Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread II

[p0peye]

"Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity." I thought this was interesting.

Blazer's Edge game preview

"Blazer’s Edge Reader Questions
ralphzillo:

Is Orlando a good model for the Blazers rebuilding path? They made decent draft choices and some trades to fill out the roster. Now they are in the playoff hunt again after a fairly short (3-5 seasons) time in the cellar.

It depends on what your goals are. Do you want to be a playoff team? Or do you want to contend for a title? If you are happy with the former, the Magic are a prime example, likely in position to be a reasonably solid playoff team for a long time. They have all of their first-round picks going forward and a nice but not elite group of players with Paolo Banchero being the standout. To illustrate their situation, they have three players in The Ringer’s top 100 (same as the Blazers). The biggest problem is that none of them are in the top 30 (same as the Blazers), although if they redid the rankings today Banchero would probably sneak in there. Let’s assume Banchero keeps developing and becomes a superstar. As Blazers fans well know, one superstar is generally not enough to become a true contender. Will Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs get them to the top? Seems unlikely. So where are the players going to come from that gets them to the promised land? While Orlando has its future first-round draft picks, the Magic don’t have anyone else’s except for one from the Nuggets. They are either going to need to get really lucky with a late first-rounder or they are going to need to package a whole bunch of them in a trade and... get really lucky. You never know but the Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity. I doubt that’s a model that Cronin is interested in."

Fool that wrote that has a surprise coming with the rise of Black to superstardom, leading Magic to first threepeat since Kobe and Shaq.

Other than that, solid assessment.

[Knightro]

Paolo's long-term ceiling as a franchise player is a fascinating debate topic.

A lot of people are decidedly low on what he can become, but I also think a good bit of that chatter comes from people who box score watch more than actually watch.

Paolo doesn't grade all that favorably right now in a lot of advanced metrics like NET, EPM, etc. So people who don't watch a lot of Magic games see that and think he's making a minimal impact.

But then he was voted into the all-star game by NBA coaches. And NBA players also shower him with praise.

So it's a very interesting thing to look at broadly.

[eyriq]

"Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity." I thought this was interesting.

Blazer's Edge game preview

"Blazer’s Edge Reader Questions
ralphzillo:

Is Orlando a good model for the Blazers rebuilding path? They made decent draft choices and some trades to fill out the roster. Now they are in the playoff hunt again after a fairly short (3-5 seasons) time in the cellar.

It depends on what your goals are. Do you want to be a playoff team? Or do you want to contend for a title? If you are happy with the former, the Magic are a prime example, likely in position to be a reasonably solid playoff team for a long time. They have all of their first-round picks going forward and a nice but not elite group of players with Paolo Banchero being the standout. To illustrate their situation, they have three players in The Ringer’s top 100 (same as the Blazers). The biggest problem is that none of them are in the top 30 (same as the Blazers), although if they redid the rankings today Banchero would probably sneak in there. Let’s assume Banchero keeps developing and becomes a superstar. As Blazers fans well know, one superstar is generally not enough to become a true contender. Will Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs get them to the top? Seems unlikely. So where are the players going to come from that gets them to the promised land? While Orlando has its future first-round draft picks, the Magic don’t have anyone else’s except for one from the Nuggets. They are either going to need to get really lucky with a late first-rounder or they are going to need to package a whole bunch of them in a trade and... get really lucky. You never know but the Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity. I doubt that’s a model that Cronin is interested in."

Fool that wrote that has a surprise coming with the rise of Black to superstardom, leading Magic to first threepeat since Kobe and Shaq.

Other than that, solid assessment.

Nicely put. When AB is producing like SGA all the haters will be M.I.A. and we'll be celebrating at Dis-a-ney.

[eyriq]

21 and 22 year olds are leading the team to the organization's second double digit win improvement in a row. Two 20 year old lotto talents are in the pipeline. Significant pre-extension cap space. But we need to get lucky with late first rounders to avoid mediocrity?

I thought it was a good "outside" looking in.

I do not agree with their treadmill assessment of Franz though. I think his peak will be high enough.

As you say, we have a couple draft picks on the back end.

Yet Portland has a similar problem to us. I don't recall a single superstar saying "i wan't to sign in Portland" in the similar vein to Orlando. This means, teams like the Thunder have really managed to do something special in terms of building a potential contender just thru the draft.

I agree, it was a good view of the outside opinion. Really drives home that careless assessment can lead to some really stupid takes.

[Skybox]

21 and 22 year olds are leading the team to the organization's second double digit win improvement in a row. Two 20 year old lotto talents are in the pipeline. Significant pre-extension cap space. But we need to get lucky with late first rounders to avoid mediocrity?

The biggest differentiator between treadmill "Good" and contender will be what we do with cap space, picks, etc in trades and FA...we are about at the point where we have enough pieces for internal development. Relying on that to take a BIG step would likely lead to disappointment, IMO.

We're in GREAT position to take another big leap...but it won't be (solely) because AB goes from 2ppg to 9ppg.

[Fortune Teller]

He's probably not far off in his assessment. As currently constructed, this roster is not, and will not ever be, a title contender. The backcourt is not good enough and I'm not sure how you would argue with that. No starting PG, and a starting SG who averages 12 ppg in Year 3 after a very rough first two seasons. We added 2 guards in last year's lottery, neither of whom is good enough to even get on the court when the team is fully healthy. And we have a risk-averse GM who hoards mediocre draft picks and overpays part-time players for the sake of continuity.

So yeah, unless Welt takes a few chances and starts trying to put together a balanced roster, we're not competing for championships with this bunch.

[JoshuaPotter]

21 and 22 year olds are leading the team to the organization's second double digit win improvement in a row. Two 20 year old lotto talents are in the pipeline. Significant pre-extension cap space. But we need to get lucky with late first rounders to avoid mediocrity?

I thought it was a good "outside" looking in.

I do not agree with their treadmill assessment of Franz though. I think his peak will be high enough.

As you say, we have a couple draft picks on the back end.

Yet Portland has a similar problem to us. I don't recall a single superstar saying "i wan't to sign in Portland" in the similar vein to Orlando. This means, teams like the Thunder have really managed to do something special in terms of building a potential contender just thru the draft.

I agree, it was a good view of the outside opinion. Really drives home that careless assessment can lead to some really stupid takes.

Between Jett, Black, Suggs we need to wait for 1/3 things to happen.

- One of them becomes a 2/3rd option. I think we really forget how hard a job Franz + Paolo have at times
- They are develop via a leap and take over the current rotation (an interesting proposition that will likely lead to some L next season.)
- We package one or all 3 + draft picks + imaginary salary filler to get us a legit 3rd option Paul George anyone?

Jokes aside, at this very second. Our rebuild now is only as good as Black + Howard + Suggs becomes. Even if you assume a leap in skill we have too many missing pieces to be a top 3 contender. This is at this very second, has everything riding on Blacks development.

Which is really dumb and a huge roster mismanagement because if that was one of the plans we could have been giving him more chances to succeed and fail vs playoff tasting.

I say all this, because if the nucli in place wasn't the plan then coach likely wouldn't have been extended.

[MasterGMer]

"Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity." I thought this was interesting.

Blazer's Edge game preview

"Blazer’s Edge Reader Questions
ralphzillo:

Is Orlando a good model for the Blazers rebuilding path? They made decent draft choices and some trades to fill out the roster. Now they are in the playoff hunt again after a fairly short (3-5 seasons) time in the cellar.

It depends on what your goals are. Do you want to be a playoff team? Or do you want to contend for a title? If you are happy with the former, the Magic are a prime example, likely in position to be a reasonably solid playoff team for a long time. They have all of their first-round picks going forward and a nice but not elite group of players with Paolo Banchero being the standout. To illustrate their situation, they have three players in The Ringer’s top 100 (same as the Blazers). The biggest problem is that none of them are in the top 30 (same as the Blazers), although if they redid the rankings today Banchero would probably sneak in there. Let’s assume Banchero keeps developing and becomes a superstar. As Blazers fans well know, one superstar is generally not enough to become a true contender. Will Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs get them to the top? Seems unlikely. So where are the players going to come from that gets them to the promised land? While Orlando has its future first-round draft picks, the Magic don’t have anyone else’s except for one from the Nuggets. They are either going to need to get really lucky with a late first-rounder or they are going to need to package a whole bunch of them in a trade and... get really lucky. You never know but the Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity. I doubt that’s a model that Cronin is interested in."

I actually agree with this. We need a trade and we need someone from Free Agency, and that may not be enough.

It is a superstar league and if you want to win the ultimate goal, you need at least two. If Paolo becomes one, we need another one, that is how the league works.

Look at past Championships won, you will agree with me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Audi]

Given the money is the same, I think there are some guys in this league who see more value in bringing a franchise it’s first championship over going to play for a dynasty.

[eyriq]

He's probably not far off in his assessment. As currently constructed, this roster is not, and will not ever be, a title contender. The backcourt is not good enough and I'm not sure how you would argue with that. No starting PG, and a starting SG who averages 12 ppg in Year 3 after a very rough first two seasons. We added 2 guards in last year's lottery, neither of whom is good enough to even get on the court when the team is fully healthy. And we have a risk-averse GM who hoards mediocre draft picks and overpays part-time players for the sake of continuity.

So yeah, unless Welt takes a few chances and starts trying to put together a balanced roster, we're not competing for championships with this bunch.

I'm going to test your fortune telling abilities.

Is our core, currently, mediocre in terms of competitiveness?

What is our core's average age?

What is the average age of a championship core?

Now the fortune telling time. What will happen with our core's competitiveness between now and the time our core hits the average age for a championship team?

[eyriq]

"Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity." I thought this was interesting.

Blazer's Edge game preview

"Blazer’s Edge Reader Questions
ralphzillo:

Is Orlando a good model for the Blazers rebuilding path? They made decent draft choices and some trades to fill out the roster. Now they are in the playoff hunt again after a fairly short (3-5 seasons) time in the cellar.

It depends on what your goals are. Do you want to be a playoff team? Or do you want to contend for a title? If you are happy with the former, the Magic are a prime example, likely in position to be a reasonably solid playoff team for a long time. They have all of their first-round picks going forward and a nice but not elite group of players with Paolo Banchero being the standout. To illustrate their situation, they have three players in The Ringer’s top 100 (same as the Blazers). The biggest problem is that none of them are in the top 30 (same as the Blazers), although if they redid the rankings today Banchero would probably sneak in there. Let’s assume Banchero keeps developing and becomes a superstar. As Blazers fans well know, one superstar is generally not enough to become a true contender. Will Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs get them to the top? Seems unlikely. So where are the players going to come from that gets them to the promised land? While Orlando has its future first-round draft picks, the Magic don’t have anyone else’s except for one from the Nuggets. They are either going to need to get really lucky with a late first-rounder or they are going to need to package a whole bunch of them in a trade and... get really lucky. You never know but the Magic are poised for a bunch of years at the upper end of mediocrity. I doubt that’s a model that Cronin is interested in."

I actually agree with this. We need a trade and we need someone from Free Agency, and that may not be enough.

It is a superstar league and if you want to win the ultimate goal, you need at least two. If Paolo becomes one, we need another one, that is how the league works.

Look at past Championships won, you will agree with me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Do you agree that we know we don't have a championship core? If not, how much uncertainty do you feel?

A simplification for identifying a championship core tends to be that it needs a top 10 player, a top 20 player, and a top 50 player.

Given the lotto talent on rookie contracts count is 5, and given what we do know about these players, are you really certain we don't have what it takes to build a championship core from player development alone?

5 players to fill 3 spots over 5 seasons.

[eyriq]

I think draft focused rebuilds follow these general phases.

1. Tanking (acquire prospects and picks)
2. Player development (identify a core)
3. Playoff contention (establish an identity)
4. Re-tool (build around core)
5. Championship contention

We are in the middle of transitioning from phase 2 into phase 3. I'd argue we are ahead of schedule by a season if we skip the play-in. If we advance I'd say we're ahead of schedule by two seasons.

No evaluation should conclude with certainty that we can't identify a core from the lotto talent currently being developed. If the analysis does conclude that it gets thrown in the trash immediately.

[drsd]

I think draft focused rebuilds follow these general phases.

1. Tanking (acquire prospects and picks)
2. Player development (identify a core)
3. Playoff contention (establish an identity)
4. Re-tool (build around core)
5. Championship contention

We are in the middle of transitioning from phase 2 into phase 3. I'd argue we are ahead of schedule by a season if we skip the play-in. If we advance I'd say we're ahead of schedule by two seasons.

No evaluation should conclude with certainty that we can't identify a core from the lotto talent currently being developed. If the analysis does conclude that it gets thrown in the trash immediately.

And-1

If we look at where the Magic was during peak budie ball (Vučević, Fournier, and Gordon), the Magic drafted Okeke and Anthony. These are the sorts of players the Magic can "hope" to get from the draft over the next five years, or so.

[eyriq]

Paolo's long-term ceiling as a franchise player is a fascinating debate topic.

A lot of people are decidedly low on what he can become, but I also think a good bit of that chatter comes from people who box score watch more than actually watch.

Paolo doesn't grade all that favorably right now in a lot of advanced metrics like NET, EPM, etc. So people who don't watch a lot of Magic games see that and think he's making a minimal impact.

But then he was voted into the all-star game by NBA coaches. And NBA players also shower him with praise.

So it's a very interesting thing to look at broadly.

What's your view on Paolo? Curious how you harmonize the eye test with advanced stats.

[MasterGMer]

I think draft focused rebuilds follow these general phases.

1. Tanking (acquire prospects and picks)
2. Player development (identify a core)
3. Playoff contention (establish an identity)
4. Re-tool (build around core)
5. Championship contention

We are in the middle of transitioning from phase 2 into phase 3. I'd argue we are ahead of schedule by a season if we skip the play-in. If we advance I'd say we're ahead of schedule by two seasons.

No evaluation should conclude with certainty that we can't identify a core from the lotto talent currently being developed. If the analysis does conclude that it gets thrown in the trash immediately.

Really? That is what you said. Magic has a plan and we are ahead of that plan?

The whole systematic team building is centered on team getting a Super Star core to contend. Mediocrity is exactly what started the rebuild from trading away Vuc, AG and Fournier. The ways to get that superstars is either draft, free agency or trade.

If Paolo is that superstar we need. Is Franz one also? How we going to build a superstar core to one day contend? That is simply trade to Orlando Magic. We have all the assets. Of course, it takes risk. But are we willing to? And is the right opportunity there for us?

How we going to go from Phase 3 to Phase 4? How we going from Phase 4 to 5? That is the hardest part of this rebuild to WIN a Championship!

[eyriq]

I think draft focused rebuilds follow these general phases.

1. Tanking (acquire prospects and picks)
2. Player development (identify a core)
3. Playoff contention (establish an identity)
4. Re-tool (build around core)
5. Championship contention

We are in the middle of transitioning from phase 2 into phase 3. I'd argue we are ahead of schedule by a season if we skip the play-in. If we advance I'd say we're ahead of schedule by two seasons.

No evaluation should conclude with certainty that we can't identify a core from the lotto talent currently being developed. If the analysis does conclude that it gets thrown in the trash immediately.

Really? That is what you said. Magic has a plan and we are ahead of that plan?

The whole systematic team building is centered on team getting a Super Star core to contend. Mediocrity is exactly what started the rebuild from trading away Vuc, AG and Fournier. The ways to get that superstars is either draft, free agency or trade.

If Paolo is that superstar we need. Is Franz one also? How we going to build a superstar core to one day contend? That is simply trade to Orlando Magic. We have all the assets. Of course, it takes risk. But are we willing to? And is the right opportunity there for us?

How we going to go from Phase 3 to Phase 4? How we going from Phase 4 to 5? That is the hardest part of this rebuild to WIN a Championship!

It isn't just about taking risks but about making calculated decisions. It's one thing to say we should add superstar talent through free agency and trades but first you have to establish a solid foundation that makes us an attractive destination.

Establishing a solid foundation is about patience and not prematurely disrupting the growth process. We've got terrific young talent leading us to wins. Let the process play out.

[Bensational]

I think draft focused rebuilds follow these general phases.

1. Tanking (acquire prospects and picks)
2. Player development (identify a core)
3. Playoff contention (establish an identity)
4. Re-tool (build around core)
5. Championship contention

We are in the middle of transitioning from phase 2 into phase 3. I'd argue we are ahead of schedule by a season if we skip the play-in. If we advance I'd say we're ahead of schedule by two seasons.

No evaluation should conclude with certainty that we can't identify a core from the lotto talent currently being developed. If the analysis does conclude that it gets thrown in the trash immediately.

I think there’s also a bit of a parallel with the star player’s ascendance. I feel like future contending teams can be tracked by MVP breakout contenders. That year 4-6 mark where guys like SGA and Ant Edwards post insane numbers but lack the juice to go all the way. But that early MVP talk is often generated by them trying to do too much on their own, and after that they get some help (or learn to better use the help they have) to get them over humps.

So I reckon we see a big season coming from Paolo that gets him into the MVP conversation before this team is all-in at stage 5.

[eyriq]

I think draft focused rebuilds follow these general phases.

1. Tanking (acquire prospects and picks)
2. Player development (identify a core)
3. Playoff contention (establish an identity)
4. Re-tool (build around core)
5. Championship contention

We are in the middle of transitioning from phase 2 into phase 3. I'd argue we are ahead of schedule by a season if we skip the play-in. If we advance I'd say we're ahead of schedule by two seasons.

No evaluation should conclude with certainty that we can't identify a core from the lotto talent currently being developed. If the analysis does conclude that it gets thrown in the trash immediately.

I think there’s also a bit of a parallel with the star player’s ascendance. I feel like future contending teams can be tracked by MVP breakout contenders. That year 4-6 mark where guys like SGA and Ant Edwards post insane numbers but lack the juice to go all the way. But that early MVP talk is often generated by them trying to do too much on their own, and after that they get some help (or learn to better use the help they have) to get them over humps.

So I reckon we see a big season coming from Paolo that gets him into the MVP conversation before this team is all-in at stage 5.

Hmmm, that's a good point. You can really boil it all down to acquiring that transcendent star. The phases of a team's progression and the phases of that transcendent star's development run parallel. Very few champions lack a transcendent star. The main point of a tank is to find one in the draft. Everything else is secondary.

[pepe1991]

Paolo's long-term ceiling as a franchise player is a fascinating debate topic.

A lot of people are decidedly low on what he can become, but I also think a good bit of that chatter comes from people who box score watch more than actually watch.

Paolo doesn't grade all that favorably right now in a lot of advanced metrics like NET, EPM, etc. So people who don't watch a lot of Magic games see that and think he's making a minimal impact.

But then he was voted into the all-star game by NBA coaches. And NBA players also shower him with praise.

So it's a very interesting thing to look at broadly.

Among nba fans who aren't fans of XY team with xy players on it, being 30% usage rate player on 55% TS/ 5% below league's average eFG will always be viewed in similar fashion.

It just boils down to personal opinion how much you view team sucess as direct result of such player being highest usage rate player on a team.

[GelbeWand09]

For me hasn't changed much since pre draft. I take Chet still every day of the week over Paolo. Like I thought he just gonna be a top 10 impact player & elite 2way for the next 10-15 years and you have almost a playoff guarantee because he is a floor raiser.
The Problem is you still need a No. 1 option and you have to pray he stays healthy. So your ceiling is still limited without one.

Paolo is a gamble. He could be a 1st option on a contender but he needs to become a effective (60 TS%) 3 Level scorer. So far he is more the Vuc type (high volume, low eff. & on good days mediocre defense) but unlike Vuc he already puts much more pressure on the defense because of his drives/fts & creates more space for others with double triple teams and more dynamic passing at a younger age.
He is still super young and if his offense becomes efficient he can still become a good No. 1 option unlike Chet and he is doing all that under worst case circumstances (on offense) because of leaque worst spacing, horrible PG & his co star attacking the same spaces like him.
My biggest problem is the same as predraft. His finishing & shooting. He just doesn't finish strong enough & doesn't have elite touch for a guy living on drives to the hoop. This was always a reason I was skeptical about his future efficiency.

Unlike Houston we doesn't made our win now moves yet. Because of that you can't put a ceiling on the team anyway. But problem is, with Weltman at the helm there is a good chance we will never even make that big move.