Orlando Magic Free Agency Guide (Cap Info UPDATED page 37)

[ezzzp]

Starting to hit me how real a possibility it is for Conley to leave the Grizzlies. Gasol is out the season with a broken foot and will only continue to age. Randolph has already declined. The rest of the team is lackluster with no future in sight. The Grizzlies are kinda just drifting in mediocrity. There are several teams in the East that Conley could join that would offer a brighter next 5 years for him, mostly the Celtics and us. The Knicks should go after him, but I just don't see the fit unless they get Horford or Barnes to join as well. After KD, I think he's the biggest fish on the market this off-season. Always loved his game and his 2015 playoff performance with the broken face is unforgettable for me. Would fit our culture well and provide much needed veteran leadership.

Yea its not looking good for Gasol and Memphis...Gasol is 31, does Conley risk his prime and best shot at a title for friendship? maybe its going to be a tough call...though Memphis can also pay him the most.

While the Grizzlies remain publicly optimistic that Gasol will make a full recovery and be ready for the start of the 2016/17 season, a physical therapist who is well-versed in the recovery process the big man will undergo told Peter Edmiston of The Commercial Appeal that there is less than a 10% chance that the Spaniard will return to his pre-injury form. Only time will tell if Gasol will be the player we are used to seeing when he makes his way back, but this offseason will likely be Conley’s last chance at a significant long-term payday. He may decide that risking his last remaining peak seasons on the durability of Gasol’s right foot isn’t the smart play and bolt for what he perceives to be greener pastures.

[ezzzp]

I think Boston can out-do us on almost every front. Feel like they're more likely to end up with 2 of Conley, Horford, and Barnes. The appeal of playing for an established playoff team full of young players and a coach who seems to get the most out of his team. And there's the lore of playing for a historically great franchise. Feel like that sounds more appealing to free agents than our pitch. Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I don't think they are really competition. They can only offer one max and do not need a PG or a SF (unless its Durant):

Boston Celtics

Key Rotation:
Thomas | Bradley | Crowder | Johnson | Sullinger
Smart | Turner | Jerebko | Olynick

• Unrestricted Free Agent:
E Turner (5.1m cap hold)
• Restricted Free Agents:
J Sullinger (8.9m cap hold / T Zeller(7.4m cap hold)
• Team Options:
A Johnson (12m or 18m cap hold) / J Jerebko (5m or 7.5m cap hold)

Boston has $51m in guaranteed salary, so they will have a maximum of $41 million in cap space. But to have that full amount they would need to waive and renounce all their free agents and team options.

Max salary contracts are Jr: $23.0m, Mid-Tier $27.6m and Vet $32.2m. So really - Boston only has enough to offer one maximum salary contract.

Because of who their free agents / team options are Boston looks like they would be looking for a SG or a PF or a Center.

***Jae Crowder (SF) was just signed to a great value contract and he is playing well. I doubt they chase Harrison Barnes.
***Isaah Thomas (PG) is an all-star. I find it hard to imagine they chase Conley because of that.

To add Al Horford, who is eligible for the Mid Tier max, Boston would have to renounce all but $13.4m of all their free agents / team options. That means they would have to waive either Amir Johnson or Jared Sullinger...plus a combination of others to attain Horford.

[cedric76]

When/if we miss on on kd, you stay calm and don't overpay anyone

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[ralphie9898]

What do suggest? Draft or free agency?

has to be a mixture of both in my opinion. As much as i was a proponent of Elf, we need an upgrade at PG. If the draft provides that, great. If Hennigan thinks to go after say Conley and then look at PF in the draft, so be it. But we have got to augment our post defense somehow. And that also means they have to decide where Gordon stays, at PF or SF. I also think 1 of Dipo/Fournier needs to be moved.

There are a lot of pf s in the draft. I like brice johnson, ivan rabb, damian jones, henry ellenson, ben bentil

Brice Johnson is more of a second rounder.
Rabb is a late lottery pick that may be an option
Jones is more of a center who has been falling and is more in the second round
Henry Ellenson is high lottery pick that is currently out of our range
Bentil is a second rounder right now as well

Right now if we want a big at PF it is between Rabb, Marques Chriss of Washington, Chiek Diallo who is falling, or Deyonta Davis of Michigan State or at center we have Skal Labissiere who is falling, Jacob Poeltl, Ante Zizic out of Croatia, Jonathan Jeanne from France and Thomas Bryant out of Indiana. But I also would say we could trade the pick or we could not even select a big but rather look for a shooter at PG, SG or SF. But there are still way to many questions to be answered. College and Foreign players are still rising and falling as we have a lot of their season left as well as pre draft workouts and such. We don't even know where we will end up in the standings. Do we sneak into the playoffs? Do we stay at 11 or do we lose more and more and sink more and more down to the bottom. Plus we have the lottery which could shake things up. Plus we have free agency which we seem to be positioning ourselves by the recent trades to have more money to make a big splash fore one or even two big names. Yeah it is only 4 months away but still so much still has to be decided.

[ralphie9898]

So which teams are our biggest competition for free agents this year? I think Boston can out-do us on almost every front. Feel like they're more likely to end up with 2 of Conley, Horford, and Barnes. The appeal of playing for an established playoff team full of young players and a coach who seems to get the most out of his team. And there's the lore of playing for a historically great franchise. Feel like that sounds more appealing to free agents than our pitch.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Well most of the league is competition. This has to be one of the worst years to have cap space as there are even good teams like Golden State that will have money. The rise in this cap as well as the following year will leave a lot of room for a lot of teams to add to their roster.

[Patrick1978]

has to be a mixture of both in my opinion. As much as i was a proponent of Elf, we need an upgrade at PG. If the draft provides that, great. If Hennigan thinks to go after say Conley and then look at PF in the draft, so be it. But we have got to augment our post defense somehow. And that also means they have to decide where Gordon stays, at PF or SF. I also think 1 of Dipo/Fournier needs to be moved.

There are a lot of pf s in the draft. I like brice johnson, ivan rabb, damian jones, henry ellenson, ben bentil

Brice Johnson is more of a second rounder.
Rabb is a late lottery pick that may be an option
Jones is more of a center who has been falling and is more in the second round
Henry Ellenson is high lottery pick that is currently out of our range
Bentil is a second rounder right now as well

Right now if we want a big at PF it is between Rabb, Marques Chriss of Washington, Chiek Diallo who is falling, or Deyonta Davis of Michigan State or at center we have Skal Labissiere who is falling, Jacob Poeltl, Ante Zizic out of Croatia, Jonathan Jeanne from France and Thomas Bryant out of Indiana. But I also would say we could trade the pick or we could not even select a big but rather look for a shooter at PG, SG or SF. But there are still way to many questions to be answered. College and Foreign players are still rising and falling as we have a lot of their season left as well as pre draft workouts and such. We don't even know where we will end up in the standings. Do we sneak into the playoffs? Do we stay at 11 or do we lose more and more and sink more and more down to the bottom. Plus we have the lottery which could shake things up. Plus we have free agency which we seem to be positioning ourselves by the recent trades to have more money to make a big splash fore one or even two big names. Yeah it is only 4 months away but still so much still has to be decided.

Don t know much about marques chriss and Thomas bryant, are they good?

[Patrick1978]

https://youtu.be/3OV5JGP5feU

Interesting player

[Def Swami]

I think Boston can out-do us on almost every front. Feel like they're more likely to end up with 2 of Conley, Horford, and Barnes. The appeal of playing for an established playoff team full of young players and a coach who seems to get the most out of his team. And there's the lore of playing for a historically great franchise. Feel like that sounds more appealing to free agents than our pitch. Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I don't think they are really competition. They can only offer one max and do not need a PG or a SF (unless its Durant):

Boston Celtics

Key Rotation:
Thomas | Bradley | Crowder | Johnson | Sullinger
Smart | Turner | Jerebko | Olynick

• Unrestricted Free Agent:
E Turner (5.1m cap hold)
• Restricted Free Agents:
J Sullinger (8.9m cap hold / T Zeller(7.4m cap hold)
• Team Options:
A Johnson (12m or 18m cap hold) / J Jerebko (5m or 7.5m cap hold)

Boston has $51m in guaranteed salary, so they will have a maximum of $41 million in cap space. But to have that full amount they would need to waive and renounce all their free agents and team options.

Max salary contracts are Jr: $23.0m, Mid-Tier $27.6m and Vet $32.2m. So really - Boston only has enough to offer one maximum salary contract.

Because of who their free agents / team options are Boston looks like they would be looking for a SG or a PF or a Center.

***Jae Crowder (SF) was just signed to a great value contract and he is playing well. I doubt they chase Harrison Barnes.
***Isaah Thomas (PG) is an all-star. I find it hard to imagine they chase Conley because of that.

To add Al Horford, who is eligible for the Mid Tier max, Boston would have to renounce all but $13.4m of all their free agents / team options. That means they would have to waive either Amir Johnson or Jared Sullinger...plus a combination of others to attain Horford.

Thanks for breaking down the numbers. I just assumed Boston would be able to fit in 2 max guys this year. And it still seems possible that they can get 1. For that 1, they still may have some pull, maybe for someone like Al Horford, who would fit nicely with what they're trying to accomplish.

[ralphie9898]

There are a lot of pf s in the draft. I like brice johnson, ivan rabb, damian jones, henry ellenson, ben bentil

Brice Johnson is more of a second rounder.
Rabb is a late lottery pick that may be an option
Jones is more of a center who has been falling and is more in the second round
Henry Ellenson is high lottery pick that is currently out of our range
Bentil is a second rounder right now as well

Right now if we want a big at PF it is between Rabb, Marques Chriss of Washington, Chiek Diallo who is falling, or Deyonta Davis of Michigan State or at center we have Skal Labissiere who is falling, Jacob Poeltl, Ante Zizic out of Croatia, Jonathan Jeanne from France and Thomas Bryant out of Indiana. But I also would say we could trade the pick or we could not even select a big but rather look for a shooter at PG, SG or SF. But there are still way to many questions to be answered. College and Foreign players are still rising and falling as we have a lot of their season left as well as pre draft workouts and such. We don't even know where we will end up in the standings. Do we sneak into the playoffs? Do we stay at 11 or do we lose more and more and sink more and more down to the bottom. Plus we have the lottery which could shake things up. Plus we have free agency which we seem to be positioning ourselves by the recent trades to have more money to make a big splash fore one or even two big names. Yeah it is only 4 months away but still so much still has to be decided.

Don t know much about marques chriss and Thomas bryant, are they good?

Look up their stats. They are playing well enough to have a first round grade from scouts inc. on ESPN. Chriss is in the late lottery area right now and Bryant is in the 15-25 area.

[Tayswagzzz]

Pursue Conley/Howard in FA?
We'd be a deep team.

[D12VCMagic]

If we signed Conley, would you guys consider trading Payton or do you keep him as a backup on a rookie contract?

[Viper1500]

If we signed Conley, would you guys consider trading Payton or do you keep him as a backup on a rookie contract?

I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. He's still a solid backup in this league and would be a nice insurance policy bearing any injury to Conley.

[D12VCMagic]

If we signed Conley, would you guys consider trading Payton or do you keep him as a backup on a rookie contract?

I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. He's still a solid backup in this league and would be a nice insurance policy bearing any injury to Conley.

I'm not suggesting we trade him for fun, but if we got Conley it's worth calling around and seeing what teams may eye Payton. Because we'd still have Watson as a backup.

[ezzzp]

So which teams are our biggest competition for free agents this year? I think Boston can out-do us on almost every front. Feel like they're more likely to end up with 2 of Conley, Horford, and Barnes. The appeal of playing for an established playoff team full of young players and a coach who seems to get the most out of his team. And there's the lore of playing for a historically great franchise. Feel like that sounds more appealing to free agents than our pitch.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Well most of the league is competition. This has to be one of the worst years to have cap space as there are even good teams like Golden State that will have money. The rise in this cap as well as the following year will leave a lot of room for a lot of teams to add to their roster.

Not true, most teams have cap space BUT they also have key free agents with cap holds they can't renounce or they'll lose that player...look at my breakdown of Dallas and Boston in this thread.

In Dallas, if Parson's opts in that eats up most of their cap space, if he doesn't then his cap hold eats 150% more. Dallas has to hope that he opts out and then they have to renounce him - in order to be a player in free agency. So to take a swing at Durant as Parson's replacement, they lose Parson's...and that's before discussing their starting PG and Center: D Williams will opt out of a $5m contract (result of NJ buy out) to seek his final paycheck or Zaza Pachulia who is having a career year and looking for his very first big paycheck. So they'll have to pay DWill + Pachulia or roll the dice to chase new PG + C on top of whatever Parson's does. If for some chance they land Durant, then they can't afford both DWill or Pachulia because they'll be capped out...so they'll have one or two huge holes in roster - in which case why does Durant sign there?

Boston can create enough for one max free agent...but don't need a PG (Thomas) or a SF (Crowder - unless its Durant)...so they are really only in play for bigs like Horford, Whiteside or Howard...but to have enough space for one of those guys they have to renounce and waive their starting PF Johnson or let starting center Sullinger walk in restricted free agency and renounce his cap hold.

...and this type of scenario is the same for a lot of teams

...the key thing with the Magic's cap space is that they created enough room to be able to keep Fournier's cap hold + add two max contracts...and to get to that amount of cap space they don't have to renounce any relevant players.

[ezzzp]

If we signed Conley, would you guys consider trading Payton or do you keep him as a backup on a rookie contract?

I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. He's still a solid backup in this league and would be a nice insurance policy bearing any injury to Conley.

I'm not suggesting we trade him for fun, but if we got Conley it's worth calling around and seeing what teams may eye Payton. Because we'd still have Watson as a backup.

Conley is 28, so in 2-3 years as the Magic roster enters their prime, he'll be fading. This is why its crucial to keep EP in that scenario. Just as EP's shot and skill level is developed and entering his prime, Conley's is fading and thus can recede to backup while EP takes the reigns as starter. Its kind of perfect.

[SD2042]

Starting to hit me how real a possibility it is for Conley to leave the Grizzlies. Gasol is out the season with a broken foot and will only continue to age. Randolph has already declined. The rest of the team is lackluster with no future in sight. The Grizzlies are kinda just drifting in mediocrity. There are several teams in the East that Conley could join that would offer a brighter next 5 years for him, mostly the Celtics and us. The Knicks should go after him, but I just don't see the fit unless they get Horford or Barnes to join as well. After KD, I think he's the biggest fish on the market this off-season. Always loved his game and his 2015 playoff performance with the broken face is unforgettable for me. Would fit our culture well and provide much needed veteran leadership.

Yea its not looking good for Gasol and Memphis...Gasol is 31, does Conley risk his prime and best shot at a title for friendship? maybe its going to be a tough call...though Memphis can also pay him the most.

While the Grizzlies remain publicly optimistic that Gasol will make a full recovery and be ready for the start of the 2016/17 season, a physical therapist who is well-versed in the recovery process the big man will undergo told Peter Edmiston of The Commercial Appeal that there is less than a 10% chance that the Spaniard will return to his pre-injury form. Only time will tell if Gasol will be the player we are used to seeing when he makes his way back, but this offseason will likely be Conley’s last chance at a significant long-term payday. He may decide that risking his last remaining peak seasons on the durability of Gasol’s right foot isn’t the smart play and bolt for what he perceives to be greener pastures.

What put the Grizzlies in a bottleneck here are these issues:

They are a small market team who can only be allowed to go after key free agents in hopes to sign them to long term deals to better their core.

They did not improve key weaknesses (three point shooting and go to scorer) to better their chances to allow themselves a fighting chance in the playoffs this season.

The core has gotten older and the window has all, but close at this juncture.

In-spite of how good Conley and Gasol are as players, they are best describe as complimentary players like Pau Gasol was when he was with the Grizzlies until his trade to the Lakers 9yrs ago.

Given the Western Conference has been at it's weakest in two decades and no one appears to be in the Warriors way, it's become the best opportunity for the Grizzlies to rebuild the foundations from top to bottom and adapt to the way the NBA has evolve it's style of play.

[ralphie9898]

So which teams are our biggest competition for free agents this year? I think Boston can out-do us on almost every front. Feel like they're more likely to end up with 2 of Conley, Horford, and Barnes. The appeal of playing for an established playoff team full of young players and a coach who seems to get the most out of his team. And there's the lore of playing for a historically great franchise. Feel like that sounds more appealing to free agents than our pitch.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Well most of the league is competition. This has to be one of the worst years to have cap space as there are even good teams like Golden State that will have money. The rise in this cap as well as the following year will leave a lot of room for a lot of teams to add to their roster.

Not true, most teams have cap space BUT they also have key free agents with cap holds they can't renounce or they'll lose that player...look at my breakdown of Dallas and Boston in this thread.

In Dallas, if Parson's opts in that eats up most of their cap space, if he doesn't then his cap hold eats 150% more. Dallas has to hope that he opts out and then they have to renounce him - in order to be a player in free agency. So to take a swing at Durant as Parson's replacement, they lose Parson's...and that's before discussing their starting PG and Center: D Williams will opt out of a $5m contract (result of NJ buy out) to seek his final paycheck or Zaza Pachulia who is having a career year and looking for his very first big paycheck. So they'll have to pay DWill + Pachulia or roll the dice to chase new PG + C on top of whatever Parson's does. If for some chance they land Durant, then they can't afford both DWill or Pachulia because they'll be capped out...so they'll have one or two huge holes in roster - in which case why does Durant sign there?

Boston can create enough for one max free agent...but don't need a PG (Thomas) or a SF (Crowder - unless its Durant)...so they are really only in play for bigs like Horford, Whiteside or Howard...but to have enough space for one of those guys they have to renounce and waive their starting PF Johnson or let starting center Sullinger walk in restricted free agency and renounce his cap hold.

...and this type of scenario is the same for a lot of teams

...the key thing with the Magic's cap space is that they created enough room to be able to keep Fournier's cap hold + add two max contracts...and to get to that amount of cap space they don't have to renounce any relevant players.

Yeah they will have cap holds but they can renounce those guys. And again the cap goes up 20 mill. Yeah not everyone will have space but teams like Golden State will. They do have a decision to make on Harrison Barnes but they can decide to not resign him but instead go after someone else.

[ezzzp]

Yeah they will have cap holds but they can renounce those guys. And again the cap goes up 20 mill. Yeah not everyone will have space but teams like Golden State will. They do have a decision to make on Harrison Barnes but they can decide to not resign him but instead go after someone else.

If a team renounces a player's cap hold, that player can no longer be resigned over the salary cap. Meaning that team will almost certainly lose that player and have to refill that roster hole - which for Dallas would be up to three starters (PG, SF, and C) plus their back up PG.

Also I'm not sure how you are getting that Golden State Warriors have room...those rumors about Durant are click bait for casual or uninformed fans that don't understand how salary cap and rosters work.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/golden-state-warriors-team-salary/

Curry | Thompson | Barnes | Green | Bogut
Livingston | Iguodala | Ezeli

Golden State has $70m in guaranteed salary, with the salary cap at $92m that means they have $22m in salary cap. The very lowest Jr Max salary is $23m. Kevin Durant is eligible for the mid tier max which is $27.6 million.

For GSW to sign Durant they have to convince him to take a big pay cut....and that's before you even start talking about those free agent/team options which you say they can easily renounce. In that group are several key players:

Shaun Livingston - Team Option (5.8m) Livingston is a very key back up point guard and the 7th most used player on the roster. If GSW waive him, immediately other teams will make him offers - certainly higher than anything he has been payed before. GSW can not sign him over the salary cap.

Festus Ezeli - Restricted Free Agent (6.6m cap hold) Ezeli is GSW's key back up big, who has been a major factor every time Bogut gets hurt - which is often and played huge in the playoffs. 31 year old Bogut's contract ends next year, putting more pressure on GSW to match offer sheets for Ezeli, who will likely get max (or near max) offers from several teams looking for a young defensive anchor. Again if GSW renounce his cap hold, they lose the right to match and the ability to resign him over the salary cap.

Harrison Barnes - Restricted Free Agent (10.4m cap hold) Barnes is GSW's starting SF, and is one of the most intriguing forwards in the free agency market. He will likely get max (or near max) offers from several teams. Again if GSW renounce his cap hold, they lose the right to match and the ability to resign him over the salary cap.

...on top of those key players there will also be cap holds on free agents: M Speights, L Barbosa, and A Verajao.

[monchief]

I'm on board the Conley at a max, Barnes at a near max. Both fit our team long and short term needs. I'm scared of Horford. He's a great player, but he is aging, and his game keeps creeping away from the basket. With the drift to smallball, I'm not sure he's even a great option at PF. I think he's a better C.

As for draft... BPA. A (likely) lottery team with a lot of questions still remaining short and long term at nearly every position is in no place to choose a pick based on fit.

[OrlandoDream]

I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. He's still a solid backup in this league and would be a nice insurance policy bearing any injury to Conley.

I'm not suggesting we trade him for fun, but if we got Conley it's worth calling around and seeing what teams may eye Payton. Because we'd still have Watson as a backup.

Conley is 28, so in 2-3 years as the Magic roster enters their prime, he'll be fading. This is why its crucial to keep EP in that scenario. Just as EP's shot and skill level is developed and entering his prime, Conley's is fading and thus can recede to backup while EP takes the reigns as starter. Its kind of perfect.

Exactly. EP is a professional and would benefit the most by learning from a vet like Conley. I believe that conley still has a good 2-3 years to be playing at this level. This is enough time for EP to be developing coming off that bench and improving his shot, ft shooting, and passing.

Next to Kwahi Leonard, Conley is the most underrated player in the NBA. He has been for years bc he plays for a small market team and when your in a conference with showtime guys like Westbrook, Curry, Lillard, and CP3, he is easily overshadowed. The man has game and would be in the perfect situation for us. He is no superstar but just a smart player and a leader. Its a perfect fit.

I'm on board the Conley at a max, Barnes at a near max. Both fit our team long and short term needs. I'm scared of Horford. He's a great player, but he is aging, and his game keeps creeping away from the basket. With the drift to smallball, I'm not sure he's even a great option at PF. I think he's a better C.

As for draft... BPA. A (likely) lottery team with a lot of questions still remaining short and long term at nearly every position is in no place to choose a pick based on fit.

Im not. Sorry but Barnes is not a max player. He is a system player. Playing alongside curry makes him look like a max. If the Warriors win again(prob will), they will match any offer for him.