Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[VFX]

Fultz might not even be in the NBA past this year so I'm not holding out cap space for a guy who can't even dribble or shoot a basketball right now. Yeah Isaac is a RFA but honestly if he doesn't improve offensively whose going to offer him a deal when we can match it? I actually could see us getting Isaac on a cheaper deal in RFA especially if he hasn't improved much.

You pretty much named every RFA we have over the next 3 years, I'll worry about that when it happens and not years early.

Front offices don't have the luxury of short term thinking and not worrying about things until they happen; they have to prepare the cap terrain for 3-5 year cycles.

Good free agents NEVER sign with small market teams nosediving for high lottery...that's what Orlando will be in your scenario. Hell even low end free agents don't sign into that situation unless they are overpaid.

And “good” free agents won’t sign for a marginally competitive Magic team in the east. Either way, the avenue for legitimate talent acquisition comes down to trades and the draft, and only one of those options gives you smaller rookie scale deals, barring a team jettisoning a young prospect via trade.

[Skin]

Good free agents NEVER sign with small market teams nosediving for high lottery...that's what Orlando will be in your scenario. Hell even low end free agents don't sign into that situation unless they are overpaid.

Well... FAs coming out of their rookie deals and hoping to get paid for the first time care a lot less about joining a winner than they do about getting PAID and/or a chance for more playing time. I'd put it 1st) Money 2) PT 3) Joining a winner.

Whereas, guys on their third contracts like Vuc or Kemba would more definitely look for a winner. So it depends what stage of your rebuild is. Are you looking to go over the top and make yourself a true contender? Or are you still piecing things together?

I think we're in the later. Guys like Kelly Oubre, D'Angelo Russell, Malcolm Brogdon, WCS, Terry Rozier could be interested in ORL if ORL threw money at them. We would hold the leverage power by being top bidder. They would hold the leverage power when deciding between their offers.

[ezzzp]

And “good” free agents won’t sign for a marginally competitive Magic team in the east. Either way, the avenue for legitimate talent acquisition comes down to trades and the draft, and only one of those options gives you smaller rookie scale deals, barring a team jettisoning a young prospect via trade.

Decent to good quality players do sign with teams that are trending towards playoffs and clearly trying to win games.

You might not get the top guys until its clear path towards contention but you can certainly sign good value players that improve the baseline and team's cache of assets. This is especially true for a team like Orlando that has solid potential for internal growth along with a well respected coach and FO.

Another key difference is that if you retain the assets, you have assets to trade down the road.

...plus you have a better chance to remain in a competitive context which normally raises the value of all your assets

...plus a competitive context also happens to be the best situation for young players to develop in to max out their peak.

That is what I've been saying to you for a couple of days now.

[ezzzp]

Good free agents NEVER sign with small market teams nosediving for high lottery...that's what Orlando will be in your scenario. Hell even low end free agents don't sign into that situation unless they are overpaid.

Well... FAs coming out of their rookie deals and hoping to get paid for the first time care a lot less about joining a winner than they do about getting PAID and/or a chance for more playing time. I'd put it 1st) Money 2) PT 3) Joining a winner.

Whereas, guys on their third contracts like Vuc or Kemba would more definitely look for a winner. So it depends what stage of your rebuild is. Are you looking to go over the top and make yourself a true contender? Or are you still piecing things together?

I think we're in the later. Guys like Kelly Oubre, D'Angelo Russell, Malcolm Brogdon, WCS, Terry Rozier could be interested in ORL if ORL threw money at them. We would hold the leverage power by being top bidder. They would hold the leverage power when deciding between their offers.

Those guys are Restricted Free Agents. When's the last time that a good player's offer sheet didn't get matched? RFA's have no say in the matter other than going out and finding the team that will give them the highest offer sheet for their team to match.

In addition, the only way to pry those players loose from their team is to massively overpay and put in painful incentives so that their team doesn't match...if they don't, then the Magic are screwed with an overpay + badly structured contract.

D-Lo isn't going anywhere. Brooklyn loves him, he loves Brooklyn. They have enough cap to sign 2 max free agents and another high salary.

Why in the world would we want to sign Kelly Oubre, a wing that can't shoot (32% last year and 32% career from 3) and can't create for himself or others + is known to have mental issues...and notorious for being low effort on defense.

I'm definitely not letting Vucevic and Ross walk to be able to sign Rozier to an overpay, that's just backwards + FO just traded for Fultz (and have MCW + Briscoe + DJ already).

Why would you pay WCS instead of Vucevic especially if what you want is to clear way for Bamba and Birch?

Brogdon is the only one I am remotely interested in and within reach; but Bucks have stated over and over that they're committed to keeping the team together because they know time is ticking with Giannis.

[VFX]

And “good” free agents won’t sign for a marginally competitive Magic team in the east. Either way, the avenue for legitimate talent acquisition comes down to trades and the draft, and only one of those options gives you smaller rookie scale deals, barring a team jettisoning a young prospect via trade.

Another key difference is that if you retain the assets, you have assets to trade down the road.

...plus you have a better chance to remain in a competitive context which normally raises the value of all your assets

...plus a competitive context also happens to be the best situation for young players to develop in to max out their peak.

That is what I've been saying to you for a couple of days now.

Depends entirely on the age and value of those assets. Players depreciate based on age, contract price, and contribution. I agree that retaining an asset is better than one walking to save value, but that still depends on the contract.

Remaining competitive might raise the value of assets. It depends on the player. You think Doncic not making the playoffs makes him a less valuable asset? No. What about Fox, Bagley, and Hield? Arguably more valuable than Isaac, albeit he made the playoffs, and I’m a fan of his. Anthony Davis is one of the more valuable players in the league based on talent and not on a good team.

Completely situational.

[ezzzp]

Remaining competitive might raise the value of assets. It depends on the player. You think Doncic not making the playoffs makes him a less valuable asset? No. What about Fox, Bagley, and Hield? Arguably more valuable than Isaac, albeit he made the playoffs, and I’m a fan of his.

Completely situational.

You don't think that Dallas and Sacramento were trying to make the playoffs? They just had a bigger challenge in the West and couldn't achieve it...but both those teams were absolutely playing to win for all or most of the season. Those franchises knew how big that is for their youth's development and how it improves the value of all their assets.

[VFX]

Remaining competitive might raise the value of assets. It depends on the player. You think Doncic not making the playoffs makes him a less valuable asset? No. What about Fox, Bagley, and Hield? Arguably more valuable than Isaac, albeit he made the playoffs, and I’m a fan of his.

Completely situational.

You don't think that Dallas and Sacramento were trying to make the playoffs? They just had a bigger challenge in the West and couldn't achieve it...but both those teams were absolutely playing to win for all or most of the season. Those franchises knew how big that is for their youth's development and how it improves the value of all their assets.

The point is that they didn’t and their assets didn’t lose value. Atlanta wasn’t trying to win either. Does that mean Trae Young is less valuable? John Collins isn’t losing value and neither is Booker despite being on bad teams. Oubre probably gained value post trade, from his performance, going from a fringe playoff team to a bottom dweller.

Completely situational.

[ezzzp]

Remaining competitive might raise the value of assets. It depends on the player. You think Doncic not making the playoffs makes him a less valuable asset? No. What about Fox, Bagley, and Hield? Arguably more valuable than Isaac, albeit he made the playoffs, and I’m a fan of his.

Completely situational.

You don't think that Dallas and Sacramento were trying to make the playoffs? They just had a bigger challenge in the West and couldn't achieve it...but both those teams were absolutely playing to win for all or most of the season. Those franchises knew how big that is for their youth's development and how it improves the value of all their assets.

The point is that they didn’t and their assets didn’t lose value. Atlanta wasn’t trying to win either. Does that mean Trae Young is less valuable? John Collins isn’t losing value and neither is Booker despite being on bad teams. Oubre probably gained value post trade, from his performance, going from a fringe playoff team to a bottom dweller.

Completely situational.

What? I never ever said that a player loses value if they aren't in the playoffs...how are you even arriving at that? The statement was that many players gain value when they play in the playoffs. NOWHERE in any of my statements do I say that players regress or lose value if they don't play in the playoffs.

Playing in the playoffs is the most proven and respected player development tool there is in the NBA. That does NOT state or suggest that not playing in the playoffs means they'll regress.

[VFX]

You don't think that Dallas and Sacramento were trying to make the playoffs? They just had a bigger challenge in the West and couldn't achieve it...but both those teams were absolutely playing to win for all or most of the season. Those franchises knew how big that is for their youth's development and how it improves the value of all their assets.

The point is that they didn’t and their assets didn’t lose value. Atlanta wasn’t trying to win either. Does that mean Trae Young is less valuable? John Collins isn’t losing value and neither is Booker despite being on bad teams. Oubre probably gained value post trade, from his performance, going from a fringe playoff team to a bottom dweller.

Completely situational.

What? I never ever said that a player loses value if they aren't in the playoffs...how are you even arriving at that? The statement was that many players gain value when they play in the playoffs. NOWHERE in any of my statements do I say that players regress or lose value if they don't play in the playoffs.

Playing in the playoffs is the most proven and respected player development tool there is in the NBA. That does NOT state or suggest that not playing in the playoffs means they'll regress.

“Remaining in a competitive context increases value”.

There are valuable players that aren’t in competitive situations as well. Like I said, Isaac and Bamba made the playoffs. There are players that didn’t that are perceived to be more valuable even from the same draft range in years.

Anthony Davis is never on a winning team but is one of the most valued players. I’m just saying that it’s a blanket statement and determined value isn’t set by defined parameters.

[ezzzp]

“Remaining in a competitive context increases value”.

There are valuable players that aren’t in competitive situations as well. Like I said, Isaac and Bamba made the playoffs. There are players that didn’t that are perceived to be more valuable even from the same draft range in years.

Anthony Davis is never on a winning team but is one of the most valued players. I’m just saying that it’s a blanket statement and determined value isn’t set by defined parameters.

That quote DOES NOT say that players decrease value if they are not in a competitive context.

And the quote was: "...plus you have a better chance to remain in a competitive context which normally raises the value of all your assets"

Players who are in competitive context do often increase in value because of their context. That does NOT mean that if they aren't in that context that their value suddenly drops.

[VFX]

“Remaining in a competitive context increases value”.

There are valuable players that aren’t in competitive situations as well. Like I said, Isaac and Bamba made the playoffs. There are players that didn’t that are perceived to be more valuable even from the same draft range in years.

Anthony Davis is never on a winning team but is one of the most valued players. I’m just saying that it’s a blanket statement and determined value isn’t set by defined parameters.

That quote DOES NOT say that players decrease value if they are not in a competitive context.

And the quote was: "...plus you have a better chance to remain in a competitive context which normally raises the value of all your assets"

Players who are in competitive context do often increase in value because of their context. That does NOT mean that if they aren't in that context that their value suddenly drops.

Here, I'll just use your whole quote-

“...plus you have a better chance to remain in a competitive context which normally raises the value of all your assets

...plus a competitive context also happens to be the best situation for young players to develop in to max out their peak. “

Completely depends what assets your are talking about. A player like Biyombo isn’t going to have rising value sitting on the bench during a playoff appearance. What about John Wall? Even if he was on a remotely competitive roster he would still have lesser value because of his contract and injuries.

Again, entirely depends on the player and their situation on the team. If the team is winning but they aren’t growing or seeing playing time then it’s doubtful. Pat McCaw and Ian Clark should be super valuable assets then right? They were in the best possible situation. How do you know they reached their “max peak”? What if we kept Birch and Vuc for the foreseeable future? Is that the “best possible situation” for Bamba for his value or Orlando’s use of assets. Probably not. You don’t know.

[zaymon]

Completely depends what assets your are talking about. A player like Biyombo isn’t going to have rising value sitting on the bench during a playoff appearance. .

Free-agent center Bismack Biyombo and the Orlando Magic reached an agreement on a four-year contract.

[pepe1991]

The point is that they didn’t and their assets didn’t lose value. Atlanta wasn’t trying to win either. Does that mean Trae Young is less valuable? John Collins isn’t losing value and neither is Booker despite being on bad teams. Oubre probably gained value post trade, from his performance, going from a fringe playoff team to a bottom dweller.

Completely situational.

What? I never ever said that a player loses value if they aren't in the playoffs...how are you even arriving at that? The statement was that many players gain value when they play in the playoffs. NOWHERE in any of my statements do I say that players regress or lose value if they don't play in the playoffs.

Playing in the playoffs is the most proven and respected player development tool there is in the NBA. That does NOT state or suggest that not playing in the playoffs means they'll regress.

“Remaining in a competitive context increases value”.

There are valuable players that aren’t in competitive situations as well. Like I said, Isaac and Bamba made the playoffs. There are players that didn’t that are perceived to be more valuable even from the same draft range in years.

Anthony Davis is never on a winning team but is one of the most valued players. I’m just saying that it’s a blanket statement and determined value isn’t set by defined parameters.

Beause he is 30ppg player with DPOY pedegree.
Also he played in playoffs last year and swept team ranked ahead of his.
AND why he wants to leave? Because he wants to go to bigger market.

Story of every smaller market team in last 5 years.
Also it's not true that playoffs don't increese value. Biyombo got $70M contract based on two games in playoffs.

[tiderulz]

What? I never ever said that a player loses value if they aren't in the playoffs...how are you even arriving at that? The statement was that many players gain value when they play in the playoffs. NOWHERE in any of my statements do I say that players regress or lose value if they don't play in the playoffs.

Playing in the playoffs is the most proven and respected player development tool there is in the NBA. That does NOT state or suggest that not playing in the playoffs means they'll regress.

“Remaining in a competitive context increases value”.

There are valuable players that aren’t in competitive situations as well. Like I said, Isaac and Bamba made the playoffs. There are players that didn’t that are perceived to be more valuable even from the same draft range in years.

Anthony Davis is never on a winning team but is one of the most valued players. I’m just saying that it’s a blanket statement and determined value isn’t set by defined parameters.

Beause he is 30ppg player with DPOY pedegree.
Also he played in playoffs last year and swept team ranked ahead of his.
AND why he wants to leave? Because he wants to go to bigger market.

Story of every smaller market team in last 5 years.
Also it's not true that playoffs don't increese value. Biyombo got $70M contract based on two games in playoffs.

depends on the player. I dont hear Damian Lillard demanding to go to a bigger market. Oladipo has seemed happy in 3 small markets. Kemba was fine in Charlotte. KAT, Conley, Gasol. A lot depends on the player and on the agent. The agent can sow discord between a player and a team, just look at your example of Davis.

[VFX]

Completely depends what assets your are talking about. A player like Biyombo isn’t going to have rising value sitting on the bench during a playoff appearance. .

Free-agent center Bismack Biyombo and the Orlando Magic reached an agreement on a four-year contract.

GMs make bad decisions all the time.

[nymets1]

Do we really have a shot at De'angelo Russell now? The Nets can apparently renounce De'angelo Russell. I didn't know what the word renounce is so I googled the word renounce and it sounds like that means De'angelo Russell would be a free agent if the Nets renounce him?

[pepe1991]

“Remaining in a competitive context increases value”.

There are valuable players that aren’t in competitive situations as well. Like I said, Isaac and Bamba made the playoffs. There are players that didn’t that are perceived to be more valuable even from the same draft range in years.

Anthony Davis is never on a winning team but is one of the most valued players. I’m just saying that it’s a blanket statement and determined value isn’t set by defined parameters.

Beause he is 30ppg player with DPOY pedegree.
Also he played in playoffs last year and swept team ranked ahead of his.
AND why he wants to leave? Because he wants to go to bigger market.

Story of every smaller market team in last 5 years.
Also it's not true that playoffs don't increese value. Biyombo got $70M contract based on two games in playoffs.

depends on the player. I dont hear Damian Lillard demanding to go to a bigger market. Oladipo has seemed happy in 3 small markets. Kemba was fine in Charlotte. KAT, Conley, Gasol. A lot depends on the player and on the agent. The agent can sow discord between a player and a team, just look at your example of Davis.

How many nba teams are owned by person that has net worth of $21 000 000 000 that will just roll eye and pay luxury tax for years for team that isn't contender, yet is almost every year highest payed roster in basketball?
That's Portland, and Lillard and his massive contract ( just like massive contracts of Gasol, Conley, KAT, Wiggins....) are main reasons why their teams simply can't add enough peaces around them to contend.

People forget that main reason why Warriors were able to crate dinasty is because Curry played on contract lesser than Fultz 4th year option.

As for Kemba, for bleacher report , 4 different execs around nba literally said " stay or go ,Hornets are f**ked" because he is getting his max or leaving.

[OrlandoNed]

Do we really have a shot at De'angelo Russell now? The Nets can apparently renounce De'angelo Russell. I didn't know what the word renounce is so I googled the word renounce and it sounds like that means De'angelo Russell would be a free agent if the Nets renounce him?

Dude, no. Just delete this post.

1. They have zero reason to renounce a young freaking All-Star.
2. They want him back.
3. Russell wants to be there.

[tiderulz]

Beause he is 30ppg player with DPOY pedegree.
Also he played in playoffs last year and swept team ranked ahead of his.
AND why he wants to leave? Because he wants to go to bigger market.

Story of every smaller market team in last 5 years.
Also it's not true that playoffs don't increese value. Biyombo got $70M contract based on two games in playoffs.

depends on the player. I dont hear Damian Lillard demanding to go to a bigger market. Oladipo has seemed happy in 3 small markets. Kemba was fine in Charlotte. KAT, Conley, Gasol. A lot depends on the player and on the agent. The agent can sow discord between a player and a team, just look at your example of Davis.

How many nba teams are owned by person that has net worth of $21 000 000 000 that will just roll eye and pay luxury tax for years for team that isn't contender, yet is almost every year highest payed roster in basketball?
That's Portland, and Lillard and his massive contract ( just like massive contracts of Gasol, Conley, KAT, Wiggins....) are main reasons why their teams simply can't add enough peaces around them to contend.

People forget that main reason why Warriors were able to crate dinasty is because Curry played on contract lesser than Fultz 4th year option.

As for Kemba, for bleacher report , 4 different execs around nba literally said " stay or go ,Hornets are f**ked" because he is getting his max or leaving.

while you're statements are true, they dont disprove that some big name stars have been happy in small markets.

[pepe1991]

depends on the player. I dont hear Damian Lillard demanding to go to a bigger market. Oladipo has seemed happy in 3 small markets. Kemba was fine in Charlotte. KAT, Conley, Gasol. A lot depends on the player and on the agent. The agent can sow discord between a player and a team, just look at your example of Davis.

How many nba teams are owned by person that has net worth of $21 000 000 000 that will just roll eye and pay luxury tax for years for team that isn't contender, yet is almost every year highest payed roster in basketball?
That's Portland, and Lillard and his massive contract ( just like massive contracts of Gasol, Conley, KAT, Wiggins....) are main reasons why their teams simply can't add enough peaces around them to contend.

People forget that main reason why Warriors were able to crate dinasty is because Curry played on contract lesser than Fultz 4th year option.

As for Kemba, for bleacher report , 4 different execs around nba literally said " stay or go ,Hornets are f**ked" because he is getting his max or leaving.

while you're statements are true, they dont disprove that some big name stars have been happy in small markets.

Money makes them happy, not situation or ability to contend.
NBA changed rules to allow current team to offer by far the most when it comes to contract nogotions. From ability to get supermax, 5th year, early extension....