Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread

[AaronB]

People jump to negative conclusions too early about young players.

It's probably more accurate to say that not everyone blindly believes players are going to improve significantly just because they're young and were drafted high.

*Of course* Anthony Black is going to get better at certain things. Pretty much every NBA player improves as they get more experience and as they mentally and physically mature. But plenty of guys either start from such a raw/low place that their improvement doesn't pull them up to an acceptable level, or they simply don't development enough.

How much better is Anthony Black going to get at point guard when they have him playing off the ball and he's content to fade into the background as a 3&D guy?

It took Jalen Suggs three years and a full blown role change from an on-ball guard to a primarily off-ball guard to become playable offensively and he's still a poor dribbler who is a net negatively overall offensively (-1.3 OBPM, -0.4 Offensive EPM).

You are mistaken.

The average EPM is -1.

Suggs on ball offensive skills are improving dramatically.

[msmoore66]

Have only gone back one extra page. But a bit confused about the AB chat. Is this a debate over getting another guy that would play ahead of him/potentially eat up his mins? As someone said, there are 96 mins in the backcourt. He will be fine.

I also don't think he has been a disappointment. I guess it all comes down to what your expectations are.

[Bensational]

I remember early this year, and all last year complaining how we seem to run zero plays for Paolo and now I am starting to see Paolo ast numbers tick up indicating that he was going to be the primary ball handler the entire time.

This is what I’m most uncertain about. I haven’t seen much from Paolo that suggests his game would be complimented by a traditional PG yet. He wants the ball in his hands and he’s not a very willing off-ball guy. We have no issues setting Moe Wagner up to feed as a roll man but we almost never run Paolo through those same actions.

That will be his biggest evolution as a player, IMO, when he’s willing to do work off the ball and let others control the ball. I think that’s when we’ll see the team start to look like a serious contender - but even that is probably a couple years away IMO.

[msmoore66]

I remember early this year, and all last year complaining how we seem to run zero plays for Paolo and now I am starting to see Paolo ast numbers tick up indicating that he was going to be the primary ball handler the entire time.

This is what I’m most uncertain about. I haven’t seen much from Paolo that suggests his game would be complimented by a traditional PG yet. He wants the ball in his hands and he’s not a very willing off-ball guy. We have no issues setting Moe Wagner up to feed as a roll man but we almost never run Paolo through those same actions.

That will be his biggest evolution as a player, IMO, when he’s willing to do work off the ball and let others control the ball. I think that’s when we’ll see the team start to look like a serious contender - but even that is probably a couple years away IMO.

Yeah I agree. That is probably the step change where his scoring (and probably shooting efficiency) will take a jump as well. As you say, probably a couple of years away and that is totally fine. Let him get a tonne of on ball reps, just need to make sure he doesn't get too entrenched in that to the point he never wants to work off ball.

[Bensational]

Yeah I agree. That is probably the step change where his scoring (and probably shooting efficiency) will take a jump as well. As you say, probably a couple of years away and that is totally fine. Let him get a tonne of on ball reps, just need to make sure he doesn't get too entrenched in that to the point he never wants to work off ball.

Yeah I feel like it’s a pretty common trajectory for a lot of young phenoms. They want to do everything themselves to begin with, eventually recognise their own limitations and then try to figure out how to lead a contending team with help. I look at guys like SGA, Edwards and Haliburton as a guys who are probably on the cusp of finding the balance between being the lead scorer and being the leader.

[Bergmaniac]

I looked at Isaac's game log this season and the correlation between his minutes and our success rate is even stronger than I suspected.

In the games he's missed, our record is 7-11. When he has played the record is 25-15.
When he has played 0-9 minutes, the record is 2-3.
When he has played 10+ minutes, the record is 23-12.
When he has played 17+ minutes, the record is 10-1.

He also leads the team by a mile in on/off rating (13.7) and net rating (11.8).

[eyriq]

I looked at Isaac's game log this season and the correlation between his minutes and our success rate is even stronger than I suspected.

In the games he's missed, our record is 7-11. When he has played the record is 25-15.
When he has played 0-9 minutes, the record is 2-3.
When he has played 10+ minutes, the record is 23-12.
When he has played 17+ minutes, the record is 10-1.

He also leads the team by a mile in on/off rating (13.7) and net rating (11.8).

Yeah, he's a defensive superstar

[Knightro]

I looked at Isaac's game log this season and the correlation between his minutes and our success rate is even stronger than I suspected.

In the games he's missed, our record is 7-11. When he has played the record is 25-15.
When he has played 0-9 minutes, the record is 2-3.
When he has played 10+ minutes, the record is 23-12.
When he has played 17+ minutes, the record is 10-1.

He also leads the team by a mile in on/off rating (13.7) and net rating (11.8).

He's been a wildly important player this season. He's right near the top of the list of the best and most overall impactful defensive players in the entire NBA.

[Bergmaniac]

I know he mostly plays against second units, but Isaac having a 101.1 defensive rating in a season when the worst offensive team in the league has a 107.5 offensive rating and all but the blatantly tanking teams are well over 110 in ORTG is really remarkable. Especially considering he has played 80% of his minutes together with Cole, 70% with Moe and 50% with Ingles. The lineup where Isaac-Cole-Ingles-Moe playing together has 98.7 DRTG in over 200 minutes, this is downright incredible. Moe, Cole and Ingles all have defensive rating over 119 without Isaac and below 105 with him.

I really hope he won't be out for long.

[Bensational]

I looked at Isaac's game log this season and the correlation between his minutes and our success rate is even stronger than I suspected.

In the games he's missed, our record is 7-11. When he has played the record is 25-15.
When he has played 0-9 minutes, the record is 2-3.
When he has played 10+ minutes, the record is 23-12.
When he has played 17+ minutes, the record is 10-1.

He also leads the team by a mile in on/off rating (13.7) and net rating (11.8).

You’ve been pulling out some great stat analysis this season. I’ve really appreciated the numbers you’ve been digging up and sharing with the board.

[msmoore66]

Yeah I agree. That is probably the step change where his scoring (and probably shooting efficiency) will take a jump as well. As you say, probably a couple of years away and that is totally fine. Let him get a tonne of on ball reps, just need to make sure he doesn't get too entrenched in that to the point he never wants to work off ball.

Yeah I feel like it’s a pretty common trajectory for a lot of young phenoms. They want to do everything themselves to begin with, eventually recognise their own limitations and then try to figure out how to lead a contending team with help. I look at guys like SGA, Edwards and Haliburton as a guys who are probably on the cusp of finding the balance between being the lead scorer and being the leader.

Yeah, good comps. I really like the SGA one in the sense that he has recognised his limitations pretty well. Seems to really play within his (extensive) capabilities now. Hope Paolo follows a similar trajectory. Being the lead scorer AND the leader is great way of looking at it.

[BadMofoPimp]

I was getting nostalgic the other day thinking about what if the Magic had kept Oladipo and kept Domantas Sabonis. Along with Harris, Vooch, with some cap space, they coulda been dangerous.

[Knightro]

You are mistaken.

The average EPM is -1.

Suggs on ball offensive skills are improving dramatically.

One of the things I don't love about EPM is that they have such a low minutes threshold for qualified players.

They have 467 players on the EPM list. But in a given year, only about 250 players play enough minutes to qualify for any statistical leaderboard.

So yes, it's factually accurate that when you factor in every NBA player that the average offensive, defensive and total EPM are all in the negatives.

But when you lop those extra 200 or so low minute/garbage time players (who also all pretty much unanimously have awful EPM's across the board) off the list, the averages rise pretty significantly across the board.

[eyriq]

I'm watching Orlando Magic all access about Paolo's All-Star weekend. Didn't like what I saw with the chemistry between Paolo and Keyonte lol

[Residual-Heat]

I know he mostly plays against second units, but Isaac having a 101.1 defensive rating in a season when the worst offensive team in the league has a 107.5 offensive rating and all but the blatantly tanking teams are well over 110 in ORTG is really remarkable. Especially considering he has played 80% of his minutes together with Cole, 70% with Moe and 50% with Ingles. The lineup where Isaac-Cole-Ingles-Moe playing together has 98.7 DRTG in over 200 minutes, this is downright incredible. Moe, Cole and Ingles all have defensive rating over 119 without Isaac and below 105 with him.

I really hope he won't be out for long.

Someone posted a tweet here about Isaac holding opponents to to like 27% FG.
Found the tweet:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I dont know where he's at right now as this tweet was from 20 days ago but i bet he's still leading the NBA in that category.

But Isaac has also defended the rim at ELITE level. Of players that played more than 20 games Isaac is holding opponents at 40.6% DFG within 6 feet of the rim. That is far better than Gobert, Kessler, Porzingis (all 3 at 48+%), Claxton, Chet, Wemby, Mobley, ect.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6?CF=GP*G*20&dir=A&sort=LT_06_PCT

He's also rebounding the ball very well averaging 10.3 per 36.

Yes he comes off the bench and plays less minutes, and im sure some of his numbers will suffer if he plays more, but he is so far ahead of the rest. A healthy Isaac is easily the best defender in the NBA IMO. Its really hard to find a player that can protect the rim and shut down guards/forwards and some big men (like KAT) like Isaac can.

[KillMonger]

People jump to negative conclusions too early about young players.

It's probably more accurate to say that not everyone blindly believes players are going to improve significantly just because they're young and were drafted high.

*Of course* Anthony Black is going to get better at certain things. Pretty much every NBA player improves as they get more experience and as they mentally and physically mature. But plenty of guys either start from such a raw/low place that their improvement doesn't pull them up to an acceptable level, or they simply don't development enough.

How much better is Anthony Black going to get at point guard when they have him playing off the ball and he's content to fade into the background as a 3&D guy?

It took Jalen Suggs three years and a full blown role change from an on-ball guard to a primarily off-ball guard to become playable offensively and he's still a poor dribbler who is a net negatively overall offensively (-1.3 OBPM, -0.4 Offensive EPM).

I'm emotionally as high on AB as @eyriq. Could be looked at as two ways.

We are just that bad at guard.
We need a guard that is just THAT good to stand out above Paolo + Franz.

I remember early this year, and all last year complaining how we seem to run zero plays for Paolo and now I am starting to see Paolo ast numbers tick up indicating that he was going to be the primary ball handler the entire time.

But do we need a guard that stands out as much as paolo and Franz? I'm thinking maybe but not right now because I think we're still building the team and not quite ready to compete... As far as AB is concerned I've seen enough to want to see his development through and if we do it right? How many 6'7 point guards are there in the league? In terms of timeline we have enough time to explore this avenue but I'm not opposed to bringing in a vet PG in the meantime until AB gains mose trust to take over...I think we're about 2 or 3 years from competing and about 4 or 5 from contending give or take a few years.....

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[magik9113]

Vegas has us favored by 10 tonight....hard to imagine we beat the Nets by that much. They are on a b2b but it was an easy blowout in Memphis last night.

[JoshuaPotter]

It's probably more accurate to say that not everyone blindly believes players are going to improve significantly just because they're young and were drafted high.

*Of course* Anthony Black is going to get better at certain things. Pretty much every NBA player improves as they get more experience and as they mentally and physically mature. But plenty of guys either start from such a raw/low place that their improvement doesn't pull them up to an acceptable level, or they simply don't development enough.

How much better is Anthony Black going to get at point guard when they have him playing off the ball and he's content to fade into the background as a 3&D guy?

It took Jalen Suggs three years and a full blown role change from an on-ball guard to a primarily off-ball guard to become playable offensively and he's still a poor dribbler who is a net negatively overall offensively (-1.3 OBPM, -0.4 Offensive EPM).

I'm emotionally as high on AB as @eyriq. Could be looked at as two ways.

We are just that bad at guard.
We need a guard that is just THAT good to stand out above Paolo + Franz.

I remember early this year, and all last year complaining how we seem to run zero plays for Paolo and now I am starting to see Paolo ast numbers tick up indicating that he was going to be the primary ball handler the entire time.

But do we need a guard that stands out as much as paolo and Franz? I'm thinking maybe but not right now because I think we're still building the team and not quite ready to compete... As far as AB is concerned I've seen enough to want to see his development through and if we do it right? How many 6'7 point guards are there in the league? In terms of timeline we have enough time to explore this avenue but I'm not opposed to bringing in a vet PG in the meantime until AB gains mose trust to take over...I think we're about 2 or 3 years from competing and about 4 or 5 from contending give or take a few years.....

Sent from my [Hands] using RealGM mobile app

I think most of the people agree with me. I am high on Black because we put him in a unique role in the NBA and although scoring sells his defense and offensive improvement over time was either good from the start or upward trajectory.

I am not sure if the spot is his next year to lose in terms of starting. A "veteran" PG as I have said, and you have said, may be the ticket. Even if he does start to minimize his mistakes and have Cole diverge more into the scoring "G" off the bench. It's one of the reasons I think our bench is so effective is Ingles + Isaac + Moe seems to have the right balance of offense, defense, and a creator who sets the table.

[p0peye]

I was getting nostalgic the other day thinking about what if the Magic had kept Oladipo and kept Domantas Sabonis. Along with Harris, Vooch, with some cap space, they coulda been dangerous.

Does Oladipo stay healthy in that parallel universe too? In either case, Sabonis frees us to trade Vučević sooner (for a pick that becomes Trae which we than trade for Luka). But, we would miss out on Paolo and Franz.

[MagicTownBaller]

I want to know when the NBA is going to answer the Knicks protest against the Rockets.