FIRE WELTMAN

[Idiosyncratic]

I think we underrate some of our assets here a lot of times. Look around the league, you can get a solid starter for a mid 1st all day at the deadline the last couple of years. Gafford, Ingram, PJ Washington, Deandre Hunter (roughly), Finney-Smith, Rozier at the time, Olynyk/Agbaji combo. All went for a single 1st or multiple 2nds.

We can trade for a player or two with our picks that can be in the rotation easily while retaining future draft equity and possibly even a pick this year.

I hated the Wendell/Isaac extensions and Caldwell-Pope signing. I didn't post here, but I was not happy with any of those moves. Caldwell-Pope will be an expiring after next year, Isaac is descending and has an out in his contract. Wendell is the worst of them for sure, but he can be roughly an average player, maybe the 3 can come back.

It is not THAT bleak IMO. We have our big 3, it is just tinkering around them at this point. We have plenty of assets with which to do that. It is only bleak if you don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs. Which I mean could be a valid opinion, usually you don't win a title without a superstar and there may not be one amongst them.

I guess it is also bleak if Weltman doesn't add some competent guard play, but I am hoping he realizes it is a necessity at this point.

I’m lock step with you in this evaluation. I hated the extensions. Nothing dancing though

I'm not a big Weltman fan, but at the end of the day this team will be as good as the big 3 becomes. They should have made better supporting moves, but regardless of what you think of windows you can see these guys play and know they weren't in their prime contenders this year. Because of that I personally didn't mind one more year running it back with the family mentality and seeing what they could do. Did they need to extend Wendell and Isaac to do that? No, I don't get those moves. And Caldwell-Pope money should have gone to a better fit, though I don't think he was the worst possible money allocation given weak FA.

I also don't really fault them for trying to make Paolo, Franz and Suggs playmakers. Trying to develop guys to hit their ultimate upside for the slim chance at a title was fine by me. Maybe not playing with a better PG stunted their development, IDK I get why people wanted one, but I really didn't mind the concept.

We'll see what they do now that they hit a bit of a wall. And I do think those who wanted more action in previous offseasons could have been right, but this is where they are now. Maybe whoever they acquire now will have a better chance of being a part of the big 3 contending in their prime. Maybe waiting will have worked out, IDK all I know is it is the reality that we currently have and I don't think it is that bad.

[Skybox]

I think we underrate some of our assets here a lot of times. Look around the league, you can get a solid starter for a mid 1st all day at the deadline the last couple of years. Gafford, Ingram, PJ Washington, Deandre Hunter (roughly), Finney-Smith, Rozier at the time, Olynyk/Agbaji combo. All went for a single 1st or multiple 2nds.

We can trade for a player or two with our picks that can be in the rotation easily while retaining future draft equity and possibly even a pick this year.

I hated the Wendell/Isaac extensions and Caldwell-Pope signing. I didn't post here, but I was not happy with any of those moves. Caldwell-Pope will be an expiring after next year, Isaac is descending and has an out in his contract. Wendell is the worst of them for sure, but he can be roughly an average player, maybe the 3 can come back.

It is not THAT bleak IMO. We have our big 3, it is just tinkering around them at this point. We have plenty of assets with which to do that. It is only bleak if you don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs. Which I mean could be a valid opinion, usually you don't win a title without a superstar and there may not be one amongst them.

I guess it is also bleak if Weltman doesn't add some competent guard play, but I am hoping he realizes it is a necessity at this point.

KCP has 2 more seasons after this, he will obviously opt-in as no sane team will pay him $23m at his age, in free agency. WCJ and Isaac combined will be pulling $33m which is too much for what is, effectively, one player’s worth of availability. I. Okay with Isaac alone, but WCJ has been really limited, despite moments of powerful rebounding and finishing. Talking about his upside 7 seasons in…what?

They’re movable, but expect some pain…then, maybe, have some more pain when they do better on a team with an offensive scheme.

[Idiosyncratic]

We own all of our upcoming picks plus the Nuggets pick, plus the upside of the Suns swap. We have 8 2nds the next 4 years. Pretty good amount of trade assets or picks to use. I understand the thought that teams may be asking for more from us because of our obvious needs, but not sure I buy it. 1sts aren't thrown around that often anymore, I still imagine they could acquire a good player with one when push comes to shove.

Our bad contracts are Wendell at 3/49 and Caldwell-Pope at 2/42. Isaac's contract can be voided if he plays fewer than 52 games any of the next three seasons I believe. Those contracts should have never been signed, but for our albatrosses they aren't that bad.

I just don't think our spot is bad at all. I understand the skepticism around Weltman and I would probably even prefer a different GM to take the next step, but realistically probably isn't happening unless another dud year happens next year.

They should have made better moves around the fringes, realistically we should have another core rotation player on board through trade or by not missing last free agency and not blowing the Jett pick. But otherwise I'm still relatively optimistic. IDK ask me after the summer, we'll see what happens.

[basketballRob]

I'm curious how this organization is going to react when we get into the tax. The last time this happened, they blew up a team that just went to the Finals. I remember Kobe couldn't believe Orlando made changes because it was a really good team.

If we start trading off pieces and get worse just to save money again, I might need to re-think my support of this team as long as the Devos family is in control.



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[byeganyo]

I don't really agree. JI has DPOY upside and WCJ has stretch 5 with solid defense upside. Both are in their primes through the duration of the contracts. I could see teams thinking they are starting quality players and trade for them.

WCJ will be paid a little more than the MLE, JI a little less. Hardly crippling investments. The team's success is mainly anchored to Paolo, Franz, and Suggs. AB's development is a nice wildcard. Our 2026 pick will likely be another lottery pick as we can swap with Phoenix. Our draft equity cupboard is fully stocked.

1. Draft well and get the G-League development pipeline churning out rotation quality players.
2. Make some smart, rebalancing trades.

Weltman has hardly backed himself into a corner.

No, he is just slowly digging a hole, give him one or two more seasons and he'll be ready.

Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior -
1) How many of his picks in the past 8 years will stay the same or go higher in a hypothetical redraft? Fanz and Paolo, that's it, 2 out of 10. So betting on another smart draft picks is a risky shot which leads us to
2) Tell me about all smart trades he has done so far.

You expect a 65y old man all of a sudden to start doing thins he has not done...

What hole? The core of the roster long-long term is
Core: Paolo, Franz, Suggs
Role player: WCJ, JI
Lottery: AB, Jett

There is nothing crippling or limiting there. You can see the bets Weltman is placing.

Nope, you talked about picks and trades, so lets talk about picks and trades - most of weltman picks have been bad (as a pure number) and he hasnt done any meaningful trade in 5 years.
And frankly - putting Jett and WCJ there is not a point for the weltman defense brigade.

Yes, we are not crippled but each passing offseason the chance for some positive moves is dwindling - in 2023 we could have traded at least one of our lottery picks, if there was no clear vision what to do with 2 rookies, instead Weltmand got us Jett, in 2024 our cap space went to KCP and GH, what will happen in 2025?

Weltman picked Franz, lets thank him and hope he moves on.

[I Rasharted]

It is only bleak if you don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs. Which I mean could be a valid opinion, usually you don't win a title without a superstar and there may not be one amongst them.

Watch on YouTube

I don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs, ergo I don't think ORL will be a contender without major changes. We'll see if Weltman deals Suggs this offseason (I highly, highly doubt it).

[Idiosyncratic]

It is only bleak if you don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs. Which I mean could be a valid opinion, usually you don't win a title without a superstar and there may not be one amongst them.

Watch on YouTube

I don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs, ergo I don't think ORL will be a contender without major changes. We'll see if Weltman deals Suggs this offseason (I highly, highly doubt it).

I think that is a valid opinion.

It's also very possible that this core needs another near star added to it in order to win anything meaningful. Problem is if they add a player like that the financial obligation will be so high that they have to win within a few years before they are forced to break the team up. Might be a time where that makes sense though, don't think that time has passed yet.

I agree it is highly unlikely they break it up. But if they add a solid guard this season and still look limited maybe a drastic move would happen next offseason. I really hope this core can figure it out, but who knows.

[VFX]

It is only bleak if you don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs. Which I mean could be a valid opinion, usually you don't win a title without a superstar and there may not be one amongst them.

I don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs, ergo I don't think ORL will be a contender without major changes. We'll see if Weltman deals Suggs this offseason (I highly, highly doubt it).

Who are you wanting in return for Suggs and what does the defense look like after he’s moved.

[I Rasharted]

It is only bleak if you don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs. Which I mean could be a valid opinion, usually you don't win a title without a superstar and there may not be one amongst them.

I don't believe in Paolo/Franz/Suggs, ergo I don't think ORL will be a contender without major changes. We'll see if Weltman deals Suggs this offseason (I highly, highly doubt it).

Who are you wanting in return for Suggs and what does the defense look like after he’s moved.

I'm no Skybox trade machine type, but something like Suggs, Isaac and a 1st for Booker. Yes, I know blah blah Banchero extension blah blah aprons, but that's too boring to think about.

If not a Booker-level player, then at least a scoring and playmaking guard.

Re: defense, they can just ditch that identity (switch coaches if need be) while not abandoning defense altogether. Banchero and Wagner would thrive in an up-tempo system.

[The-Stallion70]

Weltman has basically done what he was hired to do which was to make the playoffs at first with those Vucevic teams to have something to show for those Hennigan years and set the team up for the future with young talent, which I believe he has done with finding two studs Franz and Paolo.

But it is time for him to go because he has been slow to adjust to the bigger shift in the NBA towards heavy three point shooting. Building from the defensive side of the ball is just not as effective today.

[SloNick Russia]

Our cap situation is not that bad at all. Cap is rising and JI for 15M per if he can ge his conditioning back to 20 mpg is a fine contract. WCJ deal is bad overall, but next season he makes a bargain 10M, and his heavy extensionbhas team option on year 3 of it so we have an out there. A real playoff rotation is 9 players max, so we need those 9 contracts, the rest you fill with vets and rooks. Say whatever you want on Weltman but his resignings are fine, short below market contracts with team options are very flexible. Come on, look at Chicago books and go cry. And they will MAX Giddey next summer trust me.
We missed some bets sure this season, but we have options to move around. And we have all our picks. Don't have any bad long time deals, even WCJ is not untradable.
We just need to boost out guards rotation.

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[drsd]

Our cap situation is not that bad at all. Cap is rising and JI for 15M per if he can ge his conditioning back to 20 mpg is a fine contract. WCJ deal is bad overall, but next season he makes a bargain 10M, and his heavy extensionbhas team option on year 3 of it so we have an out there. A real playoff rotation is 9 players max, so we need those 9 contracts, the rest you fill with vets and rooks. Say whatever you want on Weltman but his resignings are fine, short below market contracts with team options are very flexible. Come on, look at Chicago books and go cry. And they will MAX Giddey next summer trust me.
We missed some bets sure this season, but we have options to move around. And we have all our picks. Don't have any bad long time deals, even WCJ is not untradable.
We just need to boost out guards rotation.

Orlando will have ~120M tied in to Banchero, F-Wagner and Suggs in 2026/27. Cap: $170,112,000; Lux $206,686,000; apron-1 $215,505,000, and apron-2 $228,572,000

Let's accept that Orlando is not going anywhere near the apron, and is not a lux-type team, so, Orlando has 207-120=87M in contracts to fill 12 roster slots for 26/27.
Until traded, this on the books:
Isaac $14,500,000
Caldwell-Pope $21,621,500
Wendell Carter $18,102,000
Bitadze $7,608,696
Howard $7,337,655
da Silva $3,991,200
2025 Magic FRP $3,685,300 (or abouts)
2025 Denver FRP $2,403,800 (or abouts)
2026 Magic FRP $2,800,000 (guestimate)

That's 82,050,000. Thus leaving the Magic about 5M for 3 roster slots.
So, whereas I agree with you that "Our cap situation is not that bad at all", in 2026/27 the Magic is 100%-certain to be over the cap, and three LLE contracts to offer to get to the top of the lux-tax threshold.

Given that the Magic is already capped-out. All future roster improvements can only occur through consolidation trades.

[J-Mezzy]

Our cap situation is not that bad at all. Cap is rising and JI for 15M per if he can ge his conditioning back to 20 mpg is a fine contract. WCJ deal is bad overall, but next season he makes a bargain 10M, and his heavy extensionbhas team option on year 3 of it so we have an out there. A real playoff rotation is 9 players max, so we need those 9 contracts, the rest you fill with vets and rooks. Say whatever you want on Weltman but his resignings are fine, short below market contracts with team options are very flexible. Come on, look at Chicago books and go cry. And they will MAX Giddey next summer trust me.
We missed some bets sure this season, but we have options to move around. And we have all our picks. Don't have any bad long time deals, even WCJ is not untradable.
We just need to boost out guards rotation.

Orlando will have ~120M tied in to Banchero, F-Wagner and Suggs in 2026/27. Cap: $170,112,000; Lux $206,686,000; apron-1 $215,505,000, and apron-2 $228,572,000

Let's accept that Orlando is not going anywhere near the apron, and is not a lux-type team, so, Orlando has 207-120=87M in contracts to fill 12 roster slots for 26/27.
Until traded, this on the books:
Isaac $14,500,000
Caldwell-Pope $21,621,500
Wendell Carter $18,102,000
Bitadze $7,608,696
Howard $7,337,655
da Silva $3,991,200
2025 Magic FRP $3,685,300 (or abouts)
2025 Denver FRP $2,403,800 (or abouts)
2026 Magic FRP $2,800,000 (guestimate)

That's 82,050,000. Thus leaving the Magic about 5M for 3 roster slots.
So, whereas I agree with you that "Our cap situation is not that bad at all", in 2026/27 the Magic is 100%-certain to be over the cap, and three LLE contracts to offer to get to the top of the lux-tax threshold.

Given that the Magic is already capped-out. All future roster improvements can only occur through consolidation trades.

And seeing how we don’t do trades, we are stuck with this flawed roster and praying players get better

[Skybox]

Our cap situation is not that bad at all. Cap is rising and JI for 15M per if he can ge his conditioning back to 20 mpg is a fine contract. WCJ deal is bad overall, but next season he makes a bargain 10M, and his heavy extensionbhas team option on year 3 of it so we have an out there. A real playoff rotation is 9 players max, so we need those 9 contracts, the rest you fill with vets and rooks. Say whatever you want on Weltman but his resignings are fine, short below market contracts with team options are very flexible. Come on, look at Chicago books and go cry. And they will MAX Giddey next summer trust me.
We missed some bets sure this season, but we have options to move around. And we have all our picks. Don't have any bad long time deals, even WCJ is not untradable.
We just need to boost out guards rotation.

Orlando will have ~120M tied in to Banchero, F-Wagner and Suggs in 2026/27. Cap: $170,112,000; Lux $206,686,000; apron-1 $215,505,000, and apron-2 $228,572,000

Let's accept that Orlando is not going anywhere near the apron, and is not a lux-type team, so, Orlando has 207-120=87M in contracts to fill 12 roster slots for 26/27.
Until traded, this on the books:
Isaac $14,500,000
Caldwell-Pope $21,621,500
Wendell Carter $18,102,000
Bitadze $7,608,696
Howard $7,337,655
da Silva $3,991,200
2025 Magic FRP $3,685,300 (or abouts)
2025 Denver FRP $2,403,800 (or abouts)
2026 Magic FRP $2,800,000 (guestimate)

That's 82,050,000. Thus leaving the Magic about 5M for 3 roster slots.
So, whereas I agree with you that "Our cap situation is not that bad at all", in 2026/27 the Magic is 100%-certain to be over the cap, and three LLE contracts to offer to get to the top of the lux-tax threshold.

Given that the Magic is already capped-out. All future roster improvements can only occur through consolidation trades.

And, if I'm reading it correctly...this doesn't include Moe's 11m TO, Gary's 7.5m TO, Caleb's 2.2m, CoJo's 3.5m TO...so that's a lot more and a lot of holes. I think we all agree on keeping Moe (I'd like to re-up more years for less, but that's another story) and Caleb is well worth $2m. Some of his extensions are laughable...KCP for $22m and WCJ given his unearned extension a year early when he was basically out of the starting lineup. I don't know what's going on with Isaac's minutes...it was comfortable defending him playing 18 minutes of elite defense for $15m per - but that's not happening now.

[drsd]

And, if I'm reading it correctly...this doesn't include Moe's 11m TO, Gary's 7.5m TO, Caleb's 2.2m, CoJo's 3.5m TO...so that's a lot more and a lot of holes. I think we all agree on keeping Moe (I'd like to re-up more years for less, but that's another story) and Caleb is well worth $2m. Some of his extensions are laughable...KCP for $22m and WCJ given his unearned extension a year early when he was basically out of the starting lineup. I don't know what's going on with Isaac's minutes...it was comfortable defending him playing 18 minutes of elite defense for $15m per - but that's not happening now.

And-1

The Magic is not in horrible shape from 2027/28 and on, as Isaac and Anthony's contract laps.

It is virtually certain the magic re-up M-Wagner. I think 8 for 24M is fair. Something like the Bitadze deal. Joseph is gone after this season. Harris is a LLE guy if he remains, so no real impact to the cap.

Therefore: the Magic can host 14 roster slots easily by doing nothing. (none of that means "get better". That's for a different thread).

But: if Isaac, Caldwell-Pope and Anthony are all Magicians on the 2026/27 roster, we live on some X-files universe I am not really prepared to be part of. We all know how much I would lave a SG that can, well, shoot. So:

[SloNick Russia]

When our BIG 3 are payed we will have to strike some gold on draft picks, maybe start using 2 rounders at once.
I think 10% cap increase has been announced already.

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[drsd]

I think 10% cap increase has been announced already.

Te cap goes up 10% in each of the ext five years to soften the huge increase in revenue the NBA has with its new TV deals.
But all websites have this 10% annual jump in their graphs.

The 2027/28 and 2028/29 payrolls are actually quite favorable for Orlando, with the current roster and Suggs' declining deal, for example.

[Skybox]

David Griffin fired by NOLA...I always liked him. He doesn't approach the job like a scared bunny but he's also not reckless like Morey. I'd love to hear him making our personnel decisions...if not, I hope he goes back to commentating -he was always a good regular guest on Podcasts and Sirius NBA.

[fendilim]

The team pretty much exceeded expectation this year with Paolo and Franz missing a lot of games. Then Jalen and Moritz went down too.

And still to come out at .500 to end the season.


Could have been better though. Lol

[Skybox]

The team pretty much exceeded expectation this year with Paolo and Franz missing a lot of games. Then Jalen and Moritz went down too.

And still to come out at .500 to end the season.


Could have been better though. Lol

That's in spite of Weltman...not because of him