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Let's Talk About Mario

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Xatticus
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#241 » by Xatticus » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:01 am

ezzzp wrote:Thats such an oversimplification and incongruent argument.

If Fournier is not playing SF on the Magic right now, then what position is he playing? His primary defensive assignment is defending the taller of the wings - the majority of those players are 6-6 to 6-9...that is why I used that filter.

You keep telling yourself that metrics don't work for basketball, meanwhile there are 30 NBA franchises that have invested a lot of money on advanced analytics. Franchises managed by experience veterans of the industry.

But I guess you think you know more than the NBA Champions Golden State Warriors and their GM and analytics braintrust that was just awarded the Sloan Analytics Award for Best Analytics Franchise.


When did I say metrics don't work for basketball? I said there or no good ones for the vast majority of what takes place on a basketball court. These metrics are built from outdated tracking statistics that have been long overdue for a revamp.

I'm quite certain that this has already taken place within some organizations (if not all), but this is not the information you will find on basketball-reference.

I am only a proponent for a broader understanding and use of statistics in any field.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#242 » by ezzzp » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:16 am

Xatticus wrote:
ezzzp wrote:Thats such an oversimplification and incongruent argument.

If Fournier is not playing SF on the Magic right now, then what position is he playing? His primary defensive assignment is defending the taller of the wings - the majority of those players are 6-6 to 6-9...that is why I used that filter.

You keep telling yourself that metrics don't work for basketball, meanwhile there are 30 NBA franchises that have invested a lot of money on advanced analytics. Franchises managed by experience veterans of the industry.

But I guess you think you know more than the NBA Champions Golden State Warriors and their GM and analytics braintrust that was just awarded the Sloan Analytics Award for Best Analytics Franchise.


When did I say metrics don't work for basketball? I said there or no good ones for the vast majority of what takes place on a basketball court. These metrics are built from outdated tracking statistics that have been long overdue for a revamp.

I'm quite certain that this has already taken place within some organizations (if not all), but this is not the information you will find on basketball-reference.

I am only a proponent for a broader understanding and use of statistics in any field.


keep backpedalling....

...btw Synergy Sports is contracted by the NBA and all 30 NBA teams and the NBA SAP tracking stats are compiled from their tracking cameras which were only installed 2 seasons ago...but LOL yea their data is long overdue for a revamp
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#243 » by Hoyti Von Totiy » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:16 am

It´s for the best if he asks for a trade, Skiles is just not the kinda coach that will develop a rookie. He uses them as punching bags while he "develops" 30 y. olds.
Another 3 years here under Skiles are 3 years wasted. In those 3 years Orlando will maybe make the playoffs in 1 of those years.


I must say Magic are a weird franchize where the home fans cheer for a more "popular" team when they come, and also the whole franchize seems to be completely ignored by NBA.com all the time.

It like Magic is NBA´s bastard team somewhere in Venezuela. :D
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#244 » by Xatticus » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:24 am

ezzzp wrote:keep backpedalling....

...btw Synergy Sports is contracted by the NBA and all 30 NBA teams and the NBA SAP tracking stats are compiled from their tracking cameras which were only installed 2 seasons ago...but LOL yea their data is long overdue for a revamp


Right. I studied statistics because I believe it is a useless field without any practical merit.

Tracking stats as in assists, turnovers, field goal attempts, etc... There is so much more going on the floor that is not represented by such a simplistic approach. There is only so much statistical torture one can perform on these.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#245 » by ezzzp » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:51 am

Xatticus wrote:
ezzzp wrote:keep backpedalling....

...btw Synergy Sports is contracted by the NBA and all 30 NBA teams and the NBA SAP tracking stats are compiled from their tracking cameras which were only installed 2 seasons ago...but LOL yea their data is long overdue for a revamp


Right. I studied statistics because I believe it is a useless field without any practical merit.

Tracking stats as in assists, turnovers, field goal attempts, etc... There is so much more going on the floor that is not represented by such a simplistic approach. There is only so much statistical torture one can perform on these.


I quote Synergy (B-R) and SAP Tracking (NBA.com) those are not basic counting stats.

To change or eliminate the basic stats is a totally unrealistic concept. The NBA relies heavily on its history and legacy, to eliminate those fundamental numbers destroys that key aspect of their business model - it will never happen. I rarely look at basic counting stats, but the fantasy gambling sites do and they are bringing in a huge new revenue source and fan base to the league...basic counting stats aren't going anywhere.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#246 » by Xatticus » Wed Mar 23, 2016 10:17 am

ezzzp wrote:I quote Synergy (B-R) and SAP Tracking (NBA.com) those are not basic counting stats.

To change or eliminate the basic stats is a totally unrealistic concept. The NBA relies heavily on its history and legacy, to eliminate those fundamental numbers destroys that key aspect of their business model - it will never happen. I rarely look at basic counting stats, but the fantasy gambling sites do and they are bringing in a huge new revenue source and fan base to the league...basic counting stats aren't going anywhere.


I'm not actually talking about phasing them out, but rather a much more nuanced system of data tracking that offers a much better understanding of what is taking place during a game. Measure everything and sort it out later.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#247 » by monchief » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:43 am

zelenooq wrote:
monchief wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Maybe in your paralel universe we are playoff team where Hezonja is logjam prospect and Fournier is locked on 5 years team friendly deal so we have no time to develop trough playing rookie. But in my world Fournier is contract warrior who is betting on himself that he will be payed this summer, by Magic or any other team willing to pay ( probably somebody like 76ers ). And in same time Hezonja is 5# draft pick who is ranked #17 in min played by rookies. Even second round picks ( on better teams than Magic) are getting more playing time.

And talking about productivity, Batum 26 points, Lebron 18 ( when they swiched Oladipo on him ), DD 26 points, Evan Turner 16 points on 11 shots are just few of guys who destoyed Fournier on defense, Batum being worst to eye test where he was targeting Fournier whole game long. Last game is best example why long term Fournier is nowhere near player that you can keep as SF. He played 33 min against above average Eastern team, he went 5-16 , but ok, he didn't have his best night, HOWEVER how da F starting SF in this league can finish game with ZERO REBOUNDS???? To go with TWO FREAKING ASSISTS ONLY? What a hell he can do at SF really? He can't defend, can't block shots (4 blocks in almost 65+ games) ,he is average at stealing balls, he can't rebound and he is selfish passer for player with high usage ( 2,7 apg puts him in Harris range -below average for SF ). Just what a hell makes him good ? Dude is second offensive option on a team right now ( 4 games without Vuć) he had ONE great game vs non playoff team- Denver, one solid game - Raptors 21 points ( where his man outscored him -DD 26 ) and did solid job filling box score being usless really ( vs Portland, blowout by almost 40 points ), where in reality he only played 1 quater good and was no factor to rest of a game.

We turned offense to him in last 12 games, we are 3-9 in that period, that puts us in rage of Lakers, Nets and 76ers in win percentage.


First of all, it should be pretty clear to you that Evan is being asked to play out of position. That's not his fault. He's an SG. I'm not arguing that Evan is better for this "make the playoffs" agenda. That ship has sailed and we should be playing Mario as well. That's not my point. My point is, Evan is the better player right now, not that he should bump Mario out of PT.

Evan has improved in both his volume and efficiency ever year he's been in the league. I don't really see how that's being a "contract warrior". Do we really care that our guards are not rebounding or blocking shots? Other than Oladipo, Vucevic, and Smith, who should Evan be passing to who can get a better shot? He has the highest TS% on the team, why would you not want him to get shots up? His TOV% is the lowest of any guard on our team, so he's more careful with the ball than anyone else.
Because basketball is team sport
That means
Open teammates has better percentage than you not wide open even you are better shooter
With ballmovement and with wide open shot everyone is involved and with working temperature, not gettingcold
It is easier for opposite team to defender selfish player than player willing to pass
Same with passing to only one guy everyone knows


You realize some of the guys like Dedmon, Elfrid, and Smith are wide open because the defense wants them to shoot, right? And just saying "ball movement is good" sounds great, but there are VERY few teams who are really capable of what you are talking about. Do you know why the Warriors have good ball movement? Because Curry and Thompson's shooting ability makes it absolutely imperative that they are guarded very tightly, or even double teamed. That opens up passing lanes. If you don't have shooters, you don't have to guard as tightly.

I'm not saying Fournier should take 25 shots per game. But to say that he's "selfish" because he has an average assist rate for his position is ridiculous. It's in the team's best interest for him to shoot, considering he's one of the few good shooters we have. Certain guys have certain roles on the team. Dedmon's job is to be a defender and grab rebounds. Evan's primary job is to get good shots, which he has been very successful at. It is not "selfish" to shoot as much as he does when he is making them at that high of a percentage.

Show me stats that show Evan as being any more selfish than other guys at his position. Not just an anecdote or play from the last couple of games you remember.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#248 » by SaberT » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:08 pm

FREE HEZONJA

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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#249 » by SaberT » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:10 pm

It's obvious Hezonja is not a liability on the court. He deserves to play more regardless of excuses people throw out. He is consistently showing that after period of adjustment (till December), he is net positive on the floor be it by stretching the floor, shooting, moving the ball or some other factor. It's impossible that all lineup stats consistently put Hezonja in most effective ones through pure luck or coincidence.

Why does he show up in those lineups, my guess is good as any. I'd say it's because he is trying to play team basketball and he will not ignore an open man. Sometimes to his detriment because he passes up open shots to make an assist.

Just imagine what could happen if Hezonja was encouraged and allowed to play through his mistakes. I'm confident he'd reward us with great play and faster development. I'm hoping management will realize this and give him lot of playing time in the end of this season. We need Mario and it's time to push him to his limit.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#250 » by LacosteM » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:17 pm

SaberT wrote:Sure, let's talk. Here are some lineup statistics starting from December the 1st, with minute cutoff to remove outliers. Links to the statistics are above the screenshot. I've sorted it by net rating which should show how effective lineup is against the opposing team.

5 man lineups. (cutoff 50 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*50&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015
Image

4 man lineups. (cutoff 75 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=4&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*75&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015
Image

3 man lineups. (cutoff 100 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=3&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*100&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015
Image

2 man lineups (cutoff 150 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*150&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015&GroupQuantity=2
Image


Someone should show Skiles these numbers.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#251 » by Zappa012 » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:43 pm

Skiles feels unconfortable because Mario is playing well :rofl:
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Mike Malone for example, a serious coach, would had hug him and the rest of his family.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#252 » by zelenooq » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:21 pm

monchief wrote:
zelenooq wrote:
monchief wrote:
First of all, it should be pretty clear to you that Evan is being asked to play out of position. That's not his fault. He's an SG. I'm not arguing that Evan is better for this "make the playoffs" agenda. That ship has sailed and we should be playing Mario as well. That's not my point. My point is, Evan is the better player right now, not that he should bump Mario out of PT.

Evan has improved in both his volume and efficiency ever year he's been in the league. I don't really see how that's being a "contract warrior". Do we really care that our guards are not rebounding or blocking shots? Other than Oladipo, Vucevic, and Smith, who should Evan be passing to who can get a better shot? He has the highest TS% on the team, why would you not want him to get shots up? His TOV% is the lowest of any guard on our team, so he's more careful with the ball than anyone else.
Because basketball is team sport
That means
Open teammates has better percentage than you not wide open even you are better shooter
With ballmovement and with wide open shot everyone is involved and with working temperature, not gettingcold
It is easier for opposite team to defender selfish player than player willing to pass
Same with passing to only one guy everyone knows


You realize some of the guys like Dedmon, Elfrid, and Smith are wide open because the defense wants them to shoot, right? And just saying "ball movement is good" sounds great, but there are VERY few teams who are really capable of what you are talking about. Do you know why the Warriors have good ball movement? Because Curry and Thompson's shooting ability makes it absolutely imperative that they are guarded very tightly, or even double teamed. That opens up passing lanes. If you don't have shooters, you don't have to guard as tightly.

I'm not saying Fournier should take 25 shots per game. But to say that he's "selfish" because he has an average assist rate for his position is ridiculous. It's in the team's best interest for him to shoot, considering he's one of the few good shooters we have. Certain guys have certain roles on the team. Dedmon's job is to be a defender and grab rebounds. Evan's primary job is to get good shots, which he has been very successful at. It is not "selfish" to shoot as much as he does when he is making them at that high of a percentage.

Show me stats that show Evan as being any more selfish than other guys at his position. Not just an anecdote or play from the last couple of games you remember.

Elf is good wide open,better than fournier covered
Smith too
Hezonja too
Name it too
About ballmovement, orlando shows that they can but, guess what, fournier was injured few games and oladipo play basketball, not shotball
Nowadays everything called assist and good ball doesn't count as assist if it is missed
You can't read it right just from statistic, you only can see how ball moves
With fournier it is awful, be honest
Good ball movement doesn't counts,there is no statistic for that
Assist is just last pass, after none or more passes
Good team has more passes than one
He has skills but he is not team player
Him and vooch are not team, just two of five there
If he wouldn't be so selfish he will be 30% better for his team
Basketball is not golf or tennis
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#253 » by zelenooq » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:27 pm

Game before last one, fournier get ball on the end of two quarters
And guess what, he didn't even try to shot
Why?
He gets 2-3 seconds but he didn't even try
Because it is small chance to score it,and it will ruin his statistics
That is so selfish and against the team
If I would be a coach he will be benched for good
Team is above any player, jordan or fournier
And fournier isn't not in the same line,but in same page with him
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#254 » by pepe1991 » Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:09 am

In last 3 games Evan Fornier has amazing +/- of epic negative -60 .

In that period our SF grabbed eye popping 2 YES TWO rebounds and had amazing- Rondo-like 4 YES FOUR assists in 99 min played.

In mean time, Evan Turner scored 16 on 11 shots on him, Harris 18 on him and Derozan 26, all 3 of them had in single game more rebounds than he was able to log in 99 min period .

He can't play SF - end of discusion. You can say he is better scorer RIGHT NOW than Hezonja, given 3 years of more experience but his defense is among worst in Orlando, he makes Hezonja look like Artest outthere. Hezonja is almost every time +/- positive, Evan Fournier is almost every game plus/minus negative. Even last night, where he only played 26 min , Fournier menaged to be -20 negative. On other side Hezonja was one of TWO Magic players who had plus/minus positive.

Fournier on serious team is guy from bench for 14-22 min guy,who will take open 3 couple of times and 15 high fives from bench. Dude can't even play SG being 6'7 ( actually 6'5 without shoes ) because he doesn't have foot speed, and at SF he is one of worst rebounders among starting SFs in whole NBA.

3 games, -60 plus,minus ,2 rebounds, 4 assists. That's a guy who turned down $12M per year deal, good luck maxing out guy who makes Batum look like second comming of Durant.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#255 » by Gordon » Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:54 am

I am not defending Fournier, and i think Hezonja should be getting few of his minutes, but lets not pretend like Hezonja is not playing like crap ever since he got moved back to the bench. His shot is so inconsistent for the past few months. For a guy touted as shooter, he has quiet a few airballs and bad misses. He is shooting just 35% on all jumpers, which is not very good for a prospect whos main calling card is shooting.

Mario made some progress with his off the ball D, he is more aware and better positioned now, but his man to man defense still sucks. He gets torched when isolated against more advanced offense players, and we need to keep hiding him on guys like Rozier, Blake or Hillard. It seems to me that his footspeed is not quiet good enough to be able to defend SGs, and will have to settle as full time SF in the long run. He needs to add some bulk too.

I liked Mario pick and i still think he will be a nice player for us in the future, but this season made me think if his potential is not as high as we all hoped for. Not only is he further behind than expected in his offensive and defensive fundamentals, but his physical tools don`t stand out at the NBA level and he seems to be middle of the pack athlete. He really needs to work his ass off this summer and study guys like Redick, Korver and Thompson.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#256 » by pepe1991 » Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:03 am

Gordon wrote:I am not defending Fournier, and i think Hezonja should be getting few of his minutes, but lets not pretend like Hezonja is not playing like crap ever since he got moved back to the bench. His shot is so inconsistent for the past few months. For a guy touted as shooter, he has quiet a few airballs and bad misses. He is shooting just 35% on all jumpers, which is not very good for a prospect whos main calling card is shooting.

Mario made some progress with his off the ball D, he is more aware and better positioned now, but his man to man defense still sucks. He gets torched when isolated against more advanced offense players, and we need to keep hiding him on guys like Rozier, Blake or Hillard. It seems to me that his footspeed is not quiet good enough to be able to defend SGs, and will have to settle as full time SF in the long run. He needs to add some bulk too.

I liked Mario pick and i still think he will be a nice player for us in the future, but this season made me think if his potential is not as high as we all hoped for. Not only is he further behind than expected in his offensive and defensive fundamentals, but his physical tools don`t stand out at the NBA level and he seems to be middle of the pack athlete. He really needs to work his ass off this summer and study guys like Redick, Korver and Thompson.



i think he is much more athletic then you give him credit for, but he is not strong enough to fight with bigger players. Given he is 21 and that's pretty damn common and normal . Even guys like Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Leonard were pushed around A LOT in their rookie years. You can see where he attacks the rim somebody just pushes him and he loses balance. He must work on a lot of things and i really belive he can be great player in future, maybe even allstar. His ballhandling improved a lot,his overall defense is actually solid now, look at his +/- he is always on positive side of that. it means that opponents don't focus on him that much any more.

He is listed as 218 lbs but i don't belive he is more than 202-205. When he adds that 5-10 extra pounds of muscle and improves his ballhandling he will be able to go at rim and it will open his shooting game too. Right now we are garbage so it's hard to even evaluate talent, 80% of our offense is mid range brick by Oladipo or Jason Smith, others don't touch ball all that much. That's why i want to see Hezonja and Gordon 30 min per game to the rest of a year.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#257 » by monchief » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:48 pm

pepe1991 wrote:In last 3 games Evan Fornier has amazing +/- of epic negative -60 .

In that period our SF grabbed eye popping 2 YES TWO rebounds and had amazing- Rondo-like 4 YES FOUR assists in 99 min played.

In mean time, Evan Turner scored 16 on 11 shots on him, Harris 18 on him and Derozan 26, all 3 of them had in single game more rebounds than he was able to log in 99 min period .

He can't play SF - end of discusion. You can say he is better scorer RIGHT NOW than Hezonja, given 3 years of more experience but his defense is among worst in Orlando, he makes Hezonja look like Artest outthere. Hezonja is almost every time +/- positive, Evan Fournier is almost every game plus/minus negative. Even last night, where he only played 26 min , Fournier menaged to be -20 negative. On other side Hezonja was one of TWO Magic players who had plus/minus positive.

Fournier on serious team is guy from bench for 14-22 min guy,who will take open 3 couple of times and 15 high fives from bench. Dude can't even play SG being 6'7 ( actually 6'5 without shoes ) because he doesn't have foot speed, and at SF he is one of worst rebounders among starting SFs in whole NBA.

3 games, -60 plus,minus ,2 rebounds, 4 assists. That's a guy who turned down $12M per year deal, good luck maxing out guy who makes Batum look like second comming of Durant.


Of course he's not an SF. He's being asked to play out of position because Hennigan brilliantly traded away our only SF for pennies on the dollar. He's asked to carry a lot of offensive load, AND defend good players who are bigger than him, all while playing too many minutes.

Blame Skiles/Hennigan for putting him in the position. He's proven he is a very good SG this season. That's my point.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#258 » by BadMofoPimp » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:56 pm

Fournier will be trade bait this summer via sign n trade. Henny and Skiles building value.

Next season, Mario will be starting at SF by mid season. Book it.

Everyone. Get off your NBA2k high horses.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#259 » by monchief » Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:02 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:Fournier will be trade bait this summer via sign n trade. Henny and Skiles building value.

Next season, Mario will be starting at SF by mid season. Book it.

Everyone. Get off your NBA2k high horses.


I'm not sure how much leverage we have in a S&T. Everyone has cap space to just send him an offer sheet, especially if they know we would want to S&T. Assuming he makes 12-15M, who are we going to get back that adds equal value, that the other team would be willing to part with? It'd just be albatross contracts that we don't want. If he gets traded, I'd expect it to be in a similar time frame that Tobias was traded, except hopefully we'd get more than pennies on the dollar.
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Re: Let's Talk About Mario 

Post#260 » by tiderulz » Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:03 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:Fournier will be trade bait this summer via sign n trade. Henny and Skiles building value.

Next season, Mario will be starting at SF by mid season. Book it.

Everyone. Get off your NBA2k high horses.


havent you been saying Hezonja isnt anwhere near ready and not to "gift" him playing time? now saying its guaranteed he is starting by mid-season? love when you throw out contradictions

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