SOUL wrote:Bensational wrote:There’s two sides to that coin though. I’m obviously big on rebuilds, drafts and development so I get excited about those. But if people look at the 10 year long rebuild we’ve been on with 9 lottery picks over that time plus a couple of mid-1sts, and of all that we haven't found a single cornerstone player yet or even someone who can consistently average 20ppg efficiently on a winning team. If you look at that track record and come away skeptical can anyone blame you? Similarly, if you ‘make your own luck’ and convince yourself Bamba is a superstar, then you could equally be setting yourself up for future failure if he doesn’t live up to that.
I’d be happier if some of our opinions and discussions didn’t exist in the far, absolute ends of spectrums so there was at least some chance of finding a middle ground.
I think that's a different discussion entirely though. To me, what I'm referring to is a mindset thing rather than being on one side or another. Like what you're alluding to, imo, is there are obvious positives and negatives to tanking or trying to compete year in and year out, and I've always existed somewhere in the middle depending on what our FO's intention is. I'm for the tank at this moment because we've shown a clear intention to do that. My expectations adjust as things change. People should always question things even when we have a good team because it's being proactive instead of reactive, which is important in the NBA.
However, I disagree on thinking people should always expect the worst when there is no concrete evidence behind something happening. Will Holmgren be more injury prone than Jabari or Banchero? Who knows. Maybe he'll be the least injured one of them all. Will we drop in the draft? Maybe, because it's mathematically the most likely thing to happen. Are we screwed if we don't get a top 3-4 pick? No, because year after year we see picks all throughout the first round change the hopes of fanbases. That's not selling people a false reality, it's the most common sense way of looking at things, but that doesn't also mean everything is going to work perfectly either.
What I'm basically saying is, if a bird **** on you when you go outside, you shouldn't expect that to happen every time you go outside. People are skittish and nervous and superstitious even about the Magic, I understand that, but to me that's just an extremely negative way to live in general and is just as delusional as an eternal optimist that sees nothing wrong at all.
Will Holmgren be more injury prone than Jabari or Banchero? Who knows. Maybe he'll be the least injured one of them all.
Everything is possible. But not everything is probable.
This is also possible, but not probable outcome. Drafting sub 90 kilos center sounds as dangerous as it is.
Maybe, because it's mathematically the most likely thing to happen. Are we screwed if we don't get a top 3-4 pick? No, because year after year we see picks all throughout the first round change the hopes of fanbases
It depends. If that turns into a case, and it turns into 2019 draft in terms of quality, slipping from 1-2 to 4 is slip between Zion & Morant to Hunter.
Issue with rebuild as strategy is very clear, obvious and doesn't need in depth explanation. It's depended on dumb luck and even if you are lucky enough to win lottery, it still doesn't mean you will get best prospect nor that best prospect will lead you anywhere. List of nba top 5 picks who lead their teams to titles is very, very short.
With shelf life of 8 years of drafting until expiring exstension, drafting 19 years old means most of bad teams just groom and develop young players for big markets that will take them later in their careers.
Also, teams who are worst in nba, in most situations ,aren't one 19 years old talented teen away from becomming relevant. That's why lottery becomes slippery slope Groundhog Day experience, where you can't sign anybody good, are too afraid or don't have assets for trade and repeating tank- and draft- over and over. Basically T wolves, Kings, Magic , experience for 10+ years.
If there is anybody in any forum, basketball dask, any place, who thinks one Jabari Smith will change tragjectory of Pistons, Houston or Orlando if they win lottery and draft him 1st, that somebody will be setting himself to one of biggest disappointments in sports history. Same is with Chet or Banchero.
There are drafts who have transending superstar potential type of guy. This draft, simply either: a) does not have
b) that person is very well hidden and won't go within top 3 picks.
NBA championship landscape is formed of basically same 5-8 people last 10 yeras. And those 5-8 people are all well connected and played against or with each other. you either have Steph, Durant , Kawhi, Giannis, Lebron , Harden or you are not in any serious championship contention. Thinking you will today draft one of those super-mega-uber stars and that guy will be loyal, his ego won't outgrown team and he won't have desire to leave you for bright lights of some LA ( look at allstar voting and Carmelo and Wiggins) is just being naive. Giannis is literally only player who is actual groundchanging player, who is yet to leave team and is on small market. Exception, not rule.
Late edit. i forgot Jokic and we can add LIllard, despite never doing anything major in playoffs. Those guys elect to stay (including Giannis ) because they are "tied" with megamax contract. Same contract that is crippling ,poison arrow for their teams because they eat almost 50% of cap themselfs. Therfore it's impossible to actually add any serious talent that isn't being re-signed. Situation with megamax leads to some of most awkward nba deals like 76ers and Tobias Harris, max contract to Chriss MIddelton, Wall getting $130M for 3 years without playing, dead weight of Westbrook...
