Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[The Effect]

Read on Twitter

Wow, looks like he has definitely put on at least some size this summer.

I was wondering how much longer we would have to wait this offseason to hear about one of our young players getting swole

[ezzzp]

Some people want to max Brogdon (starter or 6th man), but are not willing to offer 20M/year to Vucevic (allstar). I can't understand.

i bet a lot has to do with the position. Wing position is more critical than center in today's NBA.

The problem is he doesn't really do that in a way that's worth max $. He's not a primary or secondary level scorer:

Spoiler:

I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

Theoretically he would be great in a 3 guard rotation of Fultz/Brogdon/Fournier...BUT its reliant on Fultz becoming a starter.

PG: Fultz / Brogdon
SG: Brogdon / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Okeke
C: Bamba / Birch

On the other hand, if Fultz works then Ross + Vucevic is a more balanced attack and more realistic in free agency

PG: Fultz / DJ
SG: Ross / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Isaac / Okeke
C: Vucevic / Bamba

Basically, Brogdon doesn't fix the PG or primary option problem. The Magic's future would still be highly dependent on the Fultz mystery.

[basketballRob]

Great! I'm a big Iwundu fan.

Yes, he played well this season and improved he earned it.

very solid player and flexible defender, can rotate 1-3

I know we had a great record when he started.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[basketballRob]

Read on Twitter

Wow, looks like he has definitely put on at least some size this summer.

I was wondering how much longer we would have to wait this offseason to hear about one of our young players getting swole

My guess is that Mo won't be playing in summer league because he's in China right now.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[tiderulz]

Some people want to max Brogdon (starter or 6th man), but are not willing to offer 20M/year to Vucevic (allstar). I can't understand.

i bet a lot has to do with the position. Wing position is more critical than center in today's NBA.

The problem is he doesn't really do that in a way that's worth max $. He's not a primary or secondary level scorer:

Spoiler:

I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

Theoretically he would be great in a 3 guard rotation of Fultz/Brogdon/Fournier...BUT its reliant on Fultz becoming a starter.

PG: Fultz / Brogdon
SG: Brogdon / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Okeke
C: Bamba / Birch

On the other hand, if Fultz works then Ross + Vucevic is a more balanced attack and more realistic in free agency

PG: Fultz / DJ
SG: Ross / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Isaac / Okeke
C: Vucevic / Bamba

Basically, Brogdon doesn't fix the PG or primary option problem. The Magic's future would still be highly dependent on the Fultz mystery.

oh, i agree he doesnt fix the PG and also agree he isnt worth the max. I also agree that you usually have to pay more to steal a player from a team. is he worth the max? not right now. Could he be? possibly though i doubt it.

[The Effect]

New Vid...

Watch on YouTube

So excited for this kids future! He's on the up and up!

Was hoping i missed something when it comes to JI, but sadly this video re-affirmed my belief that he has no real offense except for well timed cuts (which is important) and the occasional 3.

Dont see him creating for himself very much, and thats ultimately whats going to keep him as strictly a 3&D guy, not a focal point player

Either way, not sure if you made the video, but either way, thanks for posting that

[yoyojw17]

New Vid...

Watch on YouTube

So excited for this kids future! He's on the up and up!

Was hoping i missed something when it comes to JI, but sadly this video re-affirmed my belief that he has no real offense except for well timed cuts (which is important) and the occasional 3.

Dont see him creating for himself very much, and thats ultimately whats going to keep him as strictly a 3&D guy, not a focal point player

Either way, not sure if you made the video, but either way, thanks for posting that

Oh i definitely didn't created... but totally happy to have posted it. hahaha

Actually... to be honest with you... i think he can be a little more than 3 and D.... just gotta get comfortable with some of the extra stuff. But yes... i don't expect him to be dancing with the ball at any point. but there were quite a few plays where he looked very composed and comfortable faking the 3 and driving the ball. And some low post on pin downs that led to turn around 3's. those 2 things along with a pass friendly team make up would use him to his potential. And i'd be very happy with that especially when merging that with potential elite defense.

[ezzzp]

i bet a lot has to do with the position. Wing position is more critical than center in today's NBA.

The problem is he doesn't really do that in a way that's worth max $. He's not a primary or secondary level scorer:

Spoiler:

I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

Theoretically he would be great in a 3 guard rotation of Fultz/Brogdon/Fournier...BUT its reliant on Fultz becoming a starter.

PG: Fultz / Brogdon
SG: Brogdon / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Okeke
C: Bamba / Birch

On the other hand, if Fultz works then Ross + Vucevic is a more balanced attack and more realistic in free agency

PG: Fultz / DJ
SG: Ross / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Isaac / Okeke
C: Vucevic / Bamba

Basically, Brogdon doesn't fix the PG or primary option problem. The Magic's future would still be highly dependent on the Fultz mystery.

oh, i agree he doesnt fix the PG and also agree he isnt worth the max. I also agree that you usually have to pay more to steal a player from a team. is he worth the max? not right now. Could he be? possibly though i doubt it.

Yep...some are just looking at the raw numbers and equate him with D'Angelo Russell...but if you compare them in key primary scorer stats, you can see the clear difference:

• Pull Up Shooting

Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Russell....overall 324-794 .487 eFG% and 126-361 .349%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

• Creation

Brogdon...16.9 AST%
Russell...41.3 AST%
Fournier...17.6 AST%

[VFX]

i bet a lot has to do with the position. Wing position is more critical than center in today's NBA.

The problem is he doesn't really do that in a way that's worth max $. He's not a primary or secondary level scorer:

Spoiler:

I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

Theoretically he would be great in a 3 guard rotation of Fultz/Brogdon/Fournier...BUT its reliant on Fultz becoming a starter.

PG: Fultz / Brogdon
SG: Brogdon / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Okeke
C: Bamba / Birch

On the other hand, if Fultz works then Ross + Vucevic is a more balanced attack and more realistic in free agency

PG: Fultz / DJ
SG: Ross / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Isaac / Okeke
C: Vucevic / Bamba

Basically, Brogdon doesn't fix the PG or primary option problem. The Magic's future would still be highly dependent on the Fultz mystery.

oh, i agree he doesnt fix the PG and also agree he isnt worth the max. I also agree that you usually have to pay more to steal a player from a team. is he worth the max? not right now. Could he be? possibly though i doubt it.

Brogdon doesn’t solve our pg situation like D-lo would, but he could be a secondary playmaker that would help. I don’t think I would want to pay him close to max though and I also don’t know why he would choose Orlando, compared to other situations, unless we overpay him.

[basketballRob]

Sekou Doumbouya will probably be a perennial all star just because he was the pick before ours.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[ezzzp]

The problem is he doesn't really do that in a way that's worth max $. He's not a primary or secondary level scorer:

Spoiler:

I like Brogdon a lot, but you have to contextualize every stat he has with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In Milwaukee, teams send double and triple teams to slow the Greek. Then they worry about Bledsoe's penetration and stay tight on Middleton's all over scoring threat. In the Bucks context, Brogdon is at best the 4th guy on opposing defenses' minds.

In an Orlando context, Brogdon won't have a fraction of the type of space and freedom of movement he has been accustomed to playing with. To clear cap space for Brogdon, the Magic have to renounce Vucevic and Ross. That's Orlando's top two gravity players.

In addition, while Brogdon can start at SG, he isn't a true PG. So, outside of the Fultz mystery, the Magic would still not have a long term answer at PG.

Brogdon plays mostly off ball and usually plays secondary creator...the same role as Fournier. In fact, Fournier has higher AST% than Brogdon (17.6 vs 16.9)...and that's with Brogdon feeding two top tier scorers.

Brogdon and Fournier are the same age, right now neither has that ability to shoot off-the-bounce effectively. That's why neither will likely be primary on-ball guys. Fournier is actually better and he's doing it in a much more difficult Orlando context.

• Last season on pull-up FGA's
Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

Where Brogdon excels, is in Catch and Shoot situations

• Last season in Catch and Shoot FGA's
Brogdon...overall 18-184 .712 eFG% and 86-181 .475 3P%
Fournier...overall 122-326 .540 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

BUT this is obviously created by attention created by the Greek etc:

Only TWO of Malcolm Brogdon's 244 three point attempts were defended last season (defined by NBA as having a defender within 4ft). 197 of those looks were taken with the nearest defender at least 6ft away; he shot those a .467 3P%. Interestingly, the 45 were the nearest defender was 4-6ft away, his 3P% free fell to .311

For added context...Fournier on his wide open 3's shot .413 (92-223)...and that's on a career worst shooting season.

So. When gauging what $$$ to offer Brogdon, its important to realize that his numbers were greatly impacted by just getting a lot of easy looks.

Theoretically he would be great in a 3 guard rotation of Fultz/Brogdon/Fournier...BUT its reliant on Fultz becoming a starter.

PG: Fultz / Brogdon
SG: Brogdon / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Okeke
C: Bamba / Birch

On the other hand, if Fultz works then Ross + Vucevic is a more balanced attack and more realistic in free agency

PG: Fultz / DJ
SG: Ross / Fournier / Iwundu
SF: Isaac / Fournier / Iwundu / Okeke
PF: Gordon / Isaac / Okeke
C: Vucevic / Bamba

Basically, Brogdon doesn't fix the PG or primary option problem. The Magic's future would still be highly dependent on the Fultz mystery.

oh, i agree he doesnt fix the PG and also agree he isnt worth the max. I also agree that you usually have to pay more to steal a player from a team. is he worth the max? not right now. Could he be? possibly though i doubt it.

Brogdon doesn’t solve our pg situation like D-lo would, but he could be a secondary playmaker that would help. I don’t think I would want to pay him close to max though and I also don’t know why he would choose Orlando, compared to other situations, unless we overpay him.

The problem is he's not even better than Fournier as secondary playmaker AND he was playing off of Giannis etc...and those numbers are with Fournier in an off year.

Spoiler:

• Pull Up Shooting

Brogdon...overall 13-119 .361 eFG% and 16-60 .267 3P%
Russell....overall 324-794 .487 eFG% and 126-361 .349%
Fournier...overall 129-351 .425 eFG% and 40-129 .288 3P%

• Creation

Brogdon...16.9 AST%
Russell...41.3 AST%
Fournier...17.6 AST%

While he'd be awesome to add to our talent base, spending a major chunk of future cap on him while not filling the starting PG or primary/secondary scoring option slots would be a mismanagement of the cap.

[VFX]

oh, i agree he doesnt fix the PG and also agree he isnt worth the max. I also agree that you usually have to pay more to steal a player from a team. is he worth the max? not right now. Could he be? possibly though i doubt it.

Brogdon doesn’t solve our pg situation like D-lo would, but he could be a secondary playmaker that would help. I don’t think I would want to pay him close to max though and I also don’t know why he would choose Orlando, compared to other situations, unless we overpay him.

The problem is he's not even better than Fournier as secondary playmaker AND he was playing off of Giannis etc...and those numbers are with Fournier in an off year.

While he'd be awesome to add to our talent base, spending a major chunk of future cap on him while not filling the starting PG or primary/secondary scoring option slots would be a mismanagement of the cap.

I’d argue he’s significantly better defensively than Fournier and could fill in as a point moreso than Evan. That’s valuable to Orlando considering our main backup was MCW and we don’t know about Fultz. Is that worth what he will cost? Probably not.

[ezzzp]

Brogdon doesn’t solve our pg situation like D-lo would, but he could be a secondary playmaker that would help. I don’t think I would want to pay him close to max though and I also don’t know why he would choose Orlando, compared to other situations, unless we overpay him.

The problem is he's not even better than Fournier as secondary playmaker AND he was playing off of Giannis etc...and those numbers are with Fournier in an off year.

While he'd be awesome to add to our talent base, spending a major chunk of future cap on him while not filling the starting PG or primary/secondary scoring option slots would be a mismanagement of the cap.

I’d argue he’s significantly better defensively than Fournier and could fill in as a point moreso than Evan. That’s valuable to Orlando considering our main backups was MCW and we don’t know about Fultz. Is that worth what he will cost? Probably not.

He's better defensively for sure, but he's not game changer type...he'd be a moderate defensive improvement over Fournier...the Magic need a starting PG and a primary/secondary scorer waaaaay more than they need that.

He could play back up PG, but Magic already have Fultz and DJ. If Fultz is a bust, then Magic are stuck with a very expensive back up PG/SG until you can trade Fournier and still have to find way to get that starting PG and primary/secondary scorer.

[magicman112]

Read on Twitter

Wow, looks like he has definitely put on at least some size this summer.

I was wondering how much longer we would have to wait this offseason to hear about one of our young players getting swole

My guess is that Mo won't be playing in summer league because he's in China right now.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

He's on the SL roster that came out today.

[VFX]

The problem is he's not even better than Fournier as secondary playmaker AND he was playing off of Giannis etc...and those numbers are with Fournier in an off year.

While he'd be awesome to add to our talent base, spending a major chunk of future cap on him while not filling the starting PG or primary/secondary scoring option slots would be a mismanagement of the cap.

I’d argue he’s significantly better defensively than Fournier and could fill in as a point moreso than Evan. That’s valuable to Orlando considering our main backups was MCW and we don’t know about Fultz. Is that worth what he will cost? Probably not.

He's better defensively for sure, but he's not game changer type...he'd be a moderate defensive improvement over Fournier...the Magic need a starting PG and a primary/secondary scorer waaaaay more than they need that. He could play back up PG, but Magic already have Fultz and DJ. If Fultz is a bust, then Magic are stuck with a very expensive back up PG/SG until you can trade Fournier and still have to find way to get that starting PG and primary/secondary scorer.

Agreed. I don’t see Brogdon as a realistic target considering his situation, price, and Orlando’s primary needs.

D-Lo and Tyus Jones seem like more sure targets.

[ezzzp]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Blue_and_Whte]

Read on Twitter

Wow, looks like he has definitely put on at least some size this summer.

An overreactive tweet but yeah he looks a little bigger. Standard growth for a rookie coming into his second season.

[Blue_and_Whte]

Read on Twitter

Wow, looks like he has definitely put on at least some size this summer.

I was wondering how much longer we would have to wait this offseason to hear about one of our young players getting swole

Told you someone would post something.

[NotACat]

Read on Twitter

Wow, looks like he has definitely put on at least some size this summer.

I feel like comparing him to this picture from summer league last year (beside Ayton) makes the changes more visible visible:

[spinedoc]

Oh yeah, his arms are much bigger. I'm hoping his lower body matches, its not always the case. We've seen those mutants that only work upper body and no legs at the gym, lol. I'm sure that's not the case here.