Tracking the 538 RAPTOR model of the Orlando Magic

[Knightro]

Also Fultz being +.05 is probably the most interesting stat to support your hypothesis thus far. The challenge is, and I can't believe I read it on twitter. But people are taking notice of his "improved" 3pt shot. At this point, I would be happy if Futlz turns into Jameer Nelson, but I just don't see it.

Edit to say : The data pool is just too limited. But still welcome.

Just to show how wild the fluctuations are in these small sample sizes.

Fultz went from +0.5 to -0.7 in O-RAPTOR in one game.

[JoshuaPotter]

Also Fultz being +.05 is probably the most interesting stat to support your hypothesis thus far. The challenge is, and I can't believe I read it on twitter. But people are taking notice of his "improved" 3pt shot. At this point, I would be happy if Futlz turns into Jameer Nelson, but I just don't see it.

Edit to say : The data pool is just too limited. But still welcome.

Just to show how wild the fluctuations are in these small sample sizes.

Fultz went from +0.5 to -0.7 in O-RAPTOR in one game.

I've been battle crying from the rooftop that our team still has significant problems when our starting 5 is -8 and that has our "two best" players on it. All wins welcome in the meantime.

Some would argue that a lineup with
Franz
Paolo
Wagner
Suggs
Fultz

should be better and get it back defensively. We are gonna wait and see. There is a lot of chemistry that comes into basketball and some of our bench have legit been playing out of their minds.

Last 8 games our bench is tied for 2nd in offensive rating.

Entire season our bench is 11thin the NBA.

18th in the month of November.

Yeah it is stat cherry picking. It is, interesting though.

[tooler]

Nothing is static in sports. Someone could get injured. Our bench players could go into a long slump. We might decide to develop players that will lose us games. It’s hard to predict whether we’ll be .500 the rest of the season.

[eyriq]

It's still early to declare "play-in" imho. I wont stop the optimism.

Our starting five is still -8. I know I know, we got people coming back. There is still something with the lineup that needs figuring out. Or maybe our bench has just discovered the meaning of life, the fountain of youth, call pre-game mediation/chanting, or are eating a snickers bar with a cup of coffee prior to the game.

Woof! It does feel like this starting lineup is showing fault lines. Time to change it up. WCJ is coming back at the perfect time.

[eyriq]

RAPTOR remains unconvinced. The play-in floor has been raised. Franz is getting more credit, Paolo less, for our wins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 36%
Future Win Rate: 30%

10th seed record: 39 - 43
Needed Win Rate: 57%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.3%

Some (projected) Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
0.7 Franz Wager
0.6 Cole Anthony
-0.1 Markelle Fultz
-0.9 Moritz Wagner
-1.1 Paolo Banchero

Top 5 Defense
1.4 Wendell Carter Jr.
0.8 Jonathan Isaac
0.7 Franz Wagner
0.7 Jalen Suggs
0.5 Mo Bamba

Top 5 Total
1.4 Franz Wagner
0.0 Cole Anthony
-0.2 Wendell Carter Jr.
-0.3 Jonathan Isaac
-0.4 Moritz Wagner

[Bergmaniac]

Cole has the highest current (not-projected) RAPTOR on our team, LOL. Wendell has the worst offensive RAPTOR somehow. Fultz is at -3.3 overall.

[eyriq]

Cole has the highest current (not-projected) RAPTOR on our team, LOL. Wendell has the worst offensive RAPTOR somehow. Fultz is at -3.3 overall.

The area I feel safest arguing against this model's view is in its rating of Paolo Banchero. No way he's not one of our best players in RPM. Right? Right.

[Bergmaniac]

Cole has the highest current (not-projected) RAPTOR on our team, LOL. Wendell has the worst offensive RAPTOR somehow. Fultz is at -3.3 overall.

The area I feel safest arguing against this model's view is in its rating of Paolo Banchero. No way he's not one of our best players in RPM. Right? Right.

His on/off rating is pretty bad and this is a key component of all such stats.

[eyriq]

Cole has the highest current (not-projected) RAPTOR on our team, LOL. Wendell has the worst offensive RAPTOR somehow. Fultz is at -3.3 overall.

The area I feel safest arguing against this model's view is in its rating of Paolo Banchero. No way he's not one of our best players in RPM. Right? Right.

His on/off rating is pretty bad and this is a key component of all such stats.

True. Hard to pull apart all the interactions, reminds me of discrete choice modeling. They tend to require a lot of data.

[JoshuaPotter]

Gonna wait for the stats to evolve a bit so we can do a new lookback to the last five games and maybe comes it to the 10 games prior to that.

Its a fun website. Nice find Eyriq.

[ibraheim718]

I thought it would be interesting to analyze the 538 RAPTOR model of the Magic and track its evolution over the season. I suspect young players and frequently injured players are hard to model due to limited sample size, so I'm expecting some large errors, which should be especially fun for Orlando fans.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 34%
Future Win Rate: 32%

It sees us decelerating from our current pace. A two point drop is around a one win difference from our current run rate.

10th seed record: They project the 10th seed to have a record of 36-46.
Needed Win Rate: 50%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%

We'd need to win 50% of our remaining games to get that record. RAPTOR would be off our win rate by 18 points, a pretty large error. Considering that we would also need to win both play-in games they see us making the playoffs as highly improbable. RAPTOR has this happening in 6 worlds out of a 1,000.

Some Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
0.5 Markelle Fultz
0.3 Cole Anthony
0.2 Franz Wagner
-0.4 Paulo Banchero
-0.8 Moritz Wagner

Top 5 Defense
1.6 Wendell Carter Jr.
0.8 Jonathan Isaac
0.7 Franz Wagner
0.6 Mo Bamba
0.5 Jalen Suggs

Top 5 Total
0.9 Franz Wagner
0.0 Wendell Carter Jr.
-0.1 Markelle Fultz
-0.3 Jonathan Isaac
-0.4 Cole Anthony

A total +- of 0 is an average starter and a .500 team.

Some of the teams' early season struggles are weighing especially tough on Banchero as he wasn't involved in some of our wins due to injury. I expect his +- to improve.

The model makes assumptions about playing time and we get penalized on Fultz, Moe Wagner, and JI, who are all relegated to the deep bench with no playing time in a Full-strength rotation. If Fultz stays healthy and JI comes back this model will swing on that.

I think that we are an ideal dark horse candidate due to RAPTOR's assumptions around our rotation and its lack of sample size on our young players and oft injured players.

I'm not seeing that number in bold anywhere on the site.

[eyriq]

0.5 Markelle Fultz

I'm not seeing that number in bold anywhere on the site.

The site updates +- ratings on an ongoing basis.

[eyriq]

A 2-3 west coast trip did not impress. RAPTOR still thinks we are tanking. Its been consistent about the play-in floor, will be hard but not impossible to reach. Its still trying to figure out who gets what credit but is increasingly convinced that Franz is a two way impact player. It is starting to like Paolo a little more, I expect this trend to continue. Fultz is starting to trend up while Cole takes a dip.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 36%
Future Win Rate: 32%

10th seed record: 38 - 44
Needed Win Rate: 58%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.2%

Some (projected) Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
1.0 Franz Wager
0.1 Cole Anthony
-0.2 Markelle Fultz
-0.9 Paolo Banchero
-1.0 Moritz Wagner

Top 5 Defense
2.0 Wendell Carter Jr.
1.1 Franz Wagner
0.8 Jonathan Isaac
0.7 Jalen Suggs
0.3 Moritz Wagner

Top 5 Total
2.1 Franz Wagner
0.6 Wendell Carter Jr.
-0.3 Jonathan Isaac
-0.6 Cole Anthony
-0.6 Markelle Fultz

[JoshuaPotter]

The fact that the top 5 total includes both our PG's does say something.

Paulo being top 5 on offense only is kinda surprising but isn't that normal for a rookie too?

I am trying to go super easy on Paulo being its his first professional year. Next year the bar will be raised significantly.

[eyriq]

The fact that the top 5 total includes both our PG's does say something.

Paulo being top 5 on offense only is kinda surprising but isn't that normal for a rookie too?

I am trying to go super easy on Paulo being its his first professional year. Next year the bar will be raised significantly.

Yeah, Banchero is in that high productivity, low efficiency zone. ESPN RPM likes him a lot more than RAPTOR. His FTAr is the single biggest factor to his staying power IMO. All in all I'm not worried about him.

The belief in the guards is interesting. They came back around the same time and it's like RAPTOR can't quite decide who gets what credit. Bottom line though they are tied in with the improved play.

WCJ got a nice boost as well, which makes sense.

I love that it still expects good things from Isaac, two year old priors sticking around just speaks volumes to how good Isaac was.

[JoshuaPotter]

The fact that the top 5 total includes both our PG's does say something.

Paulo being top 5 on offense only is kinda surprising but isn't that normal for a rookie too?

I am trying to go super easy on Paulo being its his first professional year. Next year the bar will be raised significantly.

Yeah, Banchero is in that high productivity, low efficiency zone. ESPN RPM likes him a lot more than RAPTOR. His FTAr is the single biggest factor to his staying power IMO. All in all I'm not worried about him.

The belief in the guards is interesting. They came back around the same time and it's like RAPTOR can't quite decide who gets what credit. Bottom line though they are tied in with the improved play.

WCJ got a nice boost as well, which makes sense.

I love that it still expects good things from Isaac, two year old priors sticking around just speaks volumes to how good Isaac was.

Again what's impressive about Paulo is how good he is at how young he is, yet nobody seemed to think he could improve.

If he gets his defense to average (a hard task for anyone) and his efficiency goes up a little we could be looking at something super special.

If Paulo makes the same level jump as Wagner did this year the NBA is in trouble. But what Wagner did isn't common and I am surprised he isn't an MIP candidate, but I guess being a high drafted rookie it is expected to improve. I just can't imagine how much it is.

Edit : Well see how Isaac shapes up. / Shakes out. We need anchoring defense badly, its what makes Carter intangibles so...tangible.

[drsd]

Current Win Rate: 36%
Future Win Rate: 32%

Well: that's stupid (for the 538 computers). Orlando had a horribly tough schedule to start the season. Was injured. And was without clear direction. Now: easier schedule, more health and more direction.

The Magic will will at a higher rate to close out the season. Frankly, I would guess that 40% is a target number for an over/under bet.

[eyriq]

Current Win Rate: 36%
Future Win Rate: 32%

Well: that's stupid (for the 538 computers). Orlando had a horribly tough schedule to start the season. Was injured. And was without clear direction. Now: easier schedule, more health and more direction.

The Magic will will at a higher rate to close out the season. Frankly, I would guess that 40% is a target number for an over/under bet.

It really surprises me too.

[eyriq]

Current Win Rate: 36%
Future Win Rate: 32%

Well: that's stupid (for the 538 computers). Orlando had a horribly tough schedule to start the season. Was injured. And was without clear direction. Now: easier schedule, more health and more direction.

The Magic will will at a higher rate to close out the season. Frankly, I would guess that 40% is a target number for an over/under bet.

It just thinks the gulf between the Magic and the next team, the Wizards, is huge. To the point that the Wizards and above are favored against Orlando home or away. If RAPTOR spit out tiers it would have Orlando clearly in the tanking tier and Washington clearly in the play-in tier. Saturday's game against the Wizards will be huge.

[JoshuaPotter]

Current Win Rate: 36%
Future Win Rate: 32%

Well: that's stupid (for the 538 computers). Orlando had a horribly tough schedule to start the season. Was injured. And was without clear direction. Now: easier schedule, more health and more direction.

The Magic will will at a higher rate to close out the season. Frankly, I would guess that 40% is a target number for an over/under bet.

It just thinks the gulf between the Magic and the next team, the Wizards, is huge. To the point that the Wizards and above are favored against Orlando home or away. If RAPTOR spit out tiers it would have Orlando clearly in the tanking tier and Washington clearly in the play-in tier. Saturday's game against the Wizards will be huge.

But for the model it may prove....nothing.

% are % for a reason. That being said, I agree and think its off and its interesting. I am guessing when I say I do not think this model is taking the entire season schedule + injuries into account or it is undervaluing our team in general.

If we were healthy from day one? I imagine we would be fighting for the last tier in the play-in. Just due to inexperience and our obvious issues that I am not sure having a healthy PG roster would have completely solved.

There is something to say in that our team being injured to start the season may have ripped the bandage off for Franz / Paulo allowing them to blossom into the reliable players they are for us.