Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team"

[rcklsscognition]

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[drsd]

Some early stats:

Orlando is winning by scoring. The team is:
5th in FGs made per game at 44.0
3rd in FTs made per game at 23.0

So even though the team is not doing well long-range (30th in the league at 26.5 attempts per) or making (19th in 3-ball percentage), Orlando it 3rd-tied for scoring per game.

What one take from this is that Orlando's fast pace is leading to a high percentage of 2 point shots (and the team is 7th in the NBA in FG%) and FT attempts (4th in the NBA at 28.3 per). Amazingly the team is not only shooting a huge number of FTs, the team is making them (6th in the NBA at 81.4%) !

Also amazing, given the fast pace, Orlando is not turning the ball over (5th in the NBA at only 12.0 per). Orlando is also not fouling a lot (7th in the NBA at only 19.3 personal fouls per).

The Magic is also 8th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.3 per), which is a shock given that the team is making a lot of their shots. Defensive rebounding is mid-pack (16th), but together the team is a better than average rebounding team (10th in the NBA at 46.5 per).

Interestingly Orlando is not a high assist team (21st at 23.3 per), but is a high steal team (3rd at 10.3 per). Orlando is not protecting the rim either assessed by blocking shots (29th at only 2.0 per) or opponent FG% (28th at a whopping 49.2%).

One thing the Magic is doing well is defending the 3-ball (5th at opponent 31.7%). The Magic isn't being blocked (4th at only 4.0 opponent blocks against) nor having the ball stolen (6th at only 6.3 per).


..


Taken together, this team is oddly an elite offensive team but a poor defensive team.




..

[RookieStar]

What is a foe list?

I thought it's the ignore list?

I'm surprised some overly offended schmuck hasn't changed it to the "you're a valuable person, but i need a break" list

LOL I get ya.. even here in realgm GB someone wants to be a "karen" by being offended for the sake of being offended and accused me of some ish

[RookieStar]

Some early stats:

Orlando is winning by scoring. The team is:
5th in FGs made per game at 44.0
3rd in FTs made per game at 23.0

So even though the team is not doing well long-range (30th in the league at 26.5 attempts per) or making (19th in 3-ball percentage), Orlando it 3rd-tied for scoring per game.

What one take from this is that Orlando's fast pace is leading to a high percentage of 2 point shots (and the team is 7th in the NBA in FG%) and FT attempts (4th in the NBA at 28.3 per). Amazingly the team is not only shooting a huge number of FTs, the team is making them (6th in the NBA at 81.4%) !

Also amazing, given the fast pace, Orlando is not turning the ball over (5th in the NBA at only 12.0 per). Orlando is also not fouling a lot (7th in the NBA at only 19.3 personal fouls per).

The Magic is also 8th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.3 per), which is a shock given that the team is making a lot of their shots. Defensive rebounding is mid-pack (16th), but together the team is a better than average rebounding team (10th in the NBA at 46.5 per).

Interestingly Orlando is not a high assist team (21st at 23.3 per), but is a high steal team (3rd at 10.3 per). Orlando is not protecting the rim either assessed by blocking shots (29th at only 2.0 per) or opponent FG% (28th at a whopping 49.2%).

One thing the Magic is doing well is defending the 3-ball (5th at opponent 31.7%). The Magic isn't being blocked (4th at only 4.0 opponent blocks against) nor having the ball stolen (6th at only 6.3 per).


..


Taken together, this team is oddly an elite offensive team but a poor defensive team.




..

Which is a surprise because that's the opposite of who we are for the last couple of years.

[CPBalla2003 n da 863]

Some early stats:

Orlando is winning by scoring. The team is:
5th in FGs made per game at 44.0
3rd in FTs made per game at 23.0

So even though the team is not doing well long-range (30th in the league at 26.5 attempts per) or making (19th in 3-ball percentage), Orlando it 3rd-tied for scoring per game.

What one take from this is that Orlando's fast pace is leading to a high percentage of 2 point shots (and the team is 7th in the NBA in FG%) and FT attempts (4th in the NBA at 28.3 per). Amazingly the team is not only shooting a huge number of FTs, the team is making them (6th in the NBA at 81.4%) !

Also amazing, given the fast pace, Orlando is not turning the ball over (5th in the NBA at only 12.0 per). Orlando is also not fouling a lot (7th in the NBA at only 19.3 personal fouls per).

The Magic is also 8th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.3 per), which is a shock given that the team is making a lot of their shots. Defensive rebounding is mid-pack (16th), but together the team is a better than average rebounding team (10th in the NBA at 46.5 per).

Interestingly Orlando is not a high assist team (21st at 23.3 per), but is a high steal team (3rd at 10.3 per). Orlando is not protecting the rim either assessed by blocking shots (29th at only 2.0 per) or opponent FG% (28th at a whopping 49.2%).

One thing the Magic is doing well is defending the 3-ball (5th at opponent 31.7%). The Magic isn't being blocked (4th at only 4.0 opponent blocks against) nor having the ball stolen (6th at only 6.3 per).


..


Taken together, this team is oddly an elite offensive team but a poor defensive team.




..

Makes you wonder where would our defensive ranks would be if we had Isaac, Bamba and Aminu playing. Also one of our better defenders (AG) is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury.

[MasterGMer]

We have Evan Fournier's bird right next offseason. Should we resign him even though we might sneak into luxury tax?

Evan shot more than 40% in 3s last year and this is his contract year, he has been good. More and more I understand the FO not in urgency to move him this past offseason.

If his new contract is reasonable, should we resign him?

[fendilim]

Some early stats:

Orlando is winning by scoring. The team is:
5th in FGs made per game at 44.0
3rd in FTs made per game at 23.0

So even though the team is not doing well long-range (30th in the league at 26.5 attempts per) or making (19th in 3-ball percentage), Orlando it 3rd-tied for scoring per game.

What one take from this is that Orlando's fast pace is leading to a high percentage of 2 point shots (and the team is 7th in the NBA in FG%) and FT attempts (4th in the NBA at 28.3 per). Amazingly the team is not only shooting a huge number of FTs, the team is making them (6th in the NBA at 81.4%) !

Also amazing, given the fast pace, Orlando is not turning the ball over (5th in the NBA at only 12.0 per). Orlando is also not fouling a lot (7th in the NBA at only 19.3 personal fouls per).

The Magic is also 8th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.3 per), which is a shock given that the team is making a lot of their shots. Defensive rebounding is mid-pack (16th), but together the team is a better than average rebounding team (10th in the NBA at 46.5 per).

Interestingly Orlando is not a high assist team (21st at 23.3 per), but is a high steal team (3rd at 10.3 per). Orlando is not protecting the rim either assessed by blocking shots (29th at only 2.0 per) or opponent FG% (28th at a whopping 49.2%).

One thing the Magic is doing well is defending the 3-ball (5th at opponent 31.7%). The Magic isn't being blocked (4th at only 4.0 opponent blocks against) nor having the ball stolen (6th at only 6.3 per).


..


Taken together, this team is oddly an elite offensive team but a poor defensive team.




..

so 4-0 is an anomaly and we are still a lottery team.

[RookieStar]

Some early stats:

Orlando is winning by scoring. The team is:
5th in FGs made per game at 44.0
3rd in FTs made per game at 23.0

So even though the team is not doing well long-range (30th in the league at 26.5 attempts per) or making (19th in 3-ball percentage), Orlando it 3rd-tied for scoring per game.

What one take from this is that Orlando's fast pace is leading to a high percentage of 2 point shots (and the team is 7th in the NBA in FG%) and FT attempts (4th in the NBA at 28.3 per). Amazingly the team is not only shooting a huge number of FTs, the team is making them (6th in the NBA at 81.4%) !

Also amazing, given the fast pace, Orlando is not turning the ball over (5th in the NBA at only 12.0 per). Orlando is also not fouling a lot (7th in the NBA at only 19.3 personal fouls per).

The Magic is also 8th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.3 per), which is a shock given that the team is making a lot of their shots. Defensive rebounding is mid-pack (16th), but together the team is a better than average rebounding team (10th in the NBA at 46.5 per).

Interestingly Orlando is not a high assist team (21st at 23.3 per), but is a high steal team (3rd at 10.3 per). Orlando is not protecting the rim either assessed by blocking shots (29th at only 2.0 per) or opponent FG% (28th at a whopping 49.2%).

One thing the Magic is doing well is defending the 3-ball (5th at opponent 31.7%). The Magic isn't being blocked (4th at only 4.0 opponent blocks against) nor having the ball stolen (6th at only 6.3 per).


..


Taken together, this team is oddly an elite offensive team but a poor defensive team.




..

so 4-0 is an anomaly and we are still a lottery team.

So i can't pack-up my tank yet? Gotta rev the engine again for the brutal stretch of games next week?

[zaymon]

We have Evan Fournier's bird right next offseason. Should we resign him even though we might sneak into luxury tax?

Evan shot more than 40% in 3s last year and this is his contract year, he has been good. More and more I understand the FO not in urgency to move him this past offseason.

If his new contract is reasonable, should we resign him?

I think we should, there is no realistic replacement for him right now both on our team and in the nba in general. Question is if he wants to resign with us.
I predict we will trade AG to make room.for Evan.
When Isaac and Aminu are back and Okeke is fully unleashed we will have no space for Gordon. He is not vital to our success right now.

[drsd]

We have Evan Fournier's bird right next offseason. Should we resign him even though we might sneak into luxury tax?

Evan shot more than 40% in 3s last year and this is his contract year, he has been good. More and more I understand the FO not in urgency to move him this past offseason.

If his new contract is reasonable, should we resign him?

If the Magic commit to Fournier, it means that Management sees the roster from three years ago + Fultz as the title-condemning team the envisage.

At a basic level, one question is the market for Fournier. Is there a team that will pay him a four-year 80M deal? If not, the Magic could probably get him for five-years at 90M. Either as a V-shape or a declining deal: something like 20M, 20M, 18M, 16M, 16M.

Personally I would rather the Magic trade Gordon and a couple firsts for Beal-type player and absorb the costs with an expiring Fournier, Ennis, and Birch.

[drsd]

so 4-0 is an anomaly and we are still a lottery team.

At this point a 24-36 record might be enough for a play-in spot. If the Magic does not win 35% of their games from this point, the team does not deserve to be in the post-season.


..

[drsd]

I think we should, there is no realistic replacement for him right now both on our team and in the nba in general. Question is if he wants to resign with us.
I predict we will trade AG to make room.for Evan.
When Isaac and Aminu are back and Okeke is fully unleashed we will have no space for Gordon. He is not vital to our success right now.

So resigning Fournier and trading Gordon leads to this starting roster next year (I am assuming Birch and Ennis are not resigned, and that Aminu opts-in to his 10M).

Fultz/Carter-Williams/Anthony
Fournier/Ross/xxxxx
Isaac/Bacon/Clark
xxxxx/Okeke/Aminu
Vučević/Bamba/xxxxx

In the mid-draft, Mr. BPA is likely to be a wing, so bench depth is met in the draft. A LLE Vet could be inked for deep bench depth at C.

That leaves a question as to which PF the Magic want to pick up by trading a PF. This is a challenging question as the trade of Gordon would not be to balance the roster, but change on roster slot's skill set. If Fultz develops an outside game, the Magic will not need shooting per se. So what, rebounding? Indeed trading Gordon in a scenario Fournier is resigned would be about lowering salary (resulting in a probable reduction in talent at the PF slot).

[pepe1991]

Too early to make any conclusions, we need 20-25-30 games sample size.
Now, we still work under so little data that one game changes perception of every single number.

it's better to be 4-0 than 0-4, of course it is. But we kind a didn't play any good team, on paper Heat, but Heat is nowhere near playof form. Butler is nursing injury from nba finals and he only actually played against us, looked how he did. Injuried and slow.

IMO, February is first sersious month for major breakdowns of what is going on. We are also now heading into a part of schedule where we will probably lose 4 of 5 games ( Dallas, Bucks, Boston , Boston,Brooklyn) so people will be overreacting to Ls just like now everybody is overreacting on Ws.

But it's important to not jump on conclusions until we have enough games to make logical conclusions.

[pepe1991]

Watch on YouTube

imo great video. Finding role players who accept their roles is key of almost every team.

[Catledge]

Some early stats:

Orlando is winning by scoring. The team is:
5th in FGs made per game at 44.0
3rd in FTs made per game at 23.0

So even though the team is not doing well long-range (30th in the league at 26.5 attempts per) or making (19th in 3-ball percentage), Orlando it 3rd-tied for scoring per game.

What one take from this is that Orlando's fast pace is leading to a high percentage of 2 point shots (and the team is 7th in the NBA in FG%) and FT attempts (4th in the NBA at 28.3 per). Amazingly the team is not only shooting a huge number of FTs, the team is making them (6th in the NBA at 81.4%) !

Also amazing, given the fast pace, Orlando is not turning the ball over (5th in the NBA at only 12.0 per). Orlando is also not fouling a lot (7th in the NBA at only 19.3 personal fouls per).

The Magic is also 8th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.3 per), which is a shock given that the team is making a lot of their shots. Defensive rebounding is mid-pack (16th), but together the team is a better than average rebounding team (10th in the NBA at 46.5 per).

Interestingly Orlando is not a high assist team (21st at 23.3 per), but is a high steal team (3rd at 10.3 per). Orlando is not protecting the rim either assessed by blocking shots (29th at only 2.0 per) or opponent FG% (28th at a whopping 49.2%).

One thing the Magic is doing well is defending the 3-ball (5th at opponent 31.7%). The Magic isn't being blocked (4th at only 4.0 opponent blocks against) nor having the ball stolen (6th at only 6.3 per).


..


Taken together, this team is oddly an elite offensive team but a poor defensive team.




..

I love a good stats roundup. Please keep them coming.

If you are looking for future topics for stat deep-dives as the early season develops in the next few weeks, please allow me to suggest these:

-- Ennis/Bacon comparison (maybe Ennis' bubble stats vs Bacon's early-season stats)

-- DJ/Cole comparison (DJ's stats last year vs Cole this year)

-- Fultz's playmaking stats last year compared to this year

[jonbob17]

I am convinced AG’s defense is highly overrated. He looks great when he is focused like in a playoff series, but he disappears during the regular season. So far this year he seemed interested in game 1.

This team looks a lot like the post Isaac Jan-March team last year that was scoring the ball well but giving up a lot of points.

We are going to need more minutes from MCW and Bamba out there with the 2nd unit, and get AG engaged on the defense side of the ball. I would rather AG score 10 points a game and play good on ball defense than only focused on offense.

AG disappearing on defense is more frustrating than any effort issues from Bamba. We know AG is a capable defender, but he has to do it more often.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I am convinced AG’s defense is highly overrated. He looks great when he is focused like in a playoff series, but he disappears during the regular season. So far this year he seemed interested in game 1.

This team looks a lot like the post Isaac Jan-March team last year that was scoring the ball well but giving up a lot of points.

We are going to need more minutes from MCW and Bamba out there with the 2nd unit, and get AG engaged on the defense side of the ball. I would rather AG score 10 points a game and play good on ball defense than only focused on offense.

AG disappearing on defense is more frustrating than any effort issues from Bamba. We know AG is a capable defender, but he has to do it more often.

Why?

[j-ragg]

We have Evan Fournier's bird right next offseason. Should we resign him even though we might sneak into luxury tax?

This thought of this team being in the luxury tax is insane.

At some point we have to stop this whole... "retain the asset" mantra right? Since nothing ever gets done with the asset and all?

Fournier wasn't a trade asset on his rookie deal, or any of the 5 years of his second deal, and I doubt he'll be an asset on this next one whoever gives it to him. I can understand a team as starved for shooting as this one (mistake made by the team even though obvious for years) might think harder about it, but it'd be a strong no from me.

[MagicStarwipe]

We have Evan Fournier's bird right next offseason. Should we resign him even though we might sneak into luxury tax?

This thought of this team being in the luxury tax is insane.

At some point we have to stop this whole... "retain the asset" mantra right? Since nothing ever gets done with the asset and all?

Fournier wasn't a trade asset on his rookie deal, or any of the 5 years of his second deal, and I doubt he'll be an asset on this next one whoever gives it to him. I can understand a team as starved for shooting as this one (mistake made by the team even though obvious for years) might think harder about it, but it'd be a strong no from me.

The 2nd threepeat Bulls didn't have as much faith in their core as we do

[zaymon]

I think we should, there is no realistic replacement for him right now both on our team and in the nba in general. Question is if he wants to resign with us.
I predict we will trade AG to make room.for Evan.
When Isaac and Aminu are back and Okeke is fully unleashed we will have no space for Gordon. He is not vital to our success right now.

So resigning Fournier and trading Gordon leads to this starting roster next year (I am assuming Birch and Ennis are not resigned, and that Aminu opts-in to his 10M).

Fultz/Carter-Williams/Anthony
Fournier/Ross/xxxxx
Isaac/Bacon/Clark
xxxxx/Okeke/Aminu
Vučević/Bamba/xxxxx

In the mid-draft, Mr. BPA is likely to be a wing, so bench depth is met in the draft. A LLE Vet could be inked for deep bench depth at C.

That leaves a question as to which PF the Magic want to pick up by trading a PF. This is a challenging question as the trade of Gordon would not be to balance the roster, but change on roster slot's skill set. If Fultz develops an outside game, the Magic will not need shooting per se. So what, rebounding? Indeed trading Gordon in a scenario Fournier is resigned would be about lowering salary (resulting in a probable reduction in talent at the PF slot).

Fultz/Anthony
Fournier/Ross Bacon
Isaac/MCW/ Bacon/Clark
Aminu/Okeke Clark
Vučević/Bamba

I see it like this, perfectly balanced. After next year it could be Fournier/Isaac/Okeke wing/forward rotation. unless we trade for a star ofc.