Xatticus wrote:
Ziaire Williams is one that I'd avoid. He is the classic long, tall, smooth, and ineffectual prospect. They look great until you watch them play basketball and realize that none of their tools translate on the floor. I've seen almost no highlights of him at the rim. Only 24% of his field goal attempts came at the rim and he was very poor at finishing those (53%). If he can't get to the rim in college, it will never happen in the NBA. He has a very high turnover rate. He moves alright, but he pulls up at the first opportunity he gets to do so, which yields a lot of long, low-percentage shots. He's doing the defense's job for them. I've just learned over the years that this sort of prospect pretty much never pays off. He shouldn't be entering this year's draft and he wouldn't be getting any attention if he wasn't so highly regarded coming out of high school.
His shot looks good and he has size and length and plays the position hardest to find good players. I have a hard time writing off one's prep career over 20 college games, particularly in this strange year.
Not finishing at the rim is a red flag, but that is teachable and can be somewhat improved with weight training.
The thing with all these high end prospects. They are all young, with a year of a college/pro experience under their belt. The draft has been a crap shoot for a long time, and if you can find attributes like Williams has in the middle of the first round or Boston at the top of the 2nd you got to roll the dice, knowing that it is unlikely to pay off, but if it does, you get a huge boost in surplus talent and output.
Give me a 10% chance at a good starter over a 70% chance of a back of the rotation guy every time. Unless, you are a good team in need of depth, and maybe even then
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