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Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1721 » by jonbob17 » Wed Feb 9, 2022 6:15 pm

RookieStar wrote:Never underestimate our tank. lol


I think we are overestimating our tank. And two more teams just joined the party.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1722 » by RookieStar » Wed Feb 9, 2022 9:39 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Never underestimate our tank. lol


I think we are overestimating our tank. And two more teams just joined the party.


lol.. well record-wise, we started too early for everyone except for DET so Im not too worried
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1723 » by basketballRob » Wed Feb 9, 2022 9:44 pm

RookieStar wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Never underestimate our tank. lol


I think we are overestimating our tank. And two more teams just joined the party.


lol.. well record-wise, we started too early for everyone except for DET so Im not too worried
The Covid games we won against Brooklyn and Atlanta hurt. Those were going to be sure losses.

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1724 » by RookieStar » Wed Feb 9, 2022 9:50 pm

basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
I think we are overestimating our tank. And two more teams just joined the party.


lol.. well record-wise, we started too early for everyone except for DET so Im not too worried
The Covid games we won against Brooklyn and Atlanta hurt. Those were going to be sure losses.

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MAybe.. but except for DET, we got a pretty good cushion so far. Now the question is if we can maintain that or not.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1725 » by drsd » Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:20 pm

RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
lol.. well record-wise, we started too early for everyone except for DET so Im not too worried
The Covid games we won against Brooklyn and Atlanta hurt. Those were going to be sure losses.

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MAybe.. but except for DET, we got a pretty good cushion so far. Now the question is if we can maintain that or not.


If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1726 » by jonbob17 » Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:21 pm

drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:The Covid games we won against Brooklyn and Atlanta hurt. Those were going to be sure losses.

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MAybe.. but except for DET, we got a pretty good cushion so far. Now the question is if we can maintain that or not.


If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..


What is the over/under on combined games played from here on out for ShaiGA and Myles Turner/Brogdon. There are teams above us that are going to be tanking. Portland may be out of our range, but I doubt we see Lillard again this year.

We are winning at a 56% rate over the last 9 games. Doesn't seem like we are going to keep losing at such a significant rate as we did earlier in the year. I don't see how we will keep pace with the bottom 3 teams, and it's a real possibility Indiana catches us.

After all this losing are we as fans going to be happy or satisfied with a 43% chance of picking 6-8
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1727 » by Dub_Sax » Thu Feb 10, 2022 2:41 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
MAybe.. but except for DET, we got a pretty good cushion so far. Now the question is if we can maintain that or not.


If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..


What is the over/under on combined games played from here on out for ShaiGA and Myles Turner/Brogdon. There are teams above us that are going to be tanking. Portland may be out of our range, but I doubt we see Lillard again this year.

We are winning at a 56% rate over the last 9 games. Doesn't seem like we are going to keep losing at such a significant rate as we did earlier in the year. I don't see how we will keep pace with the bottom 3 teams, and it's a real possibility Indiana catches us.

After all this losing are we as fans going to be happy or satisfied with a 43% chance of picking 6-8


Percentages aside I'm not a fan of playing to lose..I feel we did the best we could last year and ended up tied for the best chance to get the #1 pick and still ended up with #5..

it just not a good look if we go the "g league players" route again this season while essential giving 4 players the entire year off..

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1728 » by jonbob17 » Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:04 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
drsd wrote:
If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..


What is the over/under on combined games played from here on out for ShaiGA and Myles Turner/Brogdon. There are teams above us that are going to be tanking. Portland may be out of our range, but I doubt we see Lillard again this year.

We are winning at a 56% rate over the last 9 games. Doesn't seem like we are going to keep losing at such a significant rate as we did earlier in the year. I don't see how we will keep pace with the bottom 3 teams, and it's a real possibility Indiana catches us.

After all this losing are we as fans going to be happy or satisfied with a 43% chance of picking 6-8


Percentages aside I'm not a fan of playing to lose..I feel we did the best we could last year and ended up tied for the best chance to get the #1 pick and still ended up with #5..

it just not a good look if we go the "g league players" route again this season while essential giving 4 players the entire year off..

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I mean who cares what it looks like? It depends on what our goals as an organization are. Is it to get better or to win championships. If it's the latter it takes top of the league talent, and there is only so many ways for a team like Orlando to get that.

If we are satisfied with Franz Wagner (or Suggs) being our best player, then yeah, sure win away. Huge fans of those guys, but personally i'd prefer to be chasing a championship in a few years, and to find a league-best player we need better bites of the apple

And the lottery is certainly outside of our control, but what is better 100% chance at a top 5 pick or 57% of top 5 with a possibility of picking 8th. The difference between 5 and 8 is probably pretty significant in this draft.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1729 » by Dub_Sax » Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:28 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
What is the over/under on combined games played from here on out for ShaiGA and Myles Turner/Brogdon. There are teams above us that are going to be tanking. Portland may be out of our range, but I doubt we see Lillard again this year.

We are winning at a 56% rate over the last 9 games. Doesn't seem like we are going to keep losing at such a significant rate as we did earlier in the year. I don't see how we will keep pace with the bottom 3 teams, and it's a real possibility Indiana catches us.

After all this losing are we as fans going to be happy or satisfied with a 43% chance of picking 6-8


Percentages aside I'm not a fan of playing to lose..I feel we did the best we could last year and ended up tied for the best chance to get the #1 pick and still ended up with #5..

it just not a good look if we go the "g league players" route again this season while essential giving 4 players the entire year off..

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I mean who cares what it looks like? It depends on what our goals as an organization are. Is it to get better or to win championships. If it's the latter it takes top of the league talent, and there is only so many ways for a team like Orlando to get that.

If we are satisfied with Franz Wagner (or Suggs) being our best player, then yeah, sure win away. Huge fans of those guys, but personally i'd prefer to be chasing a championship in a few years, and to find a league-best player we need better bites of the apple


But there's no guarantee of a better bite via the draft lottery.. getting better and chasing a championship can happen congruently starting now with Suggs and Franz and theoretically whoever we get in this year's draft..

I guess what I'm saying is let's get Fultz Isaac MCW and Moore on the court with the current active roster and start building from there rather than trying to lose and get a "top pick", which is, as previously stated, not a guarantee..

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1730 » by jonbob17 » Thu Feb 10, 2022 3:37 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:
Percentages aside I'm not a fan of playing to lose..I feel we did the best we could last year and ended up tied for the best chance to get the #1 pick and still ended up with #5..

it just not a good look if we go the "g league players" route again this season while essential giving 4 players the entire year off..

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I mean who cares what it looks like? It depends on what our goals as an organization are. Is it to get better or to win championships. If it's the latter it takes top of the league talent, and there is only so many ways for a team like Orlando to get that.

If we are satisfied with Franz Wagner (or Suggs) being our best player, then yeah, sure win away. Huge fans of those guys, but personally i'd prefer to be chasing a championship in a few years, and to find a league-best player we need better bites of the apple


But there's no guarantee of a better bite via the draft lottery.. getting better and chasing a championship can happen congruently starting now with Suggs and Franz and theoretically whoever we get in this year's draft..

I guess what I'm saying is let's get Fultz Isaac MCW and Moore on the court with the current active roster and start building from there rather than trying to lose and get a "top pick", which is, as previously stated, not a guarantee..

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We also don't have to sit the guys for the next three months. What we can do is limit minutes, and rest on one side of a back to back. Things like that impact the outcome of games. I am not sure Franz needs another 38 minute game this season. Let's keep these kids fresh and healthy, while also giving us the best odds at both a top pick and highest floor (pick).
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1731 » by Dub_Sax » Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:20 pm

jonbob17 wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
I mean who cares what it looks like? It depends on what our goals as an organization are. Is it to get better or to win championships. If it's the latter it takes top of the league talent, and there is only so many ways for a team like Orlando to get that.

If we are satisfied with Franz Wagner (or Suggs) being our best player, then yeah, sure win away. Huge fans of those guys, but personally i'd prefer to be chasing a championship in a few years, and to find a league-best player we need better bites of the apple


But there's no guarantee of a better bite via the draft lottery.. getting better and chasing a championship can happen congruently starting now with Suggs and Franz and theoretically whoever we get in this year's draft..

I guess what I'm saying is let's get Fultz Isaac MCW and Moore on the court with the current active roster and start building from there rather than trying to lose and get a "top pick", which is, as previously stated, not a guarantee..

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We also don't have to sit the guys for the next three months. What we can do is limit minutes, and rest on one side of a back to back. Things like that impact the outcome of games. I am not sure Franz needs another 38 minute game this season. Let's keep these kids fresh and healthy, while also giving us the best odds at both a top pick and highest floor (pick).


This logic is twisted to me.. why are you trying to keep 20 yr old kids fresh instead of letting them play and get as much game experience as possible and still be able to get a high lottery pick?



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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1732 » by jonbob17 » Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:57 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:
But there's no guarantee of a better bite via the draft lottery.. getting better and chasing a championship can happen congruently starting now with Suggs and Franz and theoretically whoever we get in this year's draft..

I guess what I'm saying is let's get Fultz Isaac MCW and Moore on the court with the current active roster and start building from there rather than trying to lose and get a "top pick", which is, as previously stated, not a guarantee..

Sent from my SM-G781V using RealGM mobile app


We also don't have to sit the guys for the next three months. What we can do is limit minutes, and rest on one side of a back to back. Things like that impact the outcome of games. I am not sure Franz needs another 38 minute game this season. Let's keep these kids fresh and healthy, while also giving us the best odds at both a top pick and highest floor (pick).



This logic is twisted to me.. why are you trying to keep 20 yr old kids fresh instead of letting them play and get as much game experience as possible and still be able to get a high lottery pick?



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What's the difference in terms of development in 24 minutes vs 36 minutes? I suppose in terms of injury risk it's at least 50% increased, and possibly much higher than that if you buy into the idea that fatigue plays a role in injuries. This was discussed ad nauseum last year during the condensed schedule, and I don't really have opinion one way or the other.

The reasoning is of course to guarantee yourself a top 5 pick vs a top 8 pick. There are always tiers in the draft, and this year's tier is probably going to be a pretty sharp drop after 4-6 depending on how the FO value these guys. Not that the past has any influence of the future, the Magic specifically have been 1 pick away from the talent so many times in recent years. Embiid, Porzingis, Trae Young/Doncic.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1733 » by RookieStar » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:19 pm

drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:The Covid games we won against Brooklyn and Atlanta hurt. Those were going to be sure losses.

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MAybe.. but except for DET, we got a pretty good cushion so far. Now the question is if we can maintain that or not.


If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..


Record-wise I see us being the worst or 2nd worst for all teams. We then again turn to lotto-luck as where we will pick. Our FO knows whats up. Watch when we see a depleted team face us, we magically have phantom-injuries or covid protocols being rushed up.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1734 » by Dub_Sax » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:34 pm

RookieStar wrote:
drsd wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
MAybe.. but except for DET, we got a pretty good cushion so far. Now the question is if we can maintain that or not.


If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..


Record-wise I see us being the worst or 2nd worst for all teams. We then again turn to lotto-luck as where we will pick. Our FO knows whats up. Watch when we see a depleted team face us, we magically have phantom-injuries or covid protocols being rushed up.
I'm a big believer in karma, so if/when we do stuff like that, while we might end up with the worst record, we may still end up with the 5th pick...in a four player draft..

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1735 » by RookieStar » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:37 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
drsd wrote:
If Orlando gets hot and Houston trades the team, Orlando could climb to 28th worst NBA team. That's the ceiling here. Orlando is 4 W's behind OKC.


..


Record-wise I see us being the worst or 2nd worst for all teams. We then again turn to lotto-luck as where we will pick. Our FO knows whats up. Watch when we see a depleted team face us, we magically have phantom-injuries or covid protocols being rushed up.
I'm a big believer in karma, so if/when we do stuff like that, while we might end up with the worst record, we may still end up with the 5th pick...in a four player draft..

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While I do believe in karma as well... I don't think that scenario happening is because of karma. It will happen because we are the MAgic and ish like that happens to us all the time. lol
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1736 » by drsd » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:39 pm

jonbob17 wrote:We are winning at a 56% rate over the last 9 games.


That's a cherry-picked stat.

Here's a better one. Orlando has won 100% of its last game.

....

Here's another one in the negative: Orlando has only won 33% of its last three games.

My point: you clipped off a 4-game losing streak that immediately preceded these 9 games. Over the 13, Orlando was 38.4%.

But in that 38.4% number, as a more suitable stat that proves your point: if Orlando wins at a 38% rate to close out the season, the Magic probably does catch Houston to finish as the 28th worst team.

..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1737 » by drsd » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:41 pm

Dub_Sax wrote:Percentages aside I'm not a fan of playing to lose..


Win out and make the play-ins. I BELIEVE !



..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1738 » by SOUL » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:42 pm

Ew
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1739 » by drsd » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:43 pm

jonbob17 wrote:I mean who cares what it looks like? It depends on what our goals as an organization are. Is it to get better or to win championships.


One leads to the other. A bad team goes through mediocrity to get good. There is no precedent for a bad team being a championship contender the following season.

Orlando's upside goal next year is to win from 35-45 games. That is the absolute ceiling if every single perfect thing exactly aligns.


..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#1740 » by Dub_Sax » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:47 pm

RookieStar wrote:
Dub_Sax wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Record-wise I see us being the worst or 2nd worst for all teams. We then again turn to lotto-luck as where we will pick. Our FO knows whats up. Watch when we see a depleted team face us, we magically have phantom-injuries or covid protocols being rushed up.
I'm a big believer in karma, so if/when we do stuff like that, while we might end up with the worst record, we may still end up with the 5th pick...in a four player draft..

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While I do believe in karma as well... I don't think that scenario happening is because of karma. It will happen because we are the MAgic and ish like that happens to us all the time. lol
And that ish seems to happen when we're playing games with the organizational mindset of getting a high draft pick instead of playing the best players available and trying to win every game, no matter the opponent

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