The Tobias Harris Situation

[tooler]

I wish there was a way to only filter through the great discussion on here. Certain posts drive me away, but then I come right back for the good stuff that gives me a greater appreciation for this sport and business.

[purpleswordfish]

No need to laugh about it. Like mentioned, Kawhi Leonard knows he will get a max offer from the Spurs (or anyone else) and he can wait a little while to give them breathing room.

Tobias might realize he's not a true max player and jump on an offer right away. Or everyone could negotiate and get on board beforehand. Who knows what will happen.

In the real world, not everything is as cut and dry as "you do what's best for you." Sometimes you can work together and create something even greater.

As I said -- you did read my entire post, right? -- Tobias has every right to do what he wants and I won't blame him. But he does have an option to get on board and we'll get an indication of his intentions that way. No big deal.

I read the entire post before I quoted it with my own. I still disagree. There are people out there in the world that can read/hear what you have to say and not agree with it.

[tiderulz]

No need to laugh about it. Like mentioned, Kawhi Leonard knows he will get a max offer from the Spurs (or anyone else) and he can wait a little while to give them breathing room.

Tobias might realize he's not a true max player and jump on an offer right away. Or everyone could negotiate and get on board beforehand. Who knows what will happen.

In the real world, not everything is as cut and dry as "you do what's best for you." Sometimes you can work together and create something even greater.

As I said -- you did read my entire post, right? -- Tobias has every right to do what he wants and I won't blame him. But he does have an option to get on board and we'll get an indication of his intentions that way. No big deal.

different situations. SA has done everything to assure Kawhi that is he a core player and part of their future. Same hasnt been done for Harris.

hasn't it, though? Hennigan has never wavered from "We plan to match whatever offer Tobias gets". Yea we're not willing to max him out right out of the gate, but the Magic have, at least publicly, stated they plan to keep Tobias.

It could be as simple as Harris getting a call from a few teams, calling Rob and saying "Teams are offering me this much" and Hennigan saying "Ok, we'll match it, just let us sign _____ first."

We really don't know enough about what's going on.

was Kawhi pushed to the bench in favor of a lesser player? Does Kawhi have plays run for him?

As for Hennigans statements, that could be viewed as pre-empting other teams from even offering Harris a contract, hence why the Players Union has gone on record against those types of statements. Rob could be completely genuine in those statements, or he could be trying to limit contract offers to Harris.

[purpleswordfish]

I wish there was a way to only filter through the great discussion on here. Certain posts drive me away, but then I come right back for the good stuff that gives me a greater appreciation for this sport and business.

There's a real nice block function that you can use to only see the posts of people that agree with everything you have to say.

[The Other Ankle]

No need to laugh about it. Like mentioned, Kawhi Leonard knows he will get a max offer from the Spurs (or anyone else) and he can wait a little while to give them breathing room.

Tobias might realize he's not a true max player and jump on an offer right away. Or everyone could negotiate and get on board beforehand. Who knows what will happen.

In the real world, not everything is as cut and dry as "you do what's best for you." Sometimes you can work together and create something even greater.

As I said -- you did read my entire post, right? -- Tobias has every right to do what he wants and I won't blame him. But he does have an option to get on board and we'll get an indication of his intentions that way. No big deal.

different situations. SA has done everything to assure Kawhi that is he a core player and part of their future. Same hasnt been done for Harris.

hasn't it, though? Hennigan has never wavered from "We plan to match whatever offer Tobias gets". Yea we're not willing to max him out right out of the gate, but the Magic have, at least publicly, stated they plan to keep Tobias.

It could be as simple as Harris getting a call from a few teams, calling Rob and saying "Teams are offering me this much" and Hennigan saying "Ok, we'll match it, just let us sign _____ first."

We really don't know enough about what's going on.

Hey wait: You're completely spoiling the narrative where Tobias has somehow been demeaned by this process, despite the repeated public praise of him as a player and a person by management! Apparently this is important to some people around here...

[tooler]

I read the entire post before I quoted it with my own. I still disagree. There are people out there in the world that can read/hear what you have to say and not agree with it.

People can disagree without typing "LMAO," or a thinly-veiled contrarian sneer in every single post.

Plenty of room here with us to have a genuine discussion.

[tiderulz]

LMAO @ the idea of "being a team player" in free agency. In any business, you do what's best for you and your family, not what's best for the employer that lowballed you a year ago.

If he tries to be a team player by holding out on signing an offer sheet until the Magic sign someone, he risks losing that offer sheet and getting a smaller deal.

For any player, if you have a good deal offered to you and you think it's the best you get, you pounce. Sure, you would like to help your team out as best you can. But at the end of the day you've got to look out for your family first and foremost.

As fans we can hope that maybe Tobias doesn't get that actual offer right away, maybe Orlando signs their guy right before Tobias signs his offer sheet. But that's about it.

Plenty of reasons to cooperate, unless you think the first offer will be the only one or you actually prefer to play elsewhere. A new situation will involve many risks and challenges compared to returning, not to mention the logistics of uprooting lives. Look at how often new players simply do not fit (Rondo & Stephenson come to mind last year). Staying with the original team is the most likely outcome, even when an outright adversarial offer gets signed. And these kind of offers usually hurt the team making them more due to renouncing their own free agents and ending up with nothing.

Negotiations with other teams usually lead to establishing value moreso than accepting offers, or having a signed offer not be matched. Plus, there's an entire week where nothing can be signed. So there is plenty of opportunity for communication. "Being a team player" is usually in the interest of the player as well as the team, given there is a high probability that this is where he's going to play for the foreseeable future. Pissing in the cornflakes with an awkward offer is more likely to lead to a future trade in which the player is not advised or consulted about his preferences.

Tobias' family will be fine and he probably played better without having been extended due to basic human nature. There's a reason the call it a "Contract Year" and that players across the board have upticks in performance under conditions of proving their worth. So he'll be better off in general, even if some posters feel the need to take up for him like he as been mistreated in some way. Not signing a restricted free agent to a huge extension a year before necessary isn't a slight. It's the normal course of action. Both Harris and the Magic are in a better position because of it, even if a small number of posters on this site have taken offense.

taking devil's advocate, why cooperate when the only offer you have gotten so far was a low ball offer with no negotiation after? He could wait and wait and then receive another lowball offer and be stuck. As for being a "team player" thats all nice with sunshines and rainbows, until the team changes its mind. Ask Jameer, who signed a "team" deal to be on a contender with Dallas, and ended up in Denver many trades later.

[tooler]

I think calling Jameer's situation a "team" deal is completely misreading it. The analogy would be if he had stayed here in a lesser role. Instead he wanted to win and gave it a shot, and it didn't work out.

That sort of proves The Other Ankle's point.

He also provided plausible reasons why it might be in Tobias's best interest to "cooperate." Did you disagree with those?

It's not even asking for much; not like they want him to take a pay cut. Just wait a day to grab an extra free agent due to cap weirdness.

[tiderulz]

I think calling Jameer's situation a "team" deal is completely misreading it. The analogy would be if he had stayed here in a lesser role. Instead he wanted to win and gave it a shot, and it didn't work out.

That sort of proves The Other Ankle's point.

He also provided plausible reasons why it might be in Tobias's best interest to "cooperate." Did you disagree with those?

It's not even asking for much; not like they want him to take a pay cut. Just wait a day to grab an extra free agent due to cap weirdness.

I really only saw 1 reason, the new situation thing. TMac came into a new situation and blossomed here. James Harden went to a new situation and blew up even more in Houston. Reggie Jackson was stuck in OKC and offered a lesser contract, and now will get a better contract at a new place in Detroit. So there is risk, but it has worked out as well as it hasnt.

[Tayswagzzz]

I'd like to see Jameer come back here for a mentor role or go to the clips with some of his old buddies and back-up for cp3.

[The Other Ankle]

I think calling Jameer's situation a "team" deal is completely misreading it. The analogy would be if he had stayed here in a lesser role. Instead he wanted to win and gave it a shot, and it didn't work out.

That sort of proves The Other Ankle's point.

He also provided plausible reasons why it might be in Tobias's best interest to "cooperate." Did you disagree with those?

It's not even asking for much; not like they want him to take a pay cut. Just wait a day to grab an extra free agent due to cap weirdness.

I really only saw 1 reason, the new situation thing. TMac came into a new situation and blossomed here. James Harden went to a new situation and blew up even more in Houston. Reggie Jackson was stuck in OKC and offered a lesser contract, and now will get a better contract at a new place in Detroit. So there is risk, but it has worked out as well as it hasnt.

It's obvious that you start typing before you read or process. You don't have to point that out!

Your sig is nice to look at though... So there is that!

[mojosodope]

maybe in a "friendly" negotiation you have a player cooperating with management like some of you have described, but usually management shows how much they value said player prior to contract negotiations. There is a reason we havn't heard a thing from tobias, not even about the Skilles hiring

You don't even have to get into the debatable on-the-court issues Harris might have with the Magic to realize how there might be a disconnect in contract negotiation. Things such as a Lowball extension offer, Hiring of the coach who we "freed" him from and our continual drafting of wing players have probably not given Harris the biggest vote of confidence about his place in the Magic Organization

[tiderulz]

I think calling Jameer's situation a "team" deal is completely misreading it. The analogy would be if he had stayed here in a lesser role. Instead he wanted to win and gave it a shot, and it didn't work out.

That sort of proves The Other Ankle's point.

He also provided plausible reasons why it might be in Tobias's best interest to "cooperate." Did you disagree with those?

It's not even asking for much; not like they want him to take a pay cut. Just wait a day to grab an extra free agent due to cap weirdness.

I really only saw 1 reason, the new situation thing. TMac came into a new situation and blossomed here. James Harden went to a new situation and blew up even more in Houston. Reggie Jackson was stuck in OKC and offered a lesser contract, and now will get a better contract at a new place in Detroit. So there is risk, but it has worked out as well as it hasnt.

It's obvious that you start typing before you read or process. You don't have to point that out!

Your sig is nice to look at though... So there is that!

you dont think i read before i type?

whatever. Im willing to debate points of view about the team and players. if you want to just criticize me for nothing, feel free, but i wont engage in it.

[The Other Ankle]

I really only saw 1 reason, the new situation thing. TMac came into a new situation and blossomed here. James Harden went to a new situation and blew up even more in Houston. Reggie Jackson was stuck in OKC and offered a lesser contract, and now will get a better contract at a new place in Detroit. So there is risk, but it has worked out as well as it hasnt.

It's obvious that you start typing before you read or process. You don't have to point that out!

Your sig is nice to look at though... So there is that!

you dont think i read before i type?

whatever. Im willing to debate points of view about the team and players. if you want to just criticize me for nothing, feel free, but i wont engage in it.

I really only saw 1 reason, the new situation thing.

Followed by completely extraneous references about how sometimes players do well when they move.

I'm sure that you could have responded less meaningfully. But it's not a debate when you completely miss the point and you engage every time you hit "Submit".

[tiderulz]

It's obvious that you start typing before you read or process. You don't have to point that out!

Your sig is nice to look at though... So there is that!

you dont think i read before i type?

whatever. Im willing to debate points of view about the team and players. if you want to just criticize me for nothing, feel free, but i wont engage in it.

I really only saw 1 reason, the new situation thing.

Followed by completely extraneous references about how sometimes players do well when they move.

I'm sure that you could have responded less meaningfully. But it's not a debate when you completely miss the point and you engage every time you hit "Submit".

the "extraneous reference" was the subject he brought up.

A new situation will involve many risks and challenges compared to returning, not to mention the logistics of uprooting lives. Look at how often new players simply do not fit (Rondo & Stephenson come to mind last year).

[The Other Ankle]

the "extraneous reference" was the subject he brought up.

A new situation will involve many risks and challenges compared to returning, not to mention the logistics of uprooting lives. Look at how often new players simply do not fit (Rondo & Stephenson come to mind last year).

The extraneous part was what you added, as in having little to do with the point.

But thank you for showing us that girl on your sig again!

[fateis007]

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Let’s see which NBA forwards have produced like a superstar VF this season. The elite VFs must be able to score and rebound. They must also be able to shoot 3s. This season, only six players averaged at least 15 points and 6 rebounds per game, while also shooting 35% (on at least two 3-point attempts per game). Only six VFs met these minimum requirements. They were Love, Millsap, Bosh, Durant, LeBron, and our mystery man.

Who might be missing? This grossly undervalued NBA player is not only among the NBA’s elite VFs, but also the youngest by four years to make the list.

This player is only the 4th player in the last five seasons to meet the minimum requirements outlined above while still 22 years old or younger. The others were Love, Durant and George.

The NBA’s most underrated player is Tobias Harris.

The pick and roll is a staple of the modern NBA offense. Big men with limited shooting or ball handling skills are relegated to rolling, but occasionally, a forward comes along that is also efficient handling the ball off of screens, opening up the possibility for the offense to create defensive mismatches.

Harris had 150 possessions as the ball handler, and he was actually Orlando’s most efficient player in those situations. The table below shows the pick and roll ball handler statistics for the Magic this season (as recorded by Synergy).

Harris averaged 0.85 points per possession. That’s considerably better than the league average of 0.79. For comparison, Harris’s 0.85 points per possession was better than that of Eric Bledsoe, Rudy Gay, Monta Ellis, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, John Wall, and Dwyane Wade.

The chart below displays the DPA, points allowed on DPA, and FGM on DPA per 48 minutes played for six Orlando Magic. These are the six Magic that played at least 1000 minutes in 2014-15.

Orlando Defense on DPA

DPA

Tobias had the fewest DPA, the fewest points allowed and the fewest FGM against. All of the data suggests that Tobias is either proficient at preventing shots when opponents attack him or opponents are not choosing to attack Tobias as often as his teammates. In either case, the data supports that Tobias is a capable defender.

On the DPA, opponents shot 38% against Tobias. That number is respectable. For comparison, Oladipo and Payton both allowed opponents to shoot 44%. When we factor in the low rate at which Tobias allows shots, we see his overall defensive performance is quite impressive. Tobias allowed 2.51 FGM per 48 minutes played. Harris played 34.8 minutes per game. So, he allowed 1.82 FGM on DPA per game. Even if Harris had held opponents to a ridiculously low 28% shooting on DPA, it would have only reduced is FGA against by .5 FGM per game (or 1 FG every 2 games).

The data shows that Harris is an efficient ball handler on the perimeter and possesses excellent shooting range. Does his offensive versatility extend to the post?

According to Synergy, Harris had 106 post up possessions and averaged 1.04 points per possession (PPP). He was the most efficient post up player in the NBA (among players with at least 100 post up possessions).

Check out how Harris’s post efficiency compared with some of the game’s elite post players.

[The Other Ankle]

There was risk associated with the unknown of what his value in free agency was as well. Because of the increasing salary cap alone (a KNOWN variable) his value was higher than 9M.

The reason a deal gets done early is because a player removes the risk of having to play out a season and management removes the risk of a player's value increasing significantly.

A large part of Harris' rise in market value is the change in salary cap which was KNOWN and I believe we should have capitalized on this variable last season.

You can continue to rationalize it all you want, but besides the 3-4m we could have saved I believe there are benefits that are associated with locking in your "better" players who are good locker room guys and represent you well on and off the court. In hindsight I do not think there would have been any negatives associated with extending Harris last season for around 12, I stand behind that and have been saying that since last year.

I also believe there is a lot more that goes on behind the scenes during RFA negotiations that could have been avoided

Mojo, you couldn't be more wrong about the basic financial terms of risk and uncertainty as applied to restricted free agency. Using the words incorrectly shows your lack of understanding here. I know that you're highly concerned with all things related to Tobias. But to butcher the most basic relationship in finance doesn't help your case. Try taking your Harris glasses off rather than trying to rewrite the relationship between risk and return. Because even though you can post an indefinite number of times on a sports fan site, I doubt that you have the ability to rewrite every finance textbook in existence!

Signing early gets a smaller contract for the same player than signing a year later. This is an example of the fundamental relationship in all of finance. There is a discount for guaranteeing payment for services that won't even start for another year. The discount in this case relates to the year moreso than the player in particular. Add in a fairly broad range of performance projections and some history of (minor) health considerations, and the discount for someone like Harris would have needed to be more than average.

Restricted free agency does exactly what it sounds like. It restricts the players options and leverage severely. Your assertion that Harris would have taken 80% of the absolute maximum that he would be allowed under the CBA is actually an indication that he should not have been extended. We get that you are a fan of Harris to the point where you want to argue about these things. But you seem to be blind to the other side of the argument that has filled up 109 pages and counting: There were and remain questions about Tobias.

This is not a slight, it is a fact. There are questions about almost all young players. Tobias simply rated taking the extra year allowed to evaluate. The fact that he showed some improvement combined with staying relatively injury free means he will likely get a nice contract. If you want to see things from Harris' point of view, fine, just be happy for him. But the sheer flexibility of having not signed Harris early was almost a no-brainer for management. The available cap room under Tobias' $5 million cap hold is reason enough to have NOT signed him because it could lead to signing a max level free agent while still retaining Harris. If we had extended Harris, we would have had about $7 million less to spend this Summer. If you look at things from the point of the team and not the player, there are lots of reasons for management taken the exact actions that they have, and very few reasons to go on about it at all.

THE TOBIAS HARRIS non-SITUATION will be over soon! Hopefully it will end with both Harris and a really good free-agent on our team!

Under normal circumstances the discount would work just as you described, but the rising salary cap makes things a little different because teams will be spending in anticipation of the new salary cap.

Tell me what was Harris' value last season during the period we could have extended him. With all the salary cap variables It's pretty had to even determine that in hindsight, but I will say 9m was probably a lot less, 12 MAY have been high under the old salary cap, but essentially a discount under the new.

That is ALL before this season of play.

I get what you are saying, but entering RFA adds a different dynamic. By being restricted teams assume that that you have to OVER-pay to snag said player. This alone raises the player's market value. By allowing a player to enter RFA we are essentially gambling that Harris would not receive an outrageous offer.

Being that it was KNOWN the salary cap was increasing significantly I believe it made sense to extend him last year, or at least try to above 9m.

Reports that Harris would have settled for 80% of his max pretty much makes sense to me and I think management should have basically figured out that they could have negotiated above 9m.

After the salary cap spike, how much percentage wise would a 12m contract be of the cap?

Mojo,

We're REALLY close here. But we're interpreting the information differently. Tell me if this makes sense to you more based on these facts:

1) The cap will go up dramatically NEXT Summer and all contacts signed started July of 2016 will be much higher.

2) But the maximum contract amount for THIS Summer is limited by the current salary cap to an amount about 40% less than next year.

3) You are viewing the asking price of 80% of the current max as reasonable a year ago, because salaries will go up NEXT year.

4) I am saying that the flexibility of NOT extending was worth more than the 20% maximum additional that it could cost the Magic this year.

5) By not extending, many more positive outcomes were available than by extending, including the possibility that Harris would perform well and rate a $15 million starting contract.

I don't think that Rob is upset that Harris had a good year. He'll get paid and the market for his services will determine the rate. If Harris had shot at a lower percentage, been hurt more, been dramatically outplayed by a rookie, or banged the GM's wife, then he would be set to earn a good deal less this Summer. But none of that happened (that we know of...), so he's going to get paid.

In the meantime, we MIGHT add another near-max player this Summer in addition to Harris. That's the only part of this that I find interesting, and it was only possible under the scenario where Harris was not extended prior to last season.

There are a very limited number of teams that have cap space this year to sign a NEW player to a $10-plus million contract and we are one of them. That is based on the cap figure of $5 million for Tobias that sits there until he is either re-signed by us, or signs an offer from another team. Whether we add such a player or not is yet to be seen. But we have a shot to improve by adding a starter-level free agent and I'm psyched about it!

So I'm thankful that we have that chance based on not extending Harris. He should be thankful too, because his payday got bigger and we might be getting much better as a team. Want to join me in being hopeful and thankful about the position we are in heading into free agency? The Tobias contract will be settled soon enough and I doubt it will be a big deal whatever he gets. But we could welcome veteran player X who leads on and off of the court and helps us get into the playoffs next year! It may not happen, but that's where I want to live until all this shakes out.

[Neon1]

...

[tooler]

That's God's work, right there. Bravo.