The Official Paolo Banchero Thread: 2022-2023 NBA Rookie of the Year

[eyriq]

I 100% stand by things I said about him in the pre-draft process...

January 25, 2022: "To be frank, Paolo really has more of a SF statistical profile than a PF, but he's 250 lbs and not wildly explosive."

February 13, 2022: "I think the hope for Banchero is that you start him at PF and he can exploit mismatches offensively to create a lot of points for himself and others to make up for the fact defensively and on the glass he's likely going to be weak."

More from February 13, 2022: "He's a big (6'10" 250) who wants to play more like a wing offensively if that makes sense. Right now he's not a good enough perimeter shooter (31.6% college 3PT) to be a full time 3 in the NBA. He's also not quick enough to defend a lot of wings in space either.

But he's also not long enough or explosive enough to play C full time either.

The three things he does do well...

-Score inside the arc
-Pass
-Get to the line

Basically Banchero really needs his 3PT shooting to develop so he can be his full three-level form offensively because he's not likely to be a plus defender at the 3, 4 or 5 (his best bet is being hidden at the 4 IMO)."

February 27, 2022: "Banchero is much more of a play creator. Offensively he plays more like a wing with his passing and ability to get to spots with his dribble. He's just not really a good enough 3PT shooter right now, nor is he going to be capable of playing the wing full time defensively."

March 25, 2022: "Banchero has too many issues defensively to be considered a true can't miss prospect. It stands to reason he might be an overall negative on that end for a long time (permanently?)

But I generally think he's going to be fine offensively."

April 3, 2022: "I am higher on Banchero than most. I think he has a very intriguing size and skill combo that *should* lead to a lot of points at the next level.

All that said, I do think there's a couple of key flaws he needs to work out to go from being a solid, not overly valuable NBA player to a highly successful, very valuable NBA player.

The first one and the most jarring one is that he just has to figure out how to give more effort defensively. I'm not sure if he tries to conserve energy defensively to have more juice offensively, but far too many defensive possessions he just does nothing. Doesn't help. Doesn't rotate. Doesn't lock into his man 1 on 1 very well. He's just out there and seemingly trying to move around as little as possible.

The second one is the shooting piece. He finished his lone college season 34% from 3PT and 73% from the FT line. Those aren't terrible numbers, but they're not good enough for a guy who is going to use a lot of possessions and probably be a minus defensively.

If he can uptick both his 3PT shot and his FT stroke, the potential exists with his handling and passing for him to be a very good offensive player, but there's no guarantee they will uptick."

April 14, 2022: "It's simple for Banchero, at least for me.

He has to either figure out how to consistently take and make more threes, or he has to defend at a much higher level than he showed at Duke.

If he does neither, he just won't be a very valuable NBA player."

April 20, 2022: "I really do understand the appeal of Banchero's potential. Three level scoring + shot creation for others (regardless of position) is the most valued archetype in the sport.

The problem for me is that Banchero just wasn't *that* good of a scorer.

If you're a forward who is likely going to be a net negative defensively and not provide all that much value as a rebounder either, then you have to be a really good scorer to counterbalance it.

Banchero could maybe become a great scorer, but there seems to be enough limitations there to where he may end up settling in as a pretty good scorer which would limit his overall value significantly."

Awful lot of caveats and pathways to mediocrity in there. Otherwise it seems you had a good feel for him as a prospect.

[Knightro]

Awful lot of caveats and pathways to mediocrity in there. Otherwise it seems you had a good feel for him as a prospect.

I mean it all still applies.

He needs to improve his 3PT shot or improve his hustle/defense/rebounding to really be a big star.

The shooting seems more likely to improve than the other piece, at least for me.

[KillMonger]

Awful lot of caveats and pathways to mediocrity in there. Otherwise it seems you had a good feel for him as a prospect.

I mean it all still applies.

He needs to improve his 3PT shot or improve his hustle/defense/rebounding to really be a big star.

The shooting seems more likely to improve than the other piece, at least for me.

He's really a big sf... I think he's averaging 7 rebounds? That's not bad to me....he'll be fine and he's shown flashes on the defensive end and honestly that's all he needs to show in year 1...time will tell

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[drsd]

When/if Banchero wins this 4 in a row, does that make him the greatest ever "LOCK" to win the rookie of the year award?

[ORLMagicGirl15]

When/if Banchero wins this 4 in a row, does that make him the greatest ever "LOCK" to win the rookie of the year award?

Giddy won it every month last year and still didn’t win ROTY. Other rookies are stepping up and can challenge him for the award.

[Ralof]

Awful lot of caveats and pathways to mediocrity in there. Otherwise it seems you had a good feel for him as a prospect.

I mean it all still applies.

He needs to improve his 3PT shot or improve his hustle/defense/rebounding to really be a big star.

The shooting seems more likely to improve than the other piece, at least for me.

defence is not a problem,don't think anyone would ask him to be an elite defender,just to do enough and he already showed flashes of rim protection and to understand the game.

shooting need to improve,sure,but can not be his go-to-go skill imho.

a 6-10 that big,if wants to play as a forward has to take advantage in post of smaller guys.
also cause he's better skill is to get free throws and be efective near the basket.

nba players usually get bigger in 2-3 years,at some point you have to udnerstand, can not play like durant if you have a total diffrent body type.

[Knightro]

defence is not a problem,don't think anyone would ask him to be an elite defender,just to do enough and he already showed flashes of rim protection and to understand the game.

shooting need to improve,sure,but can not be his go-to-go skill imho.

a 6-10 that big,if wants to play as a forward has to take advantage in post of smaller guys.
also cause he's better skill is to get free throws and be efective near the basket.

nba players usually get bigger in 2-3 years,at some point you have to udnerstand, can not play like durant if you have a total diffrent body type.

He’s very young so I’m not going to blast him over it too badly right now, but defense clearly is a problem for Paolo currently.

I think Paolo has the ability to be a multi-time all-star, but it’s going to come from his offense.

He’s too soft to capably defend bigs and too slow laterally (and too low motor candidly) to chase wings that move a lot off the ball.

He’s a one position defender right now.

[HayKee]

When/if Banchero wins this 4 in a row, does that make him the greatest ever "LOCK" to win the rookie of the year award?

Bookies have him at -5000 to win, which is pretty insane. There have probably been others that have been big favourites, but Banchero has been a comfortable favourite virtually all season.

[tooler]

I thought there was still a chance for him to lose it because voters have recency bias. But they're also clueless and vote by storyline. Plus he's stabilized his performance after that terrible 3 point shooting in February.

In any case, the award is the least important thing about this season.

[drsd]

I thought there was still a chance for him to lose it because voters have recency bias. But they're also clueless and vote by storyline. Plus he's stabilized his performance after that terrible 3 point shooting in February.

In any case, the award is the least important thing about this season.

And-1

Not sure about "least important", but certainly it is not the most important.

1) Stabilising the roster

2) Learning to win

Orlando has made huge progressions on both of these fronts. We have learned that this current roster is a solidly mediocre team that can consistently win at 50%. I am very pleased with the outcome of the season, which has exceed my expectations.

.

[pepe1991]

Keegan Murray is only rookie among top 10 rookie scorers who isn't net negative and with positive +/-.
Close second is Jalen Williams who looks to be biggest draft steal with Kessler.

Mathurin is hurt, only 13 games left, Pacers don't seem to be too interested into anything but keeping 6th worst record, so i assume ROY "race" is over.

For years ROY has been same crap as 6th men award. Basically whoever scores most points wins.

[Def Swami]

Keegan Murray is only rookie among top 10 rookie scorers who isn't net negative and with positive +/-.
Close second is Jalen Williams who looks to be biggest draft steal with Kessler.

Mathurin is hurt, only 13 games left, Pacers don't seem to be too interested into anything but keeping 6th worst record, so i assume ROY "race" is over.

For years ROY has been same crap as 6th men award. Basically whoever scores most points wins.

Is this a "Keegan Murray should be ROY take?" in an Orlando Magic forum

[Knightro]

For years ROY has been same crap as 6th men award. Basically whoever scores most points wins.

You know, I assumed this as well, but it actually has not been the case recently at all. Only one time in the last six years has the leading rookie scorer actually won Rookie of the Year.

2017: Embiid leading scorer, Brogdon wins ROY (Brogdon 4th scorer behind Embiid, Saric, Hield)
2018 Mitchell leading scorer, Ben Simmons wins ROY (Simmons 3rd scorer behind Mitchell and Kuzma)
2019: Doncic leading scorer, Doncic wins ROY
2020 Zion leading scorer, Morant wins ROY (Morant 2nd scorer to Zion)
2021: Edwards leading scorer, Ball wins ROY (Ball 2nd scorer to Edwards)
2022: Cunningham leading scorer, Barnes wins ROY (Barnes 3rd scorer behind Cade, Green)

[pepe1991]

Keegan Murray is only rookie among top 10 rookie scorers who isn't net negative and with positive +/-.
Close second is Jalen Williams who looks to be biggest draft steal with Kessler.

Mathurin is hurt, only 13 games left, Pacers don't seem to be too interested into anything but keeping 6th worst record, so i assume ROY "race" is over.

For years ROY has been same crap as 6th men award. Basically whoever scores most points wins.

Is this a "Keegan Murray should be ROY take?" in an Orlando Magic forum

Nop, it's observation.

This draft class didn't really live up to it's hype in year one.
Paolo has been high usage below average efficency guy. Imo he is way overused ( 28% usage rate as a rookie on 34 mpg is massive).
Ivey fills stat sheet but with huge negative impact when he plays.
Mathurin is somewhere between Paolo and Ivey.

Kessler is apsolute steal given he was non lottery pick.
Jaden Williams looks like legit top 4-5 talent in this draft, drafted 12th, that's amazing value.

Jabari Smith is massive dud.

Holmgren not playing is dissapointing.

As for ROY goes, it would be interesting study what would have happened if Detroit and Pistons went all in for Ivey and Mathurin to win ROY and just forcefed them into 20 ppg.
Last year proved that clueless voting and popularity is way more important than anything tengable to win ROY.

Scottie Barnes averaged 0,3 ppg and 1 apg more than Mobley, every data under a sun showed that Mobley is way more impactful player ,and ofc, they gave it to Barnes. Because...reasons and bigger market?

[pepe1991]

For years ROY has been same crap as 6th men award. Basically whoever scores most points wins.

You know, I assumed this as well, but it actually has not been the case recently at all. Only one time in the last six years has the leading rookie scorer actually won Rookie of the Year.

2017: Embiid leading scorer, Brogdon wins ROY (Brogdon 4th scorer behind Embiid, Saric, Hield)
2018 Mitchell leading scorer, Ben Simmons wins ROY (Simmons 3rd scorer behind Mitchell and Kuzma)
2019: Doncic leading scorer, Doncic wins ROY
2020 Zion leading scorer, Morant wins ROY (Morant 2nd scorer to Zion)
2021: Edwards leading scorer, Ball wins ROY (Ball 2nd scorer to Edwards)
2022: Cunningham leading scorer, Barnes wins ROY (Barnes 3rd scorer behind Cade, Green)

Zion played very few games to win. That was case with Embiid in 2017 as well.



2016- Towns won as leading scorer
2015- Wiggins won as leading scorer
2014- MCW won as leading scorer
2013- Lillard- leading scorer
2012- Irving- leading scorer


I think major part of voting is simply popularity and fact that some people who vote, are so painfully awful when it comes to basketball knowledge. There is youtube channel (basketball examined) who exposed some of worst voters in previous years ( for example there were two voters in 2017-18 who voted Westbrook and Towns in all nba defensive first team, Lillard and Batum in second and just "forgot" Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Holiday , Chris Paul or Butler...

Richard Walker, guy who had vote in all nba awards, voted for Gobert for DPOY , but also didn't vote Gobert in his first defensive team...because... Logic doesn't apply to him?
Other voter, LIsa Sheng Yang, voted for Gobert to win DPOY, but didn't have him in any of two all nba defenensive teams ...because she had ...drumroll... Dwight Howard in all nba first team.

There was one voter, also in 2017-18 ( since i used that video as reference) who gave Lamarcus Aldrige DPOY 3rd place...but once again, forgot him in all nba defensive teams


Chris Webber refused to put Durant on his all nba teams list because he didn't play enough games, according to him. But he voted 4 different players in all nba teams who played lesss games than Durant.


In 2016-17 several very popular people ( Jalen Rose, Chris Beucher to name few) had Kawhi Leonard 3rd in MVP race but not in first all nba teams because of Durant and Lebron, who they didn't have in MVP votes.

So it's not hard to figure whole awards thing is painfully bad , flawed, illogical and people who have votes are so bad, so careless that whole awards look worst and more pointless each and every year because there is no objective critera to the point where voters break their own illogical logic.

[Skybox]

Awful lot of caveats and pathways to mediocrity in there. Otherwise it seems you had a good feel for him as a prospect.

I mean it all still applies.

He needs to improve his 3PT shot or improve his hustle/defense/rebounding to really be a big star.

The shooting seems more likely to improve than the other piece, at least for me.

He's really a big sf... I think he's averaging 7 rebounds? That's not bad to me....he'll be fine and he's shown flashes on the defensive end and honestly that's all he needs to show in year 1...time will tell

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This is kind of a big point for me...Franz and PB both play that way, which is an awesome foundation to build upon...but I wonder if WCJ (who is a fantastic player) isn't the right Center for them. Having said that, if we got a big rim-protecting, DOMINANT rebounding C, WCJ could back up 4/5 and still get a lot minutes in different looking lineups/matchups. WCJ gets decent rebounding stats, but he's just not the immovable force in the paint to support our two big wings, IMO....just a thought.

[Knightro]

Zion played very few games to win. That was case with Embiid in 2017 as well.

So even if we throw out Zion, the leading PPG rookie has not won the Rookie of the Year award in four of the last six years.

But you still want to argue the ROY is a pure PPG award because that's what it used to be?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[KillMonger]

I mean it all still applies.

He needs to improve his 3PT shot or improve his hustle/defense/rebounding to really be a big star.

The shooting seems more likely to improve than the other piece, at least for me.

He's really a big sf... I think he's averaging 7 rebounds? That's not bad to me....he'll be fine and he's shown flashes on the defensive end and honestly that's all he needs to show in year 1...time will tell

Sent from my Pixel 7 using RealGM mobile app

This is kind of a big point for me...Franz and PB both play that way, which is an awesome foundation to build upon...but I wonder if WCJ (who is a fantastic player) isn't the right Center for them. Having said that, if we got a big rim-protecting, DOMINANT rebounding C, WCJ could back up 4/5 and still get a lot minutes in different looking lineups/matchups. WCJ gets decent rebounding stats, but he's just not the immovable force in the paint to support our two big wings, IMO....just a thought.

I agree with you, even with your concerns about Dell.... I also think that a more defensive/rebounding center would be perfect next to Franz and P5 but I can't really complain that much with Dell playing well for the Most part. I think paolo will get better on the boards when he gets stronger and learns how to use his body better..... I remember coach mose saying in training camp that paolo doesn't even really know how to use his body yet, which makes a lot of sense when you see him play.... Sometimes he plays smaller than his actual size.... He'll learn

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[eyriq]

I personally think ROY is very important for the narrative. He wants to be the best, psychological edge

[pepe1991]

Zion played very few games to win. That was case with Embiid in 2017 as well.

So even if we throw out Zion, the leading PPG rookie has not won the Rookie of the Year award in four of the last six years.

But you still want to argue the ROY is a pure PPG award because that's what it used to be?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Zion and Embiid... Embiid played 31 games.

From 2010 to 2022, leading scorers won 9 out of 13 times i think

( btw 07,08,09 as well, i got tired looking for more, i think you would have to go back in 2003 to find out who was first non-leading scorer who won ROY, Lebron over Melo for 0,2 points differential). So i guess my orginal argument holds well because leading scorers won 17 out of last 22 times.