I am sold on Banchero for #1 pick.

[tooler]

But on this board, about Magic players in particular, i was right way, way more than i was wrong.

This isn't the metric of success for being a positive contributor on an Internet forum.

[Duke4life831]

Has his defense really been that much of a weakness? This is where I feel like confirmation bias kicks in.

I see people (not just on this thread) say that ya his defense hasnt been good so far, then look over when they talk about Jabari Smith and say his defense has lived up to the predraft hype. I know most defensive metrics are pretty weak, but is there a single thing that shows Jabari's defense has been any better than Paolo's so far?

Paolo:
DBPM: +0.5
Defensive On/Off: 7.9 points better
Defends 15.4 shots per game and is holding opponents to -5.9% below their average
Stocks (blocks and steals): 2 per game
DEF RAPTOR: +1.1

Jabari:
DBPM: -1.6
Defensive On/Off: 20.6 points worse
Defends 16 shots per game and is holding opponents to +1.9% above their average
Stocks (blocks and steals): 1.6 per game
DEF RAPTOR: -4.9

Im just curious if people were bashed in the head over and over again that Paolo was such a weak defender, 5 games in would people be saying his defense has been a weakness? Because of that I think many people focus on any little mistake he makes defensively. While if the predraft hype was flipped, I think many people would be saying that his defense has looked good so far.

[tooler]

Has his defense really been that much of a weakness?

I think this is asking the wrong question. The right question: "is defense barely even relevant for an alpha scorer in the NBA?"

He doesn't need to be Kawhi to be good enough on defense in his role. He just needs to be better than Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, James Harden, etc. All that matters is that teams don't hunt him on defense, especially all the alpha scoring wings in the league that take over the playoffs. I don't think that will happen.

He might struggle if he's switched onto one of those star guards, but everyone does.

Great stat check though.

[Duke4life831]

Has his defense really been that much of a weakness?

I think this is asking the wrong question. The right question: "is defense barely even relevant for an alpha scorer in the NBA?"

He doesn't need to be Kawhi to be good enough on defense in his role. He just needs to be better than Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, James Harden, etc. All that matters is that teams don't hunt him on defense, especially all the alpha scoring wings in the league that take over the playoffs. I don't think that will happen.

He might struggle if he's switched onto one of those star guards, but everyone does.

Great stat check though.

Oh ya, to be clear Im not stating I think Paolo maybe in DPOY discussions at some point in his career. I was just bringing up a more overarching thing we tend to see with these young players. They get painted as a good defender predraft, people basically will only see "good defense" from them for quite sometime. While if they get painted as a bad defender predraft, people basically will only see "bad defense" from them for quite sometime.

Im just using Paolo and Jabari as my examples for this because its easy to see at the moment. Whether its on the rookie thread or over on the draft board and defense for Jabari comes up, its usually described as something like, "as good as expected", "shows signs of All Defense ability", and so on. Then with Paolo its the complete opposite. When the defense is brought up, its mostly just how its a weakness and how he needs to really improve on that end.

And again I get defensive metrics (especially on small sample size) arent the best. But Ive caught most of your guys games so far, I wouldnt call Paolo's defense bad, especially for a rookie. I actually think he's been pretty solid on that end. And in all honesty out of all the rookies Ive watched so far, Tari Eason and Walker Kessler are the only two that I think have played defense clearly better than Paolo.

[tooler]

And again I get defensive metrics (especially on small sample size) arent the best. But Ive caught most of your guys games so far, I wouldnt call Paolo's defense bad, especially for a rookie.

I agree. He gets lost at times but that's normal for a rookie. He looks like he's motivated to prove his doubters wrong, so thanks go to those doubters!

[NavalAviator94]

But on this board, about Magic players in particular, i was right way, way more than i was wrong.

This isn't the metric of success for being a positive contributor on an Internet forum.

The truth is he was right much of the time. Many of us were hopeful when it was pretty obvious we had duds.

Paolo represents what a truly gifted players is and we’ve missed that for over a decade.


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[SOUL]

The truth is he was right much of the time. Many of us were hopeful when it was pretty obvious we had duds.

Paolo represents what a truly gifted players is and we’ve missed that for over a decade.

But you can just say "they suck" for most draft picks and 80% of the time you will be right. NBA franchises are the ones who invest time, money, lottery picks into players, and they need to be damn sure about what these guys are or what they can be.

There are also a lot of examples of guys who had sucked, people wrote their careers off, and then they blossomed either in year 3+ or after they got traded. I can think of a few guards just off the top of my head - Poole, VanVleet, Billups, etc. We have a prime example of it on our team now with Bol Bol. Even though people thought he was talented, they thought he would never put it together.

Being right is less important than people think. It only hurts in specific scenarios which is hanging on to a player for too long, or not knowing at ALL whether the player sucks or not. I feel like we did that with Hezonja where he may have become something, but he would get pulled for one turnover and never sniff the floor again. We declined his option, and then he started going off for us before leaving the team and a lot of people thought he'd blossom elsewhere. Turns out he was just below average in general, but still not completely knowing was a big risk we didn't have to take.

[swarlesbarkley]

As of May 19, I'm officially team Paolo.

I think defense can be coached much easier than offense. Honestly think we'd look pretty dangerous with a Franz/Paolo wing combo - sort of like Tatum/Brown where both wings can handle and score - I'd put Franz/Paolo as better passers than the Boston duo though - which, on paper, would be super dangerous and tough to guard.

Paolo also looks to have the highest BBIQ of the top guys.

[MagicStarwipe]

This forum should be renamed "pepe." 60% of posts are either people getting into back and forths with him or just mentioning him randomly. It makes me so BUTT-HURT! Well no, not really, it just makes this place tedious.

[KillMonger]

man did xatticus really leave because we picked banchero instead of chet? i was wondering why i didn't see him around anymore

[tiderulz]

man did xatticus really leave because we picked banchero instead of chet? i was wondering why i didn't see him around anymore

guess so, looks like he is active on the OKC board

[pepe1991]

man did xatticus really leave because we picked banchero instead of chet? i was wondering why i didn't see him around anymore

guess so, looks like he is active on the OKC board

Guy who blocked me after claiming Bamba is more talented than Vuc. woof

[pepe1991]

The truth is he was right much of the time. Many of us were hopeful when it was pretty obvious we had duds.

Paolo represents what a truly gifted players is and we’ve missed that for over a decade.

But you can just say "they suck" for most draft picks and 80% of the time you will be right. NBA franchises are the ones who invest time, money, lottery picks into players, and they need to be damn sure about what these guys are or what they can be.

There are also a lot of examples of guys who had sucked, people wrote their careers off, and then they blossomed either in year 3+ or after they got traded. I can think of a few guards just off the top of my head - Poole, VanVleet, Billups, etc. We have a prime example of it on our team now with Bol Bol. Even though people thought he was talented, they thought he would never put it together.

Being right is less important than people think. It only hurts in specific scenarios which is hanging on to a player for too long, or not knowing at ALL whether the player sucks or not. I feel like we did that with Hezonja where he may have become something, but he would get pulled for one turnover and never sniff the floor again. We declined his option, and then he started going off for us before leaving the team and a lot of people thought he'd blossom elsewhere. Turns out he was just below average in general, but still not completely knowing was a big risk we didn't have to take.

I don't see any value of being blind homer about every person that puts jersey of your favorite team on.
What's the point?
Reasons why most of comunist & planned economy failed is because nobody had guts to say the truth in fear of consequences if they step away from single-mind of all mighty political party. And it was their demise.


Hezonja failed because he is , as person, ignorant fool. He still is. You watch him in Eurobasket and he still is glorified, overused,athletic role player who's BBIQ does not match his skillset and his delusional view of himself.

And no, there is not " plenty" of players that sucked than broke out. Fact you have to mention Billups proves that. Billups "broke out" as player 20 years ago.
Vleet and Poole were established bench players on contenders in 3rd years. How is that "breaking out late". Poole is 22 and signed max contract. He had awful rookie year, but that's about it.

Point about being right isn't braging right. But present and past are best indicators of future and you can see patterns to predict future based on previous actions better.

IF you have history of PGs who can't shoot for s*** drafted in lottery and failing over and over and over again, yes , you can make healthy prediction, next PG who can't shoot will have mediocre career. Outliners will exist ( Morant) but there is way more Mudiay's, Payton's, Ntiklinas of the world than Morant.

[SOUL]

.

Poole was worst player in the league his first year and so many people gave up on him. Goes for a lot of rookies/players in general. As we can see, people make up their minds in summer league, pre season.. 5 games into the season.. there are a lot of opinions and people who made up their mind already

[pepe1991]

.

Poole was worst player in the league his first year and so many people gave up on him. Goes for a lot of rookies/players in general. As we can see, people make up their minds in summer league, pre season.. 5 games into the season.. there are a lot of opinions and people who made up their mind already

Yes. As a 28th pick in draft,as a rookie.

People can make mind about somebody as 13 years old. Doesn't really matter.

However it's not same when top 10 pick looks like complete and utter garbage ( Killian Hayes) or 28th pick ( Poole).
Expetations and investments are vastly different.

And Poole himself, had to fight into rotation. He got several DNP-CDs in second year as well.
Killian Hayes, due his draft stock, was always awarded all his min, never earning anything.
We can see midway through second year two players at same age going on two very different development paths due multiple reasons, including how they were treated.

Where myself and most people on forum don't agree upon is awarding player year after year with min and usage based on draft stock, rather treating him equal to others.
And i will always go back to Payton to use him as most obvious example how harmful for him it was Magic' approach to treat him like he is locked for starting PG in nba, while his game was yelling " i'm 3rd stringer". Why would he ever bother to improve if somebody is enabling him and lying that he is "good " to him?

We had that situation with 2 coaches and 2 rookies.
Scott Skiles and Payton where he knew he can't have competitive team with Payton.
And Clifford who knew he can't have competitive team with Bamba.

And in both cases it's a coach, not front office, not fans who was right. Payton is 28 and out of a league, Bamba is on similar tragjectory.
Both of them got sacked BEFORE team moved from prospect. Because prospects are diret representation of front office, and coaches are disposable. However, it's coaches, not front office who watches those players every day and have best isnight in their ability or lack of ability.

Yes , Billups did turn into good player after 5 years and 5 teams. But since that happend ( 2002) probably 3000-4000 players played and it didn't happen to majority of them. At some point you are facing outliners and treat them like rule, ignoring evidence against it.
Same with Kyle Lowry.


Again, to me it's not about right or wrong, when i'm wrong i always admit it, and i'm fine with that notion. It's about establishing objective reality and evaluation of somebody within of context of team and league.
And let's not pretend that people here stay level-headed when it comes to players they like vs players they don't. There is no evidence whatsoever that Fultz is better than Anthony Cole, who played 16 games less than Fultz,despite being drafted 3 years after Fultz. Vast majority of their advenced stats are near identical.
Yet Fultz is "starter", "future MIP", " maybe allstar" according to same people who think 2 years young Cole is - "best suited for 6th man".

Or , when i joined forum , i once said that i think Harris will be better than Gordon. Whole hell broke lose. Why? Because Gordon was forum's sweetheart and Harris was "intruder" because team didn't invested year of sucking and lottery pick in him.

[fateis007]

Please stop spamming up my thread. Paolo rocks and that is all there is too it. lol

[IllMagic04]

I just took a trip down memory lane and read through this entire thread. ( clearly a slow day at work for me ) What a roller coaster ride that draft was. All worth it in the end because we got an NBA all star in year 2! Shout out to all the pro Paolo people and especially fateis007 who never lost faith despite all the BS rumors. I lost faith but the joy I felt knowing we were drafting and keeping Paolo is something I'll never forget.

[MAGICian619]

Banchero reminds me of an old school PF who knows that old school PFs are no longer a thing so he is forcing himself to play more on the wing.

No thanks.

I am so embarrassed that this was the first reply to this thread 2 years ago.

I am so sorry Paolo! I was wrong!!!!!!!!!

[yoyojw17]

Banchero reminds me of an old school PF who knows that old school PFs are no longer a thing so he is forcing himself to play more on the wing.

No thanks.

I am so embarrassed that this was the first reply to this thread 2 years ago.

I am so sorry Paolo! I was wrong!!!!!!!!!

applaud you for going back and calling yourself out.

[SKYN]

man did xatticus really leave because we picked banchero instead of chet? i was wondering why i didn't see him around anymore

Of all people to tie your hitch to, to give up fandom, Chet wouldn't have been that guy for me.