The Tobias Harris Situation

[Viper1500]

Whether I agree with you or not, great post.

[mojosodope]

Mojo, you couldn't be more wrong about the basic financial terms of risk and uncertainty as applied to restricted free agency. Using the words incorrectly shows your lack of understanding here. I know that you're highly concerned with all things related to Tobias. But to butcher the most basic relationship in finance doesn't help your case. Try taking your Harris glasses off rather than trying to rewrite the relationship between risk and return. Because even though you can post an indefinite number of times on a sports fan site, I doubt that you have the ability to rewrite every finance textbook in existence!

Signing early gets a smaller contract for the same player than signing a year later. This is an example of the fundamental relationship in all of finance. There is a discount for guaranteeing payment for services that won't even start for another year. The discount in this case relates to the year moreso than the player in particular. Add in a fairly broad range of performance projections and some history of (minor) health considerations, and the discount for someone like Harris would have needed to be more than average.

Restricted free agency does exactly what it sounds like. It restricts the players options and leverage severely. Your assertion that Harris would have taken 80% of the absolute maximum that he would be allowed under the CBA is actually an indication that he should not have been extended. We get that you are a fan of Harris to the point where you want to argue about these things. But you seem to be blind to the other side of the argument that has filled up 109 pages and counting: There were and remain questions about Tobias.

This is not a slight, it is a fact. There are questions about almost all young players. Tobias simply rated taking the extra year allowed to evaluate. The fact that he showed some improvement combined with staying relatively injury free means he will likely get a nice contract. If you want to see things from Harris' point of view, fine, just be happy for him. But the sheer flexibility of having not signed Harris early was almost a no-brainer for management. The available cap room under Tobias' $5 million cap hold is reason enough to have NOT signed him because it could lead to signing a max level free agent while still retaining Harris. If we had extended Harris, we would have had about $7 million less to spend this Summer. If you look at things from the point of the team and not the player, there are lots of reasons for management taken the exact actions that they have, and very few reasons to go on about it at all.

THE TOBIAS HARRIS non-SITUATION will be over soon! Hopefully it will end with both Harris and a really good free-agent on our team!

Under normal circumstances the discount would work just as you described, but the rising salary cap makes things a little different because teams will be spending in anticipation of the new salary cap.

Tell me what was Harris' value last season during the period we could have extended him. With all the salary cap variables It's pretty had to even determine that in hindsight, but I will say 9m was probably a lot less, 12 MAY have been high under the old salary cap, but essentially a discount under the new.

That is ALL before this season of play.

I get what you are saying, but entering RFA adds a different dynamic. By being restricted teams assume that that you have to OVER-pay to snag said player. This alone raises the player's market value. By allowing a player to enter RFA we are essentially gambling that Harris would not receive an outrageous offer.

Being that it was KNOWN the salary cap was increasing significantly I believe it made sense to extend him last year, or at least try to above 9m.

Reports that Harris would have settled for 80% of his max pretty much makes sense to me and I think management should have basically figured out that they could have negotiated above 9m.

After the salary cap spike, how much percentage wise would a 12m contract be of the cap?

Mojo,

We're REALLY close here. But we're interpreting the information differently. Tell me if this makes sense to you more based on these facts:

1) The cap will go up dramatically NEXT Summer and all contacts signed started July of 2016 will be much higher.

2) But the maximum contract amount for THIS Summer is limited by the current salary cap to an amount about 40% less than next year.

3) You are viewing the asking price of 80% of the current max as reasonable a year ago, because salaries will go up NEXT year.

4) I am saying that the flexibility of NOT extending was worth more than the 20% maximum additional that it could cost the Magic this year.

5) By not extending, many more positive outcomes were available than by extending, including the possibility that Harris would perform well and rate a $15 million starting contract.

I don't think that Rob is upset that Harris had a good year. He'll get paid and the market for his services will determine the rate. If Harris had shot at a lower percentage, been hurt more, been dramatically outplayed by a rookie, or banged the GM's wife, then he would be set to earn a good deal less this Summer. But none of that happened (that we know of...), so he's going to get paid.

In the meantime, we MIGHT add another near-max player this Summer in addition to Harris. That's the only part of this that I find interesting, and it was only possible under the scenario where Harris was not extended prior to last season.

There are a very limited number of teams that have cap space this year to sign a NEW player to a $10-plus million contract and we are one of them. That is based on the cap figure of $5 million for Tobias that sits there until he is either re-signed by us, or signs an offer from another team. Whether we add such a player or not is yet to be seen. But we have a shot to improve by adding a starter-level free agent and I'm psyched about it!

So I'm thankful that we have that chance based on not extending Harris. He should be thankful too, because his payday got bigger and we might be getting much better as a team. Want to join me in being hopeful and thankful about the position we are in heading into free agency? The Tobias contract will be settled soon enough and I doubt it will be a big deal whatever he gets. But we could welcome veteran player X who leads on and off of the court and helps us get into the playoffs next year! It may not happen, but that's where I want to live until all this shakes out.

I think we are/have been arguing different things. And while I see your argument as far as cap flexibility is concerned I'm not sure 7m in cap space would have made that big of a difference.

Are we that close to the salary cap floor? This is a legitimate question because I don't see much on the books right now.

Great post, I see your perspective, I have my quips with it, but that would be for an entirely different thread

[MagicFan101]

Even if we pretend that $12M per year was the well established number that Harris wanted it still wouldn't have made sense to re-sign him given that Vuc was already signed.

Right now, we can take a swing at a max contract free agent and still have room to go over the cap to match Harris.

Had we resigned Harris last summer, we would have given up that opportunity.

Sure, it is unlikely that such a free agent will sign with us and in doing so we likely have to pay more for Harris. I get that. But eventually we have to gamble and at least try to lure a big name right?

[MrTwister]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ChrisMannixSI/status/615679174527860736[/tweet]

Well if this is price for him to stay, than i guess it would be foolish to let him go.

[Def Swami]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ChrisMannixSI/status/615679174527860736[/tweet]

Well if this is price for him to stay, than i guess it would be foolish to let him go.

He's staying if those are the #'s. $48 mill/4 years is a good, fair deal.

[BadMofoPimp]

What if New York offers that Poordingus kid and Calderon for Harris, would Magic fans or Henny do that kind of deal?

[Def Swami]

What if New York offers that Poordingus kid and Calderon for Harris, would Magic fans or Henny do that kind of deal?

If we're trying to make the playoffs next year, I'd rather keep Harris.

[Nyce_1]

If we overpay Harris $1-2 than what we would've given him last summer but got to sign a quality FA because of the available cap space, then it's a win. I never thought about that scenario this whole time.

[tooler]

He's staying if those are the #'s. $48 mill/4 years is a good, fair deal.

Hell, give him Vooch's deal and tell them both to win some **** games.

[Nemesis21]

What if New York offers that Poordingus kid and Calderon for Harris, would Magic fans or Henny do that kind of deal?

[rcklsscognition]

Henny's gonna have to overpay to get someone to commit to Orlando fast before Tobias needs to be matched and we lose our cap space. Unfortunately not sure I see a 15 mil/year player walking into our arms in free agency.

[tooler]

You guys are crazy. A #4 pick and a backup PG on a two-year contract for the right to overpay Tobias Harris? I like him and I hope he's on our team when we start to win some games, but come on.

[MagicFan101]

If we overpay Harris $1-2 than what we would've given him last summer but got to sign a quality FA because of the available cap space, then it's a win. I never thought about that scenario this whole time.

Exactly!

We can go over the cap for Harris but not for other free agents.

Unless he was going to sign for a ridiculously team friendly deal it really made no sense to sign him early.

[JTSUCF]

If NY offers that package you take it. i like Harris but if we think Hezonja is the real deal then he would start at the SF spot shortly along with the potential of AG playing minutes there. The Zinger would provide the potential for a crazy long and athletic team.

[Nyce_1]

If we overpay Harris $1-2 than what we would've given him last summer but got to sign a quality FA because of the available cap space, then it's a win. I never thought about that scenario this whole time.

Exactly!

We can go over the cap for Harris but not for other free agents.

Unless he was going to sign for a ridiculously team friendly deal it really made no sense to sign him early.

Like Vuc. Him agreeing to $12m/yr was better than any of us expected. You take that deal and run.

[nicnac215]

If NY offers that package you take it. i like Harris but if we think Hezonja is the real deal then he would start at the SF spot shortly along with the potential of AG playing minutes there. The Zinger would provide the potential for a crazy long and athletic team.

Would you trade Harris and Fournier for KP and Calderon? It would be a good trade for both side in my opinion. Harris for KP and Calderon seems too sweet for us.

[tooler]

If NY offers that package you take it. i like Harris but if we think Hezonja is the real deal then he would start at the SF spot shortly along with the potential of AG playing minutes there. The Zinger would provide the potential for a crazy long and athletic team.

Would you trade Harris and Fournier for KP and Calderon? It would be a good trade for both side in my opinion. Harris for KP and Calderon seems too sweet for us.

It does seem a little more fair and easier for Phil to sell to the media.

I'd still do it unless the FO thinks Porzingis is a sure bust. Evan wants a contract next summer too.

[ezzzp]

Porzingis + Calderon will net NY a much better return than just Harris...

...and he's not as high on their list of needs or wants as people keep trying to make it out to be.

[ezzzp]

http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/2015/06/29/go-get-paid-tobias-harris/

[Nyce_1]

Michael Scotto @MikeAScotto
Sources: Tobias Harris would prefer not to return to the Orlando Magic and play for Scott Skiles, who previously coached him in Milwaukee.