What's next?

basketballRob · Post #181 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:29 pm

I think Bol will get traded at the draft. He can't stay in front of anyone on the perimeter. I'd rather replace him with Walker

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Audi · Post #182 » by **Audi** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:35 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:
Audi wrote:If we want to say Fultz isn't contributing to winning basketball, neither is anyone else on the team. So like...BlOw iT uP, right?
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -1.2 with Markelle Fultz this season. -5.7 without (21 games)
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -4.1 with Gary Harris this season. -1.5 without (29 games)
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -3.0 with Franz Wagner this season. +11.2 without (1 game)
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -2.7 with Paolo Banchero this season. -3.3 without (7 games)
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -1.7 with Wendell Carter Jr. this season. -4.9 without (20 games)
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -1.7 with Cole Anthony this season.-4.9 without (20 games)
The Orlando Magic have a net rating of -2.6 with Jalen Suggs this season. -3.1 without (25 games)

Why would use the data comparing the games they have played in with compared to the ones they haven't instead of the much more relevant one about the actual minutes they are on the court?

Franz's data is the best example why your approach is completely flawed. He missed one game which we won. But over the whole season we have been way better when he has been on the court (1.1 net rating) compared to -10.4 when he is not. That's 11.5 on/off rating, which is elite. He's been by far the biggest reason for the positive results. In most games we've won it's been the bench with Franz which has made a decisive run. And when the starters have played without Franz, they have usually been pretty bad. It's especially noticaeble with Fultz and Banchero, who have played 367 minutes without Franz and the result is a horrendous -16.01 net rating.

I didn't post to compare games without, it was just in my copy/paste line. I assumed everyone here would be able to tell +11.2 without Franz makes no sense and it just being a one game sample explains why.

Post #183 » by **Knightro** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:37 pm

basketballRob wrote:I think Bol will get traded at the draft. He can't stay in front of anyone on the perimeter. I'd rather replace him with Walker

As fun as he can be at times with his Bollercoaster stuff offensively, he's an absolutely awful defender.

Way too slow laterally to defend with any sort of change-of-direction ability in a 1-on-1 or switch situation.

But too physically weak with too high of a center of gravity to avoid getting pushed around near the basket.

He's strictly a weakside/helpside shot blocker and nothing more than that defensively.

Post #184 » by **Knightro** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:43 pm

Audi wrote:I didn't post to compare games without, it was just in my copy/paste line. I assumed everyone here would be able to tell +11.2 without Franz makes no sense and it just being a one game sample explains why.

Just so I have this correct, you're citing what the Magic's team NET ratings are when a player plays or doesn't play in a game, but you're not drilling down to the actual minutes when those players are actually on the basketball court?

JoshuaPotter · Post #185 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:53 pm

Spoiler:

JoshuaPotter · Post #186 » by **JoshuaPotter** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:54 pm

Some of these stats are like watching a train wreck. I probably shouldn't, but I just cannot help myself.

Audi · Post #187 » by **Audi** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:11 pm

Knightro wrote:
Audi wrote:I didn't post to compare games without, it was just in my copy/paste line. I assumed everyone here would be able to tell +11.2 without Franz makes no sense and it just being a one game sample explains why.

Just so I have this correct, you're citing what the Magic's team NET ratings are when a player plays or doesn't play in a game, but you're not drilling down to the actual minutes when those players are actually on the basketball court?

Right. The difference between the teams OFF and DEF in games with and without said player. I'm just highlighting that it's a team game and we aren't a winning team, so attributing wins or losses to any particular player is a waste of time.

Advanced stats say alot and at the same time say nothing. If we took it all at face value, we just basically gifted LAL our best player.

pepe1991 · Post #188 » by **pepe1991** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:51 pm

Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:I think Bol will get traded at the draft. He can't stay in front of anyone on the perimeter. I'd rather replace him with Walker

As fun as he can be at times with his Bollercoaster stuff offensively, he's an absolutely awful defender.

Way too slow laterally to defend with any sort of change-of-direction ability in a 1-on-1 or switch situation.

But too physically weak with too high of a center of gravity to avoid getting pushed around near the basket.

He's strictly a weakside/helpside shot blocker and nothing more than that defensively.

Called it back when there were some outrageus Victor W. comparisons.

His defense is just something else. I mean, i understand being 7'2 means you won't be fast, but his reaction time is very poor for nba player. He doesn't have latheral quickness, he covers for all his mistakes by lenght, at least ones that he menages to recover.

Post #189 » by **Knightro** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:09 pm

Audi wrote:Right. The difference between the teams OFF and DEF in games with and without said player. I'm just highlighting that it's a team game and we aren't a winning team, so attributing wins or losses to any particular player is a waste of time.

Advanced stats say alot and at the same time say nothing. If we took it all at face value, we just basically gifted LAL our best player.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Post #190 » by **eyriq** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:22 pm

How anyone thinks that there is a data driven argument to support Fultz is beyond me. There is none. I'm sad there isn't. He passes the eye test so gracefully, to the point that I've, on multiple occasions, thought he should be part of our core. I either need to learn how to watch basketball or the stats are wrong and we just aren't analyzing the data in the right way. I'll trust our data analysis more than my eye test 10/10 times. Now if WeHam resigns him and we go all in on him then hey, maybe there is something missing from the data analysis we have access too. But I doubt it.

anothermagicfan · Post #191 » by **anothermagicfan** » Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:57 pm

eyriq wrote:How anyone thinks that there is a data driven argument to support Fultz is beyond me. There is none. I'm sad there isn't. He passes the eye test so gracefully, to the point that I've, on multiple occasions, thought he should be part of our core. I either need to learn how to watch basketball or the stats are wrong and we just aren't analyzing the data in the right way. I'll trust our data analysis more than my eye test 10/10 times. Now if WeHam resigns him and we go all in on him then hey, maybe there is something missing from the data analysis we have access too. But I doubt it.

The stats are certainly not in favor of Fultz. I wish they were but there is context to consider. It's not like he went through a healthy training camp with the guys he's playing with. Last year he was limited and coming off the bench so for the most part he's learning how to play with the other starters on the fly. He's had some time now with Paulo and Franz and Wendell so hopefully we will see some significant improvement to finish the year but who knows.

The other thing is what exactly is the magics game plan been this year? Has the focus been on Fultz having the ball and running the offense and creating for others? Or has there been more focus on giving the ball to Paulo and Franz to see what they can create?

Skin · Post #192 » by **Skin** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:48 am

basketballRob wrote:I think Bol will get traded at the draft. He can't stay in front of anyone on the perimeter. I'd rather replace him with Walker

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I don't see them moving on from Bol. Just need to move him off guarding wings.

Post #193 » by **Knightro** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:50 am

eyriq wrote:How anyone thinks that there is a data driven argument to support Fultz is beyond me. There is none. I'm sad there isn't. He passes the eye test so gracefully, to the point that I've, on multiple occasions, thought he should be part of our core. I either need to learn how to watch basketball or the stats are wrong and we just aren't analyzing the data in the right way. I'll trust our data analysis more than my eye test 10/10 times. Now if WeHam resigns him and we go all in on him then hey, maybe there is something missing from the data analysis we have access too. But I doubt it.

So I actually think there's an extremely viable path for Fultz to be a highly productive member of an NBA rotation. The reason I think that is because he showed it last year.

As he was coming back from his ACL injury last season, I think he was in the absolute perfect role for himself.

A tight 20 MPG. Pretty much all of it came playing with and against backups where his lack of shooting wasn't a terrible detriment. And he came into games just sprinting the ball up and down the court, popping middys and zipping passes to shooters for open 3s.

His RAPTOR numbers backed it up. +0.6 OFF, +1.6 DEF, +2.2 TOTAL.

I just don't think backup PG (and more specifically backup money) is a role he's necessarily dying to accept.

Post #194 » by **Knightro** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:55 am

Skin wrote:I don't see them moving on from Bol. Just need to move him off guarding wings.

Therein lies the problem.

If he can't guard wings and he really can't guard any bigs with strength either- than who can he guard?

The answer is non-dangerous forwards, which is mostly going to be guys that don't really have juice off the bounce, but the Magic have Banchero and Isaac sucking up those PF minutes.

I just don't see a place for Bol here. Especially if the Magic add another wing type in the draft.

davey_wavy · Post #195 » by **davey_wavy** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:58 am

What’s next? Some sleep. Gotta work tomorrow

Skin · Post #196 » by **Skin** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:40 am

Knightro wrote:
Skin wrote:I don't see them moving on from Bol. Just need to move him off guarding wings.

Therein lies the problem.

If he can't guard wings and he really can't guard any bigs with strength either- than who can he guard?

The answer is non-dangerous forwards, which is mostly going to be guys that don't really have juice off the bounce, but the Magic have Banchero and Isaac sucking up those PF minutes.

I just don't see a place for Bol here. Especially if the Magic add another wing type in the draft.

There's a sickness that happens on this board all too often. Several good games in a row makes a player loved and adored. Several bad games in a row defines a player bad forever.

Bol has ridden that wave here in this forum this season.

One of the byproducts of fielding a line up of Tall Ball is that it is going to expose some weaknesses. Bigs getting beat by speed is one of them. On the other hand, let's not pretend Bol doesn't defend at all. Jeez, you guys make it seem like he is a complete liability on defense. Bol has shown the ability to use his length on the perimeter to defend 3pt shots consistently. He also has been a rim protector. From a tweet ealier in the year... "Players have taken 96 shots vs Bol Bol this season. He has blocked 25 of them (26%)."

He has the ability to switch on defense and cause havoc with his length.

Read on Twitter

I'd argue that his ability to funnel wings into the paint because they are scared of taking 3s against him is more valuable than giving up the points inside. Especially since he does have some ability to recover.

https://streamable.com/uqenqb

Getting Bol was a steal and an unearthing of a gem. We need to collect more of them. When we have a more complete roster, his deficiencies can be masked. Right now, we don't have a very good post defender. Getting one would be huge. Our goal going forward has to be around roster construction. Not overwriting players.

zaymon · Post #197 » by **zaymon** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:08 am

Skin wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Skin wrote:I don't see them moving on from Bol. Just need to move him off guarding wings.

Therein lies the problem.

If he can't guard wings and he really can't guard any bigs with strength either- than who can he guard?

The answer is non-dangerous forwards, which is mostly going to be guys that don't really have juice off the bounce, but the Magic have Banchero and Isaac sucking up those PF minutes.

I just don't see a place for Bol here. Especially if the Magic add another wing type in the draft.

There's a sickness that happens on this board all too often. Several good games in a row makes a player loved and adored. Several bad games in a row defines a player bad forever.

Bol has ridden that wave here in this forum this season.

One of the byproducts of fielding a line up of Tall Ball is that it is going to expose some weaknesses. Bigs getting beat by speed is one of them. On the other hand, let's not pretend Bol doesn't defend at all. Jeez, you guys make it seem like he is a complete liability on defense. Bol has shown the ability to use his length on the perimeter to defend 3pt shots consistently. He also has been a rim protector. From a tweet ealier in the year... "Players have taken 96 shots vs Bol Bol this season. He has blocked 25 of them (26%)."

He has the ability to switch on defense and cause havoc with his length.

Read on Twitter

I'd argue that his ability to funnel wings into the paint because they are scared of taking 3s against him is more valuable than giving up the points inside. Especially since he does have some ability to recover.

https://streamable.com/uqenqb

Getting Bol was a steal and an unearthing of a gem. We need to collect more of them. When we have a more complete roster, his deficiencies can be masked. Right now, we don't have a very good post defender. Getting one would be huge. Our goal going forward has to be around roster construction. Not overwriting players.

Some of us were down on Bol long before he started to struggle on offense. His low foot speed, build and awareness are not looking promising for impactful nba player.

Doncic is good opponent for Bol. He is not fast and Bol is so slow he cant even react to his fakes and his lentgh bother Luka. In the end its just one clip and Doncic would annihilitr Bol with time using his strentgh.

Bol was a good bet but i dont know how much we can benefit from having him. He is a freak but propably not a rotation player. Maybe someone will pay us for his upside.

Skin · Post #198 » by **Skin** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:12 am

zaymon wrote:
Skin wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Therein lies the problem.

If he can't guard wings and he really can't guard any bigs with strength either- than who can he guard?

The answer is non-dangerous forwards, which is mostly going to be guys that don't really have juice off the bounce, but the Magic have Banchero and Isaac sucking up those PF minutes.

I just don't see a place for Bol here. Especially if the Magic add another wing type in the draft.

There's a sickness that happens on this board all too often. Several good games in a row makes a player loved and adored. Several bad games in a row defines a player bad forever.

Bol has ridden that wave here in this forum this season.

One of the byproducts of fielding a line up of Tall Ball is that it is going to expose some weaknesses. Bigs getting beat by speed is one of them. On the other hand, let's not pretend Bol doesn't defend at all. Jeez, you guys make it seem like he is a complete liability on defense. Bol has shown the ability to use his length on the perimeter to defend 3pt shots consistently. He also has been a rim protector. From a tweet ealier in the year... "Players have taken 96 shots vs Bol Bol this season. He has blocked 25 of them (26%)."

He has the ability to switch on defense and cause havoc with his length.

Read on Twitter

I'd argue that his ability to funnel wings into the paint because they are scared of taking 3s against him is more valuable than giving up the points inside. Especially since he does have some ability to recover.

https://streamable.com/uqenqb

Getting Bol was a steal and an unearthing of a gem. We need to collect more of them. When we have a more complete roster, his deficiencies can be masked. Right now, we don't have a very good post defender. Getting one would be huge. Our goal going forward has to be around roster construction. Not overwriting players.

Some of us were down on Bol long before he started to struggle on offense. His low foot speed, build and awareness are not looking promising for impactful nba player.

Doncic is good opponent for Bol. He is not fast and Bol is so slow he cant even react to his fakes and his lentgh bother Luka. In the end its just one clip and Doncic would annihilitr Bol with time using his strentgh.

Bol was a good bet but i dont know how much we can benefit from having him. He is a freak but propably not a rotation player. Maybe someone will pay us for his upside.

He's a bench player who can give us a boost in spurts. There really shouldn't be a big fuss about his weaknesses. We could do a lot worse

zaymon · Post #199 » by **zaymon** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:17 am

Skin wrote:He's a bench player who can give us a boost in spurts. There really shouldn't be a big fuss about his weaknesses. We could do a lot worse

Sure, but i dont know if he is even in the rotation when we are healthy. JI will take his minutes. Better to trade him and get some value.

VFX · Post #200 » by **VFX** » Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:50 pm

zaymon wrote:
Skin wrote:He's a bench player who can give us a boost in spurts. There really shouldn't be a big fuss about his weaknesses. We could do a lot worse

Sure, but i dont know if he is even in the rotation when we are healthy. JI will take his minutes. Better to trade him and get some value.

He’s really not.

Subbing in Isaac to make up for Paolo’s defense should be the first and second option off the bench. Not a guy that scores less efficiently than Paolo.