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Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV "Re-Building" Edition)

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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1481 » by Darth Magic » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:41 pm

VGOSWAMI wrote:I don't think Afflalo is part of the long term plan. I think he's an asset who we hope will stat pad and build up his trade value. Hopefully we can land better draft picks with him in the short term, or good role players in the long term.



Basically. We will get another lottery pick in 2013 draft using Afflalo and another player
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1482 » by ChildishGambino » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:43 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:
Deezy wrote:Wrong on all accounts.

Cap space is a figure which fits into a direction; concept is a plan that visualizes salaries to determine the way ahead.

For 2014 you're missing Nelson and Harrington. Prior to the trade we would've had Nelson, BBD and JRich ($22M at most assuming Nelson is making $8M+) on the books. Now we'll have Nelson, Afflalo, BBD and Harrington ($27M). So, by making this trade, we've added long term salary.

Try again.

EDIT: Harrington is not being dealt for an expiring. His contract is more toxic than Hedo's due to the progressive cap hits.


Miss again. In basic physics we teach kids the difference between scalars and vectors. Cap space is a similar mystery. The available cap space is a scalar value while its use has a particular direction it could lead us and therefore can be associated with a vector quantity. Unless you are capable of predicting the future, we can't yet evaluate the direction with this flexibility will take us. So we have no choice but to talk simply of the raw amount.

Nelson's third year is not fully guaranteed and all reports I have read to this point claim that Hennigan has little interest in keeping Harrington. I have more faith in Henny's judgement on the likelihood that Al can be traded than a random, angry internet poster. There was no option available that would have left Orlando in a good spot. You sound like a pretty intelligent person. Just take a few deep breaths, count to ten and re-evaluate the situation based on other options that were available to us.

well said...opp...i mean...And 1
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1483 » by Swiftraven » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:46 pm

Deezy wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
Deezy wrote:This trade put us in a worse cap situation, not better. How do people still not understand that concept?


You're talking about the cap space which is a raw stat. There is no "concept" to understand.

As I said before, this is stage one of a bigger plan. I fully expect Harrington to be traded at the deadline if not sooner. If that happens and Orlando drops players on team options next season while letting Hedo walk for his $6M guaranteed, then Orlando is looking at just $43M on the books next year. For 2014 we would only have Glen Davis and Aaron Aflalo locked in. How is that worse than where we were?

I repeat... this trade was just the bulldozer step in a bigger plan. We can't judge Hennigan on this until we see what gets built on top of this.


Wrong on all accounts.

Cap space is a figure which fits into a direction; concept is a plan that visualizes salaries to determine the way ahead.

For 2014 you're missing Nelson and Harrington. Prior to the trade we would've had Nelson, BBD and JRich ($22M at most assuming Nelson is making $8M+) on the books. Now we'll have Nelson, Afflalo, BBD and Harrington ($27M). So, by making this trade, we've added long term salary.

Try again.

EDIT: Harrington is not being dealt for an expiring. His contract is more toxic than Hedo's due to the progressive cap hits.


I don't understand your stance on Harrington's contract. He will be traded, I am 100% positive of that. Even if he isnt, after this year, his next 2 years are only partially guaranteed for like 3.75 million or some such. It is not a hard contract to trade, especially since he is still a good player.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1484 » by Deezy » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:49 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:
Deezy wrote:Wrong on all accounts.

Cap space is a figure which fits into a direction; concept is a plan that visualizes salaries to determine the way ahead.

For 2014 you're missing Nelson and Harrington. Prior to the trade we would've had Nelson, BBD and JRich ($22M at most assuming Nelson is making $8M+) on the books. Now we'll have Nelson, Afflalo, BBD and Harrington ($27M). So, by making this trade, we've added long term salary.

Try again.

EDIT: Harrington is not being dealt for an expiring. His contract is more toxic than Hedo's due to the progressive cap hits.


Miss again. In basic physics we teach kids the difference between scalars and vectors. Cap space is a similar mystery. The available cap space is a scalar value while its use has a particular direction it could lead us and therefore can be associated with a vector quantity. Unless you are capable of predicting the future, we can't yet evaluate the direction with this flexibility will take us. So we have no choice but to talk simply of the raw amount.

Nelson's third year is not fully guaranteed and all reports I have read to this point claim that Hennigan has little interest in keeping Harrington. I have more faith in Henny's judgement on the likelihood that Al can be traded than a random, angry internet poster. There was no option available that would have left Orlando in a good spot. You sound like a pretty intelligent person. Just take a few deep breaths, count to ten and re-evaluate the situation based on other options that were available to us.


:lol:

You're taking it too far with the physics analogy. Contracts are simplified and direction can easily be projected with vision. A Magic fan of all people should be aware of this. Think Duncan/Hill/McGrady.

We'll agree to disagree.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1485 » by Deezy » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:52 pm

Let's revisit this thread when/if Harrington is traded. I'm willing to bet we have to include an asset or take on another bad contract to get rid of him.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1486 » by MagicFan101 » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:57 pm

Deezy wrote:Let's revisit this thread when/if Harrington is traded. I'm willing to bet we have to include an asset or take on another bad contract to get rid of him.


Sounds good to me.

If Harrington can't be moved, my interest in this trade diminishes quite a bit. But still, you have to consider that Houston would not take back bad contracts, the Nets insisted we take both Humphries and Lopez (bad contracts now) and Bynum's health has always scared me. The only other option was letting Dwight walk. At least we get some relief (regardless of a Harrington trade) and 5 draft picks. Those picks will not be great, but they can help leverage future deals.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1487 » by ChildishGambino » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:01 pm

Can we open up another thread so all the whiners can complain about the trade there? i'm not defending the trade on that respect i'm indifferent really since it's already done and i have no control over it.....but the constant whining and complaining.....oh and you gotta love how people are still saying how bad the trade was by breaking it down astutely when at the end of the day...they're still just saying how bad the trade was....how many different ways can you say it? i mean...
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1488 » by Nyce_1 » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:09 pm

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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1489 » by OrlandO » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:17 pm

ChildishGambino wrote:Can we open up another thread so all the whiners can complain about the trade there? i'm not defending the trade on that respect i'm indifferent really since it's already done and i have no control over it.....but the constant whining and complaining.....oh and you gotta love how people are still saying how bad the trade was by breaking it down astutely when at the end of the day...they're still just saying how bad the trade was....how many different ways can you say it? i mean...

They would still invade the optimistic thread because their goal is to bring everybody else down to their pessimistic level.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1490 » by RussellandFlow » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:24 pm

Affalo and "another player" is not going to net this team a 2013 lottery pick. The best case scenario for this team going forward is that at least two young guys (Harkless, Nicholson, Vučević, etc) develop and become good players who buy into the team concept. I think as currently constituted this team will not be the worst team in the league, Charlotte has that crown and it's not even close. I think this could be a 30-35 win team. Hopefully, the team ends up with a top 5 pick (ideally top three) and you're able to get Noel, Shabazz or Zeller and watch them become a superstar.

I know many are still bummed about what the team got back, but more times than not if you look throughout the history of the league, one never really gets "equal value' for a superstar player/talent. I remember when the 76ers traded Barkley who was in his prime to Phoenix for Tim Perry, Jeff Hornacek, 29, and Andrew Lang. Remember Toronto traded Vince Carter to the Nets for Eric & Aaron Williams and two first round picks (Mourning never suited up for Toronto so I don't really consider him a part of the trade).

People should be able to express themselves (positively, negatively, indifferent, etc) about this trade without someone telling them you're wrong and I'm right. For the sake of this franchise, if the organization is fortunate to get another big time talent via the draft, Hennigan will need to surround him with the pieces to make the team a contender. The blueprint for how "NOT" to do was left by Otis, so Hennigan has no excuses.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1491 » by cvMagic » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:30 pm

Hotshot Hower wrote:
cvMagic wrote:
Hotshot Hower wrote:+1

The people who hate this trade are not obsessed with a quick fix.
It's the fact that the Magic couldn't get 1 lottery pick or 1 top ten rookie talent for the best big man of his generation.

Gerald Wallace gets traded for a lottery pick. Dwight doesn't.
Couple that with the fact that the cap relief wasn't near as great as we hoped...
And the Magic didn't even get an additional 2013 first round pick in the deal.

If we're all being honest. We all hoped for more. And here's the kicker...
There was no rush to pull this off on August 9th, two months before training camp.
It makes zero sense why the Magic had to settle for this now.

I get that we're all Magic fans and want to hope for the best and see this team succeed... that doesn't mean we have to lie to ourselves as to the quality of this trade.


A lot of you guys focus on what we didn't get in the trade, look at it from such a "literal" perspective.

If Dwight had more years left on his deal the complexity changes, the offers are better. I don't think you understand that. It's one thing to speculate, it's another to argue something you have absolutely no idea about (what Rockets were offering, etc).

In my mind, it's one or the other when it comes to trading someone of Dwight's magnitude who's literally forced his way out of Orlando, while being on the last year of his deal. I'm sure Henny had multiple scenarios when it came to actually acquiring a lotto pick or even a "star", but that's where his options become limited as he couldn't have BOTH. Make no mistake, "rumors" swirled that certain teams would take a chance on Dwight, rent him without assurances but in no way shape or form do we know what these teams were ACTUALLY offering.

Also, everyone is fixated on what "Star" we didn't get, what lotto pick we didn't get. As well as arguing that none of the star players (Iggy/Bynum) in the 4-way deal didn't come to Orlando.

Dwight's departure was inevitable. With that in mind, we could've let him walk and got ZERO in return. Though, we'd be stuck with the toxicity of deals as I mentioned above, crippled financially, and in a mediocre state with few options to turn it around, compete for the Larry O' Brien.

Anyhow, you can't look at it from "did we win or did we lose in trade, talent-wise?" Rather, the BIG picture, not the black and white. The deal we accepted gives us MANY more options now and down the road than a deal for Bynum (or Gasol) would. It gives us flexibility, not just with cap space but in our decision making (trades, draft, FA) as an organization. It's a process, it's about building and developing an identity and sustaining it. The goal for every NBA team is to win a championship, not be eliminated every year in the 1st round, drafting #16-20. With that, you need a mixture of components to achieve that.

That's why Hennigan's plan is to develop these nice prospects (Harkless, Vucevic, Eyenga, Nicholson, O'Quinn) while having good locker room guys/leaders in Jameer, Big Baby, Redick, Affalo. You need a mixture of both to be successful, hence the Spurs blueprint. Then, by the time 2013-2014 season rolls around these prospects are developed, have a role with team, and then Magic capitalize with cap room by signing a "STAR" to add to an already "solid" foundation. I'd like to call it "the cherry on top". That's a recipe for success. Don't put so much stock into these "un-protected" late 1st rounders, they're just assets to HELP facilitate a BIGGER trade down the road as we already have an abundance of youth to develop.

Hypothetically, do you think we could compete for a championship w/ Bynum (or Gasol) and current core? I mean, we already know what we have on our team (w/ exceptions of this year's picks and Ayon). With Miami in East and OKC in West, we don't even come close and Hennigan knows that. He's a realist, a visionary. That's why he took a different route, one that many aren't too fond of but that's because most people are quick to re-act, lack logic and critical thinking.


what are you talking about?
Nowhere in my post did I say I thought the Magic needed an All-star.
I said it's unfathomable that they didn't get a single lottery pick or a rookie drafted in the lottery this past season for him.

Gerald Wallace had zero years remaining on his deal and was traded for a lottery pick. Your argument doesn't make sense.

There isn't a single unbiased analyst in the league who thinks the Magic did well in this trade. Not one. Even the ones who understand the tank method the Magic are applying think this was a rash and terrible deal.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1492 » by cvMagic » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:34 pm

Deezy wrote:I'll never warm up to this trade because it accomplished very little outside of ending the Dwight Howard saga.

Exhibit A -
We added additional salary rather than clearing cap space. Afflalo (4/$31M) and Harrington (3/$14M) replace JRich (3/$18.6M) and Doo-hon (2/$4.75M). Net gain of ~$22M, which $19.5M ($11.5M in '14/'15; $8M in '15/'16) is split between the final two years.

Exhibit B -
The three first round draft picks are designed to land outside of the lottery, which makes it tougher to draft a star ala the OKC model. The GSW second rounder isn't as attractive as it once was; that Warriors team has vastly improved.

Exhibit C -
The young talent leaves a lot to be desired. Vucevic & Harkless look like intriguing prospects, and of course adding Eyenga sure doesn't hurt. But Harkless is the wild card here; if he becomes a star this trade will look much, much better. However, if his ceiling maxes at Trevor Ariza as projected, what makes him much different than, say, Terrance Jones?

At the end of the day it's your prerogative if you choose to justify the move. I definitely won't; not because we traded Howard, but because we accomplished nothing short of igniting the match and waiting for the bomb to detonate in our faces.

Riddle me this: If we let Howard walk and remained status quo, what would our cap situation look like in 2013/2014?

Around $36M with 8 players under contract.

Now after this trade? Try ~$44M with 10 players; 11 and $46M if Eyenga's TO is picked up.

Essentially we ridded ourselves of $7.7M (JRich/Doo-hon) next season and inherited $14.75M (Afflalo/Harrington/Harkless/Vucevic) with potential for almost $17M (Eyenga).

But wait, that $17.8M TPE has to account for something, right? Well, yeah, but we could have dumped Howard to Houston for picks only and received an even bigger TPE. Hell, that might've been a better trade anyway, seeing how the Toronto and Dallas picks are arguably more attractive pieces than what we received.

So, if the purpose of this trade was to salary dump, Hennigan failed. If the purpose was to acquire a plethora of valuable draft picks, Hennigan failed once more. If the purpose was to acquire a prospect like Harkless, why not just trade up for him on draft night when he slipped out of the lottery or simply draft T-Jones? Again, Hennigan failed.

Now, if none of the objectives were met with this trade, what exactly was the purpose? Appeasing Howard?

This is why Orlando is the laughing stock of the league. The net value of this trade is in the negative.


One of the best posts I've read yet.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1493 » by ChosenSavior » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:56 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:IBTL
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Re: Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV 

Post#1494 » by OrlandoMajinBuu » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:13 pm

Hi y'all, nothing new today... in the bask3tball world?

BTW:
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