pepe1991 wrote:[whistler] wrote:I think there was a possibility that if Suggs went 4th, the Magic take Wagner 5th and one of Kuminga, Bouknight, Ziaire 8th.
That would simply be poor drafting and decision making. If you are going to take player who nobody else really will take that high, you have to trade down. Especially knowing almost everybody wanted to trade up. So you could trade 5th pick and asset for let's say 9th pick from Kings and scoop some asset as well.
I know people like to think players are locked into their draft ranking/position and the teams need to maneuver around by trading up/down but that really isn't how it works. It's a poker game full of gambles, bluffs, smokescreens, lies, etc... Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.
Take a hypothetical example that DET thought Kuminga was the best player in the draft by far. So how far do they trade down and how much do they ask for the #1? Do they start calling teams "Hey we want to trade down, so how much you want to pay us for the #1?" I think anyone can see how that would put you in an incredibly weak negotiating position. So maybe they wait for some calls? Well now they are at the mercy of who wants to pay for the #1 and the right team may never make that call. Kuminga was thought to be going #5 to us, but other teams above us purposely float the possibility of drafting him #3 or #4 just so they can maybe trick a team into overpaying for a move up. That means DET can't even drop below #3 and be sure they will get their guy, and if they do drop to #3 to get him they get BLASTED for giving up the #1 to reach for lesser tier talent. Sometimes the best course of action is to just take the BPA and figure it out later. Can't fault the team for taking Cade #1 even if he busts.
There was no way for the Magic to guarantee Wagner is there in the lower draft picks. The reason they MIGHT take him at #5 (assuming no Suggs and they like him more than Barnes) is because one of Kuminga/Bouknight/Ziaire would be available at #8. If you have "Position A" with one guy you want and "Position B" with three guys you'd take and they are all kinda close, you fill "Position A" first even if the guy is technically lower in your ranking than the others. Now that doesn't mean they don't take Barnes and trade him for Wagner with a team lower in the draft, but they have to assume some other team likes Barnes more than Wagner when they themselves think the opposite AND said other team is willing to give up some asset(s) and not just take Wagner and be done with it.
(all theoretical here)
Moving up/down isn't so easy.
