Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

rusoopE · Post #1521 » by **rusoopE** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 1:48 am

Viper1500 wrote:A win here from SAC would almost guarantee no worse than 6th.

Yaay sac playing great on both ends!

OrlandoDream · Post #1522 » by **OrlandoDream** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 2:02 am

If you wanna talk disappointment of the season, look no further then the wolves. Two #1 overall picks and a great coach like Thibs and they are getting spanked by a team of nobodies. Why doesn't the media criticize them more?

Gomagic44 · Post #1523 » by **Gomagic44** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 2:06 am

OrlandoDream wrote:If you wanna talk disappointment of the season, look no further then the wolves. Two #1 overall picks and a great coach like Thibs and they are getting spanked by a team of nobodies. Why doesn't the media criticize them more?

Indeed. The general board thought they were playoff bound!

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JF5 · Post #1524 » by **JF5** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 2:37 am

Well the Magic have clinched at least top six status with the Kings victory.

Good day today...

The Other Ankle · Post #1525 » by **The Other Ankle** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 3:04 am

With Sac at 30 wins, we're only jousting with Philly at 28 and New York at 29 wins. Our Tankalicious 27- win record is looking pretty good for fourth worst outright!

Philly plays Toronto tomorrow and then plays their last 5 games on the exact same 5 nights as us -- and three of the games are against the same teams: CHI, Brooklyn, and Indiana.

Four of Philly's last five are at home and they wrap up in New York on the final night when we play Detroit. That last game will be a forced win for one of them no matter how outrageously they try to tank!

The sequence has me feeling pretty good. Philly's schedule is easier at this point. And Indiana may be in melt down mode if they are locked out of the playoffs when the play the 76ers.

Best case scenario would be if we are locked in to 4th by virtue of a two game cushion when we play Detroit. They have been awful for a month and it would be nice to go out with a win while still maximizing our draft position.

mr2good · Post #1526 » by **mr2good** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 4:28 am

The Other Ankle wrote:With Sac at 30 wins, we're only jousting with Philly at 28 and New York at 29 wins. Our Tankalicious 27- win record is looking pretty good for fourth worst outright!

Philly plays Toronto tomorrow and then plays their last 5 games on the exact same 5 nights as us -- and three of the games are against the same teams: CHI, Brooklyn, and Indiana.

Four of Philly's last five are at home and they wrap up in New York on the final night when we play Detroit. That last game will be a forced win for one of them no matter how outrageously they try to tank!

The sequence has me feeling pretty good. Philly's schedule is easier at this point. And Indiana may be in melt down mode if they are locked out of the playoffs when the play the 76ers.

Best case scenario would be if we are locked in to 4th by virtue of a two game cushion when we play Detroit. They have been awful for a month and it would be nice to go out with a win while still maximizing our draft position.

I freaking love that Philly plays the Knicks for their last game of the season. That forced win for one of them could literally be a game changer for us.

Skin · Post #1527 » by **Skin** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 5:09 am

Thank you Magic.

Skin · Post #1528 » by **Skin** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 5:16 am

Last 2 games from Aaron have been dream fulfilling. This is what we need night in and night out.

Post #1529 » by **Def Swami** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 5:57 am

Huge win for the tank today.

Big A All Day · Post #1530 » by **Big A All Day** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 6:08 am

Great tank day for us!

drsd · Post #1531 » by **drsd** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 8:47 am

1) The magic number for Orlando to be outside the top-3 in losses is now 1 game. (One loss by Phoenix or 1 win by Orlando ensures the Suns is at least the 3rd worse team.

2) Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than the Sixers and 2 1/2 worse than the Knicks.

3) The magic number for Orlando to be worse than the Kings is now 2 games.

--> Orlando is essentially certain to set 4-6 in the lottery with 4 or 5 being the most probable. There is a significant difference in being 4 vs 5 to get a top-3 pick (37.8% vs. 29.2%). The most probable outcome of the 4th worst team is to draft 5 and the 5th worst to draft 6.

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shadrock · Post #1532 » by **shadrock** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 10:27 am

OrlandoDream wrote:If you wanna talk disappointment of the season, look no further then the wolves. Two #1 overall picks and a great coach like Thibs and they are getting spanked by a team of nobodies. Why doesn't the media criticize them more?

Young players dont win right away. Its not a surprise they arent winning.

They are 2 years away, as are we. No need to sound the alarms just yet.

Truth24 · Post #1533 » by **Truth24** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 3:26 pm

Skin wrote:Last 2 games from Aaron have been dream fulfilling. This is what we need night in and night out.

Exactly, the way he has been playing post asb has given the light of hope we wanted.

npiper17 · Post #1534 » by **npiper17** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 5:46 pm

Let's not forget that even with all the hand wringing / Skiles' quitting on the team, the rebuild was technically (record-wise at least) progressing in a linear fashion prior to the 2016 offseason moves and this season.

Melvinlocker · Post #1535 » by **Melvinlocker** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 5:54 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:
Melvinlocker wrote:I get all of the Lonzo concern, but I'm not sure why everyone is hyper focused on the kid. I think he will turn out to be a solid pro, but nothing spectacular. There is so much talent at the top of this draft that is arguably better than him.

I'd much rather take my chances with one of Fultz, Smith Jr. or Josh Jackson if they are on the board. If they are off the board, we can begin to look at the next tier consisting of Ball, Tatum and Isaac.

Smith Jr. is a tier below Ball, Tatum and Isaac...

I disagree, but I'm willing to hear your take on it.

drsd · Post #1536 » by **drsd** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 7:28 pm

Lakers and Suns tied in the loss column. LAL has 4 home games and 2 road games, with about 2 winnable games on their schedule. Phoenix has 4 home games and 1 road game with 1-maybe-2 winnable games.

The 2nd and the 3rd worst teams both have similar chances to fall out of the top-3 in the lottery. But every little lottery ball helps.

If LAL finishes 3rd and Orlando 4th, here is hoping the Magic keep over as a win-win. Then a sickly gut decision to draft Tatum or Jackson at 3.

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OrlandoMagic · Post #1537 » by **OrlandoMagic** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 7:38 pm

If we are in the top 3 my pick would be Jackson. Outside of top three I would just run with Isaac.

Nemesis21 · Post #1538 » by **Nemesis21** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 8:41 pm

Knicks shut down Rose in their efforts in the tank.

shadrock · Post #1539 » by **shadrock** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 10:05 pm

Nemesis21 wrote:Knicks shut down Rose in their efforts in the tank.

Yeah and now they might actually win games...

LAKERS WINNNNNNN!!!!!

OrlandoDream · Post #1540 » by **OrlandoDream** » Sun Apr 2, 2017 10:21 pm

Lakers drop and will finish with the 3rd best odds which puts them at a higher chance to drop to the 4th or 5th spot. They have some winnable games left where PHX has a brutal schedule. They prob won't win another game.