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Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1621 » by drsd » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:28 am

pepe1991 wrote:
drsd wrote:It is starting to look like a tremendous challenge for Orlando to climb up to a 25% winning record. At this point I struggle to see how the team can improve enough to get to a 20 win season.


With only 33 games left, there is zero hope they can win 20 games.
And probably as much chance of Isaac playing this year. Not even 100% sure Fultz will even return. Maybe for last 20 games or so.


The computers predict a final record of 19-63. "Zero hope" is a strong tone. Going 11-22 (33%) with a softer schedule is doable assuming there is more talent on the court moving forward.

But my original point is that it is now unlikely. (i.e. it is for the first time more probable statistically that Orlando finshes with LESS than 20 wins). Typing these words saddens me.


Question: will this team finish with the worst every Magic record? It is certainly possible. Going 8-25 (25.4%) is actually better than Orlando's current rate. Indeed at the current pace, Orlando finishes with a 15-67 record. BOO!

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1622 » by Audi » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 am

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
drsd wrote:It is starting to look like a tremendous challenge for Orlando to climb up to a 25% winning record. At this point I struggle to see how the team can improve enough to get to a 20 win season.


With only 33 games left, there is zero hope they can win 20 games.
And probably as much chance of Isaac playing this year. Not even 100% sure Fultz will even return. Maybe for last 20 games or so.


The computers predict a final record of 19-63. "Zero hope" is a strong tone. Going 11-22 (33%) with a softer schedule is doable assuming there is more talent on the court moving forward.

But my original point is that it is now unlikely. (i.e. it is for the first time more probable statistically that Orlando finshes with LESS than 20 wins). Typing these words saddens me.


Question: will this team finish with the worst every Magic record? It is certainly possible. Going 8-25 (25.4%) is actually better than Orlando's current rate. Indeed at the current pace, Orlando finishes with a 15-67 record. BOO!

..


Bright side is, we won’t hear from anyone about how we won any worthless games and skewed our lottery odds.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1623 » by Magic_Kingdom » Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:24 pm

And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1624 » by pepe1991 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:25 pm

Audi wrote:
drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
With only 33 games left, there is zero hope they can win 20 games.
And probably as much chance of Isaac playing this year. Not even 100% sure Fultz will even return. Maybe for last 20 games or so.


The computers predict a final record of 19-63. "Zero hope" is a strong tone. Going 11-22 (33%) with a softer schedule is doable assuming there is more talent on the court moving forward.

But my original point is that it is now unlikely. (i.e. it is for the first time more probable statistically that Orlando finshes with LESS than 20 wins). Typing these words saddens me.


Question: will this team finish with the worst every Magic record? It is certainly possible. Going 8-25 (25.4%) is actually better than Orlando's current rate. Indeed at the current pace, Orlando finishes with a 15-67 record. BOO!

..


Bright side is, we won’t hear from anyone about how we won any worthless games and skewed our lottery odds.



Maybe this year somebody complains about worthless lossess since we will probably have locked worst record with 8 games to go :lol:
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1625 » by drsd » Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:58 pm

Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


Orlando is 5 1/2 games worse than 3rd worst Houston. With only 33 games left, it would be an epic collapse of the Rockets to overtake the Magic in the L column.

The most opportunistic homerism would have the Magic being the 29th team. I cannot see a path to 28th.

Houston's current win rate is 29%; Orlando's is 18%. Ouch!

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1626 » by drsd » Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:00 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
Audi wrote:
drsd wrote:
The computers predict a final record of 19-63. "Zero hope" is a strong tone. Going 11-22 (33%) with a softer schedule is doable assuming there is more talent on the court moving forward.

But my original point is that it is now unlikely. (i.e. it is for the first time more probable statistically that Orlando finshes with LESS than 20 wins). Typing these words saddens me.


Question: will this team finish with the worst every Magic record? It is certainly possible. Going 8-25 (25.4%) is actually better than Orlando's current rate. Indeed at the current pace, Orlando finishes with a 15-67 record. BOO!

..


Bright side is, we won’t hear from anyone about how we won any worthless games and skewed our lottery odds.



Maybe this year somebody complains about worthless lossess since we will probably have locked worst record with 8 games to go :lol:


And-1

Detroit has an easier schedule than Orlando to close out the season. One can reasonably expect the Pistons to win more games than Orlando over the last 33/35.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1627 » by jonbob17 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:13 pm

Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


So much optimism and hope wrapped into one short post.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1628 » by j-ragg » Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:37 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


So much optimism and hope wrapped into one short post.

Can’t blame him lol. Probably most likely option.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1629 » by jonbob17 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:21 pm

j-ragg wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


So much optimism and hope wrapped into one short post.

Can’t blame him lol. Probably most likely option.


lol...they may as well sell the team.
Our players won't play...and our unknown draft picks are going to bust...Suggs will never be be a good point guard....Franz doesn't have the athleticism....Bamba won't pan out...well some of the skepticism may be deserved

yes, most likely draft spot is actually 5th, at 48%, odds are we won't be able to draft Holmgren anyways, who could easily go 1st at this point. You know because different teams see different players and different projections. Remember how 90% of Magic fans were loathed to the idea of Barnes at 5, who Raptors took at 4 because they saw something that 90% of Magic fans probably didn't think Barnes could be, let alone in year 1.

I am scared of the Magic taking Chet, and I was scared of the Magic taking Barnes, because i am not sure of their track record of developing some of these guys, but if the FO can't see the projectable high end of players, then we all should be really scared. Hell, if the Magic were to land #1 and they take the swing on Chet, we should be really excited. Hopefully whoever they take at 1. The safe picks are the scary ones, e.g. Wiseman.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1630 » by RookieStar » Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:04 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


So much optimism and hope wrapped into one short post.


Nope... that is what we like to call around here a " Magic post "
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1631 » by SOUL » Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:40 pm

Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


Again, frames have nothing to do with injuries. You can draft a behemoth like Embiid and have to wait two years or draft a Tayshaun Prince and have an ironman.

Look at their forum back then after he needed to sit out another year after missing the first one. Hell, look at ours. Nobody wanted to touch Embiid with a 10 foot pole because he played 0% of 164 games and thought he would never be anything.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1632 » by KillMonger » Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:10 am

SOUL wrote:
Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


Again, frames have nothing to do with injuries. You can draft a behemoth like Embiid and have to wait two years or draft a Tayshaun Prince and have an ironman.

Look at their forum back then after he needed to sit out another year after missing the first one. Hell, look at ours. Nobody wanted to touch Embiid with a 10 foot pole because he played 0% of 164 games and thought he would never be anything.

i really hate that kind of defeatist mentality man....sac up....you can't pass on a talent just because you think something might happen...you draft the talent and cross that bridge when you get there
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1633 » by SOUL » Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:20 am

KillMonger wrote:
SOUL wrote:
Magic_Kingdom wrote:And at the end of the day it will come down to luck and we will probably see two teams jump us like we do every year and pick third. In which case Holmgren can hang with Isaac on the perennially injured list, because there is no way that frame can stay healthy for an entire NBA season.


Again, frames have nothing to do with injuries. You can draft a behemoth like Embiid and have to wait two years or draft a Tayshaun Prince and have an ironman.

Look at their forum back then after he needed to sit out another year after missing the first one. Hell, look at ours. Nobody wanted to touch Embiid with a 10 foot pole because he played 0% of 164 games and thought he would never be anything.

i really hate that kind of defeatist mentality man....sac up....you can't pass on a talent just because you think something might happen...you draft the talent and cross that bridge when you get there


I feel like a lot of Magic fans are like that in general.. very "woe is me" and freak out if we don't have a certain pick, etc. Yeah we've been unlucky lately with dropping in the draft, injuries, etc, but if you expect everything to go bad, then it probably will. Make your own kind of luck. We just saw us get a franchise changer (if not then at least someone who will figure HEAVILY in our future plans) at the #8 pick so anything can happen.. and injuries can happen to any player ever so it's stupid to predict who will be hurt or not.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1634 » by Bensational » Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:46 am

SOUL wrote:
KillMonger wrote:
SOUL wrote:
Again, frames have nothing to do with injuries. You can draft a behemoth like Embiid and have to wait two years or draft a Tayshaun Prince and have an ironman.

Look at their forum back then after he needed to sit out another year after missing the first one. Hell, look at ours. Nobody wanted to touch Embiid with a 10 foot pole because he played 0% of 164 games and thought he would never be anything.

i really hate that kind of defeatist mentality man....sac up....you can't pass on a talent just because you think something might happen...you draft the talent and cross that bridge when you get there


I feel like a lot of Magic fans are like that in general.. very "woe is me" and freak out if we don't have a certain pick, etc. Yeah we've been unlucky lately with dropping in the draft, injuries, etc, but if you expect everything to go bad, then it probably will. Make your own kind of luck. We just saw us get a franchise changer (if not then at least someone who will figure HEAVILY in our future plans) at the #8 pick so anything can happen.. and injuries can happen to any player ever so it's stupid to predict who will be hurt or not.


There’s two sides to that coin though. I’m obviously big on rebuilds, drafts and development so I get excited about those. But if people look at the 10 year long rebuild we’ve been on with 9 lottery picks over that time plus a couple of mid-1sts, and of all that we haven't found a single cornerstone player yet or even someone who can consistently average 20ppg efficiently on a winning team. If you look at that track record and come away skeptical can anyone blame you? Similarly, if you ‘make your own luck’ and convince yourself Bamba is a superstar, then you could equally be setting yourself up for future failure if he doesn’t live up to that.

I’d be happier if some of our opinions and discussions didn’t exist in the far, absolute ends of spectrums so there was at least some chance of finding a middle ground.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1635 » by SOUL » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:03 am

Bensational wrote:There’s two sides to that coin though. I’m obviously big on rebuilds, drafts and development so I get excited about those. But if people look at the 10 year long rebuild we’ve been on with 9 lottery picks over that time plus a couple of mid-1sts, and of all that we haven't found a single cornerstone player yet or even someone who can consistently average 20ppg efficiently on a winning team. If you look at that track record and come away skeptical can anyone blame you? Similarly, if you ‘make your own luck’ and convince yourself Bamba is a superstar, then you could equally be setting yourself up for future failure if he doesn’t live up to that.

I’d be happier if some of our opinions and discussions didn’t exist in the far, absolute ends of spectrums so there was at least some chance of finding a middle ground.


I think that's a different discussion entirely though. To me, what I'm referring to is a mindset thing rather than being on one side or another. Like what you're alluding to, imo, is there are obvious positives and negatives to tanking or trying to compete year in and year out, and I've always existed somewhere in the middle depending on what our FO's intention is. I'm for the tank at this moment because we've shown a clear intention to do that. My expectations adjust as things change. People should always question things even when we have a good team because it's being proactive instead of reactive, which is important in the NBA.

However, I disagree on thinking people should always expect the worst when there is no concrete evidence behind something happening. Will Holmgren be more injury prone than Jabari or Banchero? Who knows. Maybe he'll be the least injured one of them all. Will we drop in the draft? Maybe, because it's mathematically the most likely thing to happen. Are we screwed if we don't get a top 3-4 pick? No, because year after year we see picks all throughout the first round change the hopes of fanbases. That's not selling people a false reality, it's the most common sense way of looking at things, but that doesn't also mean everything is going to work perfectly either.

What I'm basically saying is, if a bird **** on you when you go outside, you shouldn't expect that to happen every time you go outside. People are skittish and nervous and superstitious even about the Magic, I understand that, but to me that's just an extremely negative way to live in general and is just as delusional as an eternal optimist that sees nothing wrong at all.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1636 » by SOUL » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:07 am

Or for a better comparison, I don't want to ride in a car with someone that goes "you know, there is a probability that we could die in this car right now", I need him to tell me when there's a truck driving on the wrong side of the road about to hit us :lol:

But yes, having legit informative conversations about draft picks, team building, etc is important when it comes to online discourse, but increasingly more rare to find those conversations.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1637 » by Bensational » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:38 am

SOUL wrote:
Bensational wrote:There’s two sides to that coin though. I’m obviously big on rebuilds, drafts and development so I get excited about those. But if people look at the 10 year long rebuild we’ve been on with 9 lottery picks over that time plus a couple of mid-1sts, and of all that we haven't found a single cornerstone player yet or even someone who can consistently average 20ppg efficiently on a winning team. If you look at that track record and come away skeptical can anyone blame you? Similarly, if you ‘make your own luck’ and convince yourself Bamba is a superstar, then you could equally be setting yourself up for future failure if he doesn’t live up to that.

I’d be happier if some of our opinions and discussions didn’t exist in the far, absolute ends of spectrums so there was at least some chance of finding a middle ground.


I think that's a different discussion entirely though. To me, what I'm referring to is a mindset thing rather than being on one side or another. Like what you're alluding to, imo, is there are obvious positives and negatives to tanking or trying to compete year in and year out, and I've always existed somewhere in the middle depending on what our FO's intention is. I'm for the tank at this moment because we've shown a clear intention to do that. My expectations adjust as things change. People should always question things even when we have a good team because it's being proactive instead of reactive, which is important in the NBA.

However, I disagree on thinking people should always expect the worst when there is no concrete evidence behind something happening. Will Holmgren be more injury prone than Jabari or Banchero? Who knows. Maybe he'll be the least injured one of them all. Will we drop in the draft? Maybe, because it's mathematically the most likely thing to happen. Are we screwed if we don't get a top 3-4 pick? No, because year after year we see picks all throughout the first round change the hopes of fanbases. That's not selling people a false reality, it's the most common sense way of looking at things, but that doesn't also mean everything is going to work perfectly either.

What I'm basically saying is, if a bird **** on you when you go outside, you shouldn't expect that to happen every time you go outside. People are skittish and nervous and superstitious even about the Magic, I understand that, but to me that's just an extremely negative way to live in general and is just as delusional as an eternal optimist that sees nothing wrong at all.


I get what you’re saying. I might complain about today but I still have hope for the future.

That said, I understand it if people are down. It’s justifiable. For some, it was like a bird **** on them every time they watched a Magic game for the past decade, haha. I see people who are hungry for something good, they just haven’t been served it yet. Look at how many people jumped on the Vuc wagon as a legit first option/cornerstone piece when he managed one all star caliber season, or how nuts people went over a Cole Anthony hot streak. The will is there, but more often than not the results aren’t, and that’s where I think we see a little extra salt. One good player who is an obvious franchise piece will turn a lot of those attitudes.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1638 » by RichCollab » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:15 am

Just remember Tracy McGrady was the 9th pick in his draft.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1639 » by drsd » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:31 am

RichCollab wrote:Just remember Tracy McGrady was the 9th pick in his draft.


And he was quite mediocre his first three years in the league.

As a draftee, his grand achievement was to be a rotational player on a 45-37 roster that got swept in the first round of the playoffs.

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1640 » by drsd » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:37 am

The friendly confines of a home arena are supposed to help a team — especially a young team — get a boost. The extra support is supposed to give them energy.


OMD: Orlando Magic have to earn back their fans through their play

Let's say that the Home friendly schedule coupled with increases in depth and talent the Magic win 33% of their final games (i.e. go 11-22), there will be an upward vibe for the team going to the off-season. I guess this is hat I am hoping for as the best-case to close out the season.


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