Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread

[KillMonger]

Watch on YouTube

[The Effect]

Watch on YouTube

Come draft day he's gonna be out of reach

He's gonna go 6-8 range

We will probably be drafting 10 and 12

[The Effect]

I’m sure they meant well, but this isn’t the flex they think it is ... we made the trade so we could TANK!!

Read on Twitter

?s=12

And denver is 4-0 since trading for AG

[DiplomaticMagic]

Really going to suck after researching the top 5 players all year to end up in 6-10 range.

[The Effect]

Really going to suck after researching the top 5 players all year to end up in 6-10 range.

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

[GelbeWand09]

Really going to suck after researching the top 5 players all year to end up in 6-10 range.

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

In 3 years we have the same problem all over again. A bunch of roleplayer we have to pay or trade

[The Effect]

Really going to suck after researching the top 5 players all year to end up in 6-10 range.

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

In 3 years we have the same problem all over again. A bunch of roleplayer we have to pay or trade

Yeah man, it's gonna be awesome, .500 every year, 7-8 seed, more mid round picks......this rebuild is gonna be awesome!

[pepe1991]

Really going to suck after researching the top 5 players all year to end up in 6-10 range.

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

In 3 years we have the same problem all over again. A bunch of roleplayer we have to pay or trade

Execlly. Drafting outside top 3 simply isn't that rewarding.

Each and every year there are less and less chance of finding superstars outside top 5 picks, because all teams pay high money to scouting and invest incredible amount of time in following players. Teams simply do their homework.

2020 nba draft top 2 best players: 1st and 3rd pick
2019: best players: 1st and 2 pick
2018: 3rd and 5th
2017: 3rd , 13# ( first anomaly)
2016: 1st ,2
2015: 1st , 4th ( 13# , if you view Booker as better player than Zingis/ Towns)


There is simply no way that in today's era somebody like Jokic falls to second round, no way. Pokuševski is best example that teams will search heaven and hell to find any hidden talent. They found that guy playing same tear division of Giannis, and didn't even wanted to wait another year to bring him in nba. Guy turned 19 like 2 months ago, was almost illegal to draft him.


note* i'm talking about SUPERSTARS, you can find few time allstar or above average role player all over the draft, most of those guys are product of environment, guys like Siakam and OG were developed because their teams didn't need them to take huge roles, rather allowed them to grow into a roles. I'm talking about franchise changing talents. Potential top 10 players, future hall of famers.

[KillMonger]

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

In 3 years we have the same problem all over again. A bunch of roleplayer we have to pay or trade

Execlly. Drafting outside top 3 simply isn't that rewarding.

Each and every year there are less and less chance of finding superstars outside top 5 picks, because all teams pay high money to scouting and invest incredible amount of time in following players. Teams simply do their homework.

2020 nba draft top 2 best players: 1st and 3rd pick
2019: best players: 1st and 2 pick
2018: 3rd and 5th
2017: 3rd , 13# ( first anomaly)
2016: 1st ,2
2015: 1st , 4th ( 13# , if you view Booker as better player than Zingis/ Towns)


There is simply no way that in today's era somebody like Jokic falls to second round, no way. Pokuševski is best example that teams will search heaven and hell to find any hidden talent. They found that guy playing same tear division of Giannis, and didn't even wanted to wait another year to bring him in nba. Guy turned 19 like 2 months ago, was almost illegal to draft him.


note* i'm talking about SUPERSTARS, you can find few time allstar or above average role player all over the draft, most of those guys are product of environment, guys like Siakam and OG were developed because their teams didn't need them to take huge roles, rather allowed them to grow into a roles. I'm talking about franchise changing talents. Potential top 10 players, future hall of famers.

jesus....wow.....i think this is probably one of the few times i wholeheartedly agree with one of your posts

[D J C]

2020: 3 - 1 - 8 - 7
2019: 7 - 8 - 1 - 11
2018: 1 - 7 - 4
2017: 1 - 3 - 8

17 & 18 the top 3 had much better odds than the new system too

Not sure why everyone’s freaking out going from 4 to 5, WeltHam is just doing the big brain move of getting to that sweet 7 spot

[KillMonger]

Watch on YouTube

Come draft day he's gonna be out of reach

He's gonna go 6-8 range

We will probably be drafting 10 and 12

He and to a slightly lesser extent Jalen Johnson have that lebron/giannis freight train trait.....if they get the rebound and take off it's hard to stop them going downhill because of their ballhandling ability for their size, both of them being about 6"9.....Jalen is the better shooter of the two though

[Just Plain Mark]

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

In 3 years we have the same problem all over again. A bunch of roleplayer we have to pay or trade

Execlly. Drafting outside top 3 simply isn't that rewarding.

Each and every year there are less and less chance of finding superstars outside top 5 picks, because all teams pay high money to scouting and invest incredible amount of time in following players. Teams simply do their homework.

2020 nba draft top 2 best players: 1st and 3rd pick
2019: best players: 1st and 2 pick
2018: 3rd and 5th
2017: 3rd , 13# ( first anomaly)
2016: 1st ,2
2015: 1st , 4th ( 13# , if you view Booker as better player than Zingis/ Towns)


There is simply no way that in today's era somebody like Jokic falls to second round, no way. Pokuševski is best example that teams will search heaven and hell to find any hidden talent. They found that guy playing same tear division of Giannis, and didn't even wanted to wait another year to bring him in nba. Guy turned 19 like 2 months ago, was almost illegal to draft him.


note* i'm talking about SUPERSTARS, you can find few time allstar or above average role player all over the draft, most of those guys are product of environment, guys like Siakam and OG were developed because their teams didn't need them to take huge roles, rather allowed them to grow into a roles. I'm talking about franchise changing talents. Potential top 10 players, future hall of famers.

I don't think that "superstar or the draft isn't that rewarding" is a good, basketball team building metric to use for several reasons: 1) There are only a finite number of franchise changing talents to go around, whether they're in the draft or not; 2) Based on point 1, I'd say the odds of the Magic acquiring a franchise changing talent are higher in the draft than in free agency or trade; 3) "every year there are less and less chance of finding superstars outside the top 5" except for the exceptionss you noted plus players like Jamal Murray (drafted at #7), Bam Adebayo (drafted at #14), Shai Gilgeous Alexander (drafted at #11) and others show that NBA teams consistently miss on prospects. I don't see any scouting improvements from 2017 until now that makes that fundamentally changes draft strategy and approaches

Really, for me, the view that the draft is a crapshoot fails to accurately compare drafting to free agency and trades as methods to improve a team. Its not that drafting doesn't have high percentages of failure, its that the Magic aren't an FA destination and they don't have anymore assets to trade for superstars. So the comparison of team building methods isn't "actual draft success vs perceived draft success of fans", the comparison is "drafting vs trades vs FA."

[PrimeThyme]

Spoiler:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_results/2020

Guys, take a look at how the lottery odds have changed things over the last two drafts though. New Orleans and Memphis both jumped 6 spots to draft 1/2 in 2019. Los Angeles jumped 4 spots to pick 4th. Last year Minny jumped two spots to draft 1st, Charlotte jumped 5 spots to jump to 3rd, and Chicago jumped 3 spots to 4. The teams with the best odds have fallen each year.

Despite teams still tanking anyways, there is 100% less incentive to tank beyond top 8 odds at this point. There is a significant amount of fluctuation within the top 8 picks now.

My whole point is we are going to need luck. Flat out. Odds aren't what they used to be. The Cavs have had the 2nd best odds for two straight drafts now and have drafted outside of the top 4.

[BCS]

Spoiler:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_results/2020

Guys, take a look at how the lottery odds have changed things over the last two drafts though. New Orleans and Memphis both jumped 6 spots to draft 1/2 in 2019. Los Angeles jumped 4 spots to pick 4th. Last year Minny jumped two spots to draft 1st, Charlotte jumped 5 spots to jump to 3rd, and Chicago jumped 3 spots to 4. The teams with the best odds have fallen each year.

Despite teams still tanking anyways, there is 100% less incentive to tank beyond top 8 odds at this point. There is a significant amount of fluctuation within the top 8 picks now.

My whole point is we are going to need luck. Flat out. Odds aren't what they used to be. The Cavs have had the 2nd best odds for two straight drafts now and have drafted outside of the top 4.

Based on the last sentence, so what you are saying is 2nd best odds is due to be in the top 4 this year....hmm....

Kidding aside, the biggest factor in the lottery regardless of your chances is luck, that does not change. But the lower your chance is the higher is the amount of luck you need. I would want the highest % chance at a top 4 pick, now do I stress if we drop to 5 or 6, it sucks but not stressed about it because at the end of the day we still have a chance we will just need more luck now.

But I do not want us winning games on the back of Ross, Ennis, Birch, Otto or any player not part of our future or development. A 50% chance at top 4 is better than 40% or 30%, maybe it is not viewed as much of a difference but it still is. Do you want a 70% free throw shooter with the game on the line or a 90% shooter. You want your best free throw shooter because it gives you the best chances. Can he miss? Yes, nothing is a certainty, but you live with it because he was the best option.

We have a real shot to at least be 4th worst, if we finish 5 or below than I will feel we did not do our part and give ourselves the best chances. Can we get a top 4 pick at 5,6,7? Yes we can, will I feel more comfortable at 4? Yup, plain and simple.

[Skybox]

2020: 3 - 1 - 8 - 7
2019: 7 - 8 - 1 - 11
2018: 1 - 7 - 4
2017: 1 - 3 - 8

17 & 18 the top 3 had much better odds than the new system too

Not sure why everyone’s freaking out going from 4 to 5, WeltHam is just doing the big brain move of getting to that sweet 7 spot

What is this, exactly?

[Nyce_1]

2020: 3 - 1 - 8 - 7
2019: 7 - 8 - 1 - 11
2018: 1 - 7 - 4
2017: 1 - 3 - 8

17 & 18 the top 3 had much better odds than the new system too

Not sure why everyone’s freaking out going from 4 to 5, WeltHam is just doing the big brain move of getting to that sweet 7 spot

What is this, exactly?

these are the pre-lotto slotted team rank and their actual picking order the last couple years.

2019: 7th worse team picked 1 - 8th worse team picked 2 - worst team picked 3rd, 11 worse team pick 4

[Skin]

Can't wait til draft day, Zaire williams and Franz Wagner!!
Gonna make the rebuilt and tank so worth it!

In 3 years we have the same problem all over again. A bunch of roleplayer we have to pay or trade

Execlly. Drafting outside top 3 simply isn't that rewarding.

Each and every year there are less and less chance of finding superstars outside top 5 picks, because all teams pay high money to scouting and invest incredible amount of time in following players. Teams simply do their homework.

2020 nba draft top 2 best players: 1st and 3rd pick
2019: best players: 1st and 2 pick
2018: 3rd and 5th
2017: 3rd , 13# ( first anomaly)
2016: 1st ,2
2015: 1st , 4th ( 13# , if you view Booker as better player than Zingis/ Towns)


There is simply no way that in today's era somebody like Jokic falls to second round, no way. Pokuševski is best example that teams will search heaven and hell to find any hidden talent. They found that guy playing same tear division of Giannis, and didn't even wanted to wait another year to bring him in nba. Guy turned 19 like 2 months ago, was almost illegal to draft him.


note* i'm talking about SUPERSTARS, you can find few time allstar or above average role player all over the draft, most of those guys are product of environment, guys like Siakam and OG were developed because their teams didn't need them to take huge roles, rather allowed them to grow into a roles. I'm talking about franchise changing talents. Potential top 10 players, future hall of famers.

Bro, you're constantly telling us how tanking doesn't work because the odds aren't good. So now that we aren't tanking, don't you feel like we're in your sweet spot in the standings for actually hitting the lottery???

[Skin]

Fiiiiiiiiiiine, Knightro.... We'll fight about it here.

So, who's onboard with Corey Kispert at 6? I was hoping to get him with the CHI pick, but I was also hoping to be picking in the Top 5. Those dreams are now DEAD.

[Def Swami]

There are 9 potential wins left in the season IMHO.

WAS - April 7
SAS - April 12
CHI - April 14
TOR - April 16
HOU - April 18
LAL* - April 26 (are James and Davis still out in 4 weeks?)
CLE - April 28
DET - May 3
MIN - May 9

And then there are the other playoff teams that may sit their starters against us. We aren't fielding a good team. This is going to require a lot of luck in terms of who is healthy against the Magic and some likely meaningless bounces in a game or so here. It will require a lot of luck in the lottery. I'm just hoping that the basketball gods reward the Magic for not flat out sucking to finish the season.

[GelbeWand09]

Fiiiiiiiiiiine, Knightro.... We'll fight about it here.

So, who's onboard with Corey Kispert at 6? I was hoping to get him with the CHI pick, but I was also hoping to be picking in the Top 5. Those dreams are now DEAD.

Before i draft him at 6 i offer 3 picks to trade up or trade down & get another asset. Or hope Barnes lerns to shoot or Johnson becomes our MPJr.