Official Speculation & Free Agency Thread (PtXI, Mods close)

[Noonskadoodle]

The possibilty of aqcuiring Monta is def there, Otis just has to be on his game and go for it.

[The Real Dalic]

Yup and the only SEMI REALISTIC centers we could try to get them would be Kaman, Darko (because the way Pekovic has been playing), Varejao (would have to get the cavs young talent or draft picks back because they are extremely high on Andy), or Al Jefferson.

Al Jeff may no longer be on the block with the way the Jazz are playing.

[Noonskadoodle]

Just trying to think of some kind of idea hahaha

Magic trade Meer, Q, JRich, Orton, & Ryno
Magic receive Monta & Biedrins

Warriors trade Monta, Biedrins, & Udoh
Warriors receive Ryno, JRich, Kaman, & Belinelli

Hornets trade Kaman & Belinelli
Hornets receive Meer, Q, Orton, & Udoh

Plus picks going where every they need to go hahaha

[arkknight1988]

The possibilty of aqcuiring Monta is def there, Otis just has to be on his game and go for it.

yeah but i'm sure it would involve anderson. my dream trade would be jj davis and 2 1st for monta straight up but that wouldn't get it done imo.

monta/jrich/turk/anderson/d12

jameer can be a great 6th man and play with ellis for stretches and wafer moves into the backup sg role.

[Noonskadoodle]

Would leave us with

Monta/Ish/DuDu
JJ/Wafer/Liggins
Turk/Clark
BBD/Harper
Dwight/Biedrins

Not a fan of gutting our team just for Monta but if it keeps Dwight in Orlando than we have to hahaha

Maybe we could somehow by some miracle trade Hedo for the disgruntled S Jax like some previously said, but really doubt MIL wants Hedos contract.

[Noonskadoodle]

The possibilty of aqcuiring Monta is def there, Otis just has to be on his game and go for it.

yeah but i'm sure it would involve anderson. my dream trade would be jj davis and 2 1st for monta straight up but that wouldn't get it done imo.

monta/jrich/turk/anderson/d12

jameer can be a great 6th man and play with ellis for stretches and wafer moves into the backup sg role.

Yea I think we would all love to just give that up in a trade but I have a feeling we will have to bend over backwards to acquire Monta. The NBA is not ready for a Monta/Superman PnR & they will make us give up everything for him hahahaha.

I also have a feeling Turk will disappear COMPLETELY with Monta on the floor. So if we could do a SJax/Hedo swap you gotta pull the trigger, because now that I look at it their contracts are awfully similar except for Hedos player option.

[ADRajX]

With that Thompson kid playing well for GS... it's making it more and more likely that Ellis will be replaceable/expendable

[Reverse_Angle]

The possibilty of aqcuiring Monta is def there, Otis just has to be on his game and go for it.

yeah but i'm sure it would involve anderson. my dream trade would be jj davis and 2 1st for monta straight up but that wouldn't get it done imo.

monta/jrich/turk/anderson/d12

jameer can be a great 6th man and play with ellis for stretches and wafer moves into the backup sg role.

Yea I think we would all love to just give that up in a trade but I have a feeling we will have to bend over backwards to acquire Monta. The NBA is not ready for a Monta/Superman PnR & they will make us give up everything for him hahahaha.

I also have a feeling Turk will disappear COMPLETELY with Monta on the floor. So if we could do a SJax/Hedo swap you gotta pull the trigger, because now that I look at it their contracts are awfully similar except for Hedos player option.

turk will disappear because unlike jameer, monta is known for being a true pass first pg who makes plays for others.

we could be able to start a combo guard at 1 solely because we got Hedo. we are to be trading for a guy who doesnt play winning basketball for one reason only; have him score 40 points when nothing else is going in.

[WeAreVenom]

Chris Broussard @Chris_Broussard
Brandon Jennings told me today he'll strongly consider leaving Bucks for big market team - ESPN es.pn/Ah4JqY

lol

I wonder if this has to do with him not making the ASG?

[Nyce_1]

what if scenario:

What if we have a chance to aquire JR Smith for the rest of our MLE? how do you think he'll look next to Monta on our roster or plugged in next to Jameer?

[MagicFan149]

jr smith would def give the magic a big scoring punch, headcase or not..... dont know how great he and monta would be together...but jr would be a big plus on our current team... rest of mle? i thought we still had the whole thing?.... jr could get mins at the 2 and the 3 for us....

[cedric76]

Jr is d12 s good buddy too

[Nyce_1]

jr smith would def give the magic a big scoring punch, headcase or not..... dont know how great he and monta would be together...but jr would be a big plus on our current team... rest of mle? i thought we still had the whole thing?.... jr could get mins at the 2 and the 3 for us....

We spent about a million of the MLE for Earl Clark. Roughly $4M left. JR Smith's camp says he wants money and playing time. Of the teams interested in him, (i think Clips & Knicks) we have the most money to offer him, but they both have a starting position for him. Now, if we can or have to get rid of any of our SG assets, we can make a strong run for JR Smith.

If we can land Monta & JR, that'll give us the most athletic backcourt Dwight has had.

[MagicFan149]

well IF we were to get monta one of our sg's will most likely go i would think...so there are some mins at the 2 along with mins behind turk... im thinking the guy is about money...look he went to china because he couldnt risk there not being a nba season... no matter what the magic need another consistent scorer...

[Def Swami]

Kyler insinuates the Magic FO doesn't know how the new CBA works.

Setting It Straight On Dwight: Yesterday in my chat I made a comment about Dwight Howard and his contract options, which may not have been entirely accurate.

After getting some heat from fans, I reached out to our CBA guru Larry Coon, to make sure the information was accurate.

Here is what you need to know about Dwight Howard and his pending contract situation, because no one, including the Orlando Magic, has the details entirely right.

High level Magic sources have been telling reporters that in order for Dwight Howard to get his full value that he needed to be traded by January 1st. That’s not entirely true.

“He needed to be traded by January 1 (actually December 30) in order to EXTEND with his new team (because the new CBA prohibits extensions within 6 months of a trade if the extension gives him more than he could have received in an extend-and-trade — i.e., 3 total years, 4.5% raises). But Howard was never going to extend anyway. The most he could get in an extension is 4 years, which includes current years on his contract. And even if he extends on June 30, the current season counts as one full year. That means an extension could add two new seasons only (on top of this season and next season, where his ETO would be voided).

If he’s EXTENDED he’s losing guaranteed money. So he’s not going to extend — he’s going to become a free agent. Therefore the January 1 deadline was meaningless.”

It’s been said in Magic circles that the only team that can give Dwight the most money is Orlando, again, not entirely true.

“He could be traded on March 15, and his new team would inherit his Bird rights. If he opts out, the he could sign with that team for the maximum contract — 5 years, 7.5% raises — just the same as he could with Orlando if he’s not traded. This is obviously what Dwight wants to do — get traded to the team he wants to be with long-term, opt-out, and re-sign with them. He gets the best contract, AND the team of his choice.”

It’s also been said that Orlando is the only team that Dwight could do a five-year deal with, again not entirely true.

THE TEAM HE FINISHES THE SEASON WITH can do a five year deal, and everyone else can do a four year deal.

So what are the real scenarios for Dwight Howard?

So this really comes down to the following comparison (in Dwight’s head). If Orlando doesn’t trade him, should he:

A) Re-sign with Orlando because he can get a five year deal and 7.5% raises; or

B) Sign with the team of his choice (eg: NJ or Dallas) for a four year deal and 4.5% raises.

So it’s a matter of choosing between the team and the money. But how much money? Let’s look at the years first.

People like to say “he’s giving up $20 million,” but that’s not accurate. That’s because they’re comparing a four year contract to a five year contract. The comparison is only valid if this is the last contract he’s ever going to sign. Unless something catastrophic happens, he’s going to sign another contract or extension eventually, so he’ll eventually get paid for that fifth year.

What we’re really talking about is locking in that money now, as protection against a catastrophic injury in the next three years that would prevent him from signing that next contract. I don’t think he chooses his teams on the basis of what amounts to an insurance policy.

The other factor is the raises. Let’s compare apples to apples — a four year deal in either case. With 7.5% raises he gets $84,533,793 over four years (his starting salary is $18,996,358 whether he re-signs or changes teams). With 4.5% raises it’s $81,114,449 over four years — a difference of $3,419,344 over four years, or an average of about $855K per year.

So the REAL question is, which choice does Dwight make:

A) Re-sign with Orlando to get an extra $855K per year and insurance for that fifth year; or

B) Sign with the team of his choice for $855K less per year, and waiting 3 years for the opportunity to lock in the salary for year 5.

Can the Magic really call Dwight’s Bluff?

“It used to be that the home team had the advantage even if the player wanted to go to a different team, because they could utilize a sign-and-trade to give the player the best contract, and still get something in return for their departing player. But the new CBA nearly eliminated this advantage. Now with a sign-and-trade, the player can only get four years and 4.5% raises — the same contract he can get by signing with that team directly. If the team has the cap room to sign him, then there is no reason for Dwight to go to Orlando to get a sign-and-trade.

The only time a sign-and-trade is needed is if Dwight wants to go to a team that doesn’t have the cap room to offer him the contract he wants. For instance, if he wants to go to the Lakers this summer, the only way he can get there is by signing for the mid-level, or through a sign-and-trade. But we already know he has NJ and Dallas on his list and both of those teams will have sufficient cap room.

If Orlando knew that none of Dwight’s preferred teams will have cap room, then maybe they can call his bluff and say, “Fine, leave on your own, because unless you want to play in someplace like Indiana, you’ll need us this summer.” But we already know that two of Dwight’s preferred teams will have cap room. In other words, THERE IS NO BLUFF to call.”

The moral of this story is that not every team understands how things work, and it’s becoming clear that the Orlando Magic may not have as firm a grasp on their situation as they believe.

Either that or they are deliberately putting out false information which wouldn’t be a stretch either.

One thing is clear, in NBA money $3,419,344 over four years isn’t much of a deterrent, especially if its moving from Orlando to the top media market in the world.

[Driguez]

I have been losing respect for Kyler over the last couple of weeks. He's been putting out garbage. BTW he was the one who didn't know how the CBA works, how could anyone think an NBA franchise don't have people who know the ins and outs of the CBA is beyond me.

[BelgianMagic]

I have been losing respect for Kyler over the last couple of weeks. He's been putting out garbage. BTW he was the one who didn't know how the CBA works, how could anyone think an NBA franchise don't have people who know the ins and outs of the CBA is beyond me.

+1

Even Otis "Overpay" Smith most likely knows how the CBA works ..

[Def Swami]

As much as I agree about Kyler's declining credibility, he does credit most of the piece to Larry Coon, the salaray cap guy over at Hoopsworld, and he raises a good point. If what they're saying is true about the numbers, Dwight isn't going to choose where he plays over $855k. That $30 million hair cut Otis talks about may be a bit misleading.

[rcklsscognition]

Larry Coon is also ESPN's salary cap guru, so I'll believe what he says. The biggest question is whether our FO is just putting out false info or if they just don't have a clue. I have asked Larry numerous times, as I'm sure others have too, to clarify the muddy rules about signing and trading and letting Dwight walk and he said he was going to contact the league office and find out. Looks like he did.

[MoMM]

Well, add to this 3mi the taxes he wouldnt pay in Orlando.