attend , no classes to make but doing nothing but basketball activity for living.
For same reasons i belive that player missing rookie year should not be considered rookie next year, and to back it up, guys like Simmons and Griffin won ROY yet never made significant leap in second year, because their "significant" leap actually happend in year they did not play.
For same reasons "rookie" Embiid and Joel Embiid today are same players without any significant improvments.
Being 18 years old rookie and being 22 years old "rookie" is not the same and never will be.
As for Payton- Fultz thing, i just posted stat comparison, didn't say a word of opinion about it.
Stats across the board tell enough.
Payton much like many other players never "learned" how to shoot just like Gordon never become plus shooter. Just like Stanley Johnson never learned to do anything basketball -related and many, many many other players who arived in nba without polished shooting touch, reached their shooting ceiling really,really fast and platoed.
This year, with minimum 25 games played and at least 18 mpg of action per game, Payton is 3rd worst player by efficiency in whole league.
I remember saying during his rookie year that Knox is garbage prospect and Knicks should rush a trade, two years later who is top 5 worst shooters out there.
RJ Barrett is another guy who smart teams would not touch with ten foot pole. Ofc, ranked just right there as top 10 worst player by TS%.
Fultz shooting is odd situation due injury so it's hard to call him not starting level PG already and move away from him. That being said, he spent 1 year away from playing and was only focused on recovering from TOS and he flat out still can't shoot outside.
Maybe most interesting thing would be to know would he be good shooter if TOS never happend. There were some red flags about his ability to shoot back at college and before college. Maybe he would never be good shooter even if 100% healthy.
There are guys like Aldrige and Livingstone who had elite mid range game yet never could shoot 3s at NBA level.
Overall his career in eyes of a media will always be looked through an eyes of first overall pick that just happend to be traded for nba allstar Tatum. Since 75% of all top picks are allstars, that will always be standard that he will be held by. It's a same pick guys like Lebron, Hakeem, Davis,Shaq, David Robinson,Ewing, Duncan, Iverson... were selected by.
If i'm not mistaking, 40% of first overall picks are hall of fame level players.
Being first overall pick is a huge burden.
And yet the New York Knicks are a better offensive team with Payton on the floor than are the Orlando Magic. In fact, Payton's offrtg (109.2) is higher than anyone on Orlando's roster this year. TS% is not really the measure of a player's offensive value. It's just one component. You can have a low scoring efficiency, yet still make your team's offense better (e.g. Payton). Conversely, you can have a high TS% and make your team's offense worse.
There are some similarities and some differences between Payton and Fultz. Both are very good at using their dribbles to get into the paint and neither is quick to pick up their dribble in tight spaces. I'd argue that Payton is better at getting to the basket and he is better at running an offense via the pick-and-roll. Fultz is a better finisher around the rim, has a better mid-range game, and is better in transition. As a pure scorer, Fultz is better, but Payton is much better at running a halfcourt offense. Payton can consistently create quality shots for his teammates. Fultz doesn't seem to have that ability yet.
Fultz is very much instinctual. His vision is fairly limited. He will see his bigs and he will see cutters, but he isn't really a drive-and-kick guy at present. He will attack the paint, but if he gets closed down without any nearby targets, he will spin around his pivot and survey the perimeter before kicking it out. There is a big difference between that and actively reading where the help defense is coming from and making the pass as soon as the help defender commits.
I think Fultz could pretty easily average 20 points a night right now. His mid-range game is solid and he has the ability to manufacture those shots for himself routinely. I just don't think that Fultz firing up 15 mid-range jumpers a night is going to make our offense any better. His 3-point shot is a mess right now. It's a completely different shot. It looks fairly consistent, but it isn't working at all, so I don't think there is any hope that it will until it gets retooled. Fultz' has the tools to become a pretty good offensive player even without a functional 3-point shot though. It's just going to depend on how he develops as a facilitator. He needs to improve as a pick-and-roll ballhandler and he needs to improve his understanding at the offensive end. He is a very talented passer. He can thread the ball through tight windows, his passes are accurate, and he is very clever in his deliveries, but he has to improve at making the right passes at the right times based on how the defense reacts to his penetration. We just have to wait to see if that happens.
And yet the New York Knicks are a better offensive team with Payton on the floor than are the Orlando Magic. In fact, Payton's offrtg (109.2) is higher than anyone on Orlando's roster this year. TS% is not really the measure of a player's offensive value. It's just one component. You can have a low scoring efficiency, yet still make your team's offense better (e.g. Payton). Conversely, you can have a high TS% and make your team's offense worse.
How is that suprising? His replacments are two players who will struggle to play in Euroleague ,let alone NBA?
TS% actually counts your value every time you take a shot. So every time, during around 10 times a game he does shoot- his value is among the worst in whole league. 10 shots can easly be swing of 7-11 points and that 4 point gap between good and bad shooters , across whole roster, most of the time is difference between winning and losing teams.
There are some similarities and some differences between Payton and Fultz. Both are very good at using their dribbles to get into the paint and neither is quick to pick up their dribble in tight spaces. I'd argue that Payton is better at getting to the basket and he is better at running an offense via the pick-and-roll. Fultz is a better finisher around the rim, has a better mid-range game, and is better in transition. As a pure scorer, Fultz is better, but Payton is much better at running a halfcourt offense. Payton can consistently create quality shots for his teammates. Fultz doesn't seem to have that ability yet.
I did not compare their games ,rather just posted how similar stats across the board look.
It's not my problem that Payton to this date never played on a team that won 38 games mostly because good team will never take or start non-shooting PG who happends to be poor decision maker on defense as well.
Fultz is very much instinctual. His vision is fairly limited. He will see his bigs and he will see cutters, but he isn't really a drive-and-kick guy at present. He will attack the paint, but if he gets closed down without any nearby targets, he will spin around his pivot and survey the perimeter before kicking it out. There is a big difference between that and actively reading where the help defense is coming from and making the pass as soon as the help defender commits.
I think Fultz issuse is telegraphing passes. Teams know that he will run himself into a corner and dump bounce pass to a big. He does it almost every time. That's why against Heat ( not last but previous game) he had 5 turnovers. Simply predictable.
Also most of his assists comes from Evan and Ross off -screen catch&shoots. Now it's fine and it's actually good play, but that really doesn't make him elite playmaker. For same reasons i never viewed Augustine as elite passer despite him putting up those 6,7 apg on low turnover rate.
I think Fultz could pretty easily average 20 points a night right now. His mid-range game is solid and he has the ability to manufacture those shots for himself routinely. I just don't think that Fultz firing up 15 mid-range jumpers a night is going to make our offense any better.
There are at least 150-200 nba players that could if they can take enough shots. That's nont the point. Being 51% TS player on 11 ppg probably means he would be sub 50% TS player on 18 shots a game. Andrew Wiggins averages 22 ppg and if you ask me, he should be 8 shots a game player , played off bench. But i would actually prefer keeping him away from my rotations.
And for the end, i have zero desire to get into Payton- Fultz debate. I only posted their 3rd year peformance- counting stats numbers.
Only reason i made other post ( one you replyed on), is adressing age difference between them. Where i simply do not care about player's age as long it's inside 2 years difference, and i focus on player's experience in and around NBA . That's why i brought Griffin and Simmons. They should have not won ROY imo. It's unfair.
That being said, it's irritates me a bit whole Fultz " he is basically a rookie" thing. Because he is not. He spent last 3 years as a pro, is payed like a pro for 3 years and esencially is- three years pro athlete. He didn't play a lot, ok, lot of players don't. That still doesn't change fact that he had all the tools, adventages, coaches, gyms in the world to improve and work on his craft, where somebody comming off college, like PJ Washington , despite being same age, did not. As he had to focus on school, attending classes, taking care of grades, study... And ofc he was not followed around by pros telling him what to eat, what to work on... or earning any $$.
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon
