Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[tiderulz]

How many nba teams are owned by person that has net worth of $21 000 000 000 that will just roll eye and pay luxury tax for years for team that isn't contender, yet is almost every year highest payed roster in basketball?
That's Portland, and Lillard and his massive contract ( just like massive contracts of Gasol, Conley, KAT, Wiggins....) are main reasons why their teams simply can't add enough peaces around them to contend.

People forget that main reason why Warriors were able to crate dinasty is because Curry played on contract lesser than Fultz 4th year option.

As for Kemba, for bleacher report , 4 different execs around nba literally said " stay or go ,Hornets are f**ked" because he is getting his max or leaving.

while you're statements are true, they dont disprove that some big name stars have been happy in small markets.

Money makes them happy, not situation or ability to contend.
NBA changed rules to allow current team to offer by far the most when it comes to contract nogotions. From ability to get supermax, 5th year, early extension....

really? Wade/Lebron/Bosh all took less money to win. Dirk has taken less money. Durant took less money to win in GS( i dont think he will next contract). Lillard took less money. Cousins took less money for a chance at a title. Lou Williams.

not every player will only play for a team for the absolute max possible to them.

[ezzzp]

while you're statements are true, they dont disprove that some big name stars have been happy in small markets.

Wade/Lebron/Bosh all took less money to win. Dirk has taken less money. Durant took less money to win in GS( i dont think he will next contract). Lillard took less money. Cousins took less money for a chance at a title. Lou Williams.

not every player will only play for a team for the absolute max possible to them.

Those aren't small markets though. Lillard is probably the only example that I see that's anywhere close to similar to Orlando context.

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Dallas/Ft.Worth is one of the biggest markets in all US sports. Dirk's relationship with Mark Cuban is unique + again that's a franchise the has always spent money to stay competitive. While Dirk was still productive and capable of being key player Cuban was committed to spend to remain competitive. They bottomed out only after Dirk was basically an honorary player. On top of that, Dallas is/has been for years revered by players and agents for how much money they spend on infrastructure to keep their players happy and with access to cutting edge/top of the line everything possible to make them better.

Cousins took less money because he just had an achilles injury, one of the worst injuries for an NBA player. He also did it to sign with a dynasty in a major NBA region SF/Oakland/San Jose (6th biggest market in NBA). SF is also an 30-40 minute flight to Sacramento - that's for commercial (not private like he probably uses). In addition to that, the Bay Area is known for how it provides off-court investment opportunities to its athletes. This applies to Durant as well.

LA is the #2 biggest sports market and the top destination city in US sports. Lou Williams was 31 and a career back up when he signed 3yr/$24m (17.5 guaranteed). $8m per year was most money he had ever been offered in entire career. Clippers/Doc Rivers also had utilized him very well focused on staying competitive and thus elevated his value so he was very happy resigning there.

[tiderulz]

while you're statements are true, they dont disprove that some big name stars have been happy in small markets.

Wade/Lebron/Bosh all took less money to win. Dirk has taken less money. Durant took less money to win in GS( i dont think he will next contract). Lillard took less money. Cousins took less money for a chance at a title. Lou Williams.

not every player will only play for a team for the absolute max possible to them.

Those aren't small markets though. Lillard is probably the only example that I see that's anywhere close to similar to Orlando context.

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Dallas/Ft.Worth is one of the biggest markets in all US sports. Dirk's relationship with Mark Cuban is unique + again that's a franchise the has always spent money to stay competitive. While Dirk was still productive and capable of being key player Cuban was committed to spend to remain competitive. They bottomed out only after Dirk was basically an honorary player. On top of that, Dallas is/has been for years revered by players and agents for how much money they spend on infrastructure to keep their players happy and with access to cutting edge/top of the line everything possible to make them better.

Cousins took less money because he just had an achilles injury, one of the worst injuries for an NBA player. He also did it to sign with a dynasty in a major NBA region SF/Oakland/San Jose. SF is also an 30-40 minute flight to Sacramento. In addition to that, the Bay Area is known for how it provides off-court investment opportunities to its athletes. This applies to Durant as well.

LA is the #2 biggest sports market and the top destination city in US sports. Lou Williams was 31 and a career back up when he signed 3yr/$24m (17.5 guaranteed). $8m per year was most money he had ever been offered in entire career. Clippers/Doc Rivers also had utilized him very well and elevated his value so he was very happy resigning there.

you are comparing 2 different statements. the first was when Pepe he said no stars would be happy in a small market. Then he said that stars only want money first, that they dont care about winning. The 2nd statement was showing that many "stars" of different levels have taken discounts to either win or be in a place they want to be in. Dirk has wanted to stay in Dallas. Lou Williams wanted to stay in LA, thus he took less than he could have elsewhere. Same with Cousins.

[ezzzp]

you are comparing 2 different statements. the first was when Pepe he said no stars would be happy in a small market. Then he said that stars only want money first, that they dont care about winning. The 2nd statement was showing that many "stars" of different levels have taken discounts to either win or be in a place they want to be in. Dirk has wanted to stay in Dallas. Lou Williams wanted to stay in LA, thus he took less than he could have elsewhere. Same with Cousins.

Ok, I understand. The point I was trying to get across is that the Orlando context is unique. The Magic organization and how it is viewed by free agents and their representatives has a long way to go to get to a similar context that made those examples sign for less.

Even though I'm very happy with how the new FO has committed to spending on infrastructure, and how they have shown a patient methodical approach in dealing with the roster - the Orlando context right now is still one where they must continue to prove that they are committed to winning games all year for player/agent opinion to change.

[yoyojw17]

Watch on YouTube

MAN I LOVE LISTENING TOSTAN! Wish he could have made it back into the organization in some capacity

[tiderulz]

Watch on YouTube

MAN I LOVE LISTENING TOSTAN! Wish he could have made it back into the organization in some capacity

was his own fault. you know talk goes on behind the scenes with teams and their stars. When you publicly air that info out, you burn your bridges with that organization.

edit: not saying he deserved to get fired, but he got his money and moved on to a better job. he just lit the bridges on fire behind him

[ezzzp]

Watch on YouTube

MAN I LOVE LISTENING TOSTAN! Wish he could have made it back into the organization in some capacity

was his own fault. you know talk goes on behind the scenes with teams and their stars. When you publicly air that info out, you burn your bridges with that organization.

edit: not saying he deserved to get fired, but he got his money and moved on to a better job. he just lit the bridges on fire behind him

I'd love to hear an unrestrained (non-PR friendly) detailed account of the decisions and events surrounding the Dwightmare from him and Otis Smith.

I have never read Brian Schmidtz "Dwightmare" book...might have to find that online

[pepe1991]

while you're statements are true, they dont disprove that some big name stars have been happy in small markets.

Wade/Lebron/Bosh all took less money to win. Dirk has taken less money. Durant took less money to win in GS( i dont think he will next contract). Lillard took less money. Cousins took less money for a chance at a title. Lou Williams.

not every player will only play for a team for the absolute max possible to them.

Those aren't small markets though. Lillard is probably the only example that I see that's anywhere close to similar to Orlando context.

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Dallas/Ft.Worth is one of the biggest markets in all US sports. Dirk's relationship with Mark Cuban is unique + again that's a franchise the has always spent money to stay competitive. While Dirk was still productive and capable of being key player Cuban was committed to spend to remain competitive. They bottomed out only after Dirk was basically an honorary player. On top of that, Dallas is/has been for years revered by players and agents for how much money they spend on infrastructure to keep their players happy and with access to cutting edge/top of the line everything possible to make them better.

Cousins took less money because he just had an achilles injury, one of the worst injuries for an NBA player. He also did it to sign with a dynasty in a major NBA region SF/Oakland/San Jose. SF is also an 30-40 minute flight to Sacramento. In addition to that, the Bay Area is known for how it provides off-court investment opportunities to its athletes. This applies to Durant as well.

LA is the #2 biggest sports market and the top destination city in US sports. Lou Williams was 31 and a career back up when he signed 3yr/$24m (17.5 guaranteed). $8m per year was most money he had ever been offered in entire career. Clippers/Doc Rivers also had utilized him very well and elevated his value so he was very happy resigning there.

you are comparing 2 different statements. the first was when Pepe he said no stars would be happy in a small market. Then he said that stars only want money first, that they dont care about winning. The 2nd statement was showing that many "stars" of different levels have taken discounts to either win or be in a place they want to be in. Dirk has wanted to stay in Dallas. Lou Williams wanted to stay in LA, thus he took less than he could have elsewhere. Same with Cousins.

I'm pretty sure that Dame signed max contract that in 2015 was 5 years $130M .
He also was vocal about making all nba team, that will make him eligible for super max worth $250M in two years

Read on Twitter

Lebron, Wade and Bosh took little less from their market value at times , to sign on same team. Difference was cap space who in 2011 was around $58M, yet all 3 of them were making around $16M as far as i can remember, in times when nobody but Kobe Bryant had contract over $20M ( actually Rashard Lewis was second highest player that year, with salary lower than Gordon has for this year ).

My point is that players like Dame are happy on small market teams because they get crazy money, yet some teams are happy with salary, some want to contend and megastars like Davis can get both. Lillard probably also could ,but he said he hates superteams ,again, that's his personal opionion and who am i to tell him that he is wrong. I would like to be wrong with $30M a year too.

[Maikson]

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Why is Miami a big market and Orlando an average or small one? Nightlife?

Actually what Orlando is? Average or small? There is any tax benefit for playing in Florida compared to some other states? I've read once that if Hayward signed the same contract for the Heat instead of the Celtics he would make more money because of taxes.

[Popsicle1228]

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Why is Miami a big market and Orlando an average or small one? Nightlife?

Actually what Orlando is? Average or small? There is any tax benefit for playing in Florida compared to some other states? I've read once that if Hayward signed the same contract for the Heat instead of the Celtics he would make more money because of taxes.

Florida is 1 of 7 states that does not have a state income tax, and only 3 of the 7 states actually have an NBA team or teams (Florida, Texas, Tennessee). The lack of a state income tax is enticing to NBA players. Especially those with a very high salary because they can make considerably more money.

Because it has been a long time, people forget that Orlando has signed highly coveted players in the past via free agency. Most notably T-Mac, Grant Hill (top 5 at the time), and it was basically a fluke that we did not end up with Tim Duncan. People also forget or may not know that Shaq at one point wanted to end his career in Florida. I believe he even keeps his homestead in Orlando because he is a smart business person and appreciates the tax savings. In fact, Shaq wanted specifically to come back to the Magic and play with Tracy McGrady when things started going south with the Lakers. However, Tracy had his falling out with Olrando just prior to the big trade that lead Shaq going to Miami instead. Had Tracy not left, there is a significant probability Shaq would have been here instead of Miami.

I believe that if Orlando begins to brand themselves as a succseful franchise with competent management, we could again entice big name free agents. In my opinion, that begins with establishing a winning brand of basketball, and not losing your best players/assets for nothing. Other agents/players notice poor asset management, and perpetually losing cultures. In all, I believe our management is perhaps the most competant it has been since John Gabriel left, and we can once again become a destination for free agents. Despite the "small to average size market."

[ezzzp]

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Why is Miami a big market and Orlando an average or small one? Nightlife?

Actually what Orlando is? Average or small? There is any tax benefit for playing in Florida compared to some other states? I've read once that if Hayward signed the same contract for the Heat instead of the Celtics he would make more money because of taxes.

Miami is an international glamour hub catering to a young wealthy high profile lifestyle. Its a diverse international city unlike any in the US.

Orlando caters to family tourism and low key family lifestyle.

There is no comparison, if you are young and wealthy only NYC and LA compare to Miami, but neither of those have the tax laws that make it extra appealing.

[woosah]

So on PHX board, the chatter is (due to the new coach hire) that TJ Warren is likely to be traded (by some reporter who called the Monty hire. Any interest here? Defense isn't good but maybe Cliff can do something to make it passable. Just throwing it out there. Maybe a possible target (if we lose Ross) to score off the bench?

[zaymon]

So on PHX board, the chatter is (due to the new coach hire) that TJ Warren is likely to be traded (by some reporter who called the Monty hire. Any interest here? Defense isn't good but maybe Cliff can do something to make it passable. Just throwing it out there. Maybe a possible target (if we lose Ross) to score off the bench?

It will be hard to find a fit here, especially with his salary. Our draft pick is too valuable for us from financial standpoint. Gordon is worth much more and we wont trade him for a role player. I do know who else could we trade with any sense. Nice player but it would requaire some good strategy to work and we have too many unknowns

[pepe1991]

So on PHX board, the chatter is (due to the new coach hire) that TJ Warren is likely to be traded (by some reporter who called the Monty hire. Any interest here? Defense isn't good but maybe Cliff can do something to make it passable. Just throwing it out there. Maybe a possible target (if we lose Ross) to score off the bench?

Give them Fultz

[Catledge]

Miami is one of the most desirable free agent destination cities in the NBA and US sports. The LeBron/Bosh/Wade super-team took less money to contend - but also to live there as they had other options of where to team up. On top of that, they signed on with proven championship GM Pat Riley at the helm and to a franchise that had consistently proven itself.

Why is Miami a big market and Orlando an average or small one? Nightlife?

Actually what Orlando is? Average or small? There is any tax benefit for playing in Florida compared to some other states? I've read once that if Hayward signed the same contract for the Heat instead of the Celtics he would make more money because of taxes.

Florida is 1 of 7 states that does not have a state income tax, and only 3 of the 7 states actually have an NBA team or teams (Florida, Texas, Tennessee). The lack of a state income tax is enticing to NBA players. Especially those with a very high salary because they can make considerably more money.

Two part debunking of this:

1) This is a slight oversimplification, but NBA players effectively pay the tax rate of the state where each game is played. Magic players pay the Georgia state tax when they play at the Hawks. So players save less than it seems by playing for teams in no-state-tax states.

2) If state income tax really mattered to NBA stars, none of them would currently be playing for the Lakers or Warriors, which are both based in a very high-tax state. The fact is that when you get up into the top 1%-2% of incomes, marginal tax rates have very little impact on people's residency decisions. That's why there are boatloads of rich people in LA, San Francisco, and NYC and a dramatically smaller number of rich people in Chattanooga.

I agree with your larger point that we can become a desirable FA destination, but it will be about being a good team, not about the state tax rate.

[Popsicle1228]

Why is Miami a big market and Orlando an average or small one? Nightlife?

Actually what Orlando is? Average or small? There is any tax benefit for playing in Florida compared to some other states? I've read once that if Hayward signed the same contract for the Heat instead of the Celtics he would make more money because of taxes.

Florida is 1 of 7 states that does not have a state income tax, and only 3 of the 7 states actually have an NBA team or teams (Florida, Texas, Tennessee). The lack of a state income tax is enticing to NBA players. Especially those with a very high salary because they can make considerably more money.

Two part debunking of this:

1) This is a slight oversimplification, but NBA players effectively pay the tax rate of the state where each game is played. Magic players pay the Georgia state tax when they play at the Hawks. So players save less than it seems by playing for teams in no-state-tax states.

2) If state income tax really mattered to NBA stars, none of them would currently be playing for the Lakers or Warriors, which are both based in a very high-tax state. The fact is that when you get up into the top 1%-2% of incomes, marginal tax rates have very little impact on people's residency decisions. That's why there are boatloads of rich people in LA, San Francisco, and NYC and a dramatically smaller number of rich people in Chattanooga.

I agree with your larger point that we can become a desirable FA destination, but it will be about being a good team, not about the state tax rate.

1. What you said is true, and I actually forgot each players tax burden is structured the way you laid out. However, 41 games in Orlando will make a significant difference in an NBA players tax burden simply because their per game salary can in many cases equate to more than the average American worker makes in a year.

2. I agree that some and potentially many players do not weigh the tax benefit heavily on making a decision on where to play. To your point, some players will take a significant pay cut in their base salary to play for a winning team. However, one can surmise with near absolute certainty that that Magic pitch the lack of State sales tax to every major free agent. If not all free agents.

Lastly, I agree that most players decision will be weighted more towards signing with a winning team with a winning culture versus what can be saved via income tax laws. I was mostly just answering the OPs question. Nevertheless, I do believe Florida’s tax benefit does play a role in attracting players to Orlando, but serves as merely icing on the cake when combined with playing for a winning team. Being able to play for a well managed team with winning culture is of course, the cake.

[Xatticus]

For Magic, as "passable" as Gordon and Isaac were this year as duo, in both cases team played better when one of them was replaced by Ross.
That's quantifiable, measurable fact.

Well... the Isaac/Gordon/Fournier lineup (+0.1) was actually better than the Isaac/Ross/Fournier lineup (-5.5). The Isaac/Gordon/Ross lineup (+18.9) was far better than any of the combinations involving Fournier.

[Viper1500]

For Magic, as "passable" as Gordon and Isaac were this year as duo, in both cases team played better when one of them was replaced by Ross.
That's quantifiable, measurable fact.

Well... the Isaac/Gordon/Fournier lineup (+0.1) was actually better than the Isaac/Ross/Fournier lineup (-5.5). The Isaac/Gordon/Ross lineup (+18.9) was far better than any of the combinations involving Fournier.

Plus Ross was arguably our 2nd best player all year so this isn't saying much.

[Xatticus]

Do we really have a shot at De'angelo Russell now? The Nets can apparently renounce De'angelo Russell. I didn't know what the word renounce is so I googled the word renounce and it sounds like that means De'angelo Russell would be a free agent if the Nets renounce him?

Dude, no. Just delete this post.

1. They have zero reason to renounce a young freaking All-Star.
2. They want him back.
3. Russell wants to be there.

It's really not far-fetched that he hits the trade market. They already have Dinwiddie locked into a very nice 3-year extension that kicks in after this season. I believe I heard recently that his team's offense has been better when he has been off the floor in three of his four years in the league.

Brooklyn can hit free agency this year with guns blazing. They won't have to make a decision on Russell right away if he doesn't get a big offer sheet from someone when free agency opens. If they can get commitments from a couple big names, it would make sense to simply renounce Russell to free up cap space.

Russell is really overrated on this board because he scorched us this past season and because our starting PG is DJ Augustin.

[tiderulz]

For Magic, as "passable" as Gordon and Isaac were this year as duo, in both cases team played better when one of them was replaced by Ross.
That's quantifiable, measurable fact.

Well... the Isaac/Gordon/Fournier lineup (+0.1) was actually better than the Isaac/Ross/Fournier lineup (-5.5). The Isaac/Gordon/Ross lineup (+18.9) was far better than any of the combinations involving Fournier.

Plus Ross was arguably our 2nd best player all year so this isn't saying much.

at any time, i think it was arguable that Ross/Fournier/Gordon were the 2nd best player depending on the night.