Official Summer 2024 Magic Free Agency and Trade Ideas Thread 8.0: A Forum Divided

[eyriq]

It's bit tricky.
If you line up their stats, what execlly Paolo does better?

He averages 1,9 FGA more to put up 2,7 ppg more.
Scottie is better rebounder.
Scottie is better playmaker.
Scottie is better on ball defender.
Scottie is better off ball defender.
Scottie has way more blocks & steals.
Scottie has less turnovers on more assists.
Scottie has higher FG%
Scottie has higher 3%
Scottie is better FT shooter
Scottie has higher eFG, higher TS
Scottie's RPM is x2 of Paolo's.


Paolo has better gravity and is better scorer, but goes without saying that Paolo needs to be way better in efficiency to be considered uber- elite player and be worthy of his +30% usage.
Paolo had nice playoffs where he was best Magic player on offense, but in same time he only started playing well when Mobley was no longer on him as Cavs had to switch Mobley to C, had nobody at PF so out of nowhere Paolo was guarded by 6'4- 6'5
Okoro and deep bench players like Morris twin, Tristan Thompson etc.
While guarded by mostly Mobley, in first two games ,he shot 3-11 for 3 and had 8 assists on 15 turnovers. He also shot really well for rest of series for 3% and especially good from long mid range, not shots that normally translate well into good efficiency for longer period of time.

Next year will be interesting to see how he improves.

This comparison literally should start and end with "Paolo is the #1 option on a playoff team while Barnes couldn't win with Siakam, FVV, and OG".

There is no evidence that Barnes is a franchise player and overwhelming evidence that Paolo is.

Within the context of team success and failure you can then ask why Barnes looks so comparable on paper, without the results to show for it.

He is no franchise player 1st option because his offense are fastbreaks, putbacks, torture smaller guys in the post & spot up 3's. He got big trouble driving past a defender. Thats not a receipt for a 1st (or 2nd) option on a contender. But he is a super versatile deluxe roleplayer 3rd option. He is a 2way player unlike Paolo (even if his defense is overrated and worse than Franz because of his footspeed) with even better passing skills.

As long as Paolo is a high volume / low efficiency scorer, the difference between the two isnt big, maybe even in favor for Barnes.
I mean we are a PO team because of the No.2 defense (not much to do with Paolo) & top 5 bench (not much to do with Paolo). Our offense is 22nd and Paolo's 30% usage got a big part of it. Paolo's impact stats confirm this.
Paolo's impact is bigger than those stats show, because he is probably Top 8-10 in the leaque in drawing double/triple teams already + the top 10 FT rate & his upside is higher than Barnes because of his offensive skill set, but as long as he doesnt up his efficiency, he is not much better if at all.

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[jonbob17]

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I don’t think any one is arguing that the bench players are better than Paolo, our reserves were often better than opponents 2nd units, which added point differential (+/-) to the scoreboard .
Paolo takes a good portion of the first team’s shots and his TS% was 54%. That’s just not efficient enough. Adding talent around him and Paolo continuing to develop as a scorer and learn what good shoots are will eventually solve this.

Turnovers were kind of a problem in the playoffs too, but we were really asking a lot of him

Dude is 21. He’s great. Just not a finished product

[eyriq]

Paolo led his team to +12 and +13 win seasons, Barnes led his team to blow it up, fire the coach, and start a rebuild. Let's be real here, this isn't a close comp.

[anothermagicfan]

The Barnes being better than PB is almost like saying Tmac with the floundering Magic was a better player than Kobe in LA

[pepe1991]

Paolo led his team to +12 and +13 win seasons, Barnes led his team to blow it up, fire the coach, and start a rebuild. Let's be real here, this isn't a close comp.

Magic don't win their games on offense, kind a reverse actually. Despite their offense.

Paolo "leading offense" means much less than you think. That's why majority of advanced stats aren't kind to him.

30% usage on 54% TS in league where offense exploded to +57% TS simply isn't good enough. Case and point - Magic are worst offense to make playoffs last year.

[VFX]

Paolo is going to make a HUGE jump in 3 point shooting this year. You can hold me to that.

I'm less optimistic about Franz because he plays for the national team again. As a German its great to have him there as a Magic fan it's meh. Players skills improve in the off-season.

Franz really needs to prove the contract he just received.

He cant just skate by with OK defense and being a 1-level scorer as a max contract.

[yoyojw17]

Paolo led his team to +12 and +13 win seasons, Barnes led his team to blow it up, fire the coach, and start a rebuild. Let's be real here, this isn't a close comp.

Magic don't win their games on offense, kind a reverse actually. Despite their offense.

Paolo "leading offense" means much less than you think. That's why majority of advanced stats aren't kind to him.

30% usage on 54% TS in league where offense exploded to +57% TS simply isn't good enough. Case and point - Magic are worst offense to make playoffs last year.

He's just finishing his second year and shows that he has many talents he can develop on. Though we were a winning team.... His offrtg was lower than his defrtg

So... There is still a ways to go and build up on to truly impact our winning... Aka better decision making, efficiency and defense. Can't wait to see what leaps he make over the office season.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/banchpa01.html

[VFX]

It's bit tricky.
If you line up their stats, what execlly Paolo does better?

He averages 1,9 FGA more to put up 2,7 ppg more.
Scottie is better rebounder.
Scottie is better playmaker.
Scottie is better on ball defender.
Scottie is better off ball defender.
Scottie has way more blocks & steals.
Scottie has less turnovers on more assists.
Scottie has higher FG%
Scottie has higher 3%
Scottie is better FT shooter
Scottie has higher eFG, higher TS
Scottie's RPM is x2 of Paolo's.


Paolo has better gravity and is better scorer, but goes without saying that Paolo needs to be way better in efficiency to be considered uber- elite player and be worthy of his +30% usage.
Paolo had nice playoffs where he was best Magic player on offense, but in same time he only started playing well when Mobley was no longer on him as Cavs had to switch Mobley to C, had nobody at PF so out of nowhere Paolo was guarded by 6'4- 6'5
Okoro and deep bench players like Morris twin, Tristan Thompson etc.
While guarded by mostly Mobley, in first two games ,he shot 3-11 for 3 and had 8 assists on 15 turnovers. He also shot really well for rest of series for 3% and especially good from long mid range, not shots that normally translate well into good efficiency for longer period of time.

Next year will be interesting to see how he improves.

This comparison literally should start and end with "Paolo is the #1 option on a playoff team while Barnes couldn't win with Siakam, FVV, and OG".

There is no evidence that Barnes is a franchise player and overwhelming evidence that Paolo is.

Within the context of team success and failure you can then ask why Barnes looks so comparable on paper, without the results to show for it.

He is no franchise player 1st option because his offense are fastbreaks, putbacks, torture smaller guys in the post & spot up 3's. He got big trouble driving past a defender. Thats not a receipt for a 1st (or 2nd) option on a contender. But he is a super versatile deluxe roleplayer 3rd option. He is a 2way player unlike Paolo (even if his defense is overrated and worse than Franz because of his footspeed) with even better passing skills.

As long as Paolo is a high volume / low efficiency scorer, the difference between the two isnt big, maybe even in favor for Barnes.
I mean we are a PO team because of the No.2 defense (not much to do with Paolo) & top 5 bench (not much to do with Paolo). Our offense is 22nd and Paolo's 30% usage got a big part of it. Paolo's impact stats confirm this.
Paolo's impact is bigger than those stats show, because he is probably Top 8-10 in the leaque in drawing double/triple teams already + the rim pressure & his upside is higher than Barnes because of his offensive skill set, but as long as he doesnt up his efficiency, he is not much better if at all.

Surprising take by Zach Lowe to be honest.

He should know that A LOT of this comes down to system and not necessarily looking at two guys on a 1:1 scale thinking you are drawing major conclusions.

Despite being a full year older than Paolo, Barnes is a completely different player who went from the 3rd option to the 1st option in year 3. In fact, RJ Barrett for 32 games last season averaged more points on better fg% and 3p% than "Allstar" Barnes. Barnes STILL isnt the best player on that scrub team 25-57 team and everyone knows RJ sucks. Thats coming from a Duke fan.

Paolo is the primary option and it isn't close. He's basically 1/2 of the entire offense in year 1 & 2. There is no comparison.

Orlando's entire system circulates around Paolo. Toronto fans claim Scottie is some savant point forward but then Masai decides to pay Quickley who averages more assists and less turnovers.

SO yeah, if you want to compare Paolo on a team with ZERO options to Scottie on a team with ZERO options then you can go through that hypothetical exercise in your head. Orlando and Toronto are different teams and the comparison numbers would change significantly if they switched rosters.

Also, if you want to really add fuel to this fire...

The biggest concerns over Paolo (and his efficiency) TO ME were something to be solved based on HIS OWN ADMISSION in the post season interviews. I'll say it again... He isnt a point forward any more than Barnes is claimed. He needs a table setter to get him in better scoring positions for more efficient shots. He doesnt need to be dribbling the air out of the ball 20 feet from the basket chewing up shot clock because this FO prioritizes defense over capable offense.

[three3d]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

[eyriq]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

I'd hope so

[JoshuaPotter]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

I'd hope so

If the plan is to deep bench him in case of injury then he can do that from Osceola and be called up when the inevitable injuries happen.

With exception to practice at a so called "NBA level" I see zero benefit to him collecting DNP-CDs because he may or may not be a better option then Harris already and wont get burn because Harris is a "veteran" and we are trying to win 50+ games this season.

[JoshuaPotter]

Current thoughts about the roster

AB has no pathway to minutes unless someone is moved or injured.

Even a 3 guard 10 man rotation means Houstan or Jett are just as likely as Black.

I do not see a world where KCP + Suggs + Cole + Harris aren't the main 4 guards.

My thoughts are just very pessimistic today. The "North Star" must be code for Suggs + Paolo + Franz and nobody else.

[JoshuaPotter]

Two things have to happen for Black to become part of the "G" or 3 "G" rotation as we think about it.

Cole needs to become as good a shooter as Harris.

Black needs to outright become a better player then both Harris and or Cole. The fact that I am somehow supposed to expect Black to become this player buried on the bench and DNP-CD is just incredibly unlikely.

The likelyhood we start preseason and see Black dunking on Suggs is improbable.

[three3d]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

I'd hope so

how do you realistically think things are going to play out when we are trying to win games and give AB on the job training during games? You know his leash is going to be hella short. The SHOULD have done this with him last year but because they didn’t now I think it’s a legit option to consider. He needs A LOT of work and the freedom to learn from making mistakes in the game without being taken out right away.

[yoyojw17]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

I'd hope so

how do you realistically think things are going to play out when we are trying to win games and give AB on the job training during games? You know his leash is going to be hella short. The SHOULD have done this with him last year but because they didn’t now I think it’s a legit option to consider. He needs A LOT of work and the freedom to learn from making mistakes in the game without being taken out right away.

Actually.... i don't think it will as short as people might think. And i think they already have hella confidence in the baseline that he showed with the starting unit last year. for them .... believe they will take a step back to take a step forward. and at the same time... most of it is mitigated by the fact that..... He won't be in the starting lineup.... this year.... and maybe even going into next year as well. AB AND Jett have the time to grow.... and room has been made for them to continue doing so.

[eyriq]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

I'd hope so

how do you realistically think things are going to play out when we are trying to win games and give AB on the job training during games? You know his leash is going to be hella short. The SHOULD have done this with him last year but because they didn’t now I think it’s a legit option to consider. He needs A LOT of work and the freedom to learn from making mistakes in the game without being taken out right away.

I genuinely think AB is already good enough to start. He's that good on defense, and lineups with him in it on the whole played well.

Does that mean he's in a win-now optimized starting lineup? No.

I genuinely think he's good enough to be in the rotation. Does that mean he's in a win-now optimized rotation? YES.

So, without factoring in player development he's reasonably included in our best, most optimized rotation. His perimeter defense, spot-up shooting, and off ball IQ is already good enough.

Now once you start sprinkling in some incentives to develop the player we pick number six? It's a f****** no-brainer.

[zaymon]

Just heard the Lowe podcast. They used many words to not name Toronto a treadmill team.
They both like Barnes but they have no clue why Raptors are bad.
They like Ujiri but they cant explain his recent moves ( i think Ujiri made very bad moves for the last few years but they are scared to admit it).
The comparison between Paolo and Scottie was as detached from reality as the rest. They pictured Paolo as inefficient #1 option which i can agree, but they didnt mention Barnes led even worse offensive team than Orlando.
They mentioned about lack of guard play for Orlando but still took it against Paolo.
Zero rational arguments for taking Barnes over Banchero, it was only their personal preference ( and Lowe even mentioned Scottie is not as good of a defender as it may seem).
I see very little evidence that Scottie can be a #1 option. Cant get past anyone. Is not great in pick and roll. Sucks at isolation. Should he just bully smaller players ? It didnt work in regular season so far and i doubt it will work in the post season if he even makes it there.
Paolo>Franz>Scottie and then Suggs closing in on Barnes already but media wont tell it becouse they are scared saying anything outside consensus.

[basketballRob]

Franz with 27 through 3 quarters.

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[eyriq]

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[anothermagicfan]

Am I one of the only ones that really think AB would benefit much more starting the season playing for Osceola?

Why send AB to Osceola? He's already better than Cole. Send Cole to Osceola. He could put up 40-50 a game and his confidence could soar.