Official Speculation Thread ‘17-18’: XVIII: The Long Wait Continues

[pepe1991]

I don’t know if Vuc is soft- he may just be slow-footed. The first few years, Vuc pounded inside like McHale- nothing soft about that. I have to believe it’s schemes that dragged him out to the elbow and then to the perimeter, magnifying his weaknesses.
Evan has been the LEAST soft player on the Magic for years...he may not work hard on D, but he plays O with more heart and courage than anyone on team. I’ve seen him drive (selfishly?) gets smashed and hop up pissed off twice as many times as any other ( with or without the call- he’s “cursed” by being the only legit 3pt threat, so he needs to sit outside. He has all the tools to get 20ppg. Bamba ( despite his Gobert projections) could be the softest big in the league- unless he’s being ordered to hoist 3’s and stay outside where it’s safe. He’s a very nice, articulate young man who happens to have a twelve foot wingspan- I hope he has the killer instinct to own the lane...I hope I’m wrong long-term but Bamba, Isaac, and AG don’t mix it up inside often enough to be called anything but finesse players (yet)...When AG gets in there and pogo sticks like Rodman before smashing on someone...it’s the greatest, but Clifford needs to get him in there, angry, and above the rim more often. Last year’s perimeter dance is very limiting.

Yea i also belive slow footed is mistaken by soft and low effort a lot.
I know from stupid personal experience, when i played as kid i was uber competitive and borderline boring defender, but with some injuries and getting flat out fat at age of 20 i simply could not move fast enough, to the point where lot of my friends said i don't even try. I was like MFers i do, i just can't.

Vučević, much like Cousins, simply isn't athleticlly gifted. Cousins has embarrassing vertical, yet people expect them to be like Jordan or Capela or Tyson Chandler who have unreal foot speed for a people of their size.

I don't think that there was any player on Magic roster that always have his best on defense since this rebuild started, and you really can't blame them for that, not Gordon, not vučević, not anybody. When you are down by 25 , for 5th game in a row, your mind simply tells you to show middle finger to everybody.

[OrlChamps2030]

NIkola Vučević worst defensvie rating as Magic player - 105, best 103
Worst DBPM -0,1 , best + 2,3

Gordon
worst def rating 111, best 105
worst DBPM -0,4 ,best 1,2


So at his worst season Vučević impact on defense by def rating was as bad as Gordon in his best.


I said Gordon is medicore to bad defnder whole his career apart from second season. When you isolate his 2# season, he is career -0,2 DBPM, - 2,0 OBPM, 108,33 DEF rating player on 52% TS on offense.

Easly most overrated Magic player by Magic fans in last decade.
Don't @me.


Evan is having bad preseason.
PRE season.
there is good reason why nobody overreacts.
Guy has been best Magic offensive player for 4 years. Even when Oladipo was here he was better than him, Dipo just found another gear on another team later.

I admit I never should have grouped in Fournier with Vucevic, so I apologize for that.

Vucevic is definitely a soft euro in the same vein that Big Baby is a fat American, and Bamba is a skinny African dude. Don’t really get the problem here.

Btw nobody still didn't defined "soft" , does that mean being white and having family ?

I see you trying to bait with legit racism here, random guys on the internet don’t bother me though


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[PrimeThyme]

Soul, i don't even like Vučević, but not because of his skin color or place of birth or label him as "soft" because he is that.
I find him being-starting level C on team that should rebuild and has no need to keep him.
I never even called him great at anything. Ever.


Evan is really good shooter that could find playing time on most contenders. But. To me he is overpayed for what he is. I would prefer him on $12M contract over $17M one.

Over time i get fed up with Vuc- Evan offense ( bromance ) and when i reach that point i express my feelings toward that. On OPP i was almost banned for saying Evan and Skiles should get a room

Imo most posters today, entering 2018-19 season are fed up with Vučević because they view him as some bad guy that takes PT from Bamba. And i can understand that, but in same time i can understand why somebody like Clifford will try to win as much games this year and therfore needs Vučević as starter, on team with limited offense.


As from my "Euro bias" , only Euro player i ever loved was Petrovic, my hometown hero and reason i started watching basketball. I like Šarić because i know him in "real" life. I could not give a flying F about 99,99% of others . I just can't stand "Euro soft " crap. Is Giannis soft or it does not count for ones who are black? Is Gobert soft? Marc Gasol was DPOY, not something you can achive as soft .

I agree that defense is hard to measure, but over 4 years looking at defensive rating of one player, that never gets any better is telling. Problem with Magic C defense, no matter who plays C , is fact that Payton , Watson, Jennings now DJ Augustin are so damn terrible that they make it impossible for Ibaka, Bamba, Vučević, Biyombo ,Birch or whoever plays C at that moment to recover. Not to mention that most people have unrealistic expetations from switch defense where they think "can guard" and "should guard " are same thing. Last year i was loosing my mind with Vogel defense because players were switching into missmatches like fools for no good reason other than " Vogel is modern, he plays switch defense" .

Ibaka in 2015 was player who defended most iso plays in nba, and did admirable job. Goes to Magic and can't defend? Why? Well , going from Westbrook to Payton does that to a player. Still looks solid ( not as great as with OKC ) with Lowry.

Couldn't disagree more with this statement. Defensive rating is a flawed stat and tells you more about the overall team defense and group of players on the floor at once than it does about one individual and as people have pointed out here many times there are way too many flaws in the DBPM stat to solely use those two things in an argument to say that Vuc has been the better defender.

Both DBPM and defensive rating are calculated by box score data and any NBA analytic person will tell you how very misleading that can be when determining how much impact a player is actually having as things that determine actual impact on defense (not blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), can't be measured or calculated. Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by a team's defensive efficiency, and a big man will always generally have the higher Drtg versus a player that plays more on the perimeter that doesn't get as many rebounds or blocks. It is just a flawed stat overall and to say that is what proves that Vuc has been a better defender is just flat out wrong.

Each of the last two years AG has been our best individual defender and it's really not even arguable (just look at his defended field goal percentage these last two years, him being in the 98th percentile in post defense, and how well he has faired against the better offensive players in this league). He hasn't just been our best individual defender, but by league standards, he has been a very good one (outstanding one when engaged) and more than just mediocre.

His poor defense has really been over exaggerated on this board the last couple years, especially last year, and I think with people using stats like DBPM and Drtg that Vuc's has been over exaggerated (even though outside of him getting constantly burned in the PnR he has been a decent defender these last two years especially in 2016 where he was much better). I get how people, including myself at times, get upset with AG when he doesn't bring his best defensively every night, particularly against lesser competition, but it's still ridiculous to say that he has been a mediocre defender or even less of a defender than Vuc.

[fklt]

all analytics people will say DBPM is flawed and will also add it's best metric we have at the moment. opposing field goal percentage or bpg is in much worse shape at detemining defensive prowess. saying its flawed is not a silver bullet that miracalously makes a person right, and it's not enough to dismiss it.

[Knightro]

all analytics people will say DBPM is flawed and will also add it's best metric we have at the moment. opposing field goal percentage or bpg is in much worse shape at detemining defensive prowess. saying its flawed is not a silver bullet that miracalously makes a person right, and it's not enough to dismiss it.

DBPM *heavily* rewards defensive rebounding for what that's worth. A defensive rebound ends an opponent's offensive possession, so it's judged very favorably in that metric.

Vucevic has always been a solid/good defensive rebounder, so his DBPM is artificially inflated.

[fklt]

all analytics people will say DBPM is flawed and will also add it's best metric we have at the moment. opposing field goal percentage or bpg is in much worse shape at detemining defensive prowess. saying its flawed is not a silver bullet that miracalously makes a person right, and it's not enough to dismiss it.

DBPM *heavily* rewards defensive rebounding for what that's worth. A defensive rebound ends an opponent's offensive possession, so it's judged very favorably in that metric.

Vucevic has always been a solid/good defensive rebounder, so his DBPM is artificially inflated.

DRPM rewards defensive rebounds because regressions show it highly correlates with good defensive results. there is nothing artificial about it.

also vuc's best defensive rebounding season was the one with the worst DBPM, and his worst rebounding season was the best one. which should tell you there is much more to having a good DBPM than just good rebounding.

[Knightro]

DRPM rewards defensive rebounds because regressions show it highly correlates with good defensive results. there is nothing artificial about it.

also vuc's best defensive rebounding season was the one with the worst DBPM, and his worst rebounding season was the best one. which should tell you there is much more to having a good DBPM than just good rebounding.

Of course there's more to it than defensive rebounding. Not arguing that. But DBPM is literally just BPM - OBPM.

The inventor of the stat himself warns to not take DBPM numbers too seriously.

"Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender."

[Blue_and_Whte]

"Soft Euro" is borderline racist , what's difference between that and "greedy jews" , or assuming all asian people know how to fight.
I won't even write down what's narrative for black athletes because i have zero desire to get banned but yea, we all know what is.

and for some people, complete spoiler alert : There are nba players who are both, black and from Europe.

Instead of Indian we should use Native American. Instead of Black we should use African American.

So what is the correct phrase in this case

Fluffy Euro? Cuddly Euro?

Really dude? And you are one who acts all smart when White i Blue talks about his right wing policy in US?

Hey.... HEY...Dont drag me into this hot mess.

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[pepe1991]

Def rating is closest thing to reliable data for defense.

Def FG% is worthless.
By that data last year Rubio and Pat Beverly were some of the worst defenders in whole league.
Who was elite?



This guy.

Let's also point out that data where McCullum and Ish Smith are better than Lebron should never be trusted.
Actually Ish by a wide margin.

As i said, Gordon was only actually good defender in second year. In all others there is no proof of claims he is great.

Lot of writers ( Adam Formal ;Dan Favale even Zach Lowe) lot of times pointed out that his he has overall medicore merics and nobody is ever sure should he defend bigs or wings.
There are times when he is locked in and plays hard, but there are games where like that one when Giannis made him his B ( 10-15 from the floor, pretty much all on Gordon)

Watch on YouTube

[PennytoShaq]

AG has the potential to be an elite defender according to Clifford. He believes he will do it this year.

Evan was never even brought up in that conversation.

[PrimeThyme]

Def rating is closest thing to reliable data for defense.

Def FG% is worthless.
By that data last year Rubio and Pat Beverly were some of the worst defenders in whole league.
Who was elite?



This guy.

Let's also point out that data where McCullum and Ish Smith are better than Lebron should never be trusted.
Actually Ish by a wide margin.

As i said, Gordon was only actually good defender in second year. In all others there is no proof of claims he is great.

Lot of writers ( Adam Formal ;Dan Favale even Zach Lowe) lot of times pointed out that his he has overall medicore merics and nobody is ever sure should he defend bigs or wings.
There are times when he is locked in and plays hard, but there are games where like that one when Giannis made him his B ( 10-15 from the floor, pretty much all on Gordon)

Watch on YouTube

Def rating is closest thing to reliable data for defense.

Just saying this without anything to actually back this statement doesn't make it true. Defensive rating is heavily influenced by team defense. Thats why you see 4 Philly players and 4 Boston players making up the top 10 last year. Players on great defensive teams, as a result, have great defensive ratings. It isn't reliable enough on an individual level to determine the impact a player is having with it.

There are the exceptions and certain flaws to Dfg, Dfg percentage, Fg % etc but for the most part there is a reason why the players that are considered the best defenders in the league (Embiid, Giannis, Davis, Leonard, etc) show up at the top of it every year. For me, combining that with how players consistently did against some of the tougher offensive matchups in the league paints a better picture for how good a defender a player is on an individual level.

I'm not claiming that Gordon has been a great defender these last two years, but I am definitely making the claim that he hasn't been nearly as bad as people have claimed and is not a mediocre one. Defensive impact is one of the hardest things to measure due to limitations that things like BPM and D rtg have so this argument is difficult to have based soley off of those things. There is alot of crucial things that will never show up on a box score such as positioning, communication, etc that play a big part in how good a defender is.

[VFX]

On another note, I know it’s extremely early for predictions, but who is everyone going to be monitoring this season for the draft should Orlando exceed expectations and not get a top 6 pick. Assuming no major roster moves are made.

Nassir Little - North Carolina (possibly gone)
Romeo Langford -Indiana (possibly gone)
Quentin Grimes - Kansas
Darius Garland - Vanderbilt
Sekou Doumbouya- International( France)
Keldon Johnson - Kentucky
Carsen Edwards- Purdue
Tre Jones - Duke

These are the guys I could see that could help the Magic via draft. There are always late additions that appear from nowhere like Tre Young. Then again, what’s the point WeHam will just draft Bol Bol as we all know.

[PrimeThyme]

On another note, I know it’s extremely early for predictions, but who is everyone going to be monitoring this season for the draft should Orlando exceed expectations and not get a top 6 pick. Assuming no major roster moves are made.

Nassir Little - North Carolina (possibly gone)
Romeo Langford -Indiana (possibly gone)
Quentin Grimes - Kansas
Darius Garland - Vanderbilt
Sekou Doumbouya- International( France)
Keldon Johnson - Kentucky
Carsen Edwards- Purdue
Tre Jones - Duke

These are the guys I could see that could help the Magic via draft. There are always late additions that appear from nowhere like Tre Young. Then again, what’s the point WeHam will just draft Bol Bol as we all know.

You know, even if we have the 6th pick im higher on Langford than I am most guys in this draft. His elite 3pt shooting ability is something I think we desperately need. I know that there is a lot of talk on this board already about Reddish, but for a team that already lacks so many shooters, I don't have quite the appeal to him that everyone else seems to. I will say that Reddish does seem to have an 'it' factor to him. His alpha personality and great defensive instincts would fit in well with Isaac and Bamba. So i'm definitely keeping my mind open this year, and reserve the right to change my mind about him once the season starts.

Watch on YouTube

[VFX]

On another note, I know it’s extremely early for predictions, but who is everyone going to be monitoring this season for the draft should Orlando exceed expectations and not get a top 6 pick. Assuming no major roster moves are made.

Nassir Little - North Carolina (possibly gone)
Romeo Langford -Indiana (possibly gone)
Quentin Grimes - Kansas
Darius Garland - Vanderbilt
Sekou Doumbouya- International( France)
Keldon Johnson - Kentucky
Carsen Edwards- Purdue
Tre Jones - Duke

These are the guys I could see that could help the Magic via draft. There are always late additions that appear from nowhere like Tre Young. Then again, what’s the point WeHam will just draft Bol Bol as we all know.

You know, even if we have the 6th pick im higher on Langford than I am most guys in this draft. His elite 3pt shooting ability is something I think we desperately need. I know that there is a lot of talk on this board already about Reddish, but for a team that already lacks so many shooters, I don't have quite the appeal to him that everyone else seems to. I will say that Reddish does seem to have an 'it' factor to him. His alpha personality and great defensive instincts would fit in well with Isaac and Bamba. So i'm definitely keeping my mind open this year, and reserve the right to change my mind about him once the season starts.

Watch on YouTube

I won’t be missing any games this season as a diehard Duke fan. Barrett and Langford are options 1a and 1b for me, but I’m not getting my hopes up with Orlando again.

[PrimeThyme]

On another note, I know it’s extremely early for predictions, but who is everyone going to be monitoring this season for the draft should Orlando exceed expectations and not get a top 6 pick. Assuming no major roster moves are made.

Nassir Little - North Carolina (possibly gone)
Romeo Langford -Indiana (possibly gone)
Quentin Grimes - Kansas
Darius Garland - Vanderbilt
Sekou Doumbouya- International( France)
Keldon Johnson - Kentucky
Carsen Edwards- Purdue
Tre Jones - Duke

These are the guys I could see that could help the Magic via draft. There are always late additions that appear from nowhere like Tre Young. Then again, what’s the point WeHam will just draft Bol Bol as we all know.

You know, even if we have the 6th pick im higher on Langford than I am most guys in this draft. His elite 3pt shooting ability is something I think we desperately need. I know that there is a lot of talk on this board already about Reddish, but for a team that already lacks so many shooters, I don't have quite the appeal to him that everyone else seems to. I will say that Reddish does seem to have an 'it' factor to him. His alpha personality and great defensive instincts would fit in well with Isaac and Bamba. So i'm definitely keeping my mind open this year, and reserve the right to change my mind about him once the season starts.

Watch on YouTube

I won’t be missing any games this season as a diehard Duke fan. Barrett and Langford are options 1a and 1b for me, but I’m not getting my hopes up with Orlando again.

Thats kind of exactly where I'm at right now. Even though I know that WeHam has to be salivating at the idea of drafting Reddish (6-7 with a 7-1 wingspan). Regardless, Duke is a must watch team this year. Easily 3 top 5 draft picks on their team.

[NickAnderson]

Barrett reminds me of Shaun Livingston with a better 3 point shot

[Skin]

I don’t know if Vuc is soft- he may just be slow-footed. The first few years, Vuc pounded inside like McHale- nothing soft about that. I have to believe it’s schemes that dragged him out to the elbow and then to the perimeter, magnifying his weaknesses.
Evan has been the LEAST soft player on the Magic for years...he may not work hard on D, but he plays O with more heart and courage than anyone on team. I’ve seen him drive (selfishly?) gets smashed and hop up pissed off twice as many times as any other ( with or without the call- he’s “cursed” by being the only legit 3pt threat, so he needs to sit outside. He has all the tools to get 20ppg. Bamba ( despite his Gobert projections) could be the softest big in the league- unless he’s being ordered to hoist 3’s and stay outside where it’s safe. He’s a very nice, articulate young man who happens to have a twelve foot wingspan- I hope he has the killer instinct to own the lane...I hope I’m wrong long-term but Bamba, Isaac, and AG don’t mix it up inside often enough to be called anything but finesse players (yet)...When AG gets in there and pogo sticks like Rodman before smashing on someone...it’s the greatest, but Clifford needs to get him in there, angry, and above the rim more often. Last year’s perimeter dance is very limiting.

Yea i also belive slow footed is mistaken by soft and low effort a lot.
I know from stupid personal experience, when i played as kid i was uber competitive and borderline boring defender, but with some injuries and getting flat out fat at age of 20 i simply could not move fast enough, to the point where lot of my friends said i don't even try. I was like MFers i do, i just can't.

Vučević, much like Cousins, simply isn't athleticlly gifted. Cousins has embarrassing vertical, yet people expect them to be like Jordan or Capela or Tyson Chandler who have unreal foot speed for a people of their size.

I don't think that there was any player on Magic roster that always have his best on defense since this rebuild started, and you really can't blame them for that, not Gordon, not vučević, not anybody. When you are down by 25 , for 5th game in a row, your mind simply tells you to show middle finger to everybody.

Nope. Gortat is slow footed, but tough as nails.

[PennytoShaq]

In 4 games, Frazier is averaging 7 points a game and shooting 58.8 %from the field.

I think Matic may have said this, but Weltman’s Toronto fingerprints are all over this bench. It’s a very similar collection of players, and they are really effective on defense and ball movement.

[rcklsscognition]

I couldn't care less how tough someone is. It's basketball not MMA.

[YosemiteSam]

OK, with preseason basically over, updated thoughts on how the rotation will look (assuming start of season and perfect health)?

PG: DJ 25 min, Grant 23 min
SG: Fournier 30 min Ross 10 min, Iwundu 5 min, Grant 3 min
SF: Isaac 20 min, Simmons 15 min, Ross 10 min
PF: Gordon 33 min, Isaac 8 min, Martin 3 min
C: Vuc 28 min, Bamba 20 min

Roster DNPs: Frazier, Briscoe, Birch, Moz

Note: Foul trouble may impact total minutes for Isaac and Bamba - could play less if foul rate from preseason continues