Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

[basketballRob]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[pepe1991]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

That's factually false.
By RPM Iwundu is much worst.
ByBPM Iwundu has negative impact.

By RAPTOR data Iwundu is the worst Orlando Magic player that gets into rotation.

But that's not suprising when you know that Magic have no offense and he is by wide margin worst offensive player they have.
Career 45% eFG on 5ppg makes MCW look like Steph Curry.

[Xatticus]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

That's factually false.
By RPM Iwundu is much worst.
ByBPM Iwundu has negative impact.

By RAPTOR data Iwundu is the worst Orlando Magic player that gets into rotation.

But that's not suprising when you know that Magic have no offense and he is by wide margin worst offensive player they have.
Career 45% eFG on 5ppg makes MCW look like Steph Curry.

You aren't actually refuting his claim. He said Fournier is better, but we were better with Iwundu on the floor. We can talk about sample sizes and how representative they are, but Orlando was better with Iwundu (+0.4 netrtg, +28 plus/minus) on the floor than with Fournier (-3.0 netrtg, -121 plus/minus) on the floor this year.

[pepe1991]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

That's factually false.
By RPM Iwundu is much worst.
ByBPM Iwundu has negative impact.

By RAPTOR data Iwundu is the worst Orlando Magic player that gets into rotation.

But that's not suprising when you know that Magic have no offense and he is by wide margin worst offensive player they have.
Career 45% eFG on 5ppg makes MCW look like Steph Curry.

You aren't actually refuting his claim. He said Fournier is better, but we were better with Iwundu on the floor. We can talk about sample sizes and how representative they are, but Orlando was better with Iwundu (+0.4 netrtg, +28 plus/minus) on the floor than with Fournier (-3.0 netrtg, -121 plus/minus) on the floor this year.

Lot of it is nothing but pure coincidence.
He has +60 in 3 games ( his highest +/- ) where he combined for ;
16 points , 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

Once again, we are team that is desperate for offense, him scoring 10 or more points 5 times paints perfect picture of player he is. Deep bench guy.

Evan's impact as shooter is overlooked. I already posted if few days back. If Evan is replaced by 34% three point shooter, Magic would have second worst shooting offense since 2015-16 Lakers.

The Magic’s two-guard finished 21st league-wide in terms of three-point accuracy, and while that might seem a long way from a rank befitting an MVP case, consider this: to remove Fournier’s field goal percentage on triples from the Orlando lineup would see the team plummet from their current standing as an insipid three-point shooting team (25th league-wide on 34.1%) to truly awful (32.4%, a figure which would be good for dead last). In fact, one would have to go back five years to find a team that shot worse than the hypothetically Fournier-less Magic (the 2015-16 Lakers). In a rapidly evolving game he’s the only thing keeping the team from resembling a relic of a bygone era.

Fournier’s three-point shooting is proven even more valuable when you consider it alongside some of his marksmen contemporaries. Pulling his contributions drops Orlando’s long-range field goal percentage to a woebegone 32.4%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points that is unmatched across the league by anyone. It doesn’t matter which sniper you remove from their respective team’s data — not George Hill, not JJ Redick, not even the scarily voluminous and accurate Duncan Robinson — no absence of a single player has as significant an impact on their team’s overall shooting figures as Fournier.

So as you can see, vacuum data of Iwundu's PT and his "impact" is pretty much just that, vacuum stats without much context that can't be taken too seriously to analyze it.
On top of that, and in corelation with shooting. Iwundu whole season long took 1 three point shot that was actually contested.
66 out of 67 were open or wide open. He is actually so dreadwful of a shooter, that on wide open 3s he shot below LEAGUE'S AVERAGE OF ANY THREE POINT THREES ( 34,6% from wide open 3s, league's average for 3 is almost 36%):

So yea, it's 3 point league, and his 5 ppg on 47% eFG has no value. And that's why on most of the nights, if it's possible, he is DNP guy.

[Xatticus]

That's factually false.
By RPM Iwundu is much worst.
ByBPM Iwundu has negative impact.

By RAPTOR data Iwundu is the worst Orlando Magic player that gets into rotation.

But that's not suprising when you know that Magic have no offense and he is by wide margin worst offensive player they have.
Career 45% eFG on 5ppg makes MCW look like Steph Curry.

You aren't actually refuting his claim. He said Fournier is better, but we were better with Iwundu on the floor. We can talk about sample sizes and how representative they are, but Orlando was better with Iwundu (+0.4 netrtg, +28 plus/minus) on the floor than with Fournier (-3.0 netrtg, -121 plus/minus) on the floor this year.

Lot of it is nothing but pure coincidence.
He has +60 in 3 games ( his highest +/- ) where he combined for ;
16 points , 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

Once again, we are team that is desperate for offense, him scoring 10 or more points 5 times paints perfect picture of player he is. Deep bench guy.

Evan's impact as shooter is overlooked. I already posted if few days back. If Evan is replaced by 34% three point shooter, Magic would have second worst shooting offense since 2015-16 Lakers.

The Magic’s two-guard finished 21st league-wide in terms of three-point accuracy, and while that might seem a long way from a rank befitting an MVP case, consider this: to remove Fournier’s field goal percentage on triples from the Orlando lineup would see the team plummet from their current standing as an insipid three-point shooting team (25th league-wide on 34.1%) to truly awful (32.4%, a figure which would be good for dead last). In fact, one would have to go back five years to find a team that shot worse than the hypothetically Fournier-less Magic (the 2015-16 Lakers). In a rapidly evolving game he’s the only thing keeping the team from resembling a relic of a bygone era.

Fournier’s three-point shooting is proven even more valuable when you consider it alongside some of his marksmen contemporaries. Pulling his contributions drops Orlando’s long-range field goal percentage to a woebegone 32.4%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points that is unmatched across the league by anyone. It doesn’t matter which sniper you remove from their respective team’s data — not George Hill, not JJ Redick, not even the scarily voluminous and accurate Duncan Robinson — no absence of a single player has as significant an impact on their team’s overall shooting figures as Fournier.

So as you can see, vacuum data of Iwundu's PT and his "impact" is pretty much just that, vacuum stats without much context that can't be taken too seriously to analyze it.
On top of that, and in corelation with shooting. Iwundu whole season long took 1 three point shot that was actually contested.
66 out of 67 were open or wide open. He is actually so dreadwful of a shooter, that on wide open 3s he shot below LEAGUE'S AVERAGE OF ANY THREE POINT THREES ( 34,6% from wide open 3s, league's average for 3 is almost 36%):

So yea, it's 3 point league, and his 5 ppg on 47% eFG has no value. And that's why on most of the nights, if it's possible, he is DNP guy.

I saw that article. The author said he was trying to keep a straight face. That means he wasn't sincere in his argument.

It's not really about how good Iwundu is. It's about how bad we are when Fournier is on the floor. We are the Chicago Bulls (-3.1 netrtg) when Fournier is on the floor (-3.0 netrtg). We are the Indiana Pacers (+2.0 netrtg) when he isn't (+1.8 netrtg).

His shooting isn't overlooked. It is overrated. He is getting paid $17M per year for his shooting. He just doesn't offer anything else of value. He is a poor defender that can't guard people his own size, he doesn't make good decisions with the ball in his hands, and he doesn't rebound. He isn't a terrible offensive player, but it is really difficult to argue that he is actually a good offensive player considering that the three players he has played the most minutes with (Fultz, Vucevic, and Gordon) each have higher offensive ratings than he does. And this is in his career year.

[basketballRob]

The Magic vs Rockets second game replay is playing. The first one Harden had like 45 points and a triple double. This game Fournier's out and they shut him down.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[SHAQ32]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

That's factually false.
By RPM Iwundu is much worst.
ByBPM Iwundu has negative impact.

By RAPTOR data Iwundu is the worst Orlando Magic player that gets into rotation.

But that's not suprising when you know that Magic have no offense and he is by wide margin worst offensive player they have.
Career 45% eFG on 5ppg makes MCW look like Steph Curry.

What's the RPM data for Iwundu last year, as he played much better?

[J the Drafter]

The Magic vs Rockets second game replay is playing. The first one Harden had like 45 points and a triple double. This game Fournier's out and they shut him down.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Rockets fans have been saying Harden was hurt during that stretch of play. It was (one of?) the reasons Houston went into a tailspin.

[pepe1991]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

That's factually false.
By RPM Iwundu is much worst.
ByBPM Iwundu has negative impact.

By RAPTOR data Iwundu is the worst Orlando Magic player that gets into rotation.

But that's not suprising when you know that Magic have no offense and he is by wide margin worst offensive player they have.
Career 45% eFG on 5ppg makes MCW look like Steph Curry.

What's the RPM data for Iwundu last year, as he played much better?

Last year he was one of worst players in nba ( -3,54) .

[pepe1991]

You aren't actually refuting his claim. He said Fournier is better, but we were better with Iwundu on the floor. We can talk about sample sizes and how representative they are, but Orlando was better with Iwundu (+0.4 netrtg, +28 plus/minus) on the floor than with Fournier (-3.0 netrtg, -121 plus/minus) on the floor this year.

Lot of it is nothing but pure coincidence.
He has +60 in 3 games ( his highest +/- ) where he combined for ;
16 points , 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

Once again, we are team that is desperate for offense, him scoring 10 or more points 5 times paints perfect picture of player he is. Deep bench guy.

Evan's impact as shooter is overlooked. I already posted if few days back. If Evan is replaced by 34% three point shooter, Magic would have second worst shooting offense since 2015-16 Lakers.

The Magic’s two-guard finished 21st league-wide in terms of three-point accuracy, and while that might seem a long way from a rank befitting an MVP case, consider this: to remove Fournier’s field goal percentage on triples from the Orlando lineup would see the team plummet from their current standing as an insipid three-point shooting team (25th league-wide on 34.1%) to truly awful (32.4%, a figure which would be good for dead last). In fact, one would have to go back five years to find a team that shot worse than the hypothetically Fournier-less Magic (the 2015-16 Lakers). In a rapidly evolving game he’s the only thing keeping the team from resembling a relic of a bygone era.

Fournier’s three-point shooting is proven even more valuable when you consider it alongside some of his marksmen contemporaries. Pulling his contributions drops Orlando’s long-range field goal percentage to a woebegone 32.4%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points that is unmatched across the league by anyone. It doesn’t matter which sniper you remove from their respective team’s data — not George Hill, not JJ Redick, not even the scarily voluminous and accurate Duncan Robinson — no absence of a single player has as significant an impact on their team’s overall shooting figures as Fournier.

So as you can see, vacuum data of Iwundu's PT and his "impact" is pretty much just that, vacuum stats without much context that can't be taken too seriously to analyze it.
On top of that, and in corelation with shooting. Iwundu whole season long took 1 three point shot that was actually contested.
66 out of 67 were open or wide open. He is actually so dreadwful of a shooter, that on wide open 3s he shot below LEAGUE'S AVERAGE OF ANY THREE POINT THREES ( 34,6% from wide open 3s, league's average for 3 is almost 36%):

So yea, it's 3 point league, and his 5 ppg on 47% eFG has no value. And that's why on most of the nights, if it's possible, he is DNP guy.

I saw that article. The author said he was trying to keep a straight face. That means he wasn't sincere in his argument.

It's not really about how good Iwundu is. It's about how bad we are when Fournier is on the floor. We are the Chicago Bulls (-3.1 netrtg) when Fournier is on the floor (-3.0 netrtg). We are the Indiana Pacers (+2.0 netrtg) when he isn't (+1.8 netrtg).

His shooting isn't overlooked. It is overrated. He is getting paid $17M per year for his shooting. He just doesn't offer anything else of value. He is a poor defender that can't guard people his own size, he doesn't make good decisions with the ball in his hands, and he doesn't rebound. He isn't a terrible offensive player, but it is really difficult to argue that he is actually a good offensive player considering that the three players he has played the most minutes with (Fultz, Vucevic, and Gordon) each have higher offensive ratings than he does. And this is in his career year.

It's not overrated, Magic's shooting is historiclly bad without his 40% for 3. In 3 point shooting league.
Also you pay too much attention to net rating based on half of one season. Same net rating goes up and down by 3 points within 5 games. ( and he didn't play during Magic 3 wins streak, witch is also fluky and based on 3 games).
In mean time it's not like Gordon this year is doing much better ( -2 net rating , better with him off, same is with Fultz and his -1,5 net rating , and even worst with Ross and his -3,2). But nobody talks about it. And it's fine, because it's mid season net rating, on team that is below .500 , so it's expected to be negative.

Last year Evan's 110,6 off rating was second best on a team behind only Vučević.
Last year Evan's net rating was 3rd among serious rotation players.
2017-18 : Evan lead team in offensive rating, was 3rd in net rating by serious rotation guys.

He is also for years one of best Magic players in potential assists. So, once again, he is not payed only for shooting.
With 6,5 potential assists a game it puts him in same category as Cory Joseph ( backup PG), Kriss Dunn ( PG), Derrick White, SGA, Al Horford... Not bad list , don't you think?

Now is he overpayed is complete different story. In vacuum probably yes, but it's a league where Wiggins has max contract, Biyombo makes as much as him and Tobias Harris is one of highest payed players. If corona didn't happen he was bound for over $18M a year by somebody. Just last year Randle, Turner, Rozier, Capela, Bogdanovic landed similar contracts. That's ballpark of his value.

[Def Swami]

Read on Twitter

[Bensational]

Read on Twitter

I feel like it's only a matter of time before Lloyd gets his chance somewhere. He's had exposure to two very different styles from Henny to WeHam.

I will admit that I had hoped for better from his scouting and draft input over the years. It's not like he's failed - Oladipo, Gordon, Payton, Hezonja, Isaac, Bamba, Okeke. Not that we can say he picked or favoured any one of them personally, but he is known for his draft and scouting input, and we've certainly had a type of favouring athletic and defensively minded players whilst he's been here.

Anyway, he has his roots back in Chicago so they might like to keep it in the family, in some ways. Best of luck to him!

[pepe1991]

Read on Twitter

I feel like it's only a matter of time before Lloyd gets his chance somewhere. He's had exposure to two very different styles from Henny to WeHam.

I will admit that I had hoped for better from his scouting and draft input over the years. It's not like he's failed - Oladipo, Gordon, Payton, Hezonja, Isaac, Bamba, Okeke. Not that we can say he picked or favoured any one of them personally, but he is known for his draft and scouting input, and we've certainly had a type of favouring athletic and defensively minded players whilst he's been here.

Anyway, he has his roots back in Chicago so they might like to keep it in the family, in some ways. Best of luck to him!

To be fair, drafting good athletes in sport where you jump and run makes sense and more often than not, when you put those kids in same training camp, ones with best athletic ability will always separate themselfs.
Magic main issue when it comes to drafting is being 1 or 2 spots away from allstar.

2014 - Gordon goes 4th, Embiid 3rd
2015 - Hez 5th, Towns, Russell and Zingis before him
2016 - we draft excellent young player in Sabonis- we trade him for Ibaka
2017- we have 1 win more than Philly , 2 wins more than Kings, they land better picks . One of them gets Tatum ( and botches it) , other gets pretty good young PG in Fox. Saving grace is fact that Isaac is really good.
2018- disaster that we all know everything about.

2018 hurts the most because of win over Dallas.
And ofc, since that, draft lottery is changed and makes tanking pretty usless

[drsd]

Evan Fournier is better than Wes Iwundu. The Magic are better with Iwundu playing the two than Fournier.

A And-one-half


I totally agree with the first point: by miles.

I totally, totally disagree with the second point for one strict reason: Fournier is better at SG than SF for his own considerations.


..

[drsd]

Read on Twitter

A nice Lloyd story:
NBA.com LINK from 2017


Clearly his strengths lie in scouting rather than cap management.


..

[drsd]

NBA Players Agree To 25 Percent Reduction


Well the Magic seems certain to be nowhere near the cap with this statement.


..

Everything is calculated as a percentage of revenue. Players get roughly 50% of the revenue generated by the league. This is why the actual payouts to players can vary from what is stipulated in their contracts. If revenue goes down, the cap will go down. Revenue is in a state of uncertainty at the moment. This is why salaries are being cut. This will not free up any salary cap space.

Well: if the NBA closes out about another 10 games, plus tor minus, their main revenue stream is maintained at 100%: the TVs deals. (( This is THE REASON the league is so desperate to "finish the season", which actually means, "fulfilling the TV contract".

So, let's say teams lose 10% in revenue from the lack of actual hosting of live games, then the reduction on 25% of players salary is a cost savings for ownership.


..

[drsd]

More broadly for next year, with a) the lack of Chinese investment in the NBA - itself projected as a 5-15% hit and the lack of revenue from "selling out games" (no team will sell out all their games next season), collectively it is VERY EASY to project the cap will decline rather markedly. As such, no player will "get paid". I expect the Magic to see Fournier re-up, and that will be basically the end of the FA process. Enniss also could re-up for the same reasons.

Yes Gordon could be traded for a matched-salary. And yes the Magic will need to find replacements for Augustin, Iwundu, and Carter- Williams, but even there, trading Gordon for Schröder and a 2021 1st round draft pick (as rumored) coupled to just resigning Carter-Williams, the Magic roster is basically set.


I would not be surprised to see a roster with a start like this next season.
Fultz/Schröder/Carter-Williams
Fournier/Ross/Ennis
Isaac/Okeke/LLE vet
Aminu/rookie selection/LLE vet
Vučević/Bamba/Birch

[Xatticus]

NBA Players Agree To 25 Percent Reduction


Well the Magic seems certain to be nowhere near the cap with this statement.


..

Well: if the NBA closes out about another 10 games, plus tor minus, their main revenue stream is maintained at 100%: the TVs deals. (( This is THE REASON the league is so desperate to "finish the season", which actually means, "fulfilling the TV contract".

So, let's say teams lose 10% in revenue from the lack of actual hosting of live games, then the reduction on 25% of players salary is a cost savings for ownership.


..

No. The players aren't agreeing to take less money for the sake of it. They are agreeing to take less money in next month's paychecks because they are only entitled to about 50% of the revenue generated by the league and the league revenue for this season is lower than was expected. If the league generates less revenue, the players get less money. If the NBA recoups some of that lost revenue, the players will lose less money. The players' share and the salary cap are negotiated percentages of the league's revenue.

And to be clear, the players have not agreed to take 25% less money. They have been paid throughout the season and we are nearing the end of the season. They are agreeing to take 25% less money on next month's paychecks. I have no idea what percentage of revenue the league has lost up to this point, but player compensation has to be adjusted for these losses.

Short version: No. This will not benefit our cap situation.

[Bensational]

Who's tuning in for The Last Dance today?

[pepe1991]

Who's tuning in for The Last Dance today?

Can't wait to finish job today to watch it