Official 2020 NBA Draft Thread

[pepe1991]

This is bull**** mathematics at it's finest.
I took 2013 draft, 60 drafted players, 9 of them didn't even signed nba contracts, 11 of them didn't play single game in nba OR they played less than 50 games.

So lottery picks made 35% of all players that even played in nba that year.

This does not even take in account guys who didn't even get fair nba chance like Glen Rice Jr who "lasted" 2 years and collected amazing total of 16 games played ( who i didn't include in upper > 50 games in career squad)

So in reality, lottery picks made around 40% of all rookies that year.

And this is not me cherrypicking 2013 to make a point, look at 2016,2017 or any other year and see how many of them never played.

You do realize that pointing out a huge chunk of non-lotto draft picks are so bad that they never even play a season's worth of games before they're let go actually *helps* my point and not hurts it, right?

Pointing out that most allstars are from lottery is worthless argument, draft is only path toward nba for young player and 14 out of like 45 players that even get a chance are lottery picks.
Huge chunk of players, including lottery picks are garbage players. Fact.

From 2012-2017 those are lottery picks that are either marginal nba players or outside of nba already:
2012: MKG, Thomas Robinson, Mayers Leonard, Kendall Marshall
2013: Bennett, McLemore, Alex Len, Muhammad
2014: Okafor, Vonleh, Stauskas, Exum
2015: Mudiay, Hezonja, Payne ( dishonorable mentions: Winslow and Johnson who both did nothing )
2016: Bender, Chriss, Maker,Papagiannis
2017: Ntilikina, Justin Jackson, Monk, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith

That's what? Over 30% of all lottery picks that were complete trash? I didn't even try that hard to use some guys who are just there, floating, doing nothing,trying to make last nba paycheck before being flushed like: Waiters, Zeller, Burke, MCW,Mcdermott,Pöltl, Parker, WSC...

And also this is not even me counting on painful mediocrities that are good enough to be in nba for 8 or more years but will never make impact or leave any lasting impression like Elfrid Payton, Noel, Trey Lyles, Prince, Dunn, Denzel Valentine...

But this is a league with at least 420 bodies needed.

[Bensational]

Pointing out that most allstars are from lottery is worthless argument, draft is only path toward nba for young player and 14 out of like 45 players that even get a chance are lottery picks.

This just got me thinking about the maths of adding talent via draft, vs trade and free agency. Trade is much harder to try to project, but draft and free agency have plenty of cross over.

Both the draft and FA are open to all NBA teams, with one being a free market and the other being somewhat regulated. In the draft, teams choose the players they will acquire, and in free agency the players choose the teams they will sign with. In the draft, it's largely pure projections of their estimated abilities and impact, whereas with free agency they are established and known prospects.

With the draft, each team gets a set pick they are free to use, ranked in order of the lottery. With that pick they can select 1 out of 60 players who will be drafted on draft night. Knightro shared the odds of success from that article before:

No. 1 pick 64% likely to be an all-star.

Top 5 pick 30% likely to be an all-star.

First rounder outside the lotto 8% likely.

Now, comparing those odds of improving the team vs free agency, where a team can acquire a player who is 100% already an allstar. BUT, they're competing with 30 other teams, so each team only has a 3% chance of acquiring this player - if free agency were a level playing field. But we all know it never is - different teams have different appeal, and different levels of cap space. For the Magic, we've had a decade plus of not being able to acquire an allstar free agent.

So if you want to add talent that is otherwise likely out of your range in free agency, then the draft and trades are all that's left. Trades it's impossible to predict comparably to these other two, so that's a different beast.

[Skin]

Having a high pick not only gives you a better chance at getting a stud but teams can also trade the pick for more value the higher the pick is.

Every year the same people bring up this same silly notion that drafting is hard so it's not worth it. The pick isn't the problem when it comes to busts. Scouting is.

[MagicFan101]

Huge chunk of players, including lottery picks are garbage players. Fact.

Many medical doctors are outdated, bad and outright dangerous. FACT

By "Pepe-Logic" this means rather than doing your homework or getting second opinions you should simply "walk-it-off" or be treated by the local butcher? Is that correct?


The statics are undeniable to anyone with enough common sense to pay attention. You pay scouts to be the best at what they do. If your scouts can't find the best talent at the top of the draft then fire them ... don't try to argue against the raw numbers staring you in the face.

[Knightro]

Pointing out that most allstars are from lottery is worthless argument, draft is only path toward nba for young player and 14 out of like 45 players that even get a chance are lottery picks.
Huge chunk of players, including lottery picks are garbage players. Fact.

From 2012-2017 those are lottery picks that are either marginal nba players or outside of nba already:
2012: MKG, Thomas Robinson, Mayers Leonard, Kendall Marshall
2013: Bennett, McLemore, Alex Len, Muhammad
2014: Okafor, Vonleh, Stauskas, Exum
2015: Mudiay, Hezonja, Payne ( dishonorable mentions: Winslow and Johnson who both did nothing )
2016: Bender, Chriss, Maker,Papagiannis
2017: Ntilikina, Justin Jackson, Monk, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith

That's what? Over 30% of all lottery picks that were complete trash? I didn't even try that hard to use some guys who are just there, floating, doing nothing,trying to make last nba paycheck before being flushed like: Waiters, Zeller, Burke, MCW,Mcdermott,Pöltl, Parker, WSC...

And also this is not even me counting on painful mediocrities that are good enough to be in nba for 8 or more years but will never make impact or leave any lasting impression like Elfrid Payton, Noel, Trey Lyles, Prince, Dunn, Denzel Valentine...

But this is a league with at least 420 bodies needed.

Just so we're clear, you're going to continue to argue in bad faith? Because I know you understand what I'm talking about and are just intentionally ignoring it.

Yes, there are busts every year in the lottery. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 10. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 5.

But guess what? The bust percentage *is even greater* the further you get away from the top 5, the top 10 and the lottery.

You don't like tanking? That's fine. No one says you have to think it's a foolproof strategy or want the Magic to do it.

But ignoring the stone cold factual data that your own article cited - that a basketball team is more likely to draft an all-star player the higher their pick is - and instead trying to change the argument to "well the percentage of finding a quality player in the lottery is still so low that the Magic shouldn't tank!" is in such a bad faith that I can't in good conscious continue to have this discussion with you because you clearly know better and are ignoring basic facts intentionally.

[Skin]

I'm convinced Haliburton will be a star.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Who's your favorite player comparison for him?

[basketballRob]

I'm convinced Haliburton will be a star.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Who's your favorite player comparison for him?

Maybe SGA or Ron Harper. He has size and a great handle, that's rare. I saw it in Doncic before the draft. When you have size and can handle the ball like Kyrie, it's a recipe for success.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[yoyojw17]

Pointing out that most allstars are from lottery is worthless argument, draft is only path toward nba for young player and 14 out of like 45 players that even get a chance are lottery picks.
Huge chunk of players, including lottery picks are garbage players. Fact.

From 2012-2017 those are lottery picks that are either marginal nba players or outside of nba already:
2012: MKG, Thomas Robinson, Mayers Leonard, Kendall Marshall
2013: Bennett, McLemore, Alex Len, Muhammad
2014: Okafor, Vonleh, Stauskas, Exum
2015: Mudiay, Hezonja, Payne ( dishonorable mentions: Winslow and Johnson who both did nothing )
2016: Bender, Chriss, Maker,Papagiannis
2017: Ntilikina, Justin Jackson, Monk, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith

That's what? Over 30% of all lottery picks that were complete trash? I didn't even try that hard to use some guys who are just there, floating, doing nothing,trying to make last nba paycheck before being flushed like: Waiters, Zeller, Burke, MCW,Mcdermott,Pöltl, Parker, WSC...

And also this is not even me counting on painful mediocrities that are good enough to be in nba for 8 or more years but will never make impact or leave any lasting impression like Elfrid Payton, Noel, Trey Lyles, Prince, Dunn, Denzel Valentine...

But this is a league with at least 420 bodies needed.

Just so we're clear, you're going to continue to argue in bad faith? Because I know you understand what I'm talking about and are just intentionally ignoring it.

Yes, there are busts every year in the lottery. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 10. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 5.

But guess what? The bust percentage *is even greater* the further you get away from the top 5, the top 10 and the lottery.

You don't like tanking? That's fine. No one says you have to think it's a foolproof strategy or want the Magic to do it.

But ignoring the stone cold factual data that your own article cited - that a basketball team is more likely to draft an all-star player the higher their pick is - and instead trying to change the argument to "well the percentage of finding a quality player in the lottery is still so low that the Magic shouldn't tank!" is in such a bad faith that I can't in good conscious continue to have this discussion with you because you clearly know better and are ignoring basic facts intentionally.

I've never been one for tanking per say... but strategic step backs to make large steps forwards i can get behind.

Many might disagree... but us keeping vuc and fournier and some of the other vets were necessary in boueying the team and developing the desired culture and winning mentality while particular core players have a chance to grow and become better versions of themselves. Putting too much pressure on Isaac and bamba during their needed GAINZa and fultz during rehab and re-acclimation, too much responsibility from the get-go could have resulted in different trajectories in their careers. IF the organization is now comfortable with their progress physically and mentally... this is the time that they can start shouldering more of the load.

If they are willing to give up anything of value to move up in the draft... they see the team is beginning to develop into possibly what they are envisioning...and they see that there is a player at the top that help complete this picture. We have seen John and Jeff be methodical about there moves up until now and the way they deal with things... i don't think that's about to change now. Even if we cannot decipher their plans and want to paint a broad paint brush of... "They only like long bois with no skill"... there is a method to their madness.

So ... if they start making moves that might include vets for younger pieces... there is also a method to their madness again... with calculated risks. And that calculation might include getting a player that they think will fit perfectly with the culture and team concept... fill in gaps and produce short term and long term success... or a piece that is going to have a long term effect while taking a step back and positioning themselves for a strong play in the next draft.

And some players may be moved to fill in the lineups for other talents that fit the team trajectory from this point on.

Our higher ups keep most of their stuff close to their chests... so we can only surmise what the bigger picture is. But since they are not the careless bunch... i personally assume that there is much more than meets the eyes... and later on it might all make sense. And yes... I say MIGHT because there are no guarantees at all in this league.

[Skin]

I'm convinced Haliburton will be a star.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Who's your favorite player comparison for him?

Maybe SGA or Ron Harper. He has size and a great handle, that's rare. I saw it in Doncic before the draft. When you have size and can handle the ball like Kyrie, it's a recipe for success.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

SGA and Harper are not stars though. Haliburton can only dream of having Kyrie's handle too.

[basketballRob]

Who's your favorite player comparison for him?

Maybe SGA or Ron Harper. He has size and a great handle, that's rare. I saw it in Doncic before the draft. When you have size and can handle the ball like Kyrie, it's a recipe for success.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

SGA and Harper are not stars though. Haliburton can only dream of having Kyrie's handle too.

I think SGA will be an allstar soon. Haliburton could even be better than him.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Bensational]

With Ball allegedly the expected #1, how does that impact the rest of the board and other potential moves?

Edwards and Wiseman both available @2, the other @3.

Charlotte has no need to trade out of this scenario. GSW - let's see what they do.

@4 Chicago allegedly covet Deni

@5 Cleveland want a big. OO? Okoro?

@6 Atlanta has both Haliburton and Hayes available, and they're rumoured to want to trade out for veteran help.

@7 Detroit can take whoever is left of those two, if they haven't already traded up for 1 or 2. So this could be GSW or Minny picking.

@8 NYK really start in the worst spot. Unless Detroit take a big, then the best of the guards are gone. Now it's Kira, Maxey, Terry, Nesmith names, or one of the forwards (none of whom I like for us).

Atlanta and New York, or #6 and #8 seem our most likely trade up spots to me. Things might be shaping up for us to get our guy and not give up the farm for it.

[Knightro]

With Ball allegedly the expected #1, how does that impact the rest of the board and other potential moves?

Edwards and Wiseman both available @2, the other @3.

Charlotte has no need to trade out of this scenario. GSW - let's see what they do.

@4 Chicago allegedly covet Deni

@5 Cleveland want a big. OO? Okoro?

@6 Atlanta has both Haliburton and Hayes available, and they're rumoured to want to trade out for veteran help.

@7 Detroit can take whoever is left of those two, if they haven't already traded up for 1 or 2. So this could be GSW or Minny picking.

@8 NYK really start in the worst spot. Unless Detroit take a big, then the best of the guards are gone. Now it's Kira, Maxey, Terry, Nesmith names, or one of the forwards (none of whom I like for us).

Atlanta and New York, or #6 and #8 seem our most likely trade up spots to me. Things might be shaping up for us to get our guy and not give up the farm for it.

I think Minnesota and Golden State are both very much open for business on moving the top 2 picks. Not convinced either of them would be interesting in going all the way down to 15, but I think they're both shopping around hard.

I am pretty confident Patrick Williams is going to end up somewhere in the top 10.

Which is fine by me because I'm not particularly interested in him.

[VFX]

Pointing out that most allstars are from lottery is worthless argument, draft is only path toward nba for young player and 14 out of like 45 players that even get a chance are lottery picks.
Huge chunk of players, including lottery picks are garbage players. Fact.

From 2012-2017 those are lottery picks that are either marginal nba players or outside of nba already:
2012: MKG, Thomas Robinson, Mayers Leonard, Kendall Marshall
2013: Bennett, McLemore, Alex Len, Muhammad
2014: Okafor, Vonleh, Stauskas, Exum
2015: Mudiay, Hezonja, Payne ( dishonorable mentions: Winslow and Johnson who both did nothing )
2016: Bender, Chriss, Maker,Papagiannis
2017: Ntilikina, Justin Jackson, Monk, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith

That's what? Over 30% of all lottery picks that were complete trash? I didn't even try that hard to use some guys who are just there, floating, doing nothing,trying to make last nba paycheck before being flushed like: Waiters, Zeller, Burke, MCW,Mcdermott,Pöltl, Parker, WSC...

And also this is not even me counting on painful mediocrities that are good enough to be in nba for 8 or more years but will never make impact or leave any lasting impression like Elfrid Payton, Noel, Trey Lyles, Prince, Dunn, Denzel Valentine...

But this is a league with at least 420 bodies needed.

Just so we're clear, you're going to continue to argue in bad faith? Because I know you understand what I'm talking about and are just intentionally ignoring it.

Yes, there are busts every year in the lottery. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 10. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 5.

But guess what? The bust percentage *is even greater* the further you get away from the top 5, the top 10 and the lottery.

You don't like tanking? That's fine. No one says you have to think it's a foolproof strategy or want the Magic to do it.

But ignoring the stone cold factual data that your own article cited - that a basketball team is more likely to draft an all-star player the higher their pick is - and instead trying to change the argument to "well the percentage of finding a quality player in the lottery is still so low that the Magic shouldn't tank!" is in such a bad faith that I can't in good conscious continue to have this discussion with you because you clearly know better and are ignoring basic facts intentionally.

I've never been one for tanking per say... but strategic step backs to make large steps forwards i can get behind.

Many might disagree... but us keeping vuc and fournier and some of the other vets were necessary in boueying the team and developing the desired culture and winning mentality while particular core players have a chance to grow and become better versions of themselves Putting too much pressure on Isaac and bamba during their needed GAINZa and fultz during rehab and re-acclimation, too much responsibility from the get-go could have resulted in different trajectories in their careers. IF the organization is now comfortable with their progress physically and mentally... this is the time that they can start shouldering more of the load.

If they are willing to give up anything of value to move up in the draft... they see the team is beginning to develop into possibly what they are envisioning...and they see that there is a player at the top that help complete this picture. We have seen John and Jeff be methodical about there moves up until now and the way they deal with things... i don't think that's about to change now. Even if we cannot decipher their plans and want to paint a broad paint brush of... "They only like long bois with no skill"... there is a method to their madness.

So ... if they start making moves that might include vets for younger pieces... there is also a method to their madness again... with calculated risks. And that calculation might include getting a player that they think will fit perfectly with the culture and team concept... fill in gaps and produce short term and long term success... or a piece that is going to have a long term effect while taking a step back and positioning themselves for a strong play in the next draft.

And some players may be moved to fill in the lineups for other talents that fit the team trajectory from this point on.

Our higher ups keep most of their stuff close to their chests... so we can only surmise what the bigger picture is. But since they are not the careless bunch... i personally assume that there is much more than meets the eyes... and later on it might all make sense. And yes... I say MIGHT because there are no guarantees at all in this league.

This is a fallacy that I wish people would stop using as a “reason” against attempting to get better odds. This is a down year without Isaac regardless.

That comes down to talent. Period.

People arguing the spurs have “great culture” and a hunger for “winning” must also not believe they finished with a worse record than Orlando this season. Why is that? Because they lack talent that they previously had. Not because of some perceived culture, HOF coach, better scouting, and superior development program.

This roster has been running the same offense for nearly a decade. If it’s time to take a step back, then so be it.

[Nyce_1]

New ESPN Mock draft dropping Wednesday. looking forward to seeing who Givony has us taking 1 week now.

[basketballRob]

The new draftnet mock has us taking Maledon.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Skin]

Maybe SGA or Ron Harper. He has size and a great handle, that's rare. I saw it in Doncic before the draft. When you have size and can handle the ball like Kyrie, it's a recipe for success.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

SGA and Harper are not stars though. Haliburton can only dream of having Kyrie's handle too.

I think SGA will be an allstar soon. Haliburton could even be better than him.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Ok. Well you said something bold but didn't convince me yet.

[yoyojw17]

Just so we're clear, you're going to continue to argue in bad faith? Because I know you understand what I'm talking about and are just intentionally ignoring it.

Yes, there are busts every year in the lottery. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 10. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 5.

But guess what? The bust percentage *is even greater* the further you get away from the top 5, the top 10 and the lottery.

You don't like tanking? That's fine. No one says you have to think it's a foolproof strategy or want the Magic to do it.

But ignoring the stone cold factual data that your own article cited - that a basketball team is more likely to draft an all-star player the higher their pick is - and instead trying to change the argument to "well the percentage of finding a quality player in the lottery is still so low that the Magic shouldn't tank!" is in such a bad faith that I can't in good conscious continue to have this discussion with you because you clearly know better and are ignoring basic facts intentionally.

I've never been one for tanking per say... but strategic step backs to make large steps forwards i can get behind.

Many might disagree... but us keeping vuc and fournier and some of the other vets were necessary in boueying the team and developing the desired culture and winning mentality while particular core players have a chance to grow and become better versions of themselves Putting too much pressure on Isaac and bamba during their needed GAINZa and fultz during rehab and re-acclimation, too much responsibility from the get-go could have resulted in different trajectories in their careers. IF the organization is now comfortable with their progress physically and mentally... this is the time that they can start shouldering more of the load.

If they are willing to give up anything of value to move up in the draft... they see the team is beginning to develop into possibly what they are envisioning...and they see that there is a player at the top that help complete this picture. We have seen John and Jeff be methodical about there moves up until now and the way they deal with things... i don't think that's about to change now. Even if we cannot decipher their plans and want to paint a broad paint brush of... "They only like long bois with no skill"... there is a method to their madness.

So ... if they start making moves that might include vets for younger pieces... there is also a method to their madness again... with calculated risks. And that calculation might include getting a player that they think will fit perfectly with the culture and team concept... fill in gaps and produce short term and long term success... or a piece that is going to have a long term effect while taking a step back and positioning themselves for a strong play in the next draft.

And some players may be moved to fill in the lineups for other talents that fit the team trajectory from this point on.

Our higher ups keep most of their stuff close to their chests... so we can only surmise what the bigger picture is. But since they are not the careless bunch... i personally assume that there is much more than meets the eyes... and later on it might all make sense. And yes... I say MIGHT because there are no guarantees at all in this league.

This is a fallacy that I wish people would stop using as a “reason” against attempting to get better odds. This is a down year without Isaac regardless.

That comes down to talent. Period.

People arguing the spurs have “great culture” and a hunger for “winning” must also not believe they finished with a worse record than Orlando this season. Why is that? Because they lack talent that they previously had. Not because of some perceived culture, HOF coach, better scouting, and superior development program.

This roster has been running the same offense for nearly a decade. If it’s time to take a step back, then so be it.

I didn't say it guarantees wins.... i said thata it's a culture... a way of thinking... so that as changes come along and better talents and fits are added... there is a foundation that is built upon that players will live by. But proper team play, balance and cohesion are an important part of any successful team.... mixed with the talent. And as i saiiiiid ... if they decide that the way to go is to retool using particular players because they have more confidence in the younger players.... then take that step back.

[KillMonger]

The new draftnet mock has us taking Maledon.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[pepe1991]

Just so we're clear, you're going to continue to argue in bad faith? Because I know you understand what I'm talking about and are just intentionally ignoring it.

Yes, there are busts every year in the lottery. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 10. Yes, there are busts every year in the top 5.

But guess what? The bust percentage *is even greater* the further you get away from the top 5, the top 10 and the lottery.

You don't like tanking? That's fine. No one says you have to think it's a foolproof strategy or want the Magic to do it.

But ignoring the stone cold factual data that your own article cited - that a basketball team is more likely to draft an all-star player the higher their pick is - and instead trying to change the argument to "well the percentage of finding a quality player in the lottery is still so low that the Magic shouldn't tank!" is in such a bad faith that I can't in good conscious continue to have this discussion with you because you clearly know better and are ignoring basic facts intentionally.

I've never been one for tanking per say... but strategic step backs to make large steps forwards i can get behind.

Many might disagree... but us keeping vuc and fournier and some of the other vets were necessary in boueying the team and developing the desired culture and winning mentality while particular core players have a chance to grow and become better versions of themselves Putting too much pressure on Isaac and bamba during their needed GAINZa and fultz during rehab and re-acclimation, too much responsibility from the get-go could have resulted in different trajectories in their careers. IF the organization is now comfortable with their progress physically and mentally... this is the time that they can start shouldering more of the load.

If they are willing to give up anything of value to move up in the draft... they see the team is beginning to develop into possibly what they are envisioning...and they see that there is a player at the top that help complete this picture. We have seen John and Jeff be methodical about there moves up until now and the way they deal with things... i don't think that's about to change now. Even if we cannot decipher their plans and want to paint a broad paint brush of... "They only like long bois with no skill"... there is a method to their madness.

So ... if they start making moves that might include vets for younger pieces... there is also a method to their madness again... with calculated risks. And that calculation might include getting a player that they think will fit perfectly with the culture and team concept... fill in gaps and produce short term and long term success... or a piece that is going to have a long term effect while taking a step back and positioning themselves for a strong play in the next draft.

And some players may be moved to fill in the lineups for other talents that fit the team trajectory from this point on.

Our higher ups keep most of their stuff close to their chests... so we can only surmise what the bigger picture is. But since they are not the careless bunch... i personally assume that there is much more than meets the eyes... and later on it might all make sense. And yes... I say MIGHT because there are no guarantees at all in this league.

This is a fallacy that I wish people would stop using as a “reason” against attempting to get better odds. This is a down year without Isaac regardless.

That comes down to talent. Period.

People arguing the spurs have “great culture” and a hunger for “winning” must also not believe they finished with a worse record than Orlando this season. Why is that? Because they lack talent that they previously had. Not because of some perceived culture, HOF coach, better scouting, and superior development program.

This roster has been running the same offense for nearly a decade. If it’s time to take a step back, then so be it.

What probability?

Worst team in nba has 14% chance landing top pick, team with 6th worst record and probably 10 wins more -has 9%

Team with the worst record has 40,1% chance drafting within top 3 pick.
6th worst team has 27,6%

Team with the worst record has whooping 47,9% chance at drafting -5th.
Team with 6th worst record will probably draft 7th or 8th. Or win lottery. Their odds of winning are almost the same.

Pelicans won Zion Williams draft with 8th worst record but once again, it's not suprising if you know 8th worst record has 6% chance to draft first, compared to the worst team that has just 14%.

You CAN'T PLOT path toward high pick and view it as strategy. It's like taking million dollar studen loan because you belive you will win lottery.

Teams don't move young great players if they are not landing superstars. In general teams don't move great young players all together. Magic any trade involving Vuc, Evan or Gordon will land them bunch of unproven ( or proven to be bad) young players or expiring contracts. But it's baffling to assume Magic will do anything with cap space with 25 wins.

What i find so confusing about this board this year is why people want to move up in draft if they still have no clue who to draft. What's so bad at staying 15? What's there at 2# that won't be at 8,9, 10 or 15? So desparate to draft Lamelo Ball?

Magic have Okeke as rookie already.
Why not just do potential Tony Snell and Pistons pick for Gordon and Magic pick swap to move few spots? You can still draft Nesmith, Haliburton or Vassell.

I flat out don't understand fascination with 2# pick if you know you will have to take some dead cap like Wiggins to get there.

I'm 100% confident that if Darious Garland, with 5 college games played and that stat line was this year aveliable on draft- guy would go 1# . Not to mention i still think he has bigger chance at becomming above average PG than most of 2020 draftee PGs.

[VFX]

I've never been one for tanking per say... but strategic step backs to make large steps forwards i can get behind.

Many might disagree... but us keeping vuc and fournier and some of the other vets were necessary in boueying the team and developing the desired culture and winning mentality while particular core players have a chance to grow and become better versions of themselves Putting too much pressure on Isaac and bamba during their needed GAINZa and fultz during rehab and re-acclimation, too much responsibility from the get-go could have resulted in different trajectories in their careers. IF the organization is now comfortable with their progress physically and mentally... this is the time that they can start shouldering more of the load.

If they are willing to give up anything of value to move up in the draft... they see the team is beginning to develop into possibly what they are envisioning...and they see that there is a player at the top that help complete this picture. We have seen John and Jeff be methodical about there moves up until now and the way they deal with things... i don't think that's about to change now. Even if we cannot decipher their plans and want to paint a broad paint brush of... "They only like long bois with no skill"... there is a method to their madness.

So ... if they start making moves that might include vets for younger pieces... there is also a method to their madness again... with calculated risks. And that calculation might include getting a player that they think will fit perfectly with the culture and team concept... fill in gaps and produce short term and long term success... or a piece that is going to have a long term effect while taking a step back and positioning themselves for a strong play in the next draft.

And some players may be moved to fill in the lineups for other talents that fit the team trajectory from this point on.

Our higher ups keep most of their stuff close to their chests... so we can only surmise what the bigger picture is. But since they are not the careless bunch... i personally assume that there is much more than meets the eyes... and later on it might all make sense. And yes... I say MIGHT because there are no guarantees at all in this league.

This is a fallacy that I wish people would stop using as a “reason” against attempting to get better odds. This is a down year without Isaac regardless.

That comes down to talent. Period.

People arguing the spurs have “great culture” and a hunger for “winning” must also not believe they finished with a worse record than Orlando this season. Why is that? Because they lack talent that they previously had. Not because of some perceived culture, HOF coach, better scouting, and superior development program.

This roster has been running the same offense for nearly a decade. If it’s time to take a step back, then so be it.

What probability?

Worst team in nba has 14% chance landing top pick, team with 6th worst record and probably 10 wins more -has 9%

Team with the worst record has 40,1% chance drafting within top 3 pick.
6th worst team has 27,6%

Team with the worst record has whooping 47,9% chance at drafting -5th.
Team with 6th worst record will probably draft 7th or 8th. Or win lottery. Their odds of winning are almost the same.

Pelicans won Zion Williams draft with 8th worst record but once again, it's not suprising if you know 8th worst record has 6% chance to draft first, compared to the worst team that has just 14%.

You CAN'T PLOT path toward high pick and view it as strategy. It's like taking million dollar studen loan because you belive you will win lottery.

Teams don't move young great players if they are not landing superstars. In general teams don't move great young players all together. Magic any trade involving Vuc, Evan or Gordon will land them bunch of unproven ( or proven to be bad) young players or expiring contracts. But it's baffling to assume Magic will do anything with cap space with 25 wins.

What i find so confusing about this board this year is why people want to move up in draft if they still have no clue who to draft. What's so bad at staying 15? What's there at 2# that won't be at 8,9, 10 or 15? So desparate to draft Lamelo Ball?

Magic have Okeke as rookie already.
Why not just do potential Tony Snell and Pistons pick for Gordon and Magic pick swap to move few spots? You can still draft Nesmith, Haliburton or Vassell.

I flat out don't understand fascination with 2# pick if you know you will have to take some dead cap like Wiggins to get there.

I'm 100% confident that if Darious Garland, with 5 college games played and that stat line was this year aveliable on draft- guy would go 1# . Not to mention i still think he has bigger chance at becomming above average PG than most of 2020 draftee PGs.

So your takeaways-

1- Some players are busts
2- The draft lottery is a lottery
3- You disagree with trading up in a draft because you personally dislike the options...

Ok.

All draft prospects are unproven. I’d rather our FO making a calculated move for a player they believe in, rather than let the draft 100% dictate their options like they’ve done every year so far.

One of Edwards, Hayes, Haliburton, or Deni will become a good to great nba player. History tells us those odds have a high probability of hitting. I’d be ok with Orlando selecting whoever they deem the best option should they believe trading up is a wise decision. There are even players at 15 I like in that spot, but I think they have a lesser chance at panning out.

To the topic at hand... No, I don’t see a downside to Orlando trading vets, in a projected down year without Isaac, to land better talent. I would rather they do it now while the time makes sense.