Playoffs vs Lotto

[VFX]

throwing this out into the universe: We make the playoffs, Cole does one of those things he does where he turns into MJ for a few brief moments -- maybe even hits a game winner -- we obviously still lose the series, but he gains some serious trade value. We trade him and our picks for a real PG. life is good.

That’s the only possible positive outcome of the playoffs.

One of Cole, Carter, or AB boosts their trade value somehow.

[JoshuaPotter]

Call me a playoff hopeful. Thats about it. I don't really care one way or the other. As a team right now, we are hanging our heads it feels like.

Ownership on changes goes to management. The only way the plan changes to me being OK with another lotto pick is if by some Miracle we lose the play in and win one of the top picks. Then I would have no choice but to assume we keep it and build around that momentum.

Even in that magical whimsical scenario, serious roster changes would have to be made.

[Knightro]

We're not talking about the difference between a top 4 pick and the 15th pick here. If it was a top 4 pick or the playoffs, I'd take the high pick every time.

But we're actually talking about the 12th pick versus the 15th pick basically barring some 90% unlikely to happen lottery luck.

I would prefer to play at least 5-8 play in and playoff games over getting 3 spots further up in the draft order.

[Black and Blue]

What am I hoping for? Lotto. This team needs to send a clear message to the front office that they simply do not have the parts to succeed regardless of injury (something I STILL think will be the scapegoat message).

What will we get? Play in game. I think it's 50/50 we win that game and then get bounced in the first round.

I'm the optimistic sort, so my glass half full feeling is that we win either way. Either we get valuable playoff experience for Paolo and Franz (especially the latter, who will majorly benefit from a bounce back from that game 7 debacle) - Or we fall in the standings enough to prompt ownership to make major moves this offseason.

If we do make the playoffs, it'll be fascinating to see who comes to play. As much as I don't think Carter is more than a backup, he was great in last year's playoffs. And Anthony Black playing major minutes in the playoffs is going to be so unpredictable that it'll be must watch TV.

[VFX]

[eyriq]

A message that Paolo and Franz might not be good enough and that Mosley isn't that great a coach? I definitely don't want to receive that message.

[Knightro]

I can't wrap my head around this idea that some of y'all seem to have that the difference between the front office making significant changes or not this summer is ultimately going to boil down to whether or not they win or lose one play in game.

They will make changes independent of what happens in the play in.

[VFX]

I can't wrap my head around this idea that some of y'all seem to have that the difference between the front office making significant changes or not this summer is ultimately going to boil down to whether or not they win or lose one play in game.

They will make changes independent of what happens in the play in.

Or they won’t make them regardless.

Maybe you have to hit rock bottom before ownership has seen enough.

[VFX]

A message that Paolo and Franz might not be good enough and that Mosley isn't that great a coach? I definitely don't want to receive that message.

Have you watched the majority of games this season?

We just got blown out at home by the rockets with Mosely, Paolo, and Franz leading the team.

They lost back to back games against the tanking Raptors two weeks ago.

Message seems pretty clear to me.

[eyriq]

A message that Paolo and Franz might not be good enough and that Mosley isn't that great a coach? I definitely don't want to receive that message.

Have you watched the majority of games this season?

We just got blown out at home by the rockets with Mosely, Paolo, and Franz leading the team.

They lost back to back games against the tanking Raptors two weeks ago.

Message seems pretty clear to me.

Not to me. Expectations have to get updated to handle the injuries. In-season discontinuity can explain most if not all of the performance issues we've seen so far. I have no problem giving Paolo and Franz and Mosley a pass there.

But if we continue to play under .500 ball and lose in the play-in...

To me the only excuses that are really available are that Mosley lost the locker room and/or Paolo or Franz just aren't as good as we think.

[KillMonger]

Offs, Paolo and Franz need more experience in games with high stakes

Sent from my [Sidekick 5G] using RealGM mobile app

Dude, Franz had literally lead the German national team to a World Championship...

sooo.....is less better? i would like to think more of that will always help correct or am i not understanding....

[Knightro]

I can't wrap my head around this idea that some of y'all seem to have that the difference between the front office making significant changes or not this summer is ultimately going to boil down to whether or not they win or lose one play in game.

They will make changes independent of what happens in the play in.

Or they won’t make them regardless.

Maybe you have to hit rock bottom before ownership has seen enough.

But this is kind of my exact point?

Winning or losing one game in the play in isn't the difference between rock bottom and not.

[VFX]

I can't wrap my head around this idea that some of y'all seem to have that the difference between the front office making significant changes or not this summer is ultimately going to boil down to whether or not they win or lose one play in game.

They will make changes independent of what happens in the play in.

Or they won’t make them regardless.

Maybe you have to hit rock bottom before ownership has seen enough.

But this is kind of my exact point?

Winning or losing one game in the play in isn't the difference between rock bottom and not.

Ownership and management say “hey we made the playoffs” and Weltman decides to do nothing.

You know that’s the bar regardless of how they get there and how the team looks.

[eyriq]

Or they won’t make them regardless.

Maybe you have to hit rock bottom before ownership has seen enough.

But this is kind of my exact point?

Winning or losing one game in the play in isn't the difference between rock bottom and not.

Ownership and management say “hey we made the playoffs” and Weltman decides to do nothing.

You know that’s the bar regardless of how they get there and how the team looks.

I'll be shocked if they do nothing. Moe, Harris, CoJo, and Houstan have team options, JI's minutes are regressing, WCJ has missed 17 games (an improvement) and is underperforming, Cole has been inconsistent and mostly terrible, KCP has disappointed, Jett hasn't cracked the rotation.

Weltman has pretty much said that they're going to look to make moves.

[Knightro]

Or they won’t make them regardless.

Maybe you have to hit rock bottom before ownership has seen enough.

But this is kind of my exact point?

Winning or losing one game in the play in isn't the difference between rock bottom and not.

Ownership and management say “hey we made the playoffs” and Weltman decides to do nothing.

You know that’s the bar regardless of how they get there and how the team looks.

I just don't think so.

They're gonna be like -10 or more in wins year over year. They've played worse with their main guys healthy than they did with their main guys hurt.

Changes are coming. There's no way to spin this as anything other than "process stalled, changes necessary" IMO.

[thelead]

But this is kind of my exact point?

Winning or losing one game in the play in isn't the difference between rock bottom and not.

Ownership and management say “hey we made the playoffs” and Weltman decides to do nothing.

You know that’s the bar regardless of how they get there and how the team looks.

I just don't think so.

They're gonna be like -10 or more in wins year over year. They've played worse with their main guys healthy than they did with their main guys hurt.

Changes are coming. There's no way to spin this as anything other than "process stalled, changes necessary" IMO.

IF you’re right, that changes are coming regardless, then I’m with you. Drive for the playoffs.

I just have little faith that big changes are coming if we make the playoffs… heaven forbid we win a game against Boston or Cleveland

[VFX]

But this is kind of my exact point?

Winning or losing one game in the play in isn't the difference between rock bottom and not.

Ownership and management say “hey we made the playoffs” and Weltman decides to do nothing.

You know that’s the bar regardless of how they get there and how the team looks.

I just don't think so.

They're gonna be like -10 or more in wins year over year. They've played worse with their main guys healthy than they did with their main guys hurt.

Changes are coming. There's no way to spin this as anything other than "process stalled, changes necessary" IMO.

You are being too pragmatic about IF ____ THEN ____.

They tell ownership that their objectives for the season are playoffs.
Well then they inadvertently delivered on their goals despite being a significantly worse team this season and poor roster construction.

Weltman has parroted "consistency" and "continuity" as opposed to making changes. Giving him another out to forgo making decisions to me is more important than merely watching Orlando get swept in the first round because people have some underlying idea that all experiences are good experiences.

Just another examples of people being short sighted and missing the bigger picture here. We ALREADY know Weltman will use the injury excuse this offseason regardless of outcome. I dont need to wait 5 months to know that.

[drsd]

Wow.

There is only one answer here. Playoffs.

You get a ticket to the dance and you go for it. I mean, so of you are so conditioned to rinse and repeat failure that the game for you happens in the offseason.

Last i checked, the real NBA is played in the postseason and I for one want the team to be there and to put its best foot forward.

Lotto? Get outta here. Even if we get a high pick, Weltman will prob screw it up. Even if he drafts the best PG prospect going, that guy will be pure azz for at least 2 seasons. Almost never is a drafted guard able to be an NBA field general inside 3 years. So get used to more suckage if you like playing BB in the summer.

And-2

Can Orlando win a couple games against Boston? Yes. Orlando is already 1-1 and the 3rd game will be as the Celts rest players; I would favor the magic to win the season series.

So with those two wins, Orlando needs a fluke win and something weird. Then that's 4 wins. Overall I would give the magic something like a 10% chance to win a series against the Celts. Well: that's better odds than the 12 seed going top-4 in the lottery.

What on Earth would Orlando do with a top-4 pick?

Overall #1: Cooper Flagg. He cannot be envisaged to play with Banchero or F-Wagner. So what? Trade him. That's insane.
#2 and #3: Dylan Harper or VJ Edgecombe. Combo guards that are not snipers. Orlando already has Black so. Trade. That's insane.

I guess if the Magic land at #4 there is value in Tre Johnson as player where there is actually some purpose of the player being on the Magic. A SG that can shoot.

Another point: in what Universe does Banchero and "F-Wagner "let" the Magic miss the playoffs? Both will play play-in games like it's game-7 of the NBA Finals.

In conclusion: I don;t want the 2025/26 Magic to have a rookie. I really, really hope both picks are traded.

[Knightro]

You are being too pragmatic about IF ____ THEN ____.

They tell ownership that their objectives for the season are playoffs.
Well then they inadvertently delivered on their goals despite being a significantly worse team this season and poor roster construction.

Weltman has parroted "consistency" and "continuity" as opposed to making changes. Giving him another out to forgo making decisions to me is more important than merely watching Orlando get swept in the first round because people have some underlying idea that all experiences are good experiences.

Just another examples of people being short sighted and missing the bigger picture here. We ALREADY know Weltman will use the injury excuse this offseason regardless of outcome. I dont need to wait 5 months to know that.

I'm sorry, but no.

I absolutely do not believe even Weltman could convince the idiots who own the team that the objective for this year, coming off a 47-win regular season and a super competitive battle to very end 7 game series in Round 1, was simply to *make* the playoffs again as a 7 or 8 seed and get absolutely blasted in Round 1.

That is just not what the goal or objective was coming into this season at all.

[drsd]

Lose to Atlanta in play-in game 1. Beat Chicago in play-in game two to be the 8-seed in the playoffs
Go 4-1 in round 1 with 2 home wins and a 2-1 road record
Go 4-2 in Conference semis with 3-0 at home and 1-2 road record
Conference Finals: 4–3 (home: 1–2; road: 3–1)
NBA Finals: 1–4 (home: 0–2; road: 1–2)


That's not a prediction. It's reality.

Spoiler:

The above was the playoffs for the 2022–23 Miami Heat season.

Of course the Magic will work to make the playoffs.