Surfing the New CBA - Weltman Comment and Target

[cedric76]

Jrue: 32 M - Suggs : 32 M (same)
D White: 28 M - ????
JB : 53 M - Franz : 41 M (-12)
JT: 54 M - Paolo : 49 M (-5)
Porz: 30 M - WCJ : 18 M (-12)

That right there is why White is my ultimate offseason target. If we are trying to replicate a lot of what Boston are doing, can't do better than adding one of them to sure-up our biggest weakness. Reaves and Herro rank pretty highly for me after White. Giddey would be a big swing and maybe not the right answer, but I'd s&t for him if it were possible.

One thing I'd argue is that because our young guys and their max contracts are relatively low compared to that of 3rd-contract max contracts ($80M-ish combined vs up to $120M for some duos), the Magic can probably afford to take on another max level contract if it expires in the next year or 2, if it means a big step up in their level of competition immediately. Now is the time to spend up, because we can always pare it back in the future. So maybe names like Booker, Ja and Trae aren't completely off the table for financial reasons.

I have crazy idea that we can trade for Sabonis. Than our offense can go more through him. Our guards doesnt have to be great ball handlers they can score more on cuts and we can try to prioritize on ball defense.
Its also a.lot harder to switch Sabonis on Wagner/Banchero defender than between those two.
WCJ is not good enough to do it but Sabonis is.
We would need to be a lot more strict with our salary but for two year experiment it could be really interesting and different option.

Sabonis makes nearly 28% of the cap so he wouldnt be a good fit

[pepe1991]

Prichard should sue his manager, he got robbed

[Bensational]

Jrue: 32 M - Suggs : 32 M (same)
D White: 28 M - ????
JB : 53 M - Franz : 41 M (-12)
JT: 54 M - Paolo : 49 M (-5)
Porz: 30 M - WCJ : 18 M (-12)

That right there is why White is my ultimate offseason target. If we are trying to replicate a lot of what Boston are doing, can't do better than adding one of them to sure-up our biggest weakness. Reaves and Herro rank pretty highly for me after White. Giddey would be a big swing and maybe not the right answer, but I'd s&t for him if it were possible.

One thing I'd argue is that because our young guys and their max contracts are relatively low compared to that of 3rd-contract max contracts ($80M-ish combined vs up to $120M for some duos), the Magic can probably afford to take on another max level contract if it expires in the next year or 2, if it means a big step up in their level of competition immediately. Now is the time to spend up, because we can always pare it back in the future. So maybe names like Booker, Ja and Trae aren't completely off the table for financial reasons.

I have crazy idea that we can trade for Sabonis. Than our offense can go more through him. Our guards doesnt have to be great ball handlers they can score more on cuts and we can try to prioritize on ball defense.
Its also a.lot harder to switch Sabonis on Wagner/Banchero defender than between those two.
WCJ is not good enough to do it but Sabonis is.
We would need to be a lot more strict with our salary but for two year experiment it could be really interesting and different option.

Bold and kind of interesting. I feel like you may be risking too much of a defensive liability with a Sabonis and Paolo front court, but offensively it could create some unique options.

[Bensational]

Prichard should sue his manager, he got robbed

It’s like Boston paid a guy to wash their car and he ends up rebuilding the engine for them as well for free. That’s the kind of value they’re getting back on that contract.

[pepe1991]

Prichard should sue his manager, he got robbed

It’s like Boston paid a guy to wash their car and he ends up rebuilding the engine for them as well for free. That’s the kind of value they’re getting back on that contract.

Maybe, maybe, maybe he just wants to play on contender and money isn't priority and just wants to hoop for contender and team that invested in him. He signed exclusive shoes deal with Converse. After all you can make nice living off $30M

[Skybox]

I LL add this here so people understand that our contracts are well constructed

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/orlando-magic/yearly

By 2027
Paolo will make close to 30% of our cap
Franz will make less than 25% of our cap
Suggs will make less than 16% of our cap
WCJ (our starting C) 10 % of our cap
The guard we ll get this summer (simons, sexton etc..) and extended for around 20 M will make 12% of our cap
JI will make 7% of our cap (and can be cut if he plays less than 52 games ( 0 $ guaranteed)
TDS 3%
If we extend Moe long term i could see him at 6% of our cap

We are in great hand with Jeff
As long as we get that starting guard for 20-25M long term , we are in GREAT shape

You realize that you're at 100% of the cap with the first 6 guys and one of them plays 14mpg (when he plays) and one of them plays 55 games per year?

Presuming that KCP's salary goes to the new guy...

I know it's not a hard cap, but I guess I'd rather have my 6 best guys getting paid and the rest NOT...you've left off very expensive deep subs like Moe, Goga, what will AB make by then? Weltman could, conceivably, fix all of the imbalances this summer...but it will look like one of my maniacally busy posts on the trade thread...unlikely, and even if he did, he doesn't get a parade for undoing his f**kups and previous derelictions of duty. That's like eating McDonalds for 6 months to get as disgusting as possible before beginning your crash diet and then getting an award for losing so much weight.

Seems like you missed an important point about the CBA and how it works

to give you an example:

For 2024-2025

NBA salary cap is $140,588,00
Luxury Tax: $170,814,000
First Apron: $178,132,000
Second Apron: $188,931,000

I ll turn this into % so it s easier to understand:

Luxury Tax Line is about 21.5% above the cap -->121.5% of Salary cap
First Apron is roughly 26.7% above the cap -->126.7% of Salary cap
Second Apron is approximately 34.4% above the cap -->134.4% of Salary cap


To build a championship-caliber team that avoids the harsh restrictions of the 1st and 2nd aprons, a team should aim for a "Cap-Tiered Roster Structure" like this:

Top 6–7 Players = around 100% (to 105%) of the Cap

These are your core stars and key starters.

Example (Orlando by 2027):

Paolo Banchero (~30%)
Franz Wagner (<25%)
Jalen Suggs (<16%)
Starting Guard (Simons/Sexton or any of the guys that have been mentioned) (~12%)
Wendell Carter Jr. (~10%)
Jonathan Isaac (~7%, non-guaranteed) Keep in mind that he can be cut if he plays less than 52 games ( so by 2027,we ll know if he is broken or not)
Possibly a 7th like Moe Wagner (~6%)


Players 8–11 = ~26.7% of the Cap (Stay Below 1st Apron)
Role players, experienced rotation pieces.

Contracts should be short or team-friendly.
Smart use of MLE, room exception, or homegrown extensions.

Only go above the 1st apron when you're a true contender (which we ll be by 2027).

Players 12–15 = ~8% of the Cap (Stay Below 2nd Apron)
Use rookie second-rounders and veteran minimums.

These spots offer flexibility and are crucial for staying under the 2nd apron, where roster tools become extremely limited.

We can go above the 2nd (if needed) only when we ll be chasing or defending a title.


Why This Works:
Staying below the 1st apron preserves access to mid-level exceptions and trade flexibility.

Staying below the 2nd apron avoids severe penalties:
No sign-and-trade acquisitions.
No aggregating salaries in trades.
Frozen draft picks.

This structure ensures you can retain your stars without being forced into cap-clearing trades.

Bottom Line:
Jeff, unlike Magic Fan, understand this and this is why he Magic are in a great position if they follow this model. As long as they lock in a starting guard within the $20–25M range and continue hitting on draft picks and value contracts, they'll be one of the best-structured teams in the league for long-term contention.

Good breakdown and interpretation but it doesn’t excuse many of his investments. They’ve simply got to unload negative value guys from spot 4 to the end of the bench…it’s doable, but it’s now more difficult and urgent than it needed to be. I’ve maintained all along that we’re in pretty good shape but we wasted the opportunity to do it smoothly, step by step…now, it will take a more dramatic effort to clean up the mess, that is less likely for Weltman to pull off…it’s also easy to casually suggest that we lock in a starting guard in the $20-25m range that does more than Suggs (playmaking & scoring without hurting our defensive identity) while moving out KCP in the same move.

Weltman is saying the right things…I’m here for the show, I’ve been waiting for it to start for two years.

[drsd]

You’ve got it wrong — KCP’s deal isn’t what’s limiting us.
By 2027, he’ll have a player option worth around 12% of the cap, which is very manageable.

And-1 to every pixel, but I want to add on this thought line.

The 2025/26 cap will be challenging for Orlando. The team is 100% to be over the luxury line and it will be moneyball to stay below the 1st-Apron. That's true. But from 2026/27 and on, the 10% increases in the cap annually, and the nature of the current contracts structured, the team will be in good financial health medium term. (( Suggs' front loaded contract is GENIUS in this regard ! ))

[cedric76]

You’ve got it wrong — KCP’s deal isn’t what’s limiting us.
By 2027, he’ll have a player option worth around 12% of the cap, which is very manageable.

And-1 to every pixel, but I want to add on this thought line.

The 2025/26 cap will be challenging for Orlando. The team is 100% to be over the luxury line and it will be moneyball to stay below the 1st-Apron. That's true. But from 2026/27 and on, the 10% increases in the cap annually, and the nature of the current contracts structured, the team will be in good financial health medium term. (( Suggs' front loaded contract is GENIUS in this regard ! ))

Being above the 1st apron is NOT a big deal if you are a contender and you are spending 100% of the cap on your core players

[CocoaFan]

Great discussion. I come here to learn and this was great

[eyriq]

We are in good spot. Weltman made many mistakes, but overall he did well. Drafted very good at the top of the lottery. Kept our books clean. Tried to move assets into the future.
He didnt draft great later in the draft. He didnt sign gems in free agency. He keeps weak players for too long. Some of it you can explain that he valued development more than winning.... until now.
You can argue we needed to be good enough to make playoffs at the lowest cost possible... i think he did it two times at the very small margin.

From your targets i like Sexton the most. He is a scorer and tough player.
Simons i dont like much. He seems fragile both physically and mentally.
Murphy i cant imagine being available. They will trade Zion before him.
Coby is also option but same as Simon i dont like his mental profile.

Problèm with Cody is that we would lose him during summer 2026, so not worth trading for him

We would have his bird rights and could offer more than anyone (8% vs 5% raises, extra year).

[cedric76]

We are in good spot. Weltman made many mistakes, but overall he did well. Drafted very good at the top of the lottery. Kept our books clean. Tried to move assets into the future.
He didnt draft great later in the draft. He didnt sign gems in free agency. He keeps weak players for too long. Some of it you can explain that he valued development more than winning.... until now.
You can argue we needed to be good enough to make playoffs at the lowest cost possible... i think he did it two times at the very small margin.

From your targets i like Sexton the most. He is a scorer and tough player.
Simons i dont like much. He seems fragile both physically and mentally.
Murphy i cant imagine being available. They will trade Zion before him.
Coby is also option but same as Simon i dont like his mental profile.

Problèm with Cody is that we would lose him during summer 2026, so not worth trading for him

We would have his bird rights and could offer more than anyone (8% vs 5% raises, extra year).

Not as easy as that, the max we can offer him on year 1 of his deal is less than 18M.

So let's say a team with cap (and they ll be many in 2026) offer him a jrue holiday type of contract

134M over 4 year ( 33M, 33M, 33M and 35M), to match that offer we d have to do:
(18M, 39M, 39M, 38M) Which would kill our payroll and put us well above the first apron

This is why, you can spin it every way you want, Coby white to Orlando is not happening

[eyriq]

Problèm with Cody is that we would lose him during summer 2026, so not worth trading for him

We would have his bird rights and could offer more than anyone (8% vs 5% raises, extra year).

Not as easy as that, the max we can offer him on year 1 of his deal is less than 18M.

So let's say a team with cap (and they ll be many in 2026) offer him a jrue holiday type of contract

134M over 4 year ( 33M, 33M, 33M and 35M), to match that offer we d have to do:
(18M, 39M, 39M, 38M) Which would kill our payroll and put us well above the first apron

This is why, you can spin it every way you want, Coby white to Orlando is not happening

The max we can offer in his extension is like you said, 140% of his current salary with 8% increases. He declines and enters free agency.

Now his bird rights kick in. We can offer him the max salary available to him from ANY team and we can give him 8% increases that no one else can and an extra year that no one else can. We can beat any offer on free agency.

This goes for Reeves as well.

[orlando_joe]

You realize that you're at 100% of the cap with the first 6 guys and one of them plays 14mpg (when he plays) and one of them plays 55 games per year?

Presuming that KCP's salary goes to the new guy...

I know it's not a hard cap, but I guess I'd rather have my 6 best guys getting paid and the rest NOT...you've left off very expensive deep subs like Moe, Goga, what will AB make by then?

It’s interesting tracking how cap pressures have influenced different teams recently. Phoenix are likely about to blow up a team with Durant and Booker because they’re too top-heavy. Boston is probably setting the standard for roster depth and contract dispersion but even they are rumoured to be looking to trim down salary.

What you call expensive subs are what I consider to be our potential bargains like Pritchard. Backup guys who outperform their contracts impact to dollar. But you’re right that now is the time to start making sure all that money is seen on the court and not the bench.

You can have one or two 'Pritchards", not fill your bench with guys in that range...even Gary Harris, who is probably 10 deep, made $7.5m

you know harris was a 1 yr deal before suggs and franz contracts go up magic also were still under tax ...it is just dishonest to me when i think you know magic could not sign long term contract with that money

[cedric76]

We would have his bird rights and could offer more than anyone (8% vs 5% raises, extra year).

Not as easy as that, the max we can offer him on year 1 of his deal is less than 18M.

So let's say a team with cap (and they ll be many in 2026) offer him a jrue holiday type of contract

134M over 4 year ( 33M, 33M, 33M and 35M), to match that offer we d have to do:
(18M, 39M, 39M, 38M) Which would kill our payroll and put us well above the first apron

This is why, you can spin it every way you want, Coby white to Orlando is not happening

The max we can offer in his extension is like you said, 140% of his current salary with 8% increases. He declines and enters free agency.

Now his bird rights kick in. We can offer him the max salary available to him from ANY team and we can give him 8% increases that no one else can and an extra year that no one else can. We can beat any offer on free agency.

This goes for Reeves as well.

Sorry, you got it wrong

This is the same situation lal faced with reaves,

Read above the explanation, even Keith smith mentioned it during one of his podcast.

You can doubt me but you can doubt Keith:-)

[Skybox]

It’s interesting tracking how cap pressures have influenced different teams recently. Phoenix are likely about to blow up a team with Durant and Booker because they’re too top-heavy. Boston is probably setting the standard for roster depth and contract dispersion but even they are rumoured to be looking to trim down salary.

What you call expensive subs are what I consider to be our potential bargains like Pritchard. Backup guys who outperform their contracts impact to dollar. But you’re right that now is the time to start making sure all that money is seen on the court and not the bench.

You can have one or two 'Pritchards", not fill your bench with guys in that range...even Gary Harris, who is probably 10 deep, made $7.5m

you know harris was a 1 yr deal before suggs and franz contracts go up magic also were still under tax ...it is just dishonest to me when i think you know magic could not sign long term contract with that money

Dishonest? You're thinking too much or too little...I was just stating what his salary was, for scale. Pritchard is as amazing a deal as KCP is a bad one.

Again, not anti-KCP, Goga, or even WCJ...the deals are bad not the players.

[Skybox]

Not as easy as that, the max we can offer him on year 1 of his deal is less than 18M.

So let's say a team with cap (and they ll be many in 2026) offer him a jrue holiday type of contract

134M over 4 year ( 33M, 33M, 33M and 35M), to match that offer we d have to do:
(18M, 39M, 39M, 38M) Which would kill our payroll and put us well above the first apron

This is why, you can spin it every way you want, Coby white to Orlando is not happening

The max we can offer in his extension is like you said, 140% of his current salary with 8% increases. He declines and enters free agency.

Now his bird rights kick in. We can offer him the max salary available to him from ANY team and we can give him 8% increases that no one else can and an extra year that no one else can. We can beat any offer on free agency.

This goes for Reeves as well.

Sorry, you got it wrong

This is the same situation lal faced with reaves,

Read above the explanation, even Keith smith mentioned it during one of his podcast.

You can doubt me but you can doubt Keith:-)

Same scenario as Monk last year? He ended up signing for less than what a lot of us assumed was market value...ostensibly to stick with his bestie Fox

[eyriq]

Not as easy as that, the max we can offer him on year 1 of his deal is less than 18M.

So let's say a team with cap (and they ll be many in 2026) offer him a jrue holiday type of contract

134M over 4 year ( 33M, 33M, 33M and 35M), to match that offer we d have to do:
(18M, 39M, 39M, 38M) Which would kill our payroll and put us well above the first apron

This is why, you can spin it every way you want, Coby white to Orlando is not happening

The max we can offer in his extension is like you said, 140% of his current salary with 8% increases. He declines and enters free agency.

Now his bird rights kick in. We can offer him the max salary available to him from ANY team and we can give him 8% increases that no one else can and an extra year that no one else can. We can beat any offer on free agency.

This goes for Reeves as well.

Sorry, you got it wrong

This is the same situation lal faced with reaves,

Read above the explanation, even Keith smith mentioned it during one of his podcast.

You can doubt me but you can doubt Keith:-)

I think the point of confusion is between early bird rights and full bird rights. Monk and Reeves had EARLY BIRD RIGHTS at the time of their extensions (two years of service). Reeves, Coby, and Simons have full bird rights. We'll get those rights in the trade.

[basketballRob]

The max we can offer in his extension is like you said, 140% of his current salary with 8% increases. He declines and enters free agency.

Now his bird rights kick in. We can offer him the max salary available to him from ANY team and we can give him 8% increases that no one else can and an extra year that no one else can. We can beat any offer on free agency.

This goes for Reeves as well.

Sorry, you got it wrong

This is the same situation lal faced with reaves,

Read above the explanation, even Keith smith mentioned it during one of his podcast.

You can doubt me but you can doubt Keith:-)

Same scenario as Monk last year? He ended up signing for less than what a lot of us assumed was market value...ostensibly to stick with his bestie Fox

I think Monk got more than what he's worth

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[orlando_joe]

You can have one or two 'Pritchards", not fill your bench with guys in that range...even Gary Harris, who is probably 10 deep, made $7.5m

you know harris was a 1 yr deal before suggs and franz contracts go up magic also were still under tax ...it is just dishonest to me when i think you know magic could not sign long term contract with that money

Dishonest? You're thinking too much or too little...I was just stating what his salary was, for scale. Pritchard is as amazing a deal as KCP is a bad one.

Again, not anti-KCP, Goga, or even WCJ...the deals are bad not the players.

sorry my comment was for harris...
i dont even think the other deals are bad...but i do wish kcp 3rd season was t.o. not p.o...but with his agent that was never going to let that happen...lol
i also see most fa signings costing 20-25% more..unless you are real top few competing teams might get fair or under market.but you do not give assets

[Skybox]

you know harris was a 1 yr deal before suggs and franz contracts go up magic also were still under tax ...it is just dishonest to me when i think you know magic could not sign long term contract with that money

Dishonest? You're thinking too much or too little...I was just stating what his salary was, for scale. Pritchard is as amazing a deal as KCP is a bad one.

Again, not anti-KCP, Goga, or even WCJ...the deals are bad not the players.

sorry my comment was for harris...
i dont even think the other deals are bad...but i do wish kcp 3rd season was t.o. not p.o...but with his agent that was never going to let that happen...lol
i also see most fa signings costing 20-25% more..unless you are real top few competing teams might get fair or under market.but you do not give assets

Makes the signing of the wrong guy at the wrong position with the wrong skillset even stupider