ESPN Insider posted Tom Penn's WARP rankings. (I'll leave out his blurbs for each player, since it's Insider)
I start by translating a player's college statistics to their NBA equivalents. That produces a per-minute rating, player win% (equivalent to PER), that projects how we can expect rookies to perform in the NBA next season. By adding age, I come up with a projection of how many Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), on average, prospects will produce over their first five years -- the amount of time teams control a first-round pick between the four-year rookie contract and one year as a restricted free agent.
LIKELY FIRST-ROUND PICKS
1. NERLENS NOEL, C, KENTUCKY
2. OTTO PORTER, SF, GEORGETOWN
3. KENTAVIOUS CALDWELL-POPE, SG, GEORGIA
4. CODY ZELLER, PF, INDIANA
5. C.J. MCCOLLUM, PG, LEHIGH
6. LUCAS NOGUEIRA, C, BRAZIL
7. TREY BURKE, PG, MICHIGAN
8. ANTHONY BENNETT, PF, UNLV
9. MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS, PG, SYRACUSE
10. SERGEY KARASEV, SG, RUSSIA
11. STEVEN ADAMS, C, PITTSBURGH
12. GLEN RICE JR., SF, NBDL
13. SHANE LARKIN, PG, MIAMI
14. TONY MITCHELL, PF, NORTH TEXAS
15. ALLEN CRABBE, SG, CALIFORNIA
16. KELLY OLYNYK, PF, GONZAGA
17. VICTOR OLADIPO, SG, INDIANA
18. BEN MCLEMORE, SG, KANSAS
19. REGGIE BULLOCK, SG, NORTH CAROLINA
20. ISAIAH CANAAN, PG, MURRAY STATE
21. JAMAAL FRANKLIN, SG, SAN DIEGO STATE
22. TIM HARDAWAY JR., SG, MICHIGAN
23. ALEX LEN, C, MARYLAND
24. GORGUI DIENG, C, LOUISVILLE
25. TONY SNELL, SF, NEW MEXICO
26. MASON PLUMLEE, C, DUKE
27. SHABAZZ MUHAMMAD, SF, UCLA
NO PROJECTIONS: Antetokounmpo, Schroeder and Ledo
SECOND-ROUND STEALS
1. ANDRE ROBERSON, SF, COLORADO
2. D.J. COOPER, PG, OHIO
3. NATE WOLTERS, PG, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
4. PIERRE JACKSON, PG, BAYLOR
5. ARSALAN KAZEMI, PF, OREGON
6. RYAN BROEKHOFF, SF, VALPARAISO
7. KHALIF WYATT, SG, TEMPLE
8. MIKE MUSCALA, C, BUCKNELL
9. MARKO TODOROVIC, PF, SERBIA
10. GRANT JERRETT, PF, ARIZONA