magicfan84 wrote:eyriq wrote:Zmill wrote:
And sorry to break it to ya, both Lowry and Bynum run circles around Ryno in terms of talent as a "core guy".
Lowry is very, very far from a sure thing. Career average PER of 15.9 and eFG% of .475%. His breakout year this year has him with a PER 18.9 and an eFG% of .486. He used around the same number of possessions for Houston offensively as Ryno did for us, 22% USG compared to 21.2% USG for Ryno, and was terrific getting to the line which is IMO his most attractive quality. He does not come close to running circles around Anderson statistically. If you trade Dwight you do it to secure a Win Now package; trading Dwight PER 24.2 + Ryan PER 21.2 for Bynum PER 22.9 + Lowry PER 18.9 does not come close to qualifying IMO. Not to mention it leaves us close to the same position in our search for a 3rd core guy. Downgrading our core while not overly improving our prospects of adding to that core is not going to cut it for me.
But keep in mind we would be keeping Anderson and upgrading lowry over nelson while swapping bynum for howard
That wasn't the proposed trade but
that would be something I'd be interested in, especially if we were able to move Hedo with Howard.
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Something like:
Orlando out: Howard $2.00, Hedo -.25¢ = $1.75/2
Orlando in: Bynum $1.00, Lowry .50¢, Houston #14 .25¢, future Houston .25¢ = $2.00/4
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Lakers out: Bynum $1.00, Gasol $1.00 = $2.00/2
Lakers in: Howard $2.00, Hedo -.25 = $1.75/2
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Houston out: Lowry .50¢, #14 .25¢, future 1st .25¢ = $1.00/3
Houston in: Gasol $1.00 = $1.00/1
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Orlando
still loses this trade as we are trading the best player and getting back parts that while adding up to the whole don't make a whole and require more fine tuning to get chemistry and balance right, making the right call with the picks, and using cap space right, etc. Realistically though the Magic are going to lose any trade but if we are looking to contend in the near future and we absolutely need to trade Dwight (I don't see this as the case unless he demands another trade), than something like this is goodish.
Houston and LAL win this trade because they return the far better player in each trade. The only way this calculus changes is if a different evaluation of each players worth is shown to be more accurate, and since I'm coming up with these players values on my ownski this is probably the case. You don't know what you don't know as they say.