Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

pepe1991 · Post #1741 » by **pepe1991** » Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:45 pm

Butler will probably play 44 min. Just leave Mirotić wide open and tank should be safe.

Nemesis21 · Post #1742 » by **Nemesis21** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:05 pm

We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need. :banghead:

Top 4 pick :pray:

Hoopslife · Post #1743 » by **Hoopslife** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:43 pm

If we tie Philly, the lotto balls are split, correct? And most likely in that scenario one of the pair will move into the top 3...

thelead · Post #1744 » by **thelead** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:06 pm

Hoopslife wrote:If we tie Philly, the lotto balls are split, correct? And most likely in that scenario one of the pair will move into the top 3...

Yes.

MAGICian619 · Post #1745 » by **MAGICian619** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:16 pm

thelead wrote:
Hoopslife wrote:If we tie Philly, the lotto balls are split, correct? And most likely in that scenario one of the pair will move into the top 3...

Yes.

In this scenario I understand the balls are split, but assuming neither team is selected in the lottery, how is the #4 and #5 pick determined? Is it a coin flip at that point? Also, when would that coin flip take place?

PrimeThyme · Post #1746 » by **PrimeThyme** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:34 pm

Knicks have to lose tomorrow, right? If Sac and Minny lose tonight and tomorrow and the Knicks win then they all 3 split lottery odds. Knicks have no incentive to win.

rcklsscognition · Post #1747 » by **rcklsscognition** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:21 pm

MAGICian619 wrote:
thelead wrote:
Hoopslife wrote:If we tie Philly, the lotto balls are split, correct? And most likely in that scenario one of the pair will move into the top 3...

Yes.

In this scenario I understand the balls are split, but assuming neither team is selected in the lottery, how is the #4 and #5 pick determined? Is it a coin flip at that point? Also, when would that coin flip take place?

The flip will determine who has slightly better odds and also who would draft first in case there is no movement. The winner is officially placed in the 4 spot and the loser 5th.

Usually the "coin flip" to break tiebreakers happens not long after the season ends, probably would take place in later this week or
next, so that teams know where they stand. FWIW I do not think it is an actual coin flip, but a random number sequence draw I think, similar to the lottery.

If we wind up losing the toss we would then face a 66.6% chance of landing the 5th-8th pick.

thelead · Post #1748 » by **thelead** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:24 pm

PrimeShaq wrote:Knicks have to lose tomorrow, right? If Sac and Minny lose tonight and tomorrow and the Knicks win then they all 3 split lottery odds. Knicks have no incentive to win.

This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

yoyojw17 · Post #1749 » by **yoyojw17** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:29 pm

thelead wrote:
PrimeShaq wrote:Knicks have to lose tomorrow, right? If Sac and Minny lose tonight and tomorrow and the Knicks win then they all 3 split lottery odds. Knicks have no incentive to win.

This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

I agree.... something has to change.... after this season.... or whenever we finally figure things out. hahah

MagicFan101 · Post #1750 » by **MagicFan101** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:31 pm

thelead wrote:
PrimeShaq wrote:Knicks have to lose tomorrow, right? If Sac and Minny lose tonight and tomorrow and the Knicks win then they all 3 split lottery odds. Knicks have no incentive to win.

This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

It works both ways.

Without the lotto you are locked into the spot you "earn" in the draft order.

With the lottery you have a chance to fall back to a worse pick despite tanking or you have a chance to win a higher pick than your performance warrants.

It is human nature to get excited about the possibility of winning. People love to gamble. So the lottery doesn't do a good job of scaring teams away from tanking.

I wouldn't say that is a problem with the lottery, I would say it's a problem with people. While it may not work as desired, no one has offered a guaranteed better solution and if nothing else the draft lottery is an event people watch which means a bit more $$ for the league.

thelead · Post #1751 » by **thelead** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:13 pm

MagicFan101 wrote:
thelead wrote:
PrimeShaq wrote:Knicks have to lose tomorrow, right? If Sac and Minny lose tonight and tomorrow and the Knicks win then they all 3 split lottery odds. Knicks have no incentive to win.

This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

It works both ways.

Without the lotto you are locked into the spot you "earn" in the draft order.

With the lottery you have a chance to fall back to a worse pick despite tanking or you have a chance to win a higher pick than your performance warrants.

It is human nature to get excited about the possibility of winning. People love to gamble. So the lottery doesn't do a good job of scaring teams away from tanking.

I wouldn't say that is a problem with the lottery, I would say it's a problem with people. While it may not work as desired, no one has offered a guaranteed better solution and if nothing else the draft lottery is an event people watch which means a bit more $$ for the league.

Give every lotto team equal chances of landing a top 5 pick.

MagicFan101 · Post #1752 » by **MagicFan101** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:14 pm

thelead wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
thelead wrote:This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

It works both ways.

Without the lotto you are locked into the spot you "earn" in the draft order.

With the lottery you have a chance to fall back to a worse pick despite tanking or you have a chance to win a higher pick than your performance warrants.

It is human nature to get excited about the possibility of winning. People love to gamble. So the lottery doesn't do a good job of scaring teams away from tanking.

I wouldn't say that is a problem with the lottery, I would say it's a problem with people. While it may not work as desired, no one has offered a guaranteed better solution and if nothing else the draft lottery is an event people watch which means a bit more $$ for the league.

Give every lotto team equal chances of landing a top 5 pick.

Sounds good to me.

OrlDave · Post #1753 » by **OrlDave** » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:20 pm

The NYK + Phil game should be fascinating. Neither team wants to win. NYK winning puts them in a tie with Minny and Sac for 31 wins. Philly winning unties them with us.

PennytoShaq · Post #1754 » by **PennytoShaq** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:47 am

We have to lose this game. We must be in the top 4. I'm praying for some stroke of luck when those balls drop to get us into the top 2. Just feel like the guy to start the team over with is Fultz.

npiper17 · Post #1755 » by **npiper17** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:44 am

Looks like the Lakers are about to secure the 3rd best lottery odds. Bit of a tanking mishap on their part because a few weeks back I'd have said they were nailed on for the 2nd worst record.

Post #1756 » by **Howard Mass** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:50 am

The Lakers won and have secured the #3 spot in The Lottery.

cedric76 · Post #1757 » by **cedric76** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:36 am

55% chance lal loses its pick . Let's pray

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

drsd · Post #1758 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:08 am

Nemesis21 wrote:We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.

OrlDave wrote:The NYK + Phil game should be fascinating.

It is sad that there are paying fans who will watch two team try harder to lose the game. Sad.

Nemesis21 wrote:Top 4 pick

The most probably scenario for the 4th worst team is to draft 5th. But it is also more probable to go top-3 (37.8%) compared to 5th (35.1%) !

rcklsscognition wrote:If we wind up losing the toss we would then face a 66.6% chance of landing the 5th-8th pick.

Where in total the Magic has ~55% chance to draft 5 or 6.

MagicFan101 wrote:
thelead wrote:This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

It works both ways.

Without the lotto you are locked into the spot you "earn" in the draft order.

Indeed the lottery does suppress tanking. I think the fans’ problem right now is that it is not doing it enough. But the old system of the the worst team only having a 16.7% chance to win was seen to harsh (because the Magic won the lottery with what was seen as an overly high 1.5% chance to win).

For me the only way to disconnect the regular season from the lottery is to have every game matter to achieve a playoff slot, for all teams. Bill Simmons had a proposal that the top-7 teams makes the playoffs outright and the bottom 8 play in a seeded single-game elimination tourney to get the 8 seed. This would be exciting and make late season games relevant.

But what we probably will get is the wheel. See NBA draft wheel LINK
It was rumored that ownership supports of this system to kill the tank.

cedric76 wrote:55% chance lal loses its pick . Let's pray

The absolute best case scenario is for Orlando to win the lottery (currently at 10.3%) and the Sixers to get the Lakers slot (53.1%). The odds are better than 10.3% * 53.1% = 5.5%, as they are linked odds (Orlando winning the lottery ensures the Lakers cannot draft overall #1.

So the odds for this best case scenario is 10.3% (Orlando winning) times 68.7% (The chance of Lakers sliding out of 2nd or 3rd after the Magic wins the lottery) = 7.1%. Or only 1 in 14 odds!

..

NEM · Post #1759 » by **NEM** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:58 am

Updated

It all comes down to tonight. I've indicated which teams are locked into their spots (Nets, Suns, Lakers, Hornets, Pistons). I also included the TOR/LAC pick under key games. That pick currently stands at 25, with potential to reach 23 if things go our way, but it's a long shot.

cedric76 · Post #1760 » by **cedric76** » Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:59 pm

drsd wrote:
Nemesis21 wrote:We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.

OrlDave wrote:The NYK + Phil game should be fascinating.

It is sad that there are paying fans who will watch two team try harder to lose the game. Sad.

Nemesis21 wrote:Top 4 pick

The most probably scenario for the 4th worst team is to draft 5th. But it is also more probable to go top-3 (37.8%) compared to 5th (35.1%) !

rcklsscognition wrote:If we wind up losing the toss we would then face a 66.6% chance of landing the 5th-8th pick.

Where in total the Magic has ~55% chance to draft 5 or 6.

MagicFan101 wrote:
thelead wrote:This is the problem with the current system. No one in the lotto has incentive to win this late in the season.

It works both ways.

Without the lotto you are locked into the spot you "earn" in the draft order.

Indeed the lottery does suppress tanking. I think the fans’ problem right now is that it is not doing it enough. But the old system of the the worst team only having a 16.7% chance to win was seen to harsh (because the Magic won the lottery with what was seen as an overly high 1.5% chance to win).

For me the only way to disconnect the regular season from the lottery is to have every game matter to achieve a playoff slot, for all teams. Bill Simmons had a proposal that the top-7 teams makes the playoffs outright and the bottom 8 play in a seeded single-game elimination tourney to get the 8 seed. This would be exciting and make late season games relevant.

But what we probably will get is the wheel. See NBA draft wheel LINK
It was rumored that ownership supports of this system to kill the tank.

cedric76 wrote:55% chance lal loses its pick . Let's pray

The absolute best case scenario is for Orlando to win the lottery (currently at 10.3%) and the Sixers to get the Lakers slot (53.1%). The odds are better than 10.3% * 53.1% = 5.5%, as they are linked odds (Orlando winning the lottery ensures the Lakers cannot draft overall #1.

So the odds for this best case scenario is 10.3% (Orlando winning) times 68.7% (The chance of Lakers sliding out of 2nd or 3rd after the Magic wins the lottery) = 7.1%. Or only 1 in 14 odds!

..

As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6