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Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect

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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#21 » by doct3r dr3 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:52 pm

Orlwillbeback wrote:
doct3r dr3 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:i dont believe that Drew has developed any reputation as a 3 pt shooter and defense do not respect him. he was been a low 30% 3pt shooter all year. maybe he can get better, maybe he can learn from Frye. still needs to be consistent in other areas of the court to get more playing time.



In the absence of the SportVU data on contested jumpers, the best I can do is point you to the video of Nicholson's 3-point attempts (via NBA.com).

I'd say the Clippers were respecting his shot a bit in game 5 (11/6/13), but the league at large started respecting his shot in earnest around game 13 vs. Phoenix (11/24/13). After that, teams pretty much always tried to at least close out late on his catches. Again, the fact that he spotted up from the corners rather than the wings made it easier for defenders to cheat off of him a bit and help on the post.

it is one thing to say teams are respecting his shot and another to say he is transformative floor spacing presence that is single handedly responsible for his fellow players increased effectiveness when he is on the court. That's what i dont believe.


My original post doesn't say that Nicholson's presence alone created the observed effects. In fact, I specifically identify a possible source of noise in the data:

Nicholson played as a backup, so his lineups faced the defense of backup units more often than a starter's would. Now, it's not as though Nicholson didn't play with the starters at all: 60% of his minutes came with Oladipo, 44% came with Afflalo, 41% came with Harkless, and 39% came with Nelson. But without controlling for the level of opponent it's impossible to say how much of this observed effect is attributable to these sort of opponent lineup effects.


But the similarity in the details (increases in unassisted shots at the rim, big uptick in 3P%) between the observed Nicholson effect and the Frye effect on Dragic, suggests that something similar is going on with both players.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#22 » by bajotierra » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:56 pm

Wow, how long did you work on the thread? Very impressive! Can't wait to see you break our offense down once we actually have some games played.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#23 » by TheEnforcer » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:33 pm

Damn, nice analysis. You should see if you can get this posted as a feature article somewhere.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#24 » by Mad Guru » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:41 pm

Haha wow, great thread, I hope Henny doesn't just trade Nicholson, thus sort of ruining the whole thread.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#25 » by FloridaHoosier » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:44 pm

TheEnforcer wrote:Damn, nice analysis. You should see if you can get this posted as a feature article somewhere.

Certainly has more in-depth research than most of the people who write articles.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#26 » by magic22s » Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:39 am

Thanks. Its very informative! Great read. And 1

I hope Orlando Sentinel sports writers's updates will be informative as yours.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#27 » by Orlwillbeback » Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:48 am

the quality of this article blows brian schmitz out of the water.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#28 » by Go Magic » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:10 am

LOL at this being better than most so called journalists can manage these days. Expert analysis all molded together nicely. Really paints a clearer picture of why we clearly targeted Frye in free agency. I am sure this is the type of homework that most NBA teams are doing these days and its something that is blind to most casual fans.

I feel like this is clear evidence of where our team is headed. Once Frye's contract is up, his job here will be complete. He is the best player to mentor Nicholson, and I think when they work together, Drew will learn lots and it will improve the way he plays and where he positions himself on the court. Along with helping the young guards development, in his ability to open up the lane and provide veteran leadership, I think 4 years is a nice window for when all the young guns will be in place and we will be competing again.

Anyways, great article Doc. Many And-1s for you.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#29 » by Skin » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:40 am

Posts like this is why I love this forum. Nice work dre!
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#30 » by Melvinlocker » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:56 am

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.ht ... on=2012-13

It's interesting to see that Nicholson is an elite shooter from midrange at the elbows in the 2012-13 season. That, combined with his great efficiency around the rim brought him to his efficient shooting in his rookie year. He attempted 47% of his shots around the rim above league average efficiency.

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.ht ... on=2013-14

In the 2013-14 season, he started to shooter a higher percentage of his shots from the short corner and on corner threes. This year he shot 27% of his shots at the rim above league average efficiency.


Andrew seems like a linear player in the sense that his best offense comes in the middle of the floor. He wasn't irreparable in the corners so that might be an area he could develop more. However, it my feeling that he will be utilized more heavily in PnR/PnP which would necessitate Nicholson being closer to the middle of the court. If he shows that he can hit the three from the top of the key at a respectable rate, then we have the Channing Frye effect reborn.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#31 » by the_hobo » Sun Jul 20, 2014 5:13 am

Amazing read. Glad to see someone provide evidence for his value; not too many folks here appreciate him. With good coaching and some strength training he can reduce his defensive woes, and as you stated if he can increase his range to the top of the key then he'll be a bigger scorer and help our guards thrive (and imo we're going to have one of the most disgusting duos in the league in Payton and Oladipo). I'm really hoping both Harris and Gordon see time primarily at the 3 to allow Nicholson to stay on the court more.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#32 » by Nemesis21 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:21 am

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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#33 » by Bensational » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:53 am

dre, you need to submit this to the Sentinel/OPP/bleacher report or some other legit company and get paid for this work dude. this is above and beyond the quality and standards of most, if not any, major publisher.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#34 » by drsd » Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:40 pm

Refelctive to Dre's original post. I have Orlando's depth chart after the ASW as:
Payton/Gordon-B/Ridnour
Oladipo/Fournier/Green
Harris/Harkless/Marble
Frye/Gordon-A/Nicholson
Vučević/O'Quinn/Dedmon

SOme what if's. Sarting up top to be on topic, if Frye's 3-bombs free up Harris and Oladipo's driving game, Orlando is better. Extending this, assuming Harris is now set at SF and continues to be a strong scorer, Orlando is better. Assuming Payton finds his one with the extended ball handling from Oladipo and Harris, PG play should be neutral. Lowering TOs (or more generally increating the assit/TO ratio) would be expected. Thus team play is better. Vučević should be better: no injuries and an even further improved mid-range game accents his elite rebounding. Where the Magic are across the board better is in bench play. Only the PG slot is on-paper weak, but Oladipo can log bid second-unit minutes with the depth at SG and SF.

If all rounds out with the Frye effect, why can't Orlando be the coming years Phoenix of last year??? And in the East, that might be the 6 seed. From there, Just Win.

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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#35 » by dblr » Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:28 pm

Bensational wrote:dre, you need to submit this to the Sentinel/OPP/bleacher report or some other legit company and get paid for this work dude. this is above and beyond the quality and standards of most, if not any, major publisher.


Seriously! In a summer filled with speculation articles this was a really nice change of pace.

Great read... makes me want to create multiple accounts so I can And1 you more than once!
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#36 » by rcklsscognition » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:15 pm

Read this epic post on my phone and wanted to come in here and give a baker's dozen of AND1's, nice post.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#37 » by MellowRose » Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:57 pm

You should post this on the Gen. Board. Fans of the Magic, Suns, and anyone who enjoys well-thought-out NBA literature, will appreciate it.

Great work.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#38 » by WillCmeAsRomans » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:30 pm

Been said before but I'll say it again, excellent work/read. Great work!

EDIT: My only concern is will Vaughn understand how to use Frye effectively
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#39 » by cb1115 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:41 pm

Doc lowkey applying for a job at Grantland outchea.

really great read, man.
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Re: Uncle Drew and the Frye Effect 

Post#40 » by OrlChamps2030 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:52 pm

Great read. Frye will have a really nice effect on this team that doesn't show up in the box scores. Just gotta hope he can stay healthy and sustain his shooting ability the next couple of seasons.

I think some of your insight on Nicholson is a bit of a reach - but I still see where you're coming from.

Analysis like this really takes me back to SVG and his love for the Stretch 4. He was a bit ahead of his team, the NBA is really moving toward Stretch 4's being a common thing. Also, Dwight was much more effective playing next to a 4-man that can space the floor.

Welcome to Stretch Fourlando, Frye

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