Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

[Leopold Stoich]

We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.

The NYK + Phil game should be fascinating.

It is sad that there are paying fans who will watch two team try harder to lose the game. Sad.

Top 4 pick

The most probably scenario for the 4th worst team is to draft 5th. But it is also more probable to go top-3 (37.8%) compared to 5th (35.1%) !

If we wind up losing the toss we would then face a 66.6% chance of landing the 5th-8th pick.

Where in total the Magic has ~55% chance to draft 5 or 6.

It works both ways.

Without the lotto you are locked into the spot you "earn" in the draft order.

Indeed the lottery does suppress tanking. I think the fans’ problem right now is that it is not doing it enough. But the old system of the the worst team only having a 16.7% chance to win was seen to harsh (because the Magic won the lottery with what was seen as an overly high 1.5% chance to win).

For me the only way to disconnect the regular season from the lottery is to have every game matter to achieve a playoff slot, for all teams. Bill Simmons had a proposal that the top-7 teams makes the playoffs outright and the bottom 8 play in a seeded single-game elimination tourney to get the 8 seed. This would be exciting and make late season games relevant.

But what we probably will get is the wheel. See NBA draft wheel LINK
It was rumored that ownership supports of this system to kill the tank.

55% chance lal loses its pick . Let's pray

The absolute best case scenario is for Orlando to win the lottery (currently at 10.3%) and the Sixers to get the Lakers slot (53.1%). The odds are better than 10.3% * 53.1% = 5.5%, as they are linked odds (Orlando winning the lottery ensures the Lakers cannot draft overall #1.

So the odds for this best case scenario is 10.3% (Orlando winning) times 68.7% (The chance of Lakers sliding out of 2nd or 3rd after the Magic wins the lottery) = 7.1%. Or only 1 in 14 odds!






..

As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

[Nyce_1]

We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.


Top 4 pick

to make it worse, if we lost 2 of the games we won, we'd tie/pass the Lakers, smh. That win against the 6'ers in OT kills me.

[pepe1991]

It is sad that there are paying fans who will watch two team try harder to lose the game. Sad.





The most probably scenario for the 4th worst team is to draft 5th. But it is also more probable to go top-3 (37.8%) compared to 5th (35.1%) !





Where in total the Magic has ~55% chance to draft 5 or 6.






Indeed the lottery does suppress tanking. I think the fans’ problem right now is that it is not doing it enough. But the old system of the the worst team only having a 16.7% chance to win was seen to harsh (because the Magic won the lottery with what was seen as an overly high 1.5% chance to win).

For me the only way to disconnect the regular season from the lottery is to have every game matter to achieve a playoff slot, for all teams. Bill Simmons had a proposal that the top-7 teams makes the playoffs outright and the bottom 8 play in a seeded single-game elimination tourney to get the 8 seed. This would be exciting and make late season games relevant.

But what we probably will get is the wheel. See NBA draft wheel LINK
It was rumored that ownership supports of this system to kill the tank.




The absolute best case scenario is for Orlando to win the lottery (currently at 10.3%) and the Sixers to get the Lakers slot (53.1%). The odds are better than 10.3% * 53.1% = 5.5%, as they are linked odds (Orlando winning the lottery ensures the Lakers cannot draft overall #1.

So the odds for this best case scenario is 10.3% (Orlando winning) times 68.7% (The chance of Lakers sliding out of 2nd or 3rd after the Magic wins the lottery) = 7.1%. Or only 1 in 14 odds!






..

As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

Don't belive a hype. They say it every year before a draft. If this draft has two future allstars you can consider it a good draft.

[Leopold Stoich]

As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

Don't belive a hype. They say it every year before a draft. If this draft has two future allstars you can consider it a good draft.

Granted, there will be busts, that's a given but not every draft is considered deep drafts. The year we drafted Dipo, so many analysts stated that it was a tremendously weak draft. I think there are going to be some great players out the gate in this draft by the looks of all the reports.

[cedric76]

It is sad that there are paying fans who will watch two team try harder to lose the game. Sad.





The most probably scenario for the 4th worst team is to draft 5th. But it is also more probable to go top-3 (37.8%) compared to 5th (35.1%) !





Where in total the Magic has ~55% chance to draft 5 or 6.






Indeed the lottery does suppress tanking. I think the fans’ problem right now is that it is not doing it enough. But the old system of the the worst team only having a 16.7% chance to win was seen to harsh (because the Magic won the lottery with what was seen as an overly high 1.5% chance to win).

For me the only way to disconnect the regular season from the lottery is to have every game matter to achieve a playoff slot, for all teams. Bill Simmons had a proposal that the top-7 teams makes the playoffs outright and the bottom 8 play in a seeded single-game elimination tourney to get the 8 seed. This would be exciting and make late season games relevant.

But what we probably will get is the wheel. See NBA draft wheel LINK
It was rumored that ownership supports of this system to kill the tank.




The absolute best case scenario is for Orlando to win the lottery (currently at 10.3%) and the Sixers to get the Lakers slot (53.1%). The odds are better than 10.3% * 53.1% = 5.5%, as they are linked odds (Orlando winning the lottery ensures the Lakers cannot draft overall #1.

So the odds for this best case scenario is 10.3% (Orlando winning) times 68.7% (The chance of Lakers sliding out of 2nd or 3rd after the Magic wins the lottery) = 7.1%. Or only 1 in 14 odds!






..

As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

In your dream maybe. Not in the reality world. Stop believing the hype.
I guess you were on of the gullible that thought Mario would be the white mamba.
Fultz maybe.
Have hope Isaac could be one too.

The rest? A poor version of Jason kidd isn't a franchise player to me

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

[Blue_and_Whte]

We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.


Top 4 pick

to make it worse, if we lost 2 of the games we won, we'd tie/pass the Lakers, smh. That win against the 6'ers in OT kills me.

This is the same bull that happened last season. The three more wins than the Knicks put us just out of reach of the 4th pick and we ended up with Mario Hezonja. The same exact garbage is going to happen again this season. The Sixers are going to pick ahead of us in a strong draft while already having Embiid and Simmons. We're basically hosed. But at least we got those 7 extra wins, right Anti Tankers? I hope you guys like supporting a mediocre treadmill team.

[VFX]

As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

In your dream maybe. Not in the reality world. Stop believing the hype.
I guess you were on of the gullible that thought Mario would be the white mamba.
Fultz maybe.
Have hope Isaac could be one too.

The rest? A poor version of Jason kidd isn't a franchise player to me

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

The chances that whoever we draft in the top 5 being better than a majority of players on this team in 2-3 years is extremely high.

These players are 18/19 how do you know ?

[VFX]

We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.


Top 4 pick

to make it worse, if we lost 2 of the games we won, we'd tie/pass the Lakers, smh. That win against the 6'ers in OT kills me.

This is the same bull that happened last season. The three more wins than the Knicks put us just out of reach of the 4th pick and we ended up with Mario Hezonja. The same exact garbage is going to happen again this season. The Sixers are going to pick ahead of us in a strong draft while already having Embiid and Simmons. We're basically hosed. But at least we got those 7 extra wins, right Anti Tankers? I hope you guys like supporting a mediocre treadmill team.

100%

[Nemesis21]

We lost, Philly lost. We really need them to beat the Knicks, and us lose to Pistons. Starting to think about a few wins the last few weeks, that we really didn't need.


Top 4 pick

to make it worse, if we lost 2 of the games we won, we'd tie/pass the Lakers, smh. That win against the 6'ers in OT kills me.

This is the same bull that happened last season. The three more wins than the Knicks put us just out of reach of the 4th pick and we ended up with Mario Hezonja. The same exact garbage is going to happen again this season. The Sixers are going to pick ahead of us in a strong draft while already having Embiid and Simmons. We're basically hosed. But at least we got those 7 extra wins, right Anti Tankers? I hope you guys like supporting a mediocre treadmill team.

Rob shouldn't have fired JV in season, I wanted that #1 for KAT. Team went on a run of wins under Borrego and we got stuck with 5th.

[Blue_and_Whte]

[
As long as LAL loses its pick i m ok, i couldnt care less where we pick as i can t see any franchise changer in this draft (other than fultz)

not much difference between who we could pick at #2 or #6

#crackkills

[Blue_and_Whte]

to make it worse, if we lost 2 of the games we won, we'd tie/pass the Lakers, smh. That win against the 6'ers in OT kills me.

This is the same bull that happened last season. The three more wins than the Knicks put us just out of reach of the 4th pick and we ended up with Mario Hezonja. The same exact garbage is going to happen again this season. The Sixers are going to pick ahead of us in a strong draft while already having Embiid and Simmons. We're basically hosed. But at least we got those 7 extra wins, right Anti Tankers? I hope you guys like supporting a mediocre treadmill team.

Rob shouldn't have fired JV in season, I wanted that #1 for KAT. Team went on a run of wins under Borrego and we got stuck with 5th.

Yup, and in all likelihood it'll happen again. We're going to get stuck with De'Aaron Fox at 6 or some bull as we watch the Philly, and Phoenix add to an already good young roster, but we have to also watch the Celtics get a #1 pick. Makes me sick to my stomach.

[cedric76]

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

In your dream maybe. Not in the reality world. Stop believing the hype.
I guess you were on of the gullible that thought Mario would be the white mamba.
Fultz maybe.
Have hope Isaac could be one too.

The rest? A poor version of Jason kidd isn't a franchise player to me

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

The chances that whoever we draft in the top 5 being better than a majority of players on this team in 2-3 years is extremely high.

These players are 18/19 how do you know ?

he said FRANCHISE PLAYERS, there is a big difference between being a Franchise player and a being a starter on your team

[VFX]

In your dream maybe. Not in the reality world. Stop believing the hype.
I guess you were on of the gullible that thought Mario would be the white mamba.
Fultz maybe.
Have hope Isaac could be one too.

The rest? A poor version of Jason kidd isn't a franchise player to me

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

The chances that whoever we draft in the top 5 being better than a majority of players on this team in 2-3 years is extremely high.

These players are 18/19 how do you know ?

he said FRANCHISE PLAYERS, there is a big difference between being a Franchise player and a being a starter on your team

Right... you still don't know.

Paul George college stats - 15.7 P_ 6.7 R_ 2.4 A
Jayson Tatum college stats -16.8 P_ 7.3R_ 2 A

Or is Paul George not a "franchise player"?

I'm not saying I know Tatum or any other player will be a franchise player... just that you don't know either.

[pepe1991]

You do realize that the projected top 5 picks are considered franchise players?

Don't belive a hype. They say it every year before a draft. If this draft has two future allstars you can consider it a good draft.

Granted, there will be busts, that's a given but not every draft is considered deep drafts. The year we drafted Dipo, so many analysts stated that it was a tremendously weak draft. I think there are going to be some great players out the gate in this draft by the looks of all the reports.

and 2014 was hyped to be better than 1996 . Last year Ingram was being compared to Durant.
You could actually be right and this draft can really have 5 stars in top 5 picks. But most of time prospects get overhyped and overrated based on what they can become, not what they are now. Just remember Gordon is new Blake Griffin, Hezonja is new Klay....

[cedric76]

The chances that whoever we draft in the top 5 being better than a majority of players on this team in 2-3 years is extremely high.

These players are 18/19 how do you know ?

he said FRANCHISE PLAYERS, there is a big difference between being a Franchise player and a being a starter on your team

Right... you still don't know.

Paul George college stats - 15.7 P_ 6.7 R_ 2.4 A
Jayson Tatum college stats -16.8 P_ 7.3R_ 2 A

Or is Paul George not a "franchise player"?

I'm not saying I know Tatum or any other player will be a franchise player... just that you don't know either.

I like my odds when I say that the top 5 players won't be 5 franchise players

If he had said 2 of the top 5 maybe, but 5 ??

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

[Skin]

I want to point a red laser in the eyes of the Magic players right now.

[The Other Ankle]

Was switching back and forth between the box scores for the two games and found identical scores of 96-94 in favor of Detroit and Philly with 6-ish minutes to go...

[Magic_Johnny12]

OF COURSE we win when Philly wins as well!!

[Magic_Johnny12]

Spoke too soon. Wow.

[Magic_Johnny12]

The absolute worst result that could happen HAPPENED and this will bite us in the ass once again.