Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[eyriq]

Red and blue contradict each other.

if we are so young, there is no reason to prioritize winning.

if we don't prioritize winning and want to develop, there is zero reasons to judge young players based on performacnes and cut their PT based on it. They are expected to suck.



Again, i don't think there are fans who want to cash in all chips and go for title, knowing it's impossible. I think Magic fan camps are split between:

1) let's develop whole team from ground up and let's keep everybody for as long as it's possible
2) let's develop SOME players but also let's adress our issues to keep sustained growth


We have no control over new contract of Fultz, who is UFA, but we start him over 5th, 6th and 15th own picks.
We have 1# pick and ROY, but we seems to be in no particular hurry to even tweek roster to make his life easier ( rather opposite by decisions who we make, or not make based on our PG-SG rotation).
On other side of a spectrum , we are 100% fine with notion that our two lottery picks won't be in rotation any time soon.


My personal feeling is that we afraid to make moves in fear of "losing" trade that it petrifies us. And that will lead us to position where we will be reacting, instad of being proactive. And we lack guts to make hard decisions.(by "we= Weltman).
So , hard moves won't be our personal decision , rather something or somebody who forced our hand. It's not like this didn't happen in very recent past. Gordon forced their hand 2 years ago after they were perfeclly fine doing nothing for 3 years.

And most important factor here is fact that we are now on borrowed time when it comes to rookie scale contracts and massive exstensions that are lurking. In next two years, Magic are pased to give up multiple +$100M contracts for next half of decade. At some point you will make decisions or decisions will made your future for you.

This is a great post. At some point we need to zoom in on a build around Paolo and Franz. The young core overachieved last season, providing an indication that it's worth investing in. We have evidence that we can start to build around Paolo and Franz. Make this decision and then focus on identifying an optimal style of play and work to acquire the optimal role players to put around them.

This could be what we're already doing. We just aren't being assertive about it. Yet.

If we don't think we have a championship core, we'll have to cash in for an all-star. Timing there would still be a few seasons away though. Tanking for a franchise player has to be out of the question given the wealth of draft capital and prospects we've already accumulated.

My expectations are that in 4 seasons we'll have 2, maybe 3, players on this current team still around. Moves will be made.

No offense, you called pepe's post great and then said what I said which was.. these players will be identified in due time, which doesn't have to be literally right this second

Well, making a great post and making a post I agree with are two different things haha

[tiderulz]

I don't think it's contradictory - you can prioritize a plan for winning and be smart with your chips. If you're playing poker you can fold and lose a minimal amount or you can keep raising the pot with a hand that you know isn't the best and lose chips for no reason. There's absolutely no reason to make a bunch of trades at this moment, before the season, that can't wait until mid-season or 2024 with a clearer view of what the guard situation will be like and plans for the rookies as well.

Once that pressure is put on them internally, external pressure heats up. Weltman has already addressed he knows he hasn't made a lot of moves and this year is important for a lot of players. It's easy to be a doubting fan and be like "blah, blah, Weltman didn't make moves last year or two so why is he doing it now?" - that's like saying "I've never been hit by a car, it surely can't happen today" - same stuff was going on with Vuc-Gordon-Fournier core until all of them got shipped out, regardless of AG's insistence, it signaled a total tear down.

We can always tweak... you have to know WHAT to tweak to do that. I guarantee you nobody can tell me specific trades Denver or Milwaukee or Philly made in 1st/2nd years of getting what they assumed was their star. You can name the bigger moves later on like getting Jrue or AG/Bruce Brown/KCP to bolster depth or getting Butler/Harden and attempting to win (Philly failed, other teams succeeded), but every team is different. I think we have a decent number of keepers for role guys already and what we're really looking for will take a specific guy to come out of who we have now OR be traded for in the upcoming year or two.

And for those who think the answer is easy on who to trade, extend, start, etc.. look at this forum as an example. Fultz hive, Suggs hive, Cole hive, Black hive.. if every poster is backing different horses, there is no easy choice to make at this moment because everyone's easy choice is different.

I think Harris is probably the only one people feel is expendable, only if we acquire another shooter or someone can get to his level.

shooting, from the guard positions. we've known that for years now.

[Knightro]

Ultimately, I just want them to choose a path. Are they trying to win games this season or are they trying to develop guys?

I know I've said this about 15 times in the last two weeks, but it's just very difficult to do both at the same time.

Want to win? Then play the optimal lineups for winning and also make a consolidation trade.

Want to keep developing? Create consistent playing time and roles for the guys who have a future here.

[SOUL]

you can only play 5 people at a time. so we keep all the players and play them 20 mpg, stunt their development (or their showing they wont develop)? we will be 4 years from now still talking about "potential" of players.

Tell me who we're moving then and for who. It's easy to say move people.

You can easily get Fultz/Cole/Suggs around 30 minutes which isn't some low number - Jokic plays 33 minutes a game.

Harris makes sense to lose minutes from last year, Black and Jett unfortunately aren't going to get as many minutes as the rookies before them, but that's a sign of an improving team.. it doesn't mean you wasted spots by drafting them. It's like arguing to trade JJ Redick after his rookie year because he wasn't getting more than 14 minutes on a 40 win team.

You guys wrote paragraphs about this last year as well, and we were down to our 3rd stringers 2 weeks into the season.. sometimes depth figures out itself.

[SOUL]

shooting, from the guard positions. we've known that for years now.

this is not answering my post at all. I want a Lillard/Booker backcourt, I'm not getting that.

Who are we moving for this shooting and who is coming back?

[Skybox]

"Buy and Hold" works for Real Estate and Mutual Funds...but not for cars, boats, and undeveloped players. Parking guys on the bench depreciates them more than letting them make a few mistakes to learn from. Trades don't have to be bad trades...ORL fans and, maybe, front office seem more worried about making a mistake than making progress.

too much 3D chess, "crazy like a fox" stuff here and not enough boldly deciding "let's get better players" or at least better fitting players as a strategy. People pointing to AG as a function of patience...he would have excelled in DEN as a rookie, because they put him in the right role. I don't think his skill set was that mysterious to anyone but we choose to watch our guys grow like a plant. I don't mind our guys excelling elsewhere due to fit...I just don't like waiting and paying them for years before we tap out.

[basketballRob]

It's nice to have a healthy team.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[eyriq]

My ideal approach is to build around Paolo and Franz. My ideal build is:

PG: playmaking shot creator
SG: sharpshooting defender
C: rebounding post scorer

So, a backcourt like Rondo / Klay is what I'd try for. Black and Jett?

[Knightro]

shooting, from the guard positions. we've known that for years now.

this is not answering my post at all. I want a Lillard/Booker backcourt, I'm not getting that.

Who are we moving for this shooting and who is coming back?

My feelings on this differ than the masses I'm sure.

I feel like the Magic have enough quality youth and could surround that youth with legit veteran talent right now.

The "core" in my eyes is Banchero (20), Wagner (22), Carter (24), Suggs (22) and Black (19). Those five guys are the ones I expect to keep getting better and will ultimately determine the ceiling of this roster. Howard would be next in line.

As far as I'm concerned, everyone else can be moved for better veterans right now and it would be fine.

[SOUL]

Ultimately, I just want them to choose a path. Are they trying to win games this season or are they trying to develop guys?

I know I've said this about 15 times in the last two weeks, but it's just very difficult to do both at the same time.

Want to win? Then play the optimal lineups for winning and also make a consolidation trade.

Want to keep developing? Create consistent playing time and roles for the guys who have a future here.

You know I like ya Knightro - but this desire to either play them 30 minutes or dump Jett and Black because they got drafted into a situation where their minutes won't be gifted right away is weird to me. It makes sense to have them come along slowly and get spot minutes, injury minutes (which will happen) and not continuing losing 40+ games a season because of 100% plan of development.

Hendricks got drafted to Utah and is barely getting burn in preseason and is behind a lot of forwards.

Amen and Whitmore are going to get okay minutes, but their backcourt/wing is also very packed with Tari, Brooks, Bullock, FVV, Jalen needing minutes.

Cason will have to contend with SGA, Dort, Micic, Giddey, Joe.

A team we just played had Dyson Daniels who found himself in a very crowded backcourt and now sees his minutes looking to increase.

This is not some crazy strategy to have a low minute plan at first with them. Development is not only on the floor.

[SOUL]

shooting, from the guard positions. we've known that for years now.

this is not answering my post at all. I want a Lillard/Booker backcourt, I'm not getting that.

Who are we moving for this shooting and who is coming back?

My feelings on this differ than the masses I'm sure.

I feel like the Magic have enough quality youth and could surround that youth with legit veteran talent right now.

The "core" in my eyes is Banchero (20), Wagner (22), Carter (24), Suggs (22) and Black (19). Those five guys are the ones I expect to keep getting better and will ultimately determine the ceiling of this roster. Howard would be next in line.

As far as I'm concerned, everyone else can be moved for better veterans right now and it would be fine.

I don't disagree in theory in that these guys should be the future, and depending on Fultz/Cole (I think only one will be retained), then other dominoes may fall.

I'm also not advocating NOT to constantly look to upgrade the team. That should always be the priority.

I'm saying that it's not easy to identify a specific player that the board agrees on moving even 80% (like it was with Fournier/Vuc/Gordon at a certain point) and also specify the return that is fair value and is attainable and realistic. To me, advocating for change without any sort of specifics just seems whiny and wanting change for the sake of change. Not at you, but some people just want something to happen with no real idea in mind other than "get star, get shooter" - okay.. how?

For instance, I would love to get Hield here. He's on the market, gets the shot volume I like, spaces the floor, and fits our team.

Who would the Pacers want in return that is fair value is the real question, and then that becomes who I'd be fine with letting go. Because I'd be fine with some trades and not others.

Simons? Sure. That's a different package I'd be okay with sending, etc.

[VFX]

Ultimately, I just want them to choose a path. Are they trying to win games this season or are they trying to develop guys?

I know I've said this about 15 times in the last two weeks, but it's just very difficult to do both at the same time.

Want to win? Then play the optimal lineups for winning and also make a consolidation trade.

Want to keep developing? Create consistent playing time and roles for the guys who have a future here.

You know I like ya Knightro - but this desire to either play them 30 minutes or dump Jett and Black because they got drafted into a situation where their minutes won't be gifted right away is weird to me. It makes sense to have them come along slowly and get spot minutes, injury minutes (which will happen) and not continuing losing 40+ games a season because of 100% plan of development.

Hendricks got drafted to Utah and is barely getting burn in preseason and is behind a lot of forwards.

Amen and Whitmore are going to get okay minutes, but their backcourt/wing is also very packed with Tari, Brooks, Bullock, FVV, Jalen needing minutes.

Cason will have to contend with SGA, Dort, Micic, Giddey, Joe.

A team we just played had Dyson Daniels who found himself in a very crowded backcourt and now sees his minutes looking to increase.

This is not some crazy strategy to have a low minute plan at first with them. Development is not only on the floor.

Just to jump in here…

I think the context matters for the situation. Sure, if you are drafted to the Warriors, or some contending team, then it would be expected that rooks wouldn’t get minutes.

If you are drafted to a bottom dwelling team that earned the pick, then you might have more of an argument for developing different players.

I get that these guys are infatuated with being “a playoff team” right away but that’s going to require a lot of experience and the right kind of talent to happen. Everyone knows they need to consolidate assets for that to be a reality. However, the FO don’t even know what they have yet.

Development is really the only direction right now. I think the assets are too raw to make a real “all in” push for someone substantial without making an Ibaka 2.0 situation a reality.

[Knightro]

You know I like ya Knightro - but this desire to either play them 30 minutes or dump Jett and Black because they got drafted into a situation where their minutes won't be gifted right away is weird to me. It makes sense to have them come along slowly and get spot minutes, injury minutes (which will happen) and not continuing losing 40+ games a season because of 100% plan of development.

Hendricks got drafted to Utah and is barely getting burn in preseason and is behind a lot of forwards.

Amen and Whitmore are going to get okay minutes, but their backcourt/wing is also very packed with Tari, Brooks, Bullock, FVV, Jalen needing minutes.

Cason will have to contend with SGA, Dort, Micic, Giddey, Joe.

A team we just played had Dyson Daniels who found himself in a very crowded backcourt and now sees his minutes looking to increase.

This is not some crazy strategy to have a low minute plan at first with them. Development is not only on the floor.

I just want to clarify something here.

I don't want to dump Black or Jett at all. Like not at all. I like both guys.

I also don't have a problem with those guys not playing either. But if you're actively making the decision to not play lotto picks, it better be because you're actively trying to win and not just filling time with veterans who won't be here in a year.

Does that make sense?

If the argument is "oh well we can't justify playing them consistently because we can't deal with rookie struggles right now and we want to win" then actually try and win for real.

[CarraT]

There's absolutely no reason to make a bunch of trades at this moment, before the season, that can't wait until mid-season or 2024 with a clearer view of what the guard situation will be like and plans for the rookies as well.

No reason? So you think young guards that are not playing for a year are not losing trade value? Thats what happened to many Orlando Players. Instead of trading them while they still had trade value, we kept them for no reason (except being panically afraid of making hard decision and lose a trade, like already said) until there was no trade value left, because whole league knew they suck if they cant even get playing time on one of the worst teams in NBA.
Right now, Fultz, Suggs, Black, Howard, Anthony, Howard still have trade value. We know we cant give all of them the necessary playing time, in addition most of them are bad fit to our core Banchero/Wagner. So why wait until half of them has zero trade value again, instead of trading them as long as we get something that fits our core in the long term?
If we want to imrove, it has to be via trades, because next FA class sucks, and after that we already need our whole cap space for Wagner Supermax, possible Fultz or Sauggs extension, Carter extension, etc., we simply wont have enough cap space for a big free agent after that.
But for improving via trade, we need to have assets. Assets are young players on good contracts. If we collect them and bury them on the bench, they will lose trade value, are not on rookie contracts anyore, and therefore we lose the ability to improve via trade, too, beacuse we waited too long, again. Same thing that happend with Gordon, Ross, Fournier, Bol, Okeke, Bamba, Hampton, etc. etc.
So yes, time is ticking, our assets are losing value, our cap space wont be there for long, we already know our core for the future. Get something done to create a functional roster that fits together finally, after 12 years of evaluating.

[VFX]

There's absolutely no reason to make a bunch of trades at this moment, before the season, that can't wait until mid-season or 2024 with a clearer view of what the guard situation will be like and plans for the rookies as well.

No reason? So you think young guards that are not playing for a year are not losing trade value? Thats what happened to many Orlando Players. Instead of trading them while they still had trade value, we kept them for no reason (except being panically afraid of making hard decision and lose a trade, like already said) until there was no trade value left, because whole league knew they suck if they cant even get playing time on one of the worst teams in NBA.
Right now, Fultz, Suggs, Black, Howard, Anthony, Howard still have trade value. We know we cant give all of them the necessary playing time, in addition most of them are bad fit to our core Banchero/Wagner. So why wait until half of them has zero trade value again, instead of trading them as long as we get something that fits our core in the long term?
If we want to imrove, it has to be via trades, because next FA class sucks, and after that we already need our whole cap space for Wagner Supermax, possible Fultz or Sauggs extension, Carter extension, etc., we simply wont have enough cap space for a big free agent after that.
But for improving via trade, we need to have assets. Assets are young players on good contracts. If we collect them and bury them on the bench, they will lose trade value, are not on rookie contracts anyore, and therefore we lose the ability to improve via trade, too, beacuse we waited too long, again. Same thing that happend with Gordon, Ross, Fournier, Bol, Okeke, Bamba, Hampton, etc. etc.
So yes, time is ticking, our assets are losing value, our cap space wont be there for long, we already know our core for the future. Get something done to create a functional roster that fits together finally, after 12 years of evaluating.

I agree with this, especially the bolded.

I think this ultimately comes down to the FO moving one of Fultz or Suggs. Why? Because in my estimation they are both starters/fringe starters right now that cannot play together realistically. They both impact the game differently but neither balance each other out.

You could convince me to move Cole, but I’m not sure what the return would be for a starter and he’s perfect off the bench. It’s way too early to think about moving Black and Howard. We don’t know what they are yet.

I would be moving Fultz before resigning him. Cole and Suggs were great together in the second unit. The problem comes down to who you are getting in return now for an expiring deal and if they are an upgrade.

[The-Stallion70]

Cole is a talented player we have to try to retain him. We can't just let our guys go.

[SOUL]

Read on Twitter

[Bensational]

Our fans are so hungry to trade players that played good together and like each other lol.. it's amazing to me that thought process considering we're not winning it all this year and other way better teams are going all in and our best two players are literal 21 and 22 year olds.

So yes, seeing how we made dumbass trades in the past because of an itch to "get better", it backfired and created a limited 8th seed with less assets to trade until we hit the reset button. The same hypocritical fans who wanted a get rich quick scheme are quick to point fingers at Hennigan like they weren't drooling on themselves to hurry the process up because they were spoiled from Dwight era winning.

Also if we're not sure who is a keeper between Fultz, Suggs and Cole yet, other teams aren't going to fairly value them either. It's easy to say trade these guys, nobody ever provides a trade that isn't a complete rip off for the other team or one that makes sense from both teams POV.

Not to mention, a desire to naturally win, as the team currently has been talking about since the end of last year, creates more expectation and accountability. Movement is inevitable. Good play from what is conducive to winning will get rewarded, bad play will spell trades or benching.

The names don't matter, so player fans will have to suck it up. I'm sure 49ers fans didn't think Brock Purdy would be their future

Red and blue contradict each other.

if we are so young, there is no reason to prioritize winning.

if we don't prioritize winning and want to develop, there is zero reasons to judge young players based on performacnes and cut their PT based on it. They are expected to suck.

A weird narrative has started to form on this board that development and competition are mutually exclusive, as if a team can’t develop and compete at the same time. There’s a spectrum of options but people keep presuming everything can only happen at one end or the other: either tank or contend, and that’s just a naive perspective.

A tanking team can be prepared to ignore current performances whilst they chase L’s. That isn’t “development”, that’s tanking. Development happens when players develop winning habits. Development comes from competition, not from a zero stakes environment. After a few seasons you end up with overlap of young prospects and at that point you need some degree of accountability in order to decide which prospect deserves the minutes.

We’re lucky that we drafted competitive players, so even in our tank times the guys hustled like every play mattered. Now our new young guys have to not only live up to that standard, they have to beat it if they want minutes.

For those who still don’t realise where we are developmentally - we’re only just at the beginning of what’s likely a 2-4 year rise into becoming a team that can fight for the championship. Don’t expect the destination any time soon and you’ll enjoy the journey a whole lot more.

[Bensational]

"Buy and Hold" works for Real Estate and Mutual Funds...but not for cars, boats, and undeveloped players. Parking guys on the bench depreciates them more than letting them make a few mistakes to learn from. Trades don't have to be bad trades...ORL fans and, maybe, front office seem more worried about making a mistake than making progress.

too much 3D chess, "crazy like a fox" stuff here and not enough boldly deciding "let's get better players" or at least better fitting players as a strategy. People pointing to AG as a function of patience...he would have excelled in DEN as a rookie, because they put him in the right role. I don't think his skill set was that mysterious to anyone but we choose to watch our guys grow like a plant. I don't mind our guys excelling elsewhere due to fit...I just don't like waiting and paying them for years before we tap out.

It’s not buy and hold, it’s develop a contributor to a winning environment and raise their value. Doing that with a player on a rookie scale contract who becomes expendable is where teams secure the best value.

Boston built a winning team and then continued to add cheap young guys who could help sustain that. Rozier, Grant and Robert Williams, Neismith, Pritchard, etc. That expanded depth is what not only helped them become contenders, it’s what has allowed them to make consolidation trades to add Brogdon, Holiday and Porzingis.

GSW have done the same with their youth and depth they mismanaged Wiseman, but they turned Poole into a player who could help win a championship, and then into CP3.

FVV and Simons both developed off the bench on winning teams and became players in demand.

Once a team shows they can win it raises the floor value of a lot of their players because they no longer exist entirely on potential, they have some results to their name.

Edit - the real estate metaphor is fun if you consider that we own the neighbourhood, and we’re developing blocks independently. The more we can produce a consistent theme and harmony amongst each block the more we can increase perceived value of the whole.

[best of luck]

43 wins because we are better than a .500 team