Alright, I am going to take off the blue-colored glasses now, the ones that I have been wearing the last couple weeks and say some bold things. Here is my 'This is the Real' Depth Chart below.
The rules: a) I am boldly predicting the rotations by Playoffs time. b) If there is a blank line, it is because there is a serious rotation hole here. c) If a Magic player is missing from the depth chart below, it is because I want them as cap space within 2 weeks. So assume that I traded them for as much cap/tpe space as possible. It would be awesome if it netted us some future picks, even just 2nd's. I would like to look at trade-for-other-players ideas too, but it's too many unknown variables/scenarios. And besides, this is how I secure the partial/full usage of the 14 mil MLE and 5 mil BAE. d) Finally, I am slotting the players by who they defend usually. This is just the best way as I see it personally. Offensive roles can also be tricky and positionless sometimes too. I don't know if Bane might end up helping us more as a combo point guard over Suggs while still getting his off-ball shooting actions. A little bit similarly with AB's role off the bench too, if he can be more of a backup point or still more of a backup guard/wing. We don't have super solid ideas of what offensive role Jase would have either.
Playoffs time Lineup: Jalen Suggs / Jase Richardson / _________ Desmond Bane / Anthony Black / _________ Franz Wagner / _________ / Tristan Da Silva Paolo Banchero / Jonathan Isaac / Tristan Da Silva / Noah Penda Wendell Carter Jr. / Mo Wagner / _________
The three 2-Way contracts to convert to standard contracts if needed for Playoffs: Trevelin Queen (scratched off by Knightro as Ineligible for 2-Way), _________, _________
Playoffs time Lineup; the Alternative Version for the Jase non-believers and talked about below: Jalen Suggs / _________ / Jase Richardson Desmond Bane / Anthony Black / Jase Richardson Franz Wagner / _________ / Tristan Da Silva Paolo Banchero / Jonathan Isaac / Tristan Da Silva / Noah Penda Wendell Carter Jr. / Mo Wagner / _________
Bold statements:
Spoiler:
- I want all three of Goga, Jett, and Caleb gone for as much cap/tpe space as possible.
- I am high on TDS. I have him in a heated battle for the 2nd lineup depending on what wing we can grab in FA. Look at this selective 19 game sample that starts in late December and was basically any game near or above 30 MPG and near or above 10 FGA since then. I picked these 19 specific games because TDS was 3 months adjusted to the NBA by now and the injuries were racking up so much that he started to have some heavy minutes. Basically, Mosely couldn't bury him anymore, and TDS was a starter or major rotation piece with a green light in these specific games.
15.4 PPG 5.1 RPG with 2.1 ORB / 3.0 DRB 2.3 APG to 1.3 TO 1.0 SPG 0.4 BPG 3.1 PF 33:28 MPG
Given all that, I was surprised he couldn't replicate it better with lower usage & minutes alongside more of the real starters. But he will get there and bring most of that stat line to the rotation. However, again, I think a MLE level signing, over say a BAE/Min signing, that targets this 2/3-ish area of the depth chart would be a player who can likely give us more in the rotation, making TDS a luxury 9th-11th man. I'm thinking of names like NAW and GTJ here.
- I am VERY high on Jase Richardson. I believe Jase will be in the backup 1 spot by the start of the Playoffs. I have run comps to so many similar small guards in the past few seasons, and there is always something that doesn't stack up to Jase. Too many teams have some short players, some even doing great. We have none. We took advantage.
Maybe the JRich 3PT sample was too small and he comes in at 35-37 3P% in his rookie year (this was the only negative I could possibly find, just wild). But that confident 3PT shooting will go up from there. In fact, let's just throw a couple more 3PT stats out there; 51.6% on his corner 3's. 45.7% on catch and shoot 3's in general.
Now he gets the defensive assignment on the least offensive threat between 1, 2, and possibly even some low-offense 3's because of his physicality. And he will even probably be a solid defender too, based on the tape (I've been getting surprised by the number of short Playoffs defenders not being shot over as well, with them having physicality and tight-to-the-body coverage as key traits).
Simply put, on top of all the elite shooting and solid defense, there is even a level of craftiness to his game on the tape that are shades of some star guards out there in the NBA. He has a slippery way of probing, and he does it with a lot of misdirections/hesitations, acceleration/deceleration, floaters and push shots, and finally even a level of physicality as he gets closer to the rim. He usually does them off of screens/picks and closeouts and not creation out of nothing, but given that he has had a very low TO rate, and PG numbers elsewhere like in the Nike EYCL with a team-leading 4 APG and at 4 APG to 1 TO, I think he, again, effectively breaks into the first backup 1 spot by Playoffs time, and gets those screens/picks and closeouts that he wants. And particularly so if the Magic went to the MLE for a wing, and were stuck with the Min/BAE on a point. Jase Richardson; 75.4% FG% in restricted zone paint, 63.8% going a little further out in the paint, and 47.5% of pull up 2's.
HOWEVER, if you would rather see the Playoffs time Lineup as this below, then I wouldn't argue it too much because I was still very close to having it like that too. It's a lot of trust in a rookie. And this alternative lineup fits with the theme of 'Can these youngsters show up big time and push into the permanent rotation'. I just think Jase does, by Playoffs time.
Alternative Playoffs time Lineup: Jalen Suggs / _________ / Jase Richardson Desmond Bane / Anthony Black / Jase Richardson Franz Wagner / _________ / Tristan Da Silva Paolo Banchero / Jonathan Isaac / Tristan Da Silva / Noah Penda Wendell Carter Jr. / Mo Wagner / _________
- I am not high on Noah Penda for this current rotation and this current season except for two very unique surprises where we basically made a home run steal of a pick and it's already showing even in the early season. One, his defense is really that insane and he just forces rotation minutes from it. But even that's not enough, because number two, it's if he can be a fantastic Small 5 in the mold of Obi Toppin and Naz Reid that we just saw in the Playoffs. These Athletic 4's who part-time a lot these days as Small 5's because many games and series dictate it as a good move, to have that nimbler Big who can switch on defense easier while still help defending, and who can provide something on offense whether its spacing, put-backs, or passing connectivity, but being at least average in spacing seems to be the main requirement. Otherwise, I think Penda is waiting for 1-2 injuries in the frontcourt before he can see any playtime. And any "less than best case view" also leaves us with two Centers only, making a small rotation hole with only WCJ, Mo, and Small 5 JI there.
Just realised the Magic went large in "consolidation" as two players were traded, two were declined, and NINE draft picks were used: all to acquire three players only.
drsd wrote:Just realised the Magic went large in "consolidation" as two players were traded, two were declined, and NINE draft picks were used: all to acquire three players only.
Expansion draft on 2 - 4 years? You can’t protect everyone.
RichCollab wrote:Vet guard seems to be pretty important. Moe may be the less important move.
Guards: Suggs Bane AB Jase Jett
You forgot Houstan and Queen. We got plenty of guards while Centers appear to get injured more often due to more physical play in the paint thus depth is important for big men. Guards are a dime a dozen when it comes to 3rd and 4th guards.
Suggs gets injured we are relying way too much on young guys or barely NBA.
I would argue some teams carry 1-2 centers. Did you see how late they were picked?
The current depth chart seems to have a lot of question marks:
C: W. Carter, M. Wagner, G. Bitadze F: P. Banchero, J. Isaac, N. Penda? F: F. Wagner, C. Houstan?, T. da Silva? G: D. Bane, J. Richardson?, J. Howard? G: J. Suggs, A. Black
We still look pretty weak at the lead guard slot. Wonder if we could get Chris Paul on a vet min?
BadMofoPimp wrote:Reached for a 2nd round talent in Nicholson.
DiplomaticMagic wrote:We better re-sign Moritz man
Nah we good
Prepare to be disappointed.
Put it this way...WCJ’s backup is Goga, Bane’s backup is Jett. Which of those roles feels like the bigger need to upgrade?
We’re going to decline Moritz’s $11M option and face a choice. The logical move is to use that flexibility to strengthen the backup shooting guard spot. If Moritz is open to coming back on whatever’s left after that, great. But the priority should be clear.
Put it this way...WCJ’s backup is Goga, Bane’s backup is Jett. Which of those roles feels like the bigger need to upgrade?
We’re going to decline Moritz’s $11M option and face a choice. The logical move is to use that flexibility to strengthen the backup shooting guard spot. If Moritz is open to coming back on whatever’s left after that, great. But the priority should be clear.
I know you don't want to hear it, but I think it's at least possible they bring in more of a "pure" point guard instead of a SG and Black plays more of a combo role next to said pure point guard.
I know I’m beating a dead horse, but when you really dissect the roster Orlando still doesn’t have one single player that is a natural point guard.
Not a combo guard, not a playmaking forward that plays like a point, not a shooting guard that has playmaking skills. Just natural day-1 point guard that plays only one position and knows nothing else.
I wonder if that boat has sailed forever or something they will try to address via free agency.
Moe Wagner is our most reliable scorer off the bench, one of the better back-up bigs in the NBA. He is a brother of our top player, great for the locker room and crowd, and fits our identity. And we are not sure we will bring him back?
This isnt a Thanasis situation, Moe can play! Bringing him back is priority #1
DiplomaticMagic wrote:Moe Wagner is our most reliable scorer off the bench, one of the better back-up bigs in the NBA. He is a brother of our top player, great for the locker room and crowd, and fits our identity. And we are not sure we will bring him back?
This isnt a Thanasis situation, Moe can play! Bringing him back is priority #1
Put it this way...WCJ’s backup is Goga, Bane’s backup is Jett. Which of those roles feels like the bigger need to upgrade?
We’re going to decline Moritz’s $11M option and face a choice. The logical move is to use that flexibility to strengthen the backup shooting guard spot. If Moritz is open to coming back on whatever’s left after that, great. But the priority should be clear.
I know you don't want to hear it, but I think it's at least possible they bring in more of a "pure" point guard instead of a SG and Black plays more of a combo role next to said pure point guard.
Honestly, I’m fine if that’s the route they go. I just push back on the idea that it HAS to happen or that the front office has CLEARLY SIGNALED it will. There’s a difference between one possible outcome and a foregone conclusion based on incorrect premises.
Put it this way...WCJ’s backup is Goga, Bane’s backup is Jett. Which of those roles feels like the bigger need to upgrade?
We’re going to decline Moritz’s $11M option and face a choice. The logical move is to use that flexibility to strengthen the backup shooting guard spot. If Moritz is open to coming back on whatever’s left after that, great. But the priority should be clear.
I know you don't want to hear it, but I think it's at least possible they bring in more of a "pure" point guard instead of a SG and Black plays more of a combo role next to said pure point guard.
Honestly, I’m fine if that’s the route they go. I just push back on the idea that it HAS to happen or that the front office has CLEARLY SIGNALED it will. There’s a difference between one possible outcome and a foregone conclusion based on incorrect premises.
Banes, Suggs, Franz and Banchero can all handle the ball very well. I think we be fine and bring a Cojo level player in.
