Let's Talk About Mario

[Xatticus]

Rob should have listen to me and trade down to draft myles turner, we would have less Headache for Free Agency and draft

Myles Turner is a wonderful talent. His developmental floor is pretty high, as he is very young and already a good player, but his ceiling still isn't nearly as high as Hezonja's.

[RickB-Orlando]

It´s for the best if he asks for a trade, Skiles is just not the kinda coach that will develop a rookie. He uses them as punching bags while he "develops" 30 y. olds.
Another 3 years here under Skiles are 3 years wasted. In those 3 years Orlando will maybe make the playoffs in 1 of those years.

I've posted similar information before, but the myth that Skiles doesn't develop youth is one that keeps getting passed back and forth here and it's just not true. Some examples:

Ben Gordon - sixth player of the year as a rookie.
Brandon Jennings - started 82 games as a rookie.
Shawn Marion - started 79 games in his second year, averaging 17+ PPG.

The fact is, he has developed and played youth. Mario simply isn't ready for the big stage - watching the games rather than the box scores will tell you that. Sure, he flashes skills, because he has great potential, but he's still quite raw.

He has the potential, maybe next year, maybe he evolves into a legitimate starter like Marion did?

It's patently ridiculous to say that the Magic should trade Mario simply because "Skiles won't develop him." Historically, that's exactly what he has done. Maybe he's not impacting games much because he simply isn't ready to do so.

he play them because - injuries -.-
get real,man

Wow, that ranks right up there with one of the most poorly considered, inaccurate statements that has ever appeared on this board.
It is driven by emotion, clearly, not by logic.
Oh, and not to mention, it also completely ignores the facts.

Good work, all in one post.

[yoyojw17]

We're really not going to know who we ACTUALLY should've taken until a couple of years down the road. I'm still excited about Mario and AG moving forward.

THANK YOU!

Myles has a blow up game against a depleted NO team and everyone jumps back on the bandwagon. Nothing has been said about him for the last 20 games when he was just.... meh with a couple of solid showing. Had a hot start.... everyone started swinging off his junk.... then he recessed. now his name is being brought up in .."Why did we not select him"

And a 6'8"-6'9" shooting guard with the potential to be a two way player.... elite shooter (something we desperately needed on the team as well)... and athletic freak with great court vision is nothing to scoff at either.

sometimes being on this board always makes me realize how true "The grass is always greener on the other side" really is.

There is always a possibility that both grass are just as green... but we're too busy wanting what others have.



on a side note.... HAPPY Good Friday to all!

[Xatticus]

It´s for the best if he asks for a trade, Skiles is just not the kinda coach that will develop a rookie. He uses them as punching bags while he "develops" 30 y. olds.
Another 3 years here under Skiles are 3 years wasted. In those 3 years Orlando will maybe make the playoffs in 1 of those years.

I've posted similar information before, but the myth that Skiles doesn't develop youth is one that keeps getting passed back and forth here and it's just not true. Some examples:

Ben Gordon - sixth player of the year as a rookie.
Brandon Jennings - started 82 games as a rookie.
Shawn Marion - started 79 games in his second year, averaging 17+ PPG.

The fact is, he has developed and played youth. Mario simply isn't ready for the big stage - watching the games rather than the box scores will tell you that. Sure, he flashes skills, because he has great potential, but he's still quite raw.

He has the potential, maybe next year, maybe he evolves into a legitimate starter like Marion did?

It's patently ridiculous to say that the Magic should trade Mario simply because "Skiles won't develop him." Historically, that's exactly what he has done. Maybe he's not impacting games much because he simply isn't ready to do so.

I wouldn't equate playing time with development. Playing time is also a function of personnel. I worry that Skiles is trying to pound some of our square pegs into a round hole.

[Xatticus]

Not a bust, just not the best fit for this team

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he fits with the team,he just don't fit with fournier "selfinesh" and skiles "blind"
so,yes,trade him and take someone better for this forunier and skil...i mean,this team
it is better to trade him now when he is still #5 rookie than 2 years with skiles as lottery pick bust

Myles has better potential and better physical tools than Mario, even the Mario lovers should be able to see this

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Disagree. He has a very good mid-range shot and he has the potential to become a very good shot blocker. The huge red flag on Turner was his lack of productivity in college.

[Xatticus]

Plenty of historical evidence of team missing on great player because they thought they took the bpa

Sam Bowie was drafted for fit.

[cedric76]

Plenty of historical evidence of team missing on great player because they thought they took the bpa

Sam Bowie was drafted for fit.

You might be a bit young. Sam bowie + hakeem were clearly the best 2 players. Sam bowie was so skilled you couldn't pass on him for a sg (having drexler helped there decision too).


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[Xatticus]

Plenty of historical evidence of team missing on great player because they thought they took the bpa

Sam Bowie was drafted for fit.

You might be a bit young. Sam bowie + hakeem were clearly the best 2 players. Sam bowie was so skilled you couldn't pass on him for a sg (having drexler helped there decision too).


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There is no way that Bowie was a better player than Jordan at that time. Bowie was a huge prospect coming out of high school, but had struggled through injuries in college and had just come off of an unimpressive season.

I get that Drexler played the same role as Jordan, but that's the whole point about BPA versus fit.

[cedric76]

Sam Bowie was drafted for fit.

You might be a bit young. Sam bowie + hakeem were clearly the best 2 players. Sam bowie was so skilled you couldn't pass on him for a sg (having drexler helped there decision too).


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There is no way that Bowie was a better player than Jordan at that time. Bowie was a huge prospect coming out of high school, but had struggled through injuries in college and had just come off of an unimpressive season.

I get that Drexler played the same role as Jordan, but that's the whole point about BPA versus fit.

Those days you couldn't pass on a guy like Bowie, he cleared all the physical test (lied about it saying he was pain free).


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[ezzzp]

The TS% was to show how Fournier's shooting efficiency ranks amongst players in a similar role. It is filtered for 1400minutes and 40 games started to show that he sustained it vs starting level competition and for a quality amount of time.

The AS% was to show how Fourniers Assist % compared to players who because of their size range (6'6"-6'9") more than likely are defended by and defend players in that same size range (basically SF's vs SF's but its more fluid than that). That was also filtered at 1400m/40 gs to show that % was vs starting level competition and sustained for a quality amount of minutes.

Btw, 40 (41) games is half an NBA season and most starters average around 2100 minutes a season (thus 1400m is about 2/3 of a starter's season minutes). Those numbers aren't arbitrary.

Numbers can't be arbitrary. Decisions can be, and the decision to filter based upon number of games started is a perfect example of an arbitrary decision. There are no asterisks next the to stats of non-starters. Assist percentage is a rate. It is based on the number of field goals scored. It doesn't tell you how effective the offense was while said player is on the floor. One can have an exceptionally high assist rate in an exceptionally poor offense. The quality of competition is largely irrelevant.

To be clear, I find the metric to be essentially useless. It is very imprecise, and based upon perhaps the worst counting stat in basketball. Assists are as much a function of possession as they are an ability to create baskets for other players. This is why some of the most notoriously selfish players in the history of the NBA (Kobe Bryant) are able to accumulate more than their share of assists.

I don't like Assists as a stat either; its why I used AS% as assist rate is closer to the point that I was trying to make with that number. Which was how Fournier's assist rate compares to other players in his role: a starting scoring wing that is defended by and defends the other team's starting smaller forward/bigger wing.

AS% is a rate that measures the percentage of a team's total field goals that were assisted by that player within the selected time range. I used that to give a ballpark comparison (to similarly used players) of how much he's sharing the ball - not how effective the offense is.

Here is SAP's Passing Frequency (within the context of the 2015-16 Magic) to add to that assessment:

[monchief]

On a team deprived of efficient scorers, I'm okay with giving the guy with 45/40/82 splits some leeway with his shot attempts.

It blows my mind that the shooting guard is being criticized for being the best scorer on our team... He is far, far from chuckers of the mid 2000s, and miles more efficient than those guys were, all while being forced to play out of position against the league's most physical specimens like Leborn, PG, Kawhi, etc etc.

[ORL_on_FIRE]

Patiently waiting for Marios elite shooting to be elite.

[cedric76]

Patiently waiting for Marios elite shooting to be elite.

Isnt it elite yet? From the love I see on this board, he must be

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[ORL_on_FIRE]

Patiently waiting for Marios elite shooting to be elite.

Isnt it elite yet? From the love I see on this board, he must be

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Not yet, no consistency.

[cedric76]

Patiently waiting for Marios elite shooting to be elite.

Isnt it elite yet? From the love I see on this board, he must be

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Not yet, no consistency.

[p0peye]

If he improves, he might catch Elfrid in 3FG%.

[Gordon]

So Mario gets the start today. I am rooting for him to have a breakout game.

Though if he struggles it will be interesting what will Mario fans come up with as an excuse. Probably some combination of Fournier dominating the ball and Skiles ruining his confidence.

[Bensational]

I'm sure those lineups are ranked that because of Hezonja...smh...and look at that sample size....and consider the game scenario's where Mario plays (ex: end of quarters vs 2nd unit wings) etc.

...and let me get this straight:

- when Mario doesn't get minutes player-fans complain he doesn't get enough minutes
- when Mario does get minutes player-fans complain his role is too small and everyone on the floor ignores him

...but now you pull up tiny sample stats of lineups with players who dominate the ball and carry nearly all the offensive or defensive load, but now in your interpretation that means that he is the reason those line-ups are ranked where they are...

LOL, ok....

I was one of the earliest on this board to argue for the Magic to pick Hezonja, and I am a huge fan of his; but the delusion that "player-fans" have about what level his game is at right now is just comical. I watch every game, and he does show flashes here and there, but he is in no way playing at the level that those "player-fan" eye goggles are distorting your vision to.

Every time he puts the ball on the floor, I cringe. If you don't, then you are choosing to turn a blind eye to one of the most important things that a starting wing in the NBA is asked to do vs defenses every single night. Even if you ignore that, and just focus on his role as a catch and shoot type option, you can't have missed how he is still not clear as to what to do when he has the ball in his hand. He drives when he should shoot, he shoots when he should pass, he passes when he should shoot...this happens every time he is on the court.

I have no doubt that this offseason he'll improve those ball handling skills in the gym; and a have much better understanding of the subtleties of the NBA game by looking at a lot of his game film this summer...and I'm positive he'll come into next training camp at a whole other level of player...but that is the future - not right now.

...and I do not believe young players develop by being handed minutes - the only thing that does is lower their ceiling.

I think there's an equal delusion that the "team-fans" have, that we're already a good enough team not to bother giving Mario more minutes.

That's despite the fact that Skiles is only barely better than JV and JB at this point (worse since Jan 1st), Vuc and Oladipo have had 3 years as featured players and we're still seeing the same results (with the team), and our team really doesn't seem any closer to putting the pieces together on how to win, other than what's looking like a fluke hot streak earlier this season.

I don't think people who want to see Gordon and Hezonja play more are strictly "player-fans". They're just "team-fans" with a different outlook on how the team should operate. It's totally justifiable if someone isn't that impressed with what has become the status quo over recent years and want to see something else. What have we got to lose? More games with Vuc and Oladipo trying to carry us, that ultimately don't matter at this point in the season?

[ezzzp]

I think there's an equal delusion that the "team-fans" have, that we're already a good enough team not to bother giving Mario more minutes.

That's despite the fact that Skiles is only barely better than JV and JB at this point (worse since Jan 1st), Vuc and Oladipo have had 3 years as featured players and we're still seeing the same results (with the team), and our team really doesn't seem any closer to putting the pieces together on how to win, other than what's looking like a fluke hot streak earlier this season.

I don't think people who want to see Gordon and Hezonja play more are strictly "player-fans". They're just "team-fans" with a different outlook on how the team should operate. It's totally justifiable if someone isn't that impressed with what has become the status quo over recent years and want to see something else. What have we got to lose? More games with Vuc and Oladipo trying to carry us, that ultimately don't matter at this point in the season?

I think the problem is that some fans incorrectly think a 23 year old is a veteran or a finished product that doesn't deserve floor time to develop as well; time that they have earned with their play, not their lottery position. Its the "shiny new toy syndrome." Total Minutes for Magic this season:



The bulk of the minutes have gone to 23 year old and under players along with old man Vuc (at 25).

It is short sighted to think that those 23 year olds have less potential than the younger players. Here is how the Magic's 23 year olds (Oladipo and Fournier) rank* in comparison to other 23 year olds in the prior 5 seasons (2011/12 to 2015/16):

*using BPM with a minimum of 50 games and 1400 minutes played



Here is how the Magic's 23 year olds rank amongst all other current 23 year olds in the NBA this season:

[Dennis Reynolds]

Sure, let's talk. Here are some lineup statistics starting from December the 1st, with minute cutoff to remove outliers. Links to the statistics are above the screenshot. I've sorted it by net rating which should show how effective lineup is against the opposing team.

5 man lineups. (cutoff 50 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*50&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015

4 man lineups. (cutoff 75 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=4&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*75&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015

3 man lineups. (cutoff 100 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=3&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*100&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015

2 man lineups (cutoff 150 minutes)
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612753/lineups/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*150&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2015&GroupQuantity=2

I'm sure those lineups are ranked that because of Hezonja...smh...and look at that sample size....and consider the game scenario's where Mario plays (ex: end of quarters vs 2nd unit wings) etc.

...and let me get this straight:

- when Mario doesn't get minutes player-fans complain he doesn't get enough minutes
- when Mario does get minutes player-fans complain his role is too small and everyone on the floor ignores him

...but now you pull up tiny sample stats of lineups with players who dominate the ball and carry nearly all the offensive or defensive load, but now in your interpretation that means that he is the reason those line-ups are ranked where they are...

LOL, ok....

I was one of the earliest on this board to argue for the Magic to pick Hezonja, and I am a huge fan of his; but the delusion that "player-fans" have about what level his game is at right now is just comical. I watch every game, and he does show flashes here and there, but he is in no way playing at the level that those "player-fan" eye goggles are distorting your vision to.

Every time he puts the ball on the floor, I cringe. If you don't, then you are choosing to turn a blind eye to one of the most important things that a starting wing in the NBA is asked to do vs defenses every single night. Even if you ignore that, and just focus on his role as a catch and shoot type option, you can't have missed how he is still not clear as to what to do when he has the ball in his hand. He drives when he should shoot, he shoots when he should pass, he passes when he should shoot...this happens every time he is on the court.

I have no doubt that this offseason he'll improve those ball handling skills in the gym; and a have much better understanding of the subtleties of the NBA game by looking at a lot of his game film this summer...and I'm positive he'll come into next training camp at a whole other level of player...but that is the future - not right now.

...and I do not believe young players develop by being handed minutes - the only thing that does is lower their ceiling.

If Mario has nothing to do with those lineups doing well,why aren't they producing similar results without him? I'd really like to know the answer.

Don't give me that bullchit about small sample size because those are the stats that cover most of our season. You are the one who pulled out a 10 game sample trying to convince me Mario is our 6th man. I have no idea where do you find the nerve to call someone out for using the small sample size.

The question is,why didn't Mario get more burn to see if he can help us especially considering we obviously aren't going anywhere this season? I don't think giving Mario way more minutes would have made a huge difference but I'm sure it would help us in the long run.

Mentioning his mistakes is pointless too. It isn't like our team is perfect. Just look how often Fournier ignores the open man to take a contested shot.

At the moment,we are actually showcasing a guy who is a RFA. Are we at least getting wins doing so? F**K NO. How stupid does one have to be to give the total freedom to a guy who might leave us this offseason? Even if he resigns,we will probably have to overpay him. What a great season would this turn out to be if Fournier leaves and we haven't even given Mario a chance to develop.

You and I had a discussion about Mario's and Fournier's stats and I remember telling you the stats don't tell the whole story. I also said their production would be much more similar if Skiles were to give both of them the same roles. Guess what,I was right. Mario didn't get the same role but just giving him more of a leash does wonders for his game.
Of course he isn't going to turn into a superstar the moment he gets a chance but the improvement will be obvious. Can't believe some guys are expecting big time production from a rookie the moment he gets a chance.
Benching you for every mistake and forcing you to watch guys doing mind blowing chit over and over again and still playing twice as much as you will leave some damage on your mind. Is that so hard to understand?


I really can't understand this Fournier love either. The guy isn't even averaging 15 points and besides scoring,he doesn't bring anything else to the table. The guy he is guarding scores more points than him pretty much every game.
He kills our ball movement and that kind of behaviour is destroying team's chemistry. He doesn't pass and rebound so what is he good for? Look how far has he taken us as one of our main options. I really don't understand how can someone defend him just because he is efficient. It isn't hard to see the negatives outweigh the positives in his case.



This season is a total waste but we should at least give plenty of minutes and opportunities to our young guys. If we don't,they are going to be making the same mistakes again next season because of the inexperience and the people here will bitch again saying they aren't ready and we are going to be heading for the lottery once more.

Mod Note: Post has been slightly edited. Please do not use personal attacks.